Consumer Price Index

The All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 4.6% from February 2002 to February 2003. Energy prices, and especially gasoline prices, were the main factor behind this rise. The 12-month increase in the index is comparable to that of January, which was 4.5%.

The 12-month increase in the CPI excluding energy has seen little variation over the past four months, remaining relatively stable at 3.4% in February after registering 3.5% in the previous three months.

In February, gasoline prices were up 32.1% from February 2002; they had increased 25.1% from January 2002 to January 2003. Fuel oil price increases also contributed to the rise in the energy index in February. The 12-month increase in fuel oil prices climbed from 31.2% in January to 47.8% in February. The base effect will have faded away by next month when the index used as the base for comparison (March 2002) will return to a level comparable to that of September 2001.

The CPI increases from January to February

After a 0.8% increase from December 2002 to January 2003, the CPI rose 0.7% from January to February 2003. The increase was largely due to higher prices for gasoline, women's clothing, travel tours, fuel oil, cigarettes and traveller accommodation. The drop in prices of fresh fruit and fresh vegetables slightly offset these increases.

In February, consumers paid 7.0% more for gasoline than they had in January. This monthly increase was greater than that of the previous month (+6.2%). Price increases ranged from 2.1% in Newfoundland and Labrador to 9.2% in Manitoba. The steady rise in crude oil prices since November 2002 contributed to the price hikes.

The women's clothing index rose 5.8% in February, as several items returned to regular price following discounts in January. Price hikes in this sector were felt most in Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.

Travel tour prices rose 11.0% in February. This monthly increase is in keeping with the changes observed for the same month over the past five years.

The price of fuel oil increased 11.9%. This was the largest increase since the 16.0% increase in September 2000. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the price of fuel oil rose only 1.4%; increases in the other Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario ranged from 11.0% to 15.9%. Price increases in the western provinces were lower, ranging from 5.0% to 6.6%.

Overall, the price of cigarettes in Canada rose 2.1% in February, mainly the result of an increase in manufacturers' prices and of higher taxes on tobacco products in British Columbia.

Travellers also experienced a 5.1% increase in accommodation prices. The largest increase was recorded in Quebec (+10.5%), where the Carnaval de Québec was in full swing.

The price of fresh vegetables fell 5.8% and that of fresh fruit, 4.1%. Price decreases were mainly due to favourable weather conditions in exporting countries, as well as to the simultaneous harvesting of crops from many different countries.

The seasonally adjusted CPI rises

After adjustment for seasonal variations, the All-items CPI increased 0.4% from January to February. The transportation index (+1.6%), led by the increase in gasoline prices, contributed the most to the rise in the index. The indexes for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (+1.0%), shelter (+0.4%), clothing and footwear (+0.4%), household operations and furnishings (+0.2%), as well as for recreation, education and reading (+0.2%) also contributed to this monthly increase. The seasonally adjusted indexes for food and for health and personal care remained stable.

All-items excluding the eight most volatile components

The prices of goods and services included in the All-items index excluding the eight most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada increased 3.1% from February 2002 to February 2003. This increase was a slowdown compared with January (+3.3%). The cumulative effect of several minor factors, rather than that of a major factor, explained this slowdown.

The All-items index excluding the eight most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada increased 0.5% from January to February, after climbing 0.7% in January. Contributing the most to this monthly increase were higher prices for travel tours, women's clothing and traveller accommodation.

Energy

Energy prices continued to rise, jumping 19.7% from February 2002 to February 2003. Higher gasoline prices (+32.1%) accounted for three-quarters of this increase, and higher prices for fuel oil (+47.8%), natural gas (+6.8%) and electricity (+2.0%) accounted for the rest.

From January to February, energy prices rose 4.3%. Aside from electricity prices, which remained unchanged, prices for all components of energy increased. The factors that played the largest role in this increase were still gasoline prices, which were up 7.0% in February. This was the highest monthly increase since March of last year when the gasoline index climbed 9.2%. In March 2002, the price of a barrel of crude oil shot up by almost $6; in February, the increase was approximately $4 a barrel.

Basket update

In January 2003, the weights used to calculate the CPI were updated to take into account changes in consumer spending patterns. Weights that were based up until then on 1996 spending patterns were replaced by those reflecting 2001 spending patterns. For users interested in finding out the effect of the change in weights for analytical purposes, the January CPI was recalculated using 1996 basket weights.

Several other changes have been made to the CPI starting with the January 2003 data. Among these were changes to the CPI seasonally adjusted series. The reference year, however, remains the same (1992=100).

For more information on the basket update or on the treatment of seasonal adjustment, please contact Client Services (1-866-230-2248; 613-951-1539; infounit@statcan.gc.ca), Prices Division.

Available on CANSIM: tables 326-0001 and 326-0016 to 326-0018.

Information on methods and data quality available in the Integrated Meta Data Base: survey number 2301.

Available at 7 am on Statistics Canada's website (http://www.statcan.gc.ca). From the home page, choose Today's news releases from The Daily, then Latest Consumer Price Index release.

The February 2003 issue of the Consumer Price Index (62-001-XIB, $8/$77; 62-001-XPB, $11/$103) is now available.

The March Consumer Price Index will be released on April 23.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Rebecca McDougall (1-866-230-2248; 613-951-9606; fax: 613-951-1539), or Joanne Moreau (613-951-7130), Prices Division.