Job vacancies, labour mobility and layoffs
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- Articles and reports: 81-004-X200900210895Description:
This article uses data from the National Apprenticeship Survey (NAS) 2007 to compare the profiles of apprentices who completed their programs between 2002 and 2004 and who had moved to Alberta by 2007 and those who stayed in their province of enrolment. It also compares a number of variables describing the working conditions of apprenticeship completers who migrated to Alberta for work and those who were working in the province where they received their training (other than Alberta).
Release date: 2009-06-17 - 2. Internal Migration of Immigrants: Do Immigrants Respond to Regional Labour Demand Shocks? ArchivedArticles and reports: 11F0019M2008318Geography: Province or territoryDescription:
The recent economic boom in the Canadian province of Alberta provides an ideal "natural experiment" to examine immigrants' responses to a strong labour demand outside major metropolitan centres. The key finding of our study, which is based on a unique dataset that combines administrative and immigrant records, is that not only did immigrants respond to the recent economic boom in Alberta, but they responded generally more strongly than non-immigrants. We find, however, a great deal of heterogeneity in the magnitude of the response across different regions and for different categories of immigrants.
Release date: 2008-12-05 - 3. Work stress and job performance ArchivedArticles and reports: 75-001-X200711210466Geography: CanadaDescription:
Work stress is widely recognized as a major challenge to both the individual and the economy. It can come from many sources and affect people in different ways. As well, a variety of mitigating factors enter the equation. This article investigates levels, sources and effects of work stress for various socio-demographic and occupational groups.
Release date: 2008-03-18 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M2001155Geography: CanadaDescription:
This study examines prominent and emerging labour market trends of the 1990s to see if they have reversed under the pressure of the robust economic growth of 1997-1999. Specifically, it looks at the dramatic rise in self-employment, trends in job stability, and the low youth employment rate over the 1990s. The strong economic growth in 1997-1999 does not appear to have slowed the rise in self-employment, affected job stability, or dramatically increased youth employment rates. For self-employment this suggests that the rise in the 1990s was not primarily driven by slack labour demand forcing workers to create their own jobs. Job stability rose through much of the 1990s, pushed up by a low quit rate associated with low hiring. The best data currently available show that quit rates in particular have remained relatively low (given the position in the business cycle), and job tenure has remained high. There is little evidence that among paid workers job stability has deteriorated in the 1990s. Lagging youth employment rates were due in large part to an increased propensity for young persons to remain in school. Students have a lower employment rate, and a compositional shift towards more young students lowers the overall employment rate for youth. This propensity for the young to be students has not declined in 1997-1999, and as a result youth employment rates remain low by historical standards.
Release date: 2001-04-04 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M2000148Geography: CanadaDescription:
There is a general sense that the 1990s labour market was unique. It has been characterized by notions such as "downsizing", "technological revolution", "the knowledge-based economy", "rising job instability", and so on. This paper provides an extensive overview of the performance of the 1990s labour market, and asks just how different it was from the 1980s. It goes on to ask if the facts are consistent with many common beliefs and explanations. The paper focuses on (a) macro-level labour market outcomes, and (b) distributional outcomes. Macro-level topics include: has the nature of work changed dramatically in the 1990s? has there been a continued ratcheting up of unemployment? have we witnessed rising job instability and increased levels of layoffs? did company downsizing increase in the 1990s? why did per capita income growth stall in the 1990s? for a worker with a given level of human capital, has there been a deterioration in labour market outcomes?
Much of the focus in the labour market over the 1980s and 1990s was on distributional outcomes - who is winning and who is losing. Some of the distributional outcomes of the 1990s labour market addressed in the paper include: outcomes for men and women; changes in the relative wages of the highly educated and earnings inequality; trends in the rate of low-income; the changing outcomes for recent labour market entrants, including young people and immigrants; and the extent to which technological change plays a major role in these outcomes.
The paper concludes with a discussion of the overall performance of the 1990s labour market as compared to the 1980s.
