Confidence intervals for postcensal population estimates: A case study for local areas - ARCHIVED

This paper presents a technique for developing appropriate confidence intervals around postcensal population estimates using a modification of the ratio-correlation method termed the rank-order procedure. It is shown that the Wilcoxon test can be used to decide if a given ratio-correlation model is stable over time. If stability is indicated, then the confidence intervals associated with the data used in model construction are appropriate for postcensal estimates. If stability is not indicated, the confidence intervals associated with the data used in model construction are not appropriate, and, moreover, likely to overstate the precision of postcensal estimates. Given instability, it is shown that confidence intervals appropriate for postcensal estimates can be derived using the rank-order procedure. An empirical example is provided using county population estimates for Washington state.