Combining link-tracing sampling and cluster sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations: A bayesian-assisted approach - ARCHIVED

Articles and reports: 12-001-X20060029553

Description:

Félix-Medina and Thompson (2004) proposed a variant of Link-tracing sampling in which it is assumed that a portion of the population, not necessarily the major portion, is covered by a frame of disjoint sites where members of the population can be found with high probabilities. A sample of sites is selected and the people in each of the selected sites are asked to nominate other members of the population. They proposed maximum likelihood estimators of the population sizes which perform acceptably provided that for each site the probability that a member is nominated by that site, called the nomination probability, is not small. In this research we consider Félix-Medina and Thompson's variant and propose three sets of estimators of the population sizes derived under the Bayesian approach. Two of the sets of estimators were obtained using improper prior distributions of the population sizes, and the other using Poisson prior distributions. However, we use the Bayesian approach only to assist us in the construction of estimators, while inferences about the population sizes are made under the frequentist approach. We propose two types of partly design-based variance estimators and confidence intervals. One of them is obtained using a bootstrap and the other using the delta method along with the assumption of asymptotic normality. The results of a simulation study indicate that (i) when the nomination probabilities are not small each of the proposed sets of estimators performs well and very similarly to maximum likelihood estimators; (ii) when the nomination probabilities are small the set of estimators derived using Poisson prior distributions still performs acceptably and does not have the problems of bias that maximum likelihood estimators have, and (iii) the previous results do not depend on the size of the fraction of the population covered by the frame.

Issue Number: 2006002
Author(s): Félix-Medina, Martin; Monjardin, Pedro E.

Main Product: Survey Methodology

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PDFDecember 21, 2006