Trends in Canadian and American fertility

Canada's total fertility rate has been declining, but the American rate has been rising. In 1999, Canadian fertility hit a record low of 1.52 children per woman, compared with the American rate of 2.08, a difference of more than half a child per woman. Only 20 years ago, this gap was less than one-third of that size.

For almost a century, Canada's population growth rate had been higher than that of the United States. However, Canada's growth is now only about three-quarters of the growth south of the border. Projections indicate that the growth rate in the United States will continue to be higher.

In previous surveys, Canadian and American women had expressed the intention to have the same number of children, on average 2.2 each. However, although young American women have continued to have relatively high fertility levels, fertility among young Canadian women has declined substantially in the last 20 years.

An estimated 60% of the difference in the rates is a result of the declining fertility of Canadian women aged 20 to 29, according to a study published today in the annual Report on the demographic situation in Canada. An additional one-third of the gap is the result of high fertility levels among American females aged 15 to 19. This situation, however, is not new; American teenage fertility rates have been relatively high for years compared with other industrialized countries.

From 1979 to 1999, the fertility of Canadian women aged 20 to 24 decreased nearly 40%, and fertility among those aged 25 to 29 declined about 25%. In the United States, fertility rates among women in these age groups remained relatively stable.

The fertility rate of American women aged 20 to 24 is currently 75% higher than that of Canadian women of the same age. In the case of women aged 25 to 29, the American fertility rate is 15% higher. Fertility rates among women aged 30 and over have increased at nearly the same pace in the two countries. In Canada, this increase did not offset the decline in the fertility rates of younger women.

Why a fertility gap: some hypotheses

In Canada, fertility rates are falling for a number of reasons, including the tendency to delay starting families. This is perhaps the result of economic difficulties experienced by young households or the growing fragility of conjugal relationships, which are often dissolved by divorce or separation. Delaying childbearing often lowers the number of children a couple has.

A key factor in the United States is the traditionally higher fertility of American minorities. However, this study shows that the ethnic makeup of the American population does not entirely explain the differences in fertility. The fertility rate of white non-Hispanic women, the group with the lowest fertility rate in the United States, reached 1.85 children per woman, well above the Canadian rate.

Another factor is that Canadian women use more effective contraceptive methods than American women.

For example, in Canada, among women aged 15 to 19 who use contraceptives, 86% use a pharmaceutical method, primarily the pill, and 14% use a natural or barrier method, mainly the condom. In the United States, only 58% use the pill, and 42% use a barrier. In Canada, the public health care system provides universal and free access to medical services; in the United States, such services can be costly.

Marriage also occurs earlier and more often in the United States, and as a result, women tend to bear children earlier. The average age at first childbirth is nearly 29 in Canada, compared with 27 in the United States. Further, there is some evidence that young people in Canada may be experiencing more difficulty entering the labour market than Americans, and may postpone forming a couple or having children. While unemployment rates were similar for both young Canadians and Americans in the early 1980s, the unemployment rate among young Canadians was consistently higher than among young Americans in the 1990s.

Consequences of low fertility

In 1999, Canada's population growth rate was 8.6 per 1,000, compared with 12.3 in the United States. About 337,200 babies were born in Canada in 1999.

Had Canada's fertility rate been the same as that of the United States, the country would have had an estimated additional 123,000 births, bringing the population growth rate to 12.7 per 1,000.

Because of low birth rates, migration has already become the main contributor to population growth in Canada, a trend expected to continue. Currently, natural increase - the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths - is relatively low, but remains positive in all provinces.

If fertility remains at the current level, deaths are expected to exceed births in Canada in about 20 to 25 years. Population projections in the United States indicate that births will continue to exceed deaths for the next 50 years. Natural increase would account for roughly two-thirds of total annual growth.

Use of home-care services: second study

A second study in this report examines major socio-demographic factors associated with the use of home-care services by elderly people living in private households, using data from the 1996 General Social Survey.

The findings indicate that one-fifth of the senior population living in private households received assistance for everyday housework, grocery shopping, meal preparation or personal care because of long-term health problems.

Among the elderly who received assistance because of a long-term health problem, 42% got it only from informal sources such as family, friends and neighbours; 34% from formal sources, such as paid employees, government or non-government organizations and volunteers; and the remaining 24% from a mix of formal and informal sources.

Living alone or having no surviving children increases the probability of drawing on formal sources of assistance among seniors receiving assistance because of a health problem.

The 2001 issue of Report on the demographic situation in Canada (91-209-XPE, $31) is now available.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Alain Bélanger (613-951-2326; fax: 613-951-2952; belaala@statcan.gc.ca), Demography Division.