StatCan Blog, September 2014
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Released: 2014-09-17
Projecting the population
It's more crystal clear thinking than crystal balls when the experts in Statistics Canada's Demography Division project what this country's population might be 25 or 50 years down the road. The September 2014 edition of the StatCan Blog looks at the process involved in coming up with solid, fact-based population projections for Canada and its provinces and territories.
What is the difference between a projection and a prediction?
A projection uses current data to estimate what might happen in the future, based on various assumptions and scenarios. A prediction is more like a forecast, with a high degree of confidence in the specific outcome, says Patrice Dion, manager of the population projections.
The agency then uses current data to look at a variety of scenarios, accounting for possible changes over time in fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration and interprovincial migration to build a range of projections. Governments, the private sector and non-governmental agencies then take these projections and plan accordingly to ensure they are ready to deal with the challenges that come as societal needs change.
The September 2014 edition of the StatCan Blog is now available from the Stay Connected module of our website.
Contact information
For more information, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca).
To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Penny Stuart (613-951-2005; penny.stuart@statcan.gc.ca), Communications Division.
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