Release date: 2000-05-04 - 6. Why Do Children Move into and out of Low Income: Changing Labour Market Conditions or Marriage and Divorce ArchivedArticles and reports: 11F0019M1999132Geography: CanadaDescription:
Child poverty is high on the government's agenda. In order to reduce the rate of low-income among children, one has to either reduce the number of children flowing into low-income, or increase the number flowing out. But what is behind such movement? Most analysts would immediately think of job loss among the parents, but obviously divorce and remarriage can also play a role. In order to favourably alter the flows, one has to have some understanding of what is driving them. This paper asks to what extent this movement of children is determined by (1) changes in family status of the parents of children, or (2) changes in the parent's labour market conditions (i.e. job loss and gain, changes in hours of work or wages). We find that for an individual child, a divorce or marriage can have a tremendous influence on the likelihood of entering or exiting low-income. At the level of the individual, changes in family composition (when they occur) are more important than changes in jobs held by parents. However, changes in family status are relatively infrequent compared to labour market changes. Parents are much more likely to lose or find jobs, and experience changes in hours worked or wages, than they are to marry or divorce. When this is accounted for we find that, in the aggregate, flows of children into and out of low income are associated roughly equally with family compositional changes and changes in wages and hours worked.
Release date: 1999-04-21 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997106Geography: Canada, Province or territoryDescription:
This paper documents job turnover and labour market adjustment activities in the Ontario economy from 1978 to 1993. The following highlights the major findings. Both the permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate vary substantially from one industry to another. In 1992, the permanent layoff and total permanent separation rates ranged from 27.3% and 34.2% in construction to only 1.4% and 9.3% in public services, respectively. The permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate also differ noticeably by gender, age and firm size - in most industries, the rates are higher among male workers than among females, higher among younger workers, and higher among smaller employers.
While the permanent layoff rate increases during business cycle downturns and decreases during business cycle upswings, the reverse trend is observed with the total permanent separation rate. This is because the quit rate and the other permanent separation rate both decline during downturns and rise during upswings, more than offsetting the opposite trend associated with the permanent layoff rate.
These univariate-tabulation findings are confirmed in the multi-variate logistic regression results on the statistical determinants of permanent layoffs and total permanent separations. In most industries, after controlling for gender, age, firm size and time periods, the estimated likelihood of permanent layoffs is lower among female workers, decreases significantly with age and firm size, increases during recessions and decreases during recovery and expansion in most industries. The patterns of estimated incidence of total permanent separations are very similar to those of permanent layoffs except that total permanent separations decline during business cycle downturns and climb during business cycle upswings.
Permanently separated workers have had a much more difficult time in finding employment during the most recent recession than any other time in the past 15 years. Almost 40% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 did not have a job in 1993. This is in marked contrast with the experience of the early 1980s, when 29% of permanently separated workers were jobless 3 years after the separation. A very similar trend is found when the analysis is applied to labour market transitions among permanently laid-off workers.
There is a great deal of out-of-province migration among permanently separated workers who did find a job. Nearly 45% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 and found a job in 1993 were employed outside of Ontario. An identical proportion of permanently laid-off workers is found to be employed in other provinces.
Release date: 1997-10-31 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997103Geography: CanadaDescription:
Canadians are increasingly concerned about permanent layoffs, as many feel job instability and the possibility of job loss has increased in the 1990s. Governments, confronted with a large number of permanent layoffs each year, need to know how to respond to improve labour adjustment and the possibility of quickly finding a new job for displaced workers. Within this context, this paper uses a new longitudinal data source on the separations of workers to address three issues. First, has there in fact been an increase in the permanent layoff rate in Canada in the 1990s, as one might anticipate given concerns about rising job instability? Second, what are the underlying causes of most permanent layoffs? The paper explicitly examines the role played by cyclical variation in aggregate demand, variation in industrial demand which is often associated with structural change, and differences in layoff rates by firm size which is in turn associated with the birth and death process of firms.
Third, with this as background, the core of the paper asks a question of concern to policy analysts: are most permanent layoffs rare events for workers, or are they a continuation of a pattern of repeat layoffs? This is important because a worker who is confronted with a layoff which is a rare event will require very different post-displacement adjustment assistance from someone whose history of employment has been marked with frequent layoffs, suggesting an inability to hold a job or demand-side instability in the firm or industry in which the person has worked. The workers' employment history over 10 years is used to explore the relationship between permanent layoff history and the probability of being laid off. Displaced workers are classified "low-risk", "medium-risk" and "high-risk" based on their layoff history, and multinomial logistic analysis is used to distinguish worker and firm characteristics associated with repeat layoffs or layoffs as rare events.
