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Wednesday, February 19, 2003

Livestock estimates

January 1, 2003

Two years of drought in western Canada have taken their toll on Canada's cattle herd, especially in Alberta. As of January 1, 2003, farmers reported 13.4 million head on their farms, down 2.8% from 13.8 million on January 1, 2002.

Meanwhile, the slowdown in the growth of Canada's hog herd, which began early in 2002, continued throughout the rest of the year. Hog producers reported 14.7 million head on farms as of January 1, 2003, up 2.5% from the previous year. Growth has averaged 5.0% over the past five years.

Farmers also reported 975,600 sheep on their farms as of January 1, 2003, down 1.8% from January 1, 2002.

Livestock inventories

January 1

  Cattle Hogs Sheep and lambs
2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003
'000 head
Canada 13,762 13,372 14,367 14,726 994 976
Atlantic 292 289 390 383 32 33
Quebec 1,286 1,310 4,291 4,280 225 230
Ontario 2,026 2,160 3,525 3,661 266 280
Manitoba 1,245 1,250 2,688 2,870 76 74
Saskatchewan 2,418 2,443 1,180 1,230 117 115
Alberta 5,825 5,220 2,125 2,140 218 187
British Columbia 670 700 168 162 59 57
Note:Figures may not add up to totals because of rounding.

Alberta beef ranchers hit hard by drought

Alberta's beef ranchers have been hit hard by two years of drought. As of January 1, 2003, the province's cattle herd was 10.4% below year-earlier levels, in the wake of dwindling feed supplies and soaring feed prices. Alberta accounts for over 40.0% of the national cattle herd.

Increases in cattle inventories reported in other provinces, fuelled partly by the prospect of strengthening prices for cattle, were not sufficient to offset the declines in Alberta.

Cattle inventories in Saskatchewan rose 1.1%; those in Manitoba were up a modest 0.4% and those in British Columbia climbed 4.5%.

More feeder cattle were shipped to Ontario, where feed supplies were plentiful; as a result, Ontario's inventories increased 6.6%. In Quebec, the cattle herd grew 1.9%.

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Supplies of barley, the primary feed grain in western Canada, plunged because of the drought. In 2002, the harvest in western Canada declined 36.4%, following a 20.7% drop in 2001.

The shortage of feed grains last year forced western farmers to import an unprecedented 2.1 million metric tonnes of grain corn from the United States during the first 11 months of 2002.

The drought also forced many producers to sell or ship their animals to other provinces and to the United States. Exports from Alberta to other provinces almost tripled to 243,200 head from July to December 2002, compared with the same period of 2001.

Cattle shipments from other provinces into Saskatchewan surged to 167,800 head, and shipments into Ontario were up 17.6%.

Trade with the United States was also hit by the drought. From July to December, cattle exports to the United States soared 43.7% to 985,000 head. Saskatchewan accounted for most of this increase in exports, as cattle came from Alberta and were then exported either to other provinces or south of the border.

At the same time, imports virtually ground to a halt. During the last six months of 2002, only 39,500 head of cattle arrived in Canada, less than one-third the level of 141,800 imported during the same six months of 2001. Alberta, which imported 94,900 head in the second half of 2001, got virtually nothing during the same period of 2002.

Breeding herd remains stable despite drought

Despite the drought, Canada has maintained its breeding herd. On January 1, 2003, farmers reported 4.6 million beef cows on their farms, a modest 0.4% decrease.

A 5.8% decline in Alberta's beef cow population was offset by expansion in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec, as some producers held back more heifers as opposed to shipping them for slaughter. Beef calving in the first six months of 2003 is expected to reflect this expansion.

The cattle industry has three distinct types of operation, reflecting the various stages of growth in the animals: cow-calf, feeder-stocker and feeding. The shortage of water and forage, primarily in Alberta and Saskatchewan, forced several cow-calf operators to decrease or sell their herds. Cattle inventories held by cow-calf operators in Alberta declined 11.3%, and national-level inventories of these breeding operations fell 3.4%.

As of January 1, 2003, the number of Canadian beef cattle reported by feeder and stocker/finisher operations (backgrounding) rose 3.3% from 2002, and 14.6% from 2001. Inventories on feeding operations in Alberta tumbled 21.6% to 925,000 head as of January 1, 2003. These operations were particularly hard hit by the drought that resulted in lower feed supplies and higher feed costs.

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During the last six months of 2002, slaughter levels actually fell 3.1% to an estimated 1.9 million cattle. Quebec and Ontario accounted for most of the decrease, which was partly the result of Ontario producers retaining cattle to further herd expansion. Declines in inventories as of January 1, 2003 indicate declining meat production for the year.

Hog inventories: Pace of growth slows

The pace of growth in the hog sector slowed during the last three months of 2002, largely because of lower hog prices and rising feed costs. In addition, expansion was limited by a two-year moratorium on hog barn construction in Quebec, the nation's leading hog-producing province.

The American hog and pork markets have a major impact on the Canadian hog industry. The sharp decline in the American price for hogs since the start of 2002 triggered a drop in hog prices on the Canadian market.

Falling prices in the United States reflect a slowdown in the disposition of pork supplies and a higher slaughter volume. Canadian average hog prices in the second half of 2002 were about 23.0% lower than the same period of 2001.

Available on CANSIM: tables 003-0004 and 003-0030 to 003-0032.

Information on methods and data quality available in the Integrated Meta Data Base: survey number 3460.

The reports Livestock statistics (23-603-XIE, $34/$112), Cattle statistics (23-012-XIE, free), Hog statistics (23-010-XIE, free) and Sheep statistics (23-011-XIE, free) will be available soon.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact the information line (1-800-465-1991) or Robert Plourde (613-951-8716, robert.plourde@statcan.gc.ca), Agriculture Division.



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