Demographic statistics

Preliminary population estimates for Canada, the provinces and the territories, as of July 1, 2003 are now available. These are the first estimates based on the 2001 Census counts adjusted for net undercoverage. Net undercoverage includes people who were missed in the Census, and those who were enumerated more than once, or enumerated when they should not have been.

This release provides historical revisions back to 1971. These revised estimates take into account methodological improvements in the estimates of net undercoverage introduced in the 2001 Census, and would mainly impact estimates for 1996 and following years.

The population estimates for July 1, 2003 are considered to be preliminary because the estimates for the components of population change (births, deaths, international and internal migrations) between the 2001 Census and that date are based on data that will be revised.

The census attempts to count every person residing in Canada on Census Day. But as for any statistical studies, errors can occur.

Census counts are affected by two types of coverage error. Undercoverage occurs when people who should have been enumerated are missed. Overcoverage occurs when people are counted more than once, or are counted when they should not be enumerated. The difference between the two is referred to as the net undercoverage. Statistics Canada measure the net undercoverage based on survey and thorough analysis of Census data.

It is possible to improve substantially the accuracy of population estimates by adding the Census net undercoverage. Since 1993, Census counts and net undercoverage estimates are used to prepare demographic estimates.

Nationally, the net undercoverage rate in the 2001 Census was an estimated 3.1 %, compared with 2.4 % in the 1996 Census. Net census undercoverage varies from province to province, and from one age group to another.

Data from the 2001 Census will not be revised for net undercoverage, since there is not enough information to accurately adjust census data at all geographical levels and for small subgroups of the population.

Note: All future releases from the Population Estimates Program will be based on these revised population estimates. These include population by age, sex and marital status for Canada, the provinces and territories; estimates of the number of families; and population by age and sex for census divisions and census metropolitan areas.

The revised population estimates will also serve as the basis for the next updated set of population projections

Available on CANSIM: tables 051-0004 to 051-0006, 051-0008, 051-0009, 051-0013, 051-0017 to 051-0020 and 053-0001.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers, including related surveys, 3231, 3232, 3233, 3601, 3603 and 3604.

For general information or to order data, contact Colette O'Meara (613-951-2320; fax: 613-951-2307; colette.omeara@statcan.gc.ca) or the nearest Statistics Canada Regional Reference Centre. To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of the population estimates, contact Daniel Larrivée (613-951-0694; fax: 613-951-2307; daniel.larrivee@statcan.gc.ca), Demography Division.

For more information about the coverage studies of the 2001 Census, contact Dave Dolson (613-951- 4783; fax: 613-951-0653; dave.dolson@statcan.gc.ca) or Christian Thibault (613- 951-6935; fax: 613-951-0653; christian.thibault@statcan.gc.ca), Survey Methods Division.