Release date: 1997-09-12 - 9. An overview of permanent layoffs ArchivedArticles and reports: 75-001-X19970033209Geography: CanadaDescription:
Many Canadians believe that job instability and job loss have increased in the 1990s. Using a new longitudinal data source, this article explores the role of the business cycle, changes in industrial demand, and firm size in the growth in permanent layoffs. An overview of the work displacement process is also included. (Adapted from an article in Canadian Economic Observer, February 1997.)
Release date: 1997-09-10 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1996096Geography: CanadaDescription:
Canadians are increasingly concerned about rising job instability. Job instability can take various forms and can be measured in numerous ways. As part of a comprehensive research effort to examine job instability, this paper uses the Longitudinal Worker File (LWF) on the separations of Canadian workers from 1978 to 1993 to assess one dimension of job instability - permanent layoffs. The key question addressed in the paper is "have permanent layoffs in Canada increased in the 1980s and early 1990s as compared to the late 1970s?". We examine the time trend of permanent layoffs first by looking at the permanent layoff rate, and then by logistic regressions to predict the probability of permanent layoffs. The analysis is undertaken for all workers as well as for particular sub-groups.
Created by many complex processes, permanent layoffs are an on-going feature of our economy and not as cyclically sensitive as quits and other means of workforce adjustments used by firms (i.e., temporary layoffs and hirings). Every year, over a million workers are permanently displaced from their jobs, no matter whether in recessions, recovery or expansionary periods. This is as true in the 1980s and early 1990s as in the late 1970s.
Permanent layoffs to 1993 have shown no overall sign of an upward trend when compared to earlier years which are comparable in the business cycle. This holds true whether using the raw data or after controlling for changes in the composition of the workforce by gender, age, province, industry and firm size. However, an increase in the probability of permanent layoffs is observed among some particular groups of workers, notably older or higher paid workers, those in the primary sector or in health, education and welfare services. We will have to wait for more recent data to evaluate trends beyond 1993.
The data further show that the Canadian labour market adjusts to structural changes more through depressed hirings than increased layoffs. While the risk of permanently losing one's job, to 1993 at leasts, is no higher than in earlier comparable periods, the chance of finding a new job is considerably lower, at least in the aggregate. Furthermore, most job creation in the 1990s has been self-employment, where earning may be more unstable than among paid jobs.
Release date: 1996-08-06
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- Articles and reports: 81-004-X200900210895Description:
This article uses data from the National Apprenticeship Survey (NAS) 2007 to compare the profiles of apprentices who completed their programs between 2002 and 2004 and who had moved to Alberta by 2007 and those who stayed in their province of enrolment. It also compares a number of variables describing the working conditions of apprenticeship completers who migrated to Alberta for work and those who were working in the province where they received their training (other than Alberta).
Release date: 2009-06-17 - 2. Internal Migration of Immigrants: Do Immigrants Respond to Regional Labour Demand Shocks? ArchivedArticles and reports: 11F0019M2008318Geography: Province or territoryDescription:
The recent economic boom in the Canadian province of Alberta provides an ideal "natural experiment" to examine immigrants' responses to a strong labour demand outside major metropolitan centres. The key finding of our study, which is based on a unique dataset that combines administrative and immigrant records, is that not only did immigrants respond to the recent economic boom in Alberta, but they responded generally more strongly than non-immigrants. We find, however, a great deal of heterogeneity in the magnitude of the response across different regions and for different categories of immigrants.
Release date: 2008-12-05 - 3. Work stress and job performance ArchivedArticles and reports: 75-001-X200711210466Geography: CanadaDescription:
Work stress is widely recognized as a major challenge to both the individual and the economy. It can come from many sources and affect people in different ways. As well, a variety of mitigating factors enter the equation. This article investigates levels, sources and effects of work stress for various socio-demographic and occupational groups.
Release date: 2008-03-18 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M2001155Geography: CanadaDescription:
This study examines prominent and emerging labour market trends of the 1990s to see if they have reversed under the pressure of the robust economic growth of 1997-1999. Specifically, it looks at the dramatic rise in self-employment, trends in job stability, and the low youth employment rate over the 1990s. The strong economic growth in 1997-1999 does not appear to have slowed the rise in self-employment, affected job stability, or dramatically increased youth employment rates. For self-employment this suggests that the rise in the 1990s was not primarily driven by slack labour demand forcing workers to create their own jobs. Job stability rose through much of the 1990s, pushed up by a low quit rate associated with low hiring. The best data currently available show that quit rates in particular have remained relatively low (given the position in the business cycle), and job tenure has remained high. There is little evidence that among paid workers job stability has deteriorated in the 1990s. Lagging youth employment rates were due in large part to an increased propensity for young persons to remain in school. Students have a lower employment rate, and a compositional shift towards more young students lowers the overall employment rate for youth. This propensity for the young to be students has not declined in 1997-1999, and as a result youth employment rates remain low by historical standards.
