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Wednesday, July 23, 2003

Private and public investment

2003 (revised intentions)

Total capital spending in Canada on plant, equipment and housing should reach the $212 billion mark in 2003, up 2.2% from the February forecast, according to revised intentions of public and private investment.

Total investment is expected to reach $212.5 billion this year. This would represent a 4.0% increase from 2002, doubling the increase anticipated in first intentions announced in February.

This new strength is coming from established sectors such as manufacturing and conventional oil and gas extraction, while there is still no sign of renewed spending by the information and communication technology industries. The public sector and housing are, nonetheless, contributing over half of the increase.

Housing investment alone is expected to rise 4.2% to $57.4 billion as a result of increases in the two major components: new housing and renovations.

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Businesses, governments and institutions are expected to invest $155.1 billion on plant and equipment, compared with $149.3 billion for 2002. This would be an increase of 3.9% from 2002.


Note to readers

Revised investment intentions are based on a sample survey of 27,000 businesses, governments and institutions. The survey, which was conducted from April to June 2003, had an 80% response rate that covers 88% of the designed sample weight. The coefficient of variation, which measures the precision of the estimated data, is 0.9% at the Canada level. Data in this release are calendarized and expressed in current dollars. Users should take note that data have been revised back to 1999 to account for revisions in the System of National Accounts for software.


Some new strength in business investment

Manufacturing industries now expect an increase of $2.3 billion over 2002, restoring nearly the entire decline in 2002. This increase is coming from motor vehicle manufacturing, paper mills, and aluminum production.

The finance and insurance sector is expecting a billion dollar increase in 2003, this on the heels of $2 billion drop for 2002. Banks and auto leasing take credit for the 10.9% increase in the sector.

While spending in the oil and gas sector appears flat at just over $23 billion, the conventional oil extraction industry is expecting a $2.2 billion increase, largely from east coast off shore work. The non-conventional industry, meanwhile, expects a $2 billion drop as a result of completed projects.

Another strong increase in local government spending

Capital spending by municipalities in 2003 is expected to reach $11.1 billion, up 13.8% over investment levels for 2002. The increase is concentrated in construction spending on infrastructure.

Combined with all other levels of government, spending by departments should reach $21.1 billion in 2002, a 6.7% increase.

Investment in ICT continues to fall

Investment by the information and communication technology (ICT) sector is expected to amount to $10.4 billion in 2003, a 12.2% decline.

A decline of 25.7% is anticipated in the manufacturing component. Goods-related services and intangible services are expected to drop 14.6% and 10.6%, respectively.

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Nine regions expect increases

Most regions are still expecting increases, the largest being Nunavut (+20.2%) and New Brunswick (+11.2%). The largest decrease is in the Northwest Territories (-34.3%), largely due to the completion of diamond mining projects.

Available on CANSIM: tables 029-0005, 029-0007 to 029-0022, 029-0024, 032-0001, 032-0002.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers, including related surveys, 2803 and 2804.

The publication Private and public investment in Canada, revised intentions 2003 (61-206-XIB, $33) will be available soon.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Gilbert Paquette (1-800-571-0494; 613-951-9818; gilbert@statcan.gc.ca) or John Foley (1-877-338-2368; 613-951-1387; foley@statcan.gc.ca), Investment and Capital Stock Division.

