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The composite leading index rose by 1.1% in September, its fourth straight gain, while August was revised up from 1.1% to 1.2%. In September, 7 of the 10 components advanced, led again by the stock market and the housing index, while 2 components declined, the same as the month before.
The housing index rose 4.1%, its fifth consecutive increase. However, the advance spread from existing home sales to housing starts in September, which posted their largest gains since March 2008. The rally in housing demand was reflected in furniture and appliance sales, which leveled off after seven straight declines. Consumer spending on other durable goods continued to expand as employment firmed over the summer.
The stock market recorded its sixth increase in a row, after leading the retreat last autumn. The increase was led by metals and energy stocks.
In September, two of the three manufacturing indicators advanced. The ratio of shipments to inventories posted its first back-to-back increases since March 2007. While inventories continued to decline, the drop in shipments slowed to 0.2%. The average workweek lengthened slowly but steadily, a precursor to September's rebound in factory jobs. New orders for durable goods retreated slightly, after a surge of auto assemblies lifted orders by a record pace in July. The outlook for export demand was boosted by a 1.0% gain in the US leading index, as housing and industrial demand recovered slowly from prolonged slumps.
Employment in business and personal services remained the most persistently weak component, posting a 0.4% drop after a year of declines or no growth. Both components fell in September, but the largest drops so far this year have been in business services.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the November 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 11 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| April 2009 | May 2009 | June 2009 | July 2009 | August 2009 | September 2009 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 213.9 | 213.7 | 213.9 | 215.2 | 217.8 | 220.2 | 1.1 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 97.0 | 98.0 | 102.8 | 108.2 | 112.1 | 116.7 | 4.1 |
| Business and personal services employment ('000) | 2,914 | 2,914 | 2,905 | 2,897 | 2,891 | 2,880 | -0.4 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 8,770 | 9,047 | 9,383 | 9,915 | 10,345 | 10,759 | 4.0 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 191,631 | 193,037 | 193,999 | 195,924 | 198,081 | 200,027 | 1.0 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 119.7 | 119.7 | 120.0 | 120.5 | 121.4 | 122.6 | 1.0 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 36.3 | 36.5 | 36.6 | 36.7 | 36.8 | 37.0 | 0.5 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 22,017 | 19,505 | 17,885 | 16,948 | 18,410 | 17,922 | -2.7 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.54 | 1.56 | 1.58 | 0.025 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,881 | 2,850 | 2,825 | 2,813 | 2,807 | 2,808 | 0.0 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,254 | 9,200 | 9,200 | 9,387 | 9,431 | 9,517 | 0.9 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 212.1 | 217.8 | 218.0 | 217.9 | 223.4 | 223.8 | 0.2 |