Release date: 2001-04-04 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M2000148Geography: CanadaDescription:
There is a general sense that the 1990s labour market was unique. It has been characterized by notions such as "downsizing", "technological revolution", "the knowledge-based economy", "rising job instability", and so on. This paper provides an extensive overview of the performance of the 1990s labour market, and asks just how different it was from the 1980s. It goes on to ask if the facts are consistent with many common beliefs and explanations. The paper focuses on (a) macro-level labour market outcomes, and (b) distributional outcomes. Macro-level topics include: has the nature of work changed dramatically in the 1990s? has there been a continued ratcheting up of unemployment? have we witnessed rising job instability and increased levels of layoffs? did company downsizing increase in the 1990s? why did per capita income growth stall in the 1990s? for a worker with a given level of human capital, has there been a deterioration in labour market outcomes?
Much of the focus in the labour market over the 1980s and 1990s was on distributional outcomes - who is winning and who is losing. Some of the distributional outcomes of the 1990s labour market addressed in the paper include: outcomes for men and women; changes in the relative wages of the highly educated and earnings inequality; trends in the rate of low-income; the changing outcomes for recent labour market entrants, including young people and immigrants; and the extent to which technological change plays a major role in these outcomes.
The paper concludes with a discussion of the overall performance of the 1990s labour market as compared to the 1980s.
Release date: 2000-05-04 - 6. Why Do Children Move into and out of Low Income: Changing Labour Market Conditions or Marriage and Divorce ArchivedArticles and reports: 11F0019M1999132Geography: CanadaDescription:
Child poverty is high on the government's agenda. In order to reduce the rate of low-income among children, one has to either reduce the number of children flowing into low-income, or increase the number flowing out. But what is behind such movement? Most analysts would immediately think of job loss among the parents, but obviously divorce and remarriage can also play a role. In order to favourably alter the flows, one has to have some understanding of what is driving them. This paper asks to what extent this movement of children is determined by (1) changes in family status of the parents of children, or (2) changes in the parent's labour market conditions (i.e. job loss and gain, changes in hours of work or wages). We find that for an individual child, a divorce or marriage can have a tremendous influence on the likelihood of entering or exiting low-income. At the level of the individual, changes in family composition (when they occur) are more important than changes in jobs held by parents. However, changes in family status are relatively infrequent compared to labour market changes. Parents are much more likely to lose or find jobs, and experience changes in hours worked or wages, than they are to marry or divorce. When this is accounted for we find that, in the aggregate, flows of children into and out of low income are associated roughly equally with family compositional changes and changes in wages and hours worked.
Release date: 1999-04-21 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997106Geography: Canada, Province or territoryDescription:
This paper documents job turnover and labour market adjustment activities in the Ontario economy from 1978 to 1993. The following highlights the major findings. Both the permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate vary substantially from one industry to another. In 1992, the permanent layoff and total permanent separation rates ranged from 27.3% and 34.2% in construction to only 1.4% and 9.3% in public services, respectively. The permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate also differ noticeably by gender, age and firm size - in most industries, the rates are higher among male workers than among females, higher among younger workers, and higher among smaller employers.
While the permanent layoff rate increases during business cycle downturns and decreases during business cycle upswings, the reverse trend is observed with the total permanent separation rate. This is because the quit rate and the other permanent separation rate both decline during downturns and rise during upswings, more than offsetting the opposite trend associated with the permanent layoff rate.
These univariate-tabulation findings are confirmed in the multi-variate logistic regression results on the statistical determinants of permanent layoffs and total permanent separations. In most industries, after controlling for gender, age, firm size and time periods, the estimated likelihood of permanent layoffs is lower among female workers, decreases significantly with age and firm size, increases during recessions and decreases during recovery and expansion in most industries. The patterns of estimated incidence of total permanent separations are very similar to those of permanent layoffs except that total permanent separations decline during business cycle downturns and climb during business cycle upswings.
