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Wednesday, July 23, 2003

Leading indicators

June 2003

The composite leading index posted a moderate gain of 0.3% in June, slightly stronger than the growth over the past year. Six of the ten components advanced, one more than in May. The rebound in the stock market in recent months continued, reinforced by a firming of housing and an upturn in services. The only components that fell originated in manufacturing.

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All the indicators of household demand rose or were stable. Housing led the way with a 0.7% gain in June, its best since a 2.2% advance in February. Both housing starts and existing home sales increased, as employment rebounded from two consecutive losses and mortgage rates stayed low. Sales of durable goods, which have been very volatile in recent months due to rebate programs for autos, turned up. Services employment recovered by 0.3% with the easing of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) infections.

The US leading indicator also rose slightly after two months of following a downward trend. However, most of the upturn originated in consumer confidence as the war in Iraq came to an end. Consumer spending remained sluggish due to weak incomes.

All three manufacturing components fell. New orders turned down, while higher inventories reduced the ratio of shipments to stocks for a third straight month. Lumber and industrial goods accounted for much of this weakness, reflecting sluggish export demand and investment spending in North America.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

A more detailed analysis of the components is available on Statistics Canada's website (). From the Canadian statistics page, choose Economic conditions, then click on the banner ad for Canadian economic observer. From that page, choose Issues of CEO, then Composite Index. For more information on the economy, consult the July 2003 issue of Canadian economic observer, Vol. 16, no. 7 (11-010-XIB, $17/$170; 11-010-XPB, $23/$227), available soon.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods and data quality of this release, contact Francine Roy (613-951-3627; francine.roy@statcan.gc.ca) Current Economic Analysis Group.

Leading indicators
  January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 Last month of data available
              % change
Composite leading indicator (1992=100) 180.1 180.5 180.7 180.9 181.0 181.5 0.3
Housing index (1992=100)1 128.5 131.3 130.5 129.1 129.3 130.2 0.7
Business and personal services employment ('000) 2,597 2,610 2,623 2,626 2,622 2,629 0.3
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 6,437 6,512 6,530 6,534 6,583 6,665 1.2
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 111,054 110,533 109,944 109,899 111,227 112,084 0.8
U.S. composite leading indicator (1992=100)3 110.0 110.0 110.1 110.1 110.0 110.1 0.1
Manufacturing              
Average workweek (hours) 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.1 -0.3
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 21,824 21,475 21,129 20,999 21,034 20,917 -0.6
Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 1.80 1.78 1.78 1.77 1.76 1.75 -0.015
Retail trade              
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 1,809 1,822 1,836 1,842 1,846 1,847 0.0
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 7,640 7,634 7,607 7,652 7,643 7,652 0.1
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator 180.9 180.9 180.8 180.8 181.7 183.4 0.9
1 Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service).
2 Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items.
3 The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding.
4 The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month.
5 Difference from previous month.



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Date Modified: 2003-07-23 Important Notices