Leading indicators

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July 2011 (Previous release)

The composite leading index rose 0.2% in July after a 0.1% gain in June. In July, 6 of the 10 components advanced, 1 more than the previous month. In particular, household demand was firm, reflecting the steady gains in the trend of employment. These gains were partly offset by declines in the stock market.

Furniture and appliance sales rose 1.2%, their largest monthly advance of the recovery. Spending on other durable goods rebounded 0.1%, as auto sales remained slow. The growth of services employment was driven by gains in personal services.

The manufacturing sector showed some improvement in new orders, which recovered 3.4% after a dip the month before. However, the average workweek declined again, while the ratio of shipments to inventories fell due to the first drop in shipments since November 2010 and higher stocks.

The Toronto stock market trended down by 1.7%, its largest monthly decline since 2009.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the September 2011 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 24, no. 9 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.