Estimates of Cross-border Shopping, 2006 to 2012 - ARCHIVED

This article provides estimates on the value of cross-border shopping in the United States from 2006 to 2012, on an annual and quarterly basis. The study provides detailed values for overnight and same-day spending in the United States, postal and courier imports and motor vehicle imports. Total cross-border expenditures are compared to the Canadian retail trade sales, to provide a basis of comparison on the magnitude of these expenditures. The extent to which cross-border spending varies with movements in the Canadian/United States exchange rate is also examined. The cross-border estimates are derived from the Canadian System of National Accounts and their underlying survey and administrative data sources. The estimates are based on three different scenarios (low, medium and high) with each scenario based on different statistical assumptions. The low scenario represents the lower-bound estimates for cross-border shopping, while the high scenario represents the upper-bound estimates. The medium scenario is based on assumptions deemed to be the most plausible. All assumptions reflect professional judgement and build upon previous analysis.