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Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Leading indicators

November 2005

The leading index rose by 0.3% in November, after a solid 0.5% gain in October. Business investment demand remained strong, helping all three manufacturing components rise in unison for the first time since March 2004. However, households were more hesitant to spend, and this accounted for the increase in the number of components falling from one in October to two in November.

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New orders rose for the third straight month, with machinery and metals again breaking their records set earlier this year. Investment spending in the third quarter rose 10% in volume from a year earlier, its largest gain since 1998.

Manufacturers also needed more labour inputs. They extended the average workweek for a third straight month, before boosting employment in November for one of the few times this year. Manufacturing demand also was partly met by reducing inventories, which boosted the ratio of shipments to stocks for the first time this year.

Retail sales of durable goods was the weakest sector of household spending, down 1.5%, its first drop in nine months and the largest since January 2004. The trend of auto sales was dampened by higher energy prices. The housing index levelled off after falling in October for the first time in seven months. Furniture and appliance sales eked out a 0.3% increase.

The US leading indicator improved after the passing of hurricane Katrina, improving from no change to a 0.2% gain. As in Canada, the components related to manufacturing and labour markets contributed the most to this gain.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

A more detailed analysis of the components is available on our Web site. From the Canadian Statistics page, choose National Accounts, then click on the banner ad for Canadian Economic Observer. From that page, choose Issues of CEO, then Composite Index. For more information on the economy, consult the December issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 18, no. 12 (11-010-XIB, $19/$182).

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods and data quality of this release, contact Francine Roy (613-951-3627; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Leading indicators
  June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 Last month of data available
              % change
Composite leading indicator (1992=100) 204.9 205.7 206.6 207.7 208.7 209.4 0.3
Housing index (1992=100)1 142.9 145.6 146.0 146.6 145.8 145.8 0.0
Business and personal services employment ('000) 2,625 2,631 2,650 2,659 2,666 2,673 0.3
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 9,632 9,783 9,994 10,323 10,478 10,662 1.8
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 138,310 137,792 137,649 137,464 137,520 137,472 -0.0
US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 124.6 124.9 125.0 125.3 125.3 125.6 0.2
Manufacturing              
Average workweek (hours) 38.2 38.3 38.3 38.4 38.5 38.6 0.3
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 25,444 25,598 25,365 25,528 25,766 25,894 0.5
Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 1.85 1.84 1.83 1.82 1.82 1.83 0.015
Retail trade              
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 2,215 2,236 2,247 2,252 2,260 2,266 0.3
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 7,929 7,995 8,081 8,179 8,229 8,106 -1.5
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator 207.3 206.8 208.8 210.6 209.9 210.8 0.4
1.Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service).
2.Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items.
3.The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding
4.The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month.
5.Difference from previous month.


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Date Modified: 2005-12-13 Important Notices