Model-based principal field crop estimates, August 31, 2016

Released: 2016-09-20

The production of spring wheat and barley at the national level is estimated to be higher in 2016 than in 2015, while that of soybeans and canola is expected to be relatively unchanged. Production of oats and corn for grain is expected to decline.

Model-based principal field crop estimates, which provide yield and production estimates for Canada's principal field crops, are now available. In this release, data for Canada correspond to combined data from Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Wheat

At the national level, spring wheat production is estimated to be 20.6 million tonnes in 2016, up 3.9% from 2015, mainly as a result of a higher estimated average yield across the Prairies. The national average yield is anticipated to be 49.9 bushels per acre, up 13.4% from 44.0 bushels per acre in 2015. Harvested acreage in 2016 is reported to have declined 8.3% compared with 2015.

Spring wheat production is expected to increase in Alberta (+13.5%) and Manitoba (+2.6%) in 2016, but to decrease in Saskatchewan (-2.8%). Average yield in Saskatchewan is anticipated to be up 10.6% compared with 2015 to 43.3 bushels per acre. However, an anticipated decline (-12.1%) in harvested area is expected to offset the higher yield anticipated in 2016. In Alberta, average yield is expected to rise 20.7% from 2015 to 57.0 bushels per acre.

Durum wheat production at the national level is expected to be 7.3 million tonnes in 2016, up 35.7% from 2015. This increase is due to a 4.4% gain in acreage, combined with a 30.0% rise in expected yield to 44.7 bushels per acre.

Canola

At the national level, canola production is estimated to be 18.3 million tonnes in 2016, the same level as in 2015, as a result of an expected increase in average yield combined with an anticipated decline in harvested acreage. Estimated average yield for 2016 is up 4.2% from 2015 to a record 41.1 bushels per acre. Estimated average yield is also up compared with the five-year average for Manitoba (+22.9%), Saskatchewan (+16.7%) and Alberta (+17.5%). Harvested acreage is expected to be down 4.0% to 19.6 million acres in 2016.

Soybeans

At the national level, soybean production is estimated to be virtually unchanged compared with 2015, totalling 6.0 million tonnes in 2016. Hot and dry growing conditions in Ontario led to an expected 3.0% decrease in soybean yield to 44.1 bushels per acre in 2016. Production within the province is expected to be down 10.0% from 2015 to 3.2 million tonnes. However, soybean production in Manitoba is estimated to be up 24.7% compared with 2015, because of an expected increase in harvested area (+16.3% to 1.6 million acres) and average yield (+7.3% to 39.7 bushels per acre) in 2016.

Corn for grain

At the national level, corn for grain production is estimated to decrease 2.9% from 2015 to 13.0 million tonnes in 2016.

An expected decline in yield and a lower reported harvested acreage in 2016 could lead to decreased production in Ontario (-4.5% to 8.4 million tonnes) and Quebec (-5.5% to 3.6 million tonnes) compared with 2015. Although average yield in Manitoba is expected to decline 2.9% from 2015 to 122.8 bushels per acre, production is anticipated to increase 26.8% to 1.0 million tonnes in 2016, primarily as a result of an expected gain in harvested acreage (+30.6% to 320,000 acres).

Barley and oats

At the national level, barley production is estimated to increase 4.4% from 2015 to 8.4 million tonnes in 2016, because of a 5.0% rise in expected average yield to 68.3 bushels per acre.

At the national level, oat production is anticipated to decrease 13.4% from 2015 to 2.9 million tonnes in 2016, as a result of a 12.5% decline in reported harvested acres to 2.2 million acres. Average yield is expected to edge down to 84.8 bushels per acre.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; STATCAN.infostats-infostats.STATCAN@canada.ca) or Media Relations (613-951-4636; STATCAN.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.STATCAN@canada.ca).