Production of principal field crops, July 2014
Canadian farmers expect production to return to more normal levels in 2014 for wheat, canola and corn for grain following record levels set in 2013. Soybean production is anticipated to increase to another record level this year, as farmers reported cultivating nearly a million additional acres.
At the time of the survey, farmers on the Prairies reported that excessive rains in late June were likely to affect harvestable area.
At the national level, total wheat production is expected to reach 27.7 million tonnes in 2014, down 26.2% from 2013.
This anticipated decrease is the result of 2.6 million fewer harvested acres, and an overall yield decline of 17.6% to 44.0 bushels per acre.
In Saskatchewan, total wheat production is expected to decline 26.9% from 2013 to 13.4 million tonnes. This decrease is the result of 1.4 million fewer acres harvested and a lower yield (-19.0%) to 38.8 bushels per acre.
Production decreases are also expected in Alberta (-21.7%) and Manitoba (-34.9%).
Nationally, soybean production is expected to reach 5.9 million tonnes in 2014, surpassing the record 5.2 million tonnes set in 2013.
In Ontario, soybean production is expected to increase 15.8% to a record 3.6 million tonnes. This is due to a 21.4% increase in harvested area to 3.0 million acres, as average yield is expected to decrease 4.6% to 43.2 bushels per acre.
Quebec farmers project a 16.9% increase in soybean production to a record 990 000 tonnes. Harvested area is expected to increase 17.8% to 836,500 acres. However, yield is anticipated to decrease 0.7% to 43.5 bushels per acre.
In Manitoba, harvested area of soybeans is expected to increase 17.7% to 1.2 million acres, while yield is anticipated to decrease 14.6% to 32.1 bushels per acre. Consequently, soybean production (+0.6%) could reach a level similar to the 2013 record of 1.1 million tonnes.
Canadian farmers anticipate producing 13.9 million tonnes of canola in 2014, down 22.6% from 2013, mostly the result of a 20.0% decrease in average yield to 32.0 bushels per acre.
In Saskatchewan, 6.7 million tonnes of canola are expected to be produced, down 25.0% from 2013. This is due to a 21.3% decrease in the average yield to 29.6 bushels per acre and 495,000 fewer harvested acres.
In Alberta, farmers anticipate canola production to fall 16.8% to 5.0 million tonnes. This decline is the outcome of an 18.8% decrease in anticipated average yield, as harvested area is expected to increase 2.5% to 6.2 million acres.
In Manitoba, farmers expect canola production of 2.1 million tonnes, down 27.2% from 2013. The decrease is attributable to anticipated declines in both harvested area (-8.3%) and yield (-20.7%).
Corn for grain
At the national level, corn for grain production is expected to decrease 19.5%, from the record 14.2 million tonnes in 2013, to 11.4 million tonnes in 2014.
Following record corn for grain production in 2013, Ontario farmers anticipate a 16.8% decrease in 2014 to 7.5 million tonnes. This is mostly due to a 15.3% decrease in seeded area, since average yield (-1.7%) is expected to be relatively stable.
Quebec farmers project a 19.7% decrease in corn for grain production to 3.0 million tonnes, as a result of decreases in both harvested area (-15.4%) and average yield (-5.2%).
In Manitoba, production of corn for grain is anticipated to reach 739 200 tonnes, down from a record 1.2 million tonnes in 2013, as a result of lower harvested area (-26.7%) and lower yield (-17.3%).
Barley and oats
Nationally, barley production is anticipated to decline 30.0% to 7.2 million tonnes in 2014. This decrease is driven by lower expectations of both harvested area, down 19.9% to 5.2 million acres, and average yield, down 12.6% to 62.7 bushels per acre.
Canadian farmers expect oat production to fall 32.1% to 2.6 million tonnes, the result of anticipated declines in both harvested area and yield.
Note to readers
The July Farm Survey of crop production covering about 12,850 Canadian farms was conducted from July 23 to August 4, 2014. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.
Farm surveys collect data from Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta at all six survey occasions during the crop year (which extends from the March to the November occasion). However, data are collected twice a year (in the June Farm survey on seeded areas and in the November Farm survey on final crop production) for Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia, which represent between 2% and 4% of national totals.
As of July 2014 for these provinces, July and September production estimates are calculated using the final estimates of the last three crop years. The harvested area is first estimated based on the ratio obtained from the sum of harvested areas of the last three years over the sum of the seeded areas of the last three years. This average ratio is applied to their 2014 reported seeded acreage from the June survey. This estimated harvested area is then multiplied by the average yield of the last three years to estimate production.
Final production estimates for 2014 will be released on December 4, 2014, and are subject to revision for two years.
Auxiliary data source: As an additional tool to assess growing conditions of field crops during the crop year, readers are invited to visit the Crop Condition Assessment Program web application. Readers can monitor a vegetation index of crop land on a weekly basis.
Table CANSIM table001-0010: Estimated areas, yield, production and average farm price of principal field crops, in metric units.
Table CANSIM table001-0017: Estimated areas, yield, production, average farm price and total farm value of principal field crops, in imperial units.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number survey number3401.
The stocks of principal field crops at July 31, 2014, will be released on September 5.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; firstname.lastname@example.org) or Media Relations (613-951-4636; email@example.com).
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