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Tuesday, June 15, 2004

Monthly Survey of Manufacturing

April 2004

Canadian manufacturing continued to pick up steam in April. Shipments rose 0.5% to $48.5 billion, extending the string of consecutive gains to five months, the longest since the late 1990s. In addition, robust demand from abroad boosted manufacturers' backlog of unfilled orders. Unfilled orders for April are up a solid 6.6% since the close of 2003.

Despite concerns that Canada's strengthened dollar and the recent boom in petroleum prices would undermine the manufacturing sector, manufacturers have put in a stellar performance during the first four months of 2004. Year-to-date shipments were up 3.1% compared with the same period in 2003, with much of the strength coming from the big-ticket, durable goods sector.

Manufacturers of durable goods setting the pace in 2004 

Shipments of durable goods increased 1.1% to $27.8 billion in April, the third consecutive rise. Recent gains in aerospace and computer manufacturing, coupled with strong demand and soaring prices for wood products and primary metals, contributed to a healthy 4.7% jump in year-to-date shipments of durable goods industries. April shipments of non-durable goods slipped 0.2% to $20.6 billion, following five consecutive monthly gains.

Manufacturing shipments, provinces and territories
  March 2004r April 2004p March to April 2004
  seasonally adjusted
  $ millions % change
Canada 48,213 48,471 0.5
Newfoundland and Labrador 242 247 1.8
Prince Edward Island 129 123 -4.7
Nova Scotia 761 778 2.2
New Brunswick 1,165 1,179 1.1
Quebec 11,398 11,562 1.4
Ontario 24,994 25,154 0.6
Manitoba 1,041 982 -5.7
Saskatchewan 799 737 -7.8
Alberta 4,256 4,312 1.3
British Columbia 3,420 3,389 -0.9
Yukon 1 1 -2.8
Northwest Territories including Nunavut 5 8 47.3
rRevised data.
pPreliminary data.

Two-thirds of the 21 manufacturing industries, representing 82% of total shipments, posted increases in April. Quebec led the six provinces and territories reporting higher shipments. Quebec's shipments rose 1.4% (+$164 million) to $11.6 billion, the fifth increase in a row. Resource-based industries were the main contributors, especially wood products and primary metals.

Ontario and Alberta also stepped up production in April. Led by transportation equipment and machinery manufacturing, shipments in Ontario grew $160 million (+0.6%) to $25.2 billion, following a huge gain in March (+3.8%). Alberta manufacturers posted their ninth consecutive rise in shipments, $56 million (+1.3%) to $4.3 billion. Machinery and petroleum shipments have been on a steady upswing in recent months.


Note to readers

Non-durable goods industries include food, beverage and tobacco products, textile mills, textile product mills, clothing, leather and allied products, paper, printing and related support activities, petroleum and coal products, chemicals and plastic and rubber products.

Durable goods industries include wood products, non-metallic mineral products, primary metals, fabricated metal products, machinery, computer and electronic products, electrical equipment, appliances and components, transportation equipment, furniture and related products and miscellaneous manufacturing.

Unfilled orders are a stock of orders that will contribute to future shipments assuming that the orders are not cancelled.

New orders are those received whether shipped in the current month or not. They are measured as the sum of shipments for the current month plus the change in unfilled orders. Some people interpret new orders as orders that will lead to future demand. This is inappropriate since the new orders variable includes orders that have already been shipped. The month-to-month change in new orders may be volatile, particularly if the previous month's change in unfilled orders is closely related to the current month's change.

Not all orders will be translated into Canadian factory shipments because portions of large contracts can be subcontracted out to manufacturers in other countries.


On the jobs front, manufacturing employment edged up 12,000 in May, following a slight increase in April (+3,600), continuing a period of little change that began during the fall of 2003, according to the latest Labour Force Survey.

Shipments of wood products hit a record high

Continued strong demand in the construction sector and soaring prices were the forces behind record high shipments of wood products in April. Leading all industries, shipments of wood products hit $3.1 billion, up 4.3%. Lumber prices increased 2.3% for the month, and have jumped 14% in the first four months of the year. The number of building permits issued in Canada and the United States continued to rise in April, promising another busy summer of construction.

Aerospace manufacturers chalked up their fourth increase in production in the last five months, a positive sign for the beleaguered industry. Production of aerospace products and parts rose 7.6% to $1.2 billion, the highest level since September 2001.

A recent run-up in petroleum prices and strengthened demand for automobiles in the United States contributed to higher shipments of petroleum and coal products (+1.8%) and motor vehicles (+1.0%), rounding out the top four industries that posted increases in April.

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Big jump in raw material inventories

Manufacturers expressed further confidence in the economy, as many bolstered their inventories of raw materials in April. A steady stream of new orders in recent months contributed to a 1.4% rise in raw material inventories to $25.8 billion, as many manufacturers readied their factories for future production. Raw material inventories stood at their highest level since last summer.

Goods-in-process and finished-product inventories also increased in April. Goods-in-process inventories totalled $13.3 billion, up 0.9%. Finished products recouped from March's decline (-0.5%), rising 0.6% to $20.3 billion. The trend for finished-product inventories has been improving in recent months, following an extended period of inventory reduction.

Led by increases in the fabricated metal products (+3.6%), motor vehicles (+8.5%) and petroleum and coal products (+3.3%) industries, total inventories expanded 1.0% to $59.4 billion in April, the fourth straight rise.

