Study: Demographic trends in Canada's communities

One-third of all 2,607 individual communities in Canada had a population that was in decline in the two decades between 1981 and 2001, according to a new study.

However, these communities contained only 9% of Canada's population in 2001. In addition, only 5% of Canada's population lived in a declining community that was also located within a region that had a decreasing population.

This study, based on census data, showed that the increase or decrease of a community's population often reflected the characteristics of the larger region within which the community was located.

Communities and regions that grew were those that experienced population growth in at least three of the four inter-censal periods between 1981 and 2001. Declining communities and regions were those that experienced a population decline in at least three of the four.

Two-thirds of declining communities were located within declining regions, while only 17% were located within growing regions. In contrast, of the one-third of all communities that grew between 1981 and 2001, 77% were located within growing regions and only 12% within declining regions.

In comparison, 76% of Canada's population lived in a growing community located within a region that was also growing.

The study found that a high share of employment in agriculture was associated with declining communities. The agriculture sector is shedding jobs due to the ongoing replacement of workers with machinery.

Growing communities within growing regions had a low share of employment in agriculture. Moreover, declining communities within growing regions (that is, those communities that are particularly disadvantaged in that they buck the positive trend of their host region) had a very high intensity of employment in agriculture.

Growing communities within growing regions were the only communities that had a lower than average share of employment in manufacturing related to natural resources. Conversely, communities whose populations were declining even though they were within growing regions had a higher than average share of this employment.

This suggests that rural communities are either not developing local manufacturing activity based on the natural resources found in their local area. Or, it could mean that manufacturing is being developed, but it is not providing enough jobs to stem the population loss from rural communities.

Larger communities tend to grow faster than smaller communities. Across Canada, a majority of communities with 3,000 or more residents had a population growth of 5% or more between 1981 and 2001. On the other hand, a majority of communities with fewer than 1,000 residents experienced a population decline of 5% or more over the same period.

The study also found that community population growth or decline was influenced by the rural–urban nature of the surrounding region. In urban regions, 97% of communities were located within a growing region.

In rural regions situated close to urban areas, 63% of communities were located within a growing region. In contrast, in rural northern regions, 64% of communities were located in a declining region.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3901.

The Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin, Vol. 6, no. 3, entitled Community Demographic Trends within their Regional Context (21-006-XIE, free) is now available online. From the Our products and services page under Browse our Internet publications, choose Free then Agriculture.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Ray Bollman (613-951-3747; ray.bollman@statcan.gc.ca), Agriculture Division.