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July 2011 (Previous release)

The composite leading index rose 0.2% in July after a 0.1% gain in June. In July, 6 of the 10 components advanced, 1 more than the previous month. In particular, household demand was firm, reflecting the steady gains in the trend of employment. These gains were partly offset by declines in the stock market.

Furniture and appliance sales rose 1.2%, their largest monthly advance of the recovery. Spending on other durable goods rebounded 0.1%, as auto sales remained slow. The growth of services employment was driven by gains in personal services.

The manufacturing sector showed some improvement in new orders, which recovered 3.4% after a dip the month before. However, the average workweek declined again, while the ratio of shipments to inventories fell due to the first drop in shipments since November 2010 and higher stocks.

The Toronto stock market trended down by 1.7%, its largest monthly decline since 2009.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the September 2011 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 24, no. 9 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Table 1 Leading indicators

Table 1

Leading indicators
	February 2011	March 2011	April 2011	May 2011	June 2011	July 2011	Last month of data available
							% change
Composite leading indicator (1992=100)	250.2	251.7	253.5	255.2	255.5	256.1	0.2
Housing index (1992=100)¹	125.5	128.0	127.7	127.8	128.4	128.1	-0.2
Business and personal services employment ('000)	2,960	2,956	2,968	2,979	2,990	3,008	0.6
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000)	13,352	13,643	13,841	13,913	13,863	13,625	-1.7
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)²	224,740	225,598	226,226	226,271	226,722	227,157	0.2
US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)³	136.1	137.0	138.0	138.6	139.2	139.9	0.5
Manufacturing
Average workweek (hours)	37.3	37.3	37.4	37.4	37.2	37.1	-0.3
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)⁴	23,571	23,388	23,546	25,513	25,452	26,311	3.4
Shipments/inventories of finished goods⁴	1.94	1.95	1.96	1.97	1.96	1.94	-0.02⁵
Retail trade
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)⁴	2,890	2,893	2,905	2,926	2,959	2,995	1.2
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)⁴	10,397	10,384	10,371	10,381	10,366	10,375	0.1
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator	253.2	256.2	255.1	258.3	254.7	256.0	0.5

Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service).

Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items.

The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding.

The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month.

Difference from previous month.