Permanently separated workers have had a much more difficult time in finding employment during the most recent recession than any other time in the past 15 years. Almost 40% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 did not have a job in 1993. This is in marked contrast with the experience of the early 1980s, when 29% of permanently separated workers were jobless 3 years after the separation. A very similar trend is found when the analysis is applied to labour market transitions among permanently laid-off workers.
There is a great deal of out-of-province migration among permanently separated workers who did find a job. Nearly 45% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 and found a job in 1993 were employed outside of Ontario. An identical proportion of permanently laid-off workers is found to be employed in other provinces.
Release date: 1997-10-31 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997103Geography: CanadaDescription:
Canadians are increasingly concerned about permanent layoffs, as many feel job instability and the possibility of job loss has increased in the 1990s. Governments, confronted with a large number of permanent layoffs each year, need to know how to respond to improve labour adjustment and the possibility of quickly finding a new job for displaced workers. Within this context, this paper uses a new longitudinal data source on the separations of workers to address three issues. First, has there in fact been an increase in the permanent layoff rate in Canada in the 1990s, as one might anticipate given concerns about rising job instability? Second, what are the underlying causes of most permanent layoffs? The paper explicitly examines the role played by cyclical variation in aggregate demand, variation in industrial demand which is often associated with structural change, and differences in layoff rates by firm size which is in turn associated with the birth and death process of firms.
Third, with this as background, the core of the paper asks a question of concern to policy analysts: are most permanent layoffs rare events for workers, or are they a continuation of a pattern of repeat layoffs? This is important because a worker who is confronted with a layoff which is a rare event will require very different post-displacement adjustment assistance from someone whose history of employment has been marked with frequent layoffs, suggesting an inability to hold a job or demand-side instability in the firm or industry in which the person has worked. The workers' employment history over 10 years is used to explore the relationship between permanent layoff history and the probability of being laid off. Displaced workers are classified "low-risk", "medium-risk" and "high-risk" based on their layoff history, and multinomial logistic analysis is used to distinguish worker and firm characteristics associated with repeat layoffs or layoffs as rare events.
Release date: 1997-09-12 - 9. An overview of permanent layoffs ArchivedArticles and reports: 75-001-X19970033209Geography: CanadaDescription:
Many Canadians believe that job instability and job loss have increased in the 1990s. Using a new longitudinal data source, this article explores the role of the business cycle, changes in industrial demand, and firm size in the growth in permanent layoffs. An overview of the work displacement process is also included. (Adapted from an article in Canadian Economic Observer, February 1997.)
Release date: 1997-09-10 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1996096Geography: CanadaDescription:
Canadians are increasingly concerned about rising job instability. Job instability can take various forms and can be measured in numerous ways. As part of a comprehensive research effort to examine job instability, this paper uses the Longitudinal Worker File (LWF) on the separations of Canadian workers from 1978 to 1993 to assess one dimension of job instability - permanent layoffs. The key question addressed in the paper is "have permanent layoffs in Canada increased in the 1980s and early 1990s as compared to the late 1970s?". We examine the time trend of permanent layoffs first by looking at the permanent layoff rate, and then by logistic regressions to predict the probability of permanent layoffs. The analysis is undertaken for all workers as well as for particular sub-groups.
Created by many complex processes, permanent layoffs are an on-going feature of our economy and not as cyclically sensitive as quits and other means of workforce adjustments used by firms (i.e., temporary layoffs and hirings). Every year, over a million workers are permanently displaced from their jobs, no matter whether in recessions, recovery or expansionary periods. This is as true in the 1980s and early 1990s as in the late 1970s.
Permanent layoffs to 1993 have shown no overall sign of an upward trend when compared to earlier years which are comparable in the business cycle. This holds true whether using the raw data or after controlling for changes in the composition of the workforce by gender, age, province, industry and firm size. However, an increase in the probability of permanent layoffs is observed among some particular groups of workers, notably older or higher paid workers, those in the primary sector or in health, education and welfare services. We will have to wait for more recent data to evaluate trends beyond 1993.
The data further show that the Canadian labour market adjusts to structural changes more through depressed hirings than increased layoffs. While the risk of permanently losing one's job, to 1993 at leasts, is no higher than in earlier comparable periods, the chance of finding a new job is considerably lower, at least in the aggregate. Furthermore, most job creation in the 1990s has been self-employment, where earning may be more unstable than among paid jobs.
Release date: 1996-08-06
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