The regression estimates or population for sub-provincial areas in Canada - ARCHIVED

In order to improve the timeliness, accuracy and consistency of population estimates for different geographic areas, Statistics Canada has developed new methods of estimation for sub-provincial areas (census divisions and census metropolitan areas). Beginning with 1982, two sets of population estimates (regression and component based) will be published yearly, appearing 3-4 months and 12-15 months, respectively, from the reference date.

The regression technique uses family allowance recipients as the main symptomatic indicator and where available, additional indicators - reference population from provincial health insurance files and hydro accounts - to derive population change for the current year. The first set is obtained by adding this change to the second set for the previous year produced by the component method, with births and deaths from vital registers, and estimated migration from Revenue Canada taxation files. The two sets were found to be statistically similar with respect to accuracy, though the first set is more timely, and the second provides more details on the components of population change.