Capital spending intentions of private and public organizations
  Preliminary Actual 2002 2003 Intentions 2003 Revised Intentions Intentions 2003 to Revised Intentions 2003 Preliminary Actual 2002 to Revised Intentions 2003
  $ millions % change
Total 204,333.9  207,880.6  212,456.9  2.2 4.0
Plant and equipment 149,251.2 150,476.9 155,053.2 3.0 3.9
Housing 55,082.7 57,403.7 57,403.7 0.0 4.2
North American Industry Classification System sectors          
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 4,067.4 4,127.1 4,090.6 -0.9 0.6
Mining and oil and gas extraction 26,672.0 24,293.2 26,577.9 9.4 -0.4
Utilities 11,310.5 11,232.9 11,995.3 6.8 6.1
Construction 3,412.7 3,603.7 3,591.5 -0.3 5.2
Manufacturing 16,545.4 17,595.6 18,813.0 6.9 13.7
Wholesale trade 3,315.0 3,520.4 3,641.7 3.4 9.9
Retail trade 5,293.2 5,600.6 5,787.0 3.3 9.3
Transportation and warehousing 11,330.8 11,544.4 11,236.9 -2.7 -0.8
Information and cultural industries 9,861.9 9,210.4 8,668.8 -5.9 -12.1
Finance and insurance 10,618.8 11,473.0 11,772.4 2.6 10.9
Real estate and rental and leasing 8,273.8 8,321.3 8,627.6 3.7 4.3
Professional, scientific and technical services 2,979.0 2,761.1 2,998.9 8.6 0.7
Management of companies and enterprises 157.5 156.5 152.6 -2.5 -3.1
Administrative support, waste management and remediation services 658.2 670.2 689.3 2.8 4.7
Educational services 6,015.5 6,057.7 5,712.5 -5.7 -5.0
Health care and social assistance 5,078.0 5,308.5 5,604.0 5.6 10.4
Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,303.7 1,506.8 1,568.2 4.1 20.3
Accommodation and food services 1,335.3 1,203.8 1,133.2 -5.9 -15.1
Other services (except public administration) 1,232.5 1,253.3 1,269.4 1.3 3.0
Public administration 19,789.9 21,036.4 21,122.6 0.4 6.7
Note:Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

Capital spending intentions of private and public organizations
  Capital expenditures
  Year Construction Machinery and equipment Total Intentions  2003 to Revised Intentions 20031 Preliminary Actual 2002 to Revised Intentions  20031
  $ millions % change
Canada1 2002 122,694.3  81,639.6  204,333.9     
  2003 126,122.3  81,758.3  207,880.6     
  2003 128,363.1  84,093.8  212,456.9  2.2 4.0
Newfoundland and Labrador 2002 2,105.8 1,425.1 3,531.0    
  2003 2,273.8 982.8 3,256.6    
  2003 2,422.9 1,262.4 3,685.3 13.2 4.4
Prince Edward Island 2002 390.7 250.3 641.1    
  2003 364.4 254.2 618.6    
  2003 401.2 268.0 669.2 8.2 4.4
Nova Scotia 2002 3,304.3 2,326.2 5,630.5    
  2003 3,567.6 1,760.7 5,328.3    
  2003 3,606.5 1,911.1 5,517.5 3.6 -2.0
New Brunswick 2002 2,047.0 1,349.9 3,397.0    
  2003 2,136.0 1,412.1 3,548.1    
  2003 2,358.8 1,417.0 3,775.8 6.4 11.2
Quebec 2002 23,357.4 15,613.0 38,970.4    
  2003 26,121.0 16,489.9 42,610.9    
  2003 25,588.5 17,232.1 42,820.6 0.5 9.9
Ontario 2002 42,078.2 33,176.1 75,254.3    
  2003 43,465.2 33,618.6 77,083.8    
  2003 43,659.8 34,932.6 78,592.4 2.0 4.4
Manitoba 2002 3,035.3 2,644.7 5,680.0    
  2003 2,919.9 2,849.2 5,769.1    
  2003 2,987.0 2,790.9 5,777.9 0.2 1.7
Saskatchewan 2002 4,268.3 2,212.3 6,480.6    
  2003 3,953.7 2,347.6 6,301.2    
  2003 4,105.3 2,411.9 6,517.2 3.4 0.6
Alberta 2002 26,653.2 14,125.4 40,778.6    
  2003 25,306.6 13,207.5 38,514.1    
  2003 26,608.3 13,303.5 39,911.8 3.6 -2.1
British Columbia 2002 13,933.7 8,129.6 22,063.3    
  2003 14,920.2 8,522.3 23,442.5    
  2003 15,517.0 8,217.0 23,734.0 1.2 7.6
Yukon 2002 198.0 102.3 300.3    
  2003 175.5 92.9 268.5    
  2003 182.5 92.2 274.7 2.3 -8.5
Northwest Territories 2002 1,134.4 243.0 1,377.4    
  2003 704.5 166.0 870.5    
  2003 709.1 195.4 904.5 3.9 -34.3
Nunavut 2002 187.7 42.0 229.6    
  2003 213.7 54.7 268.4    
  2003 216.3 59.6 275.9 2.8 20.2
1 Preliminary Actual 2002, followed by Intentions 2003 and then Revised Intentions 2003.
Note:Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.



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