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Leading indicators

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October 2010 (Previous release)

The composite index rebounded 0.2% in October from a 0.2% dip in September. Of the 10 components, 6 advanced and 3 fell, versus 4 increases and 5 decreases the month before, while 1 was unchanged in both months. The financial components posted the largest gains, led by the stock market, while housing remained the weakest sector.

Composite leading indicator

The smoothed version of the Toronto stock market rose 1.5% in October, its largest monthly gain since the spring. Natural resources have led the recent rally, notably metals, reflecting rising prices on commodity markets. As well, the money supply expanded at a steady pace.

Manufacturing was mixed. The ratio of shipments to inventories eked out a small gain after no change the month before, when inventories rose for the first time since 2008. The rate of decline of new orders slowed markedly. The average workweek was unchanged after a drop in September.

Housing continued to dampen household spending. The housing index fell for the sixth straight month, as renewed weakness in housing starts offset a levelling off of sales. The slump in housing was reflected in the fourth consecutive decline for furniture and appliance sales. Demand for other durable goods rose slowly, led by autos.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the December 2010 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 23, no. 12 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Francine Roy (613-951-3627) or Philip Cross (613-951-9162) or Cindy Bloskie (613-951-3634; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Table 1

Leading indicators
  May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 Last month of data available
              % change
Composite leading indicator (1992=100) 239.1 240.6 242.0 243.4 243.0 243.6 0.2
Housing index (1992=100)1 136.4 132.9 128.0 123.3 119.1 117.1 -1.7
Business and personal services employment ('000) 2,955 2,967 2,977 2,988 2,986 2,996 0.3
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 11,747 11,787 11,804 11,779 11,811 11,993 1.5
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 215,511 216,766 217,709 218,589 219,942 220,982 0.5
US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 131.2 131.9 132.5 133.0 133.1 133.4 0.2
Manufacturing              
Average workweek (hours) 36.7 36.7 36.8 36.8 36.6 36.6 0.0
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 21,986 22,406 23,082 24,426 23,942 23,926 -0.1
Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 1.84 1.87 1.90 1.92 1.92 1.93 0.015
Retail trade              
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 2,957 2,969 2,951 2,939 2,918 2,899 -0.7
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 9,979 9,931 9,888 9,990 10,074 10,094 0.2
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator 242.9 240.8 244.2 245.7 241.4 245.8 1.8
Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service).
Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items.
The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding.
The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month.
Difference from previous month.