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Manufacturers keep the inventory-to-shipment ratio in check

In April, the inventory-to-shipment ratio rose marginally to 1.23 from March's 1.22. March's level was the lowest on record since the start of the current series in 1992. The recent gain in shipments coupled with a slower build-up of inventories has contributed to the improvement of the inventory-to-shipment ratio in 2004.

Shipments and finished-product inventories increased at about the same pace in April, contributing to a stable finished-product inventory-to-shipment ratio of 0.42. The ratio is a key measure of the time, in months, that would be required to exhaust inventories if shipments were to remain at their current level.

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New orders continue to flow

Several contract signings in April contributed to the fifth successive rise in new orders. Manufacturers continued to fill their books: New orders jumped 2.4% to $49.4 billion, following March's 3.2% advance. Strong demand at home and from abroad have contributed to a positive trend for new orders since August 2003.

The aerospace and fabricated metal products industries reported sizable gains in April of 140.5% and 8.2%, respectively.

Manufacturers' backlog of unfilled orders improves

A good sign of shipments to come, manufacturers reported a 2.6% increase in unfilled orders to $37.3 billion. This is the fourth increase in a row and the longest string of consecutive increases since 1999.

Unfilled orders, which had been in a steady decline since the high tech crash and the general slowdown of the global economy in 2001, have shown a modest recovery in 2004. In December, orders bottomed out at just over $35 billion. Manufacturers have since added $2.3 billion to their books in the first four months of the year.

Wide-ranging increases in unfilled orders were reported in April, led by fabricated metal products (+9.6%), machinery (+3.1%) and aerospace products and parts (+1.0%).

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Available on CANSIM: tables 304-0014 and 304-0015.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 2101.

The April 2004 issue of the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (31-001-XIE, $17/$158) will be available soon.

Data for shipments by province in greater detail than normally published may be available on request.

The last year in which Monthly Survey of Manufacturing data were benchmarked to the Annual Survey of Manufactures was 2001.

Data from the May 2004 Monthly Survey of Manufacturing will be released on July 15, 2004.

For general information or to order data, contact the dissemination officer (1-866-873-8789; 613-951-9497; fax: 613-951-9499; manufact@statcan.gc.ca). To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of the release, contact Russell Kowaluk (613-951-0600, kowarus@statcan.gc.ca), Manufacturing, Construction and Energy Division.

Shipments, inventories and orders in all manufacturing industries
  Shipments Inventories Unfilled orders New orders Inventories- to-shipments ratio
  seasonally adjusted
  $ millions % change $ millions % change $ millions % change $ millions % change  
April 2003 45,287 -3.3 61,789 0.3 38,866 -2.5 44,300 -4.0 1.36
May 2003 44,879 -0.9 61,243 -0.9 37,811 -2.7 43,824 -1.1 1.36
June 2003 44,569 -0.7 60,481 -1.2 37,576 -0.6 44,335 1.2 1.36
July 2003 45,735 2.6 60,129 -0.6 37,020 -1.5 45,179 1.9 1.31
August 2003 43,290 -5.3 59,541 -1.0 36,433 -1.6 42,702 -5.5 1.38
September 2003 45,818 5.8 59,307 -0.4 36,838 1.1 46,223 8.2 1.29
October 2003 45,373 -1.0 58,748 -0.9 35,984 -2.3 44,519 -3.7 1.29
November 2003 44,993 -0.8 58,708 -0.1 35,204 -2.2 44,213 -0.7 1.30
December 2003 45,678 1.5 58,301 -0.7 35,020 -0.5 45,493 2.9 1.28
January 2004 45,801 0.3 58,572 0.5 35,931 2.6 46,712 2.7 1.28
February 2004 46,360 1.2 58,700 0.2 36,328 1.1 46,757 0.1 1.27
March 2004 48,213 4.0 58,834 0.2 36,373 0.1 48,258 3.2 1.22
April 2004 48,471 0.5 59,424 1.0 37,329 2.6 49,427 2.4 1.23

Manufacturing industries except motor vehicle, parts and accessories
  Shipments Inventories Unfilled orders New orders
  seasonally adjusted
  $ millions % change $ millions % change $ millions % change $ millions % change
April 2003 36,760 -3.1 58,565 0.2 37,221 -2.5 35,808 -3.9
May 2003 36,382 -1.0 58,053 -0.9 36,223 -2.7 35,383 -1.2
June 2003 36,263 -0.3 57,338 -1.2 35,984 -0.7 36,024 1.8
July 2003 36,823 1.5 56,984 -0.6 35,446 -1.5 36,285 0.7
August 2003 35,982 -2.3 56,508 -0.8 34,819 -1.8 35,356 -2.6
September 2003 37,482 4.2 56,143 -0.6 35,213 1.1 37,876 7.1
October 2003 37,087 -1.1 55,638 -0.9 34,303 -2.6 36,177 -4.5
November 2003 37,013 -0.2 55,615 -0.0 33,474 -2.4 36,183 0.0
December 2003 37,445 1.2 55,234 -0.7 33,255 -0.7 37,226 2.9
January 2004 37,579 0.4 55,507 0.5 34,130 2.6 38,454 3.3
February 2004 38,248 1.8 55,485 -0.0 34,465 1.0 38,582 0.3
March 2004 39,567 3.5 55,463 -0.0 34,390 -0.2 39,493 2.4
April 2004 39,742 0.4 55,911 0.8 35,229 2.4 40,581 2.8



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Date Modified: 2004-06-15 Important Notices