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Wednesday, June 29, 2005

Study: Exploring crime patterns in Canada

1962 to 2003

A new study that explores statistical associations between selected social and economic factors and different types of crime has found that changes in rates of break and enter appeared to be associated with shifts in the age structure of Canada's population.

However, this age shift (predominantly the declining proportion of the population under age 25) was not associated with shifts in the rates of three other crimes examined in the study: robbery, homicide or motor vehicle theft.

This result supports previous research which indicates that shifts in the age composition of the population make only a small contribution to the overall crime drop.

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Since the early 1970s, Canadian fertility rates have remained low. This has resulted in a decline in the proportion of the total population represented by young people aged 15 to 24, the group which has the highest age-specific rates of offending. At the same time, the share of the population aged 35 and over has risen as the Canadian population ages.

Initial findings from the study found the decline in this population of youth to be associated only with a drop in rates of breaking and entering. Between 1991 and 2000, rates of property crime fell 34%, driven in part by reductions in breaking and entering.


Note to readers

This research paper provides an overview of patterns in crime data between 1962 and 2003, with a particular focus on the decline in crime throughout the 1990s.

It also explores the statistical relationship between four types of crime (homicide, robbery, breaking and entering, and motor vehicle theft) and various macro-level demographic and economic changes.

These crime types were chosen for analysis because of their relative seriousness and their impact on society. These offence types have been consistently reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting Surveyover time and are less likely than other types of offences to be subject to changes in legislation and police charging practices, or the reporting behaviour of victims.

Analysis is based on police-reported crime data from the Incident-based Uniform Crime Reporting Survey, institution data on the control and sale of alcoholic beverages in Canada, as well as data from the Consumer Price Index and the Labour Force Survey.


The study found no statistically significant association between shifts in age composition and rates of robbery, motor vehicle theft or homicide, after taking into account the effects of unemployment, inflation and per capita alcohol consumption.

These findings suggest that for some types of crime, other factors may have a stronger association than the share of young people in the population.

Marked decline in crime rates throughout the 1990s

Overall, there was a marked decline in overall police-reported crime rates throughout the 1990s.

This decrease, in large part, resulted from a reduction in property crime, especially among youth and to a lesser extent, from reductions in violent crime, particularly assault and sexual assault.

Between 1991 and 2000, rates of crime reported by police fell 26%, or an average of 2% per year. Property crime fell 34% over this nine-year period, and other Criminal Code offences such as mischief and disturbing the peace decreased by 17%.

The downward trend in violent crime began in 1993, two years later than the drop in property crime. From 1993 to 2000, the overall rate of violent crime dropped by 9%.

Homicide rates appear to vary with unemployment, alcohol consumption

During the past four decades, years with higher rates of per capita alcohol consumption and unemployment tended to be associated with higher rates of homicide.

Results of this study suggest that there is a small, yet statistically significant association between homicide, alcohol consumption and unemployment such that when rates of alcohol consumption and unemployment increase, so too does homicide.

Alcohol use has previously been associated more often with violent crime than property crime because of the disinhibiting effect it has on cognition and perceptions. Likewise, unemployment has been associated with stress, exclusion and social withdrawal.

Periods of inflation appear to be associated with financially-motivated crimes

Results of this study suggest that, at the macro-level, rates of crime for some offences may move in tandem with changes in social and economic conditions.

Specifically, results from this study suggest a small, yet statistically significant, association between inflation and rates of financially motivated crimes, such as robbery, breaking and entering and motor vehicle theft.

In other words, even when the effects of unemployment, age structure of the population and per capita rates of alcohol consumption were taken into account, inflation appeared to be associated with rates of robbery and motor vehicle theft.

Inflation in Canada rose between 1971 and 1975 and again between 1978 and 1981. Financially-motivated crimes also grew during these inflationary periods. Throughout the 1990s, when inflation rates were relatively stable, crime rates declined.

However, the study pointed to several limitations, including not having exhaustive inputs to the statistical model covering the many socio-demographic changes in society that some literature suggests may be associated with the crime types examined.

In addition, long-term data are not available on the extent and interactions among psycho-social elements that may be associated with an individual's decision to engage in crime.

Nor are long-term data available on the range of characteristics at the individual, family and neighbourhood level that have been shown to be correlated with crime patterns including, but not limited to, attachment to school, victimization, low self-control and poor self-esteem.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3302.

The report Exploring Crime Patterns in Canada (85-561-MIE2005005, free), which is part of the Crime and Justice Research Paper Series is now available online. From the Our products and services page, under Browse our Internet publications, choose Free, then Justice.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts or methods of this release, contact Client Services (1-800-387-2231; 613-951-9023) at the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics.



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