Study: Demographic changes across an urban-to-rural gradient

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The growth in Canada's population during the past 30 years has been concentrated in the nation's largest metropolitan areas, and in rural areas on which these urban areas have a strong influence, according to a new report.

In general, rates of growth are weaker as the degree of rurality increases.

The report also found that migration from one part of the country to another was a key factor behind these varying growth patterns.

The most urbanized areas, except for Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver, experienced strong population growth as well as significant gains resulting from interregional migration. This was also the case with rural regions that had a strong metropolitan influence.

The most rural regions experienced weak demographic growth, and in some cases their population declined. This occurred despite the fact that their fertility was higher than other regions. Migration was in general less favourable to these regions.

The strong growth in Canada's three largest urban centres, Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver, has been due largely to the high numbers of international immigrants who decided to settle there.

The report found that the concentration of newcomers in these three big urban centres has helped increase the gap between them and the rest of the country in terms of ethnocultural diversity.

Also, interregional migration affected the age structure of the different regions, partially due to the movement of young adults toward the largest urban centres.

Population in metropolitan areas rose at three times the pace of rural areas

Between 1971 and 2001, the population living in metropolitan areas jumped by 45%, more than three times the rate of growth of only 13% in rural areas.

However, there were important differences in rates of growth among various types of urban and rural areas. The areas that experienced the strongest growth were either the most heavily populated metropolitan areas, or the rural areas with a strong metropolitan influence.

For example, there are six census metropolitan areas with populations of between 500,000 and 1.1 million, and these had a growth rate of 55% combined between 1971 and 2001. This was just slightly faster than the growth rate of 52% in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver combined. These were the fastest growth rates in the nation.

In rural areas that were strongly influenced by metropolitan areas the population rose by 47%. This was faster than rates for medium and small urban areas.

For the other rural areas, demographic growth was considerably below the national average of 37%. In fact, it was negative in the regions without any metropolitan influence. These rural regions experienced a decline in their population over the 30-year period.

The study also found that strong population growth in the largest metropolitan areas appeared to depend on growth in their peripheral municipalities.

During this period, the population in the peripheral municipalities of the largest urban centres increased by more than 100%, four times the rate of growth of only 23% in the central municipalities. This phenomenon illustrates urban spread, which consists of a higher growth around, compared to within, the central municipalities.

Fertility rates lowest in the largest metropolitan areas

In 1971, every woman had slightly over 2.1 children, on average, just above what is known as the "replacement level". By early 2000, it had declined to about 1.5. In fact, 1971 was the last time fertility surpassed the replacement level.

The study found that fertility was lowest in the largest metropolitan areas and tended to rise steadily with the degree of rurality.

In fact, if population increases between 1971 and 2001 had depended only on fertility, the rural areas would have grown at a faster pace than the metropolitan areas.

Migration played a key role for demographic growth

The areas with the highest increase in their population all experienced a large number of migrants coming there to settle. In the three largest urban centres of the country, Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver, population growth came mostly from international immigration over the last 30 years.

This sustained immigration, along with the diversification of the immigrant's origins, contributed to the ethnocultural diversity in these three large regions. The percentage of visible minorities, of allophones, and of people with religious denominations other than Christian, is higher there than in all the other types of regions.

The strong growth observed in the other metropolitan areas with more than 500,000 inhabitants and in the rural areas with strong metropolitan influence was supplemented by gains in their migratory exchanges with the rest of the country.

The propensity of young adults from rural areas to move to the largest urban centres, along with the inverse trend for older adults, affected the age structure of the various types of areas. The proportion of seniors is lower in the largest metropolitan centres than in most of the other types of regions.

The research paper "Demographic changes in Canada from 1971 to 2001 across an urban-to-rural gradient" (91F0015MWE2007008, free) is now available in the report Demographic Documents from the Publications module of our website.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Client Services (toll-free 1-866-767-5611 or 613 951-2320; fax: 613 951-2307; demography@statcan.gc.ca), Demography Division.