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The rate of decline of the composite index accelerated from 0.5% in December to 0.8% in January. This was the largest and most widespread decrease since the index turned down in September. Among the 10 components, 6 fell, 1 was unchanged and 3 increased.
The housing index contracted by 7.0% in January, its largest monthly decline since June 1990. Both existing home sales and housing starts have fallen sharply since last October. Housing starts are almost 50% below their highs touched in the spring of 2008, with the largest losses in Western Canada.
Still, consumer spending accounted for two of the three components that expanded. Despite the slump in housing demand, purchases of furniture and appliances rose slowly. Sales of other durable goods grew 0.2%, and auto sales in January recovered some of their fourth-quarter losses.
The two indicators of manufacturing demand fell in unison, even before extensive shutdowns were implemented in the auto industry. The ratio of shipments to inventories declined again, as firms could not cut production as fast as sales were falling. New orders swung from an increase to a 3.6% decline as exports turned down. The US leading indicator fell for the 17th straight month.
The financial indicators remained divided. The Toronto stock market posted a fifth consecutive decline. However, the money supply (+1.5%) continued to expand.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the March 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 3 (11-010-XWE, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| August 2008 | September 2008 | October 2008 | November 2008 | December 2008 | January 2009 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 230.0 | 229.4 | 228.4 | 227.0 | 225.8 | 223.9 | -0.8 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 134.6 | 133.7 | 130.0 | 122.9 | 117.3 | 109.1 | -7.0 |
| Business and personal services employment (thousands) | 2,949 | 2,953 | 2,953 | 2,948 | 2,946 | 2,935 | -0.4 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 14,097 | 13,660 | 12,669 | 11,630 | 10,709 | 9,694 | -9.5 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 172,897 | 174,030 | 176,086 | 178,642 | 181,670 | 184,328 | 1.5 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 123.9 | 123.6 | 123.2 | 122.5 | 121.8 | 121.4 | -0.3 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.7 | 37.6 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 0.0 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 28,474 | 28,023 | 27,678 | 27,834 | 28,823 | 27,799 | -3.6 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.73 | -0.025 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,881 | 2,910 | 2,936 | 2,951 | 2,956 | 2,962 | 0.2 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,711 | 9,702 | 9,654 | 9,685 | 9,727 | 9,748 | 0.2 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 229.9 | 227.3 | 225.1 | 223.2 | 223.5 | 220.4 | -1.4 |
