Weighting and estimation

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  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016241
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    Leslie Kish long advocated the use of the "rolling sample" design. With non-overlapping, monthly panels that can be cumulated over different lengths of time for domains of different sizes, the rolling sample design enables a single survey to serve multiple purposes. The Census Bureau's new American Community Survey uses such a rolling sample design with annual averages to measure change at the state level, and three-year or five-year moving averages to describe progressively smaller domains. This paper traces Kish's influence on the development of the American Community Survey, and discusses some practical methodological issues that had to be addressed during the implementation of the design.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016246
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    Samples sizes in small population areas are typically very small. As a result, customary, area-specific, direct estimators of Small Area Means do not provide acceptable quality in terms of Mean Square Error (MSE). Indirect estimators that borrow strength from related areas by linking models based on similar auxiliary data are now widely used for small area estimation. Such linking models are either implicit (as in the case of synthetic estimators) or explicit (as in the case of model-based estimators). In the Frequentist approach, the quality of an indirect estimator is measured by its estimated MSE while the posterior variance of the Small Area Mean is used in the Bayesian approach. This paper reviews some recent work on estimating MSE and the evaluation of posterior variance.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016247
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    This paper describes joint research by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Southampton University regarding the evaluation of several different approaches to the local estimation of International Labour Office (ILO) unemployment. The need to compare estimators with different underlying assumptions has led to a focus on evaluation methods that are (partly at least) model-independent. Model-fit diagnostics that have been considered include: various residual procedures, cross-validation, predictive validation, consistency with marginals, and consistency with direct estimates within single cells. These diagnostics have been used to compare different model-based estimators with each other and with direct estimators.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016254
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    At Statistics Netherlands, the design and organization of the statistical process is changing rapidly, motivated by the need to produce more consistent data and to cut down the response burden. The ideas behind the new production process are the integration of all survey and administrative data into a limited number of micro-databases and the development of an estimation strategy for those databases.

    This paper provides the initial incentive for an estimation strategy per micro-database. The proposed strategy ensures that all estimated m-way tables are numerically consistent with respect to common margins, even if these tables are estimated from different surveys. Although still based on the calibration principle, it is not necessarily centred on a fixed set of weights per survey. The practicability of the strategy is tested by means of a fictitious example.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016259
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    In cut-off sampling, part of the target population is deliberately excluded from selection. In business statistics, the frame and the sample are typically restricted to enterprises of at least a given size (e.g. a certain number of employees). The response burden is eliminated for the small enterprises, but assumptions must be used for the non-sampled part of the population. Cut-off sampling has merits but requires care when measuring size and methodological work with models.

    This paper presents some empirical Swedish results based on one survey and administrative data. Different error sources and their effects on the overall accuracy are discussed.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016267
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    In practice, a list of the desired collection units is not always available. Instead, a list of different units that are somehow related to the collection units may be provided, thus producing two related populations, UA and UB. An estimate for UB needs to be created, however, the sampling frame provided is only for the UA population.

    One solution for this problem is to select a sample from UA (sA) and produce an estimate for UB using the existing relationship between the two populations. This process may be referred to as indirect sampling. To assign a selection probability, or an estimation weight, for the survey units, Lavallée (1995) developed the generalized weight share method (GWSM). The GWSM produces an estimation weight that basically constitutes an average of the sampling weights of the units in sA.

    This paper discusses the types of non-response associated with indirect sampling and the possible estimation problems that can occur in the application of the GWSM.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016271
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    This paper proposes a method for short-term estimation of labour input indicators using administrative data from the Social Security Database (SSD). The rationale for developing this methodology originated from the need for national statistical offices to meet the standard quality criteria in the Regulation no. 1165/98 of the European Community concerning short-term business statistics. Information requested in the Regulation involves such a detailed disaggregation that it would be impossible to meet all the requirements through direct data collection. Administrative data, because of their timeliness and detailed coverage, represent a valuable source for obtaining estimates of business population aggregates that meet such quality requirements.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016276
    Description:

    In surveys where interviewers need a high degree of specialist knowledge and training, one is often forced to make do with a small number of highly trained people, each having a high case load. It is well known that this can lead to interviewer variability having a relatively large impact on the total error, particularly for estimates of simple quantities such as means and proportions. In a previous paper (Davis and Scott, 1995) the impact for continuous responses was looked at using a linear components of variance model. However, most responses in health questionnaires are binary and it is known that this approach results in underestimating the intra-cluster and intra-interviewer correlations for binary responses. In this paper,a multi-level binary model is used to explore the impact of interviewer variability on estimated proportions.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016281
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    Methodology for estimating the sampling error of the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of level of the Index of Production (IoP) has previously been developed using Taylor linearization and parametric bootstrap methods, with both producing comparable results. From the study, it was considered that the parametric bootstrap approach would be more practical to implement. This paper describes the methodology that is being developed to estimate the sampling error of the non-seasonally adjusted IoP change using the parametric bootstrap method, along with the data that are needed from the contributing surveys, the assumptions made, and the practical problems encountered during development.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016287
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    In this paper we discuss a specific component of a research agenda aimed at disclosure protections for "non-traditional" statistical outputs. We argue that these outputs present different disclosure risks than normally faced and hence may require new thinking on the issue. Specifically, we argue that kernel density estimators, while powerful (high quality) descriptions of cross-sections, pose potential disclosure risks that depend materially on the selection of bandwidth. We illustrate these risks using a unique, non-confidential data set on the statistical universe of coal mines and present potential solutions. Finally, we discuss current practices at the U.S. Census Bureau's Center for Economic Studies for performing disclosure analysis on kernel density estimators.

    Release date: 2002-09-12
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  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016241
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    Leslie Kish long advocated the use of the "rolling sample" design. With non-overlapping, monthly panels that can be cumulated over different lengths of time for domains of different sizes, the rolling sample design enables a single survey to serve multiple purposes. The Census Bureau's new American Community Survey uses such a rolling sample design with annual averages to measure change at the state level, and three-year or five-year moving averages to describe progressively smaller domains. This paper traces Kish's influence on the development of the American Community Survey, and discusses some practical methodological issues that had to be addressed during the implementation of the design.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016246
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    Samples sizes in small population areas are typically very small. As a result, customary, area-specific, direct estimators of Small Area Means do not provide acceptable quality in terms of Mean Square Error (MSE). Indirect estimators that borrow strength from related areas by linking models based on similar auxiliary data are now widely used for small area estimation. Such linking models are either implicit (as in the case of synthetic estimators) or explicit (as in the case of model-based estimators). In the Frequentist approach, the quality of an indirect estimator is measured by its estimated MSE while the posterior variance of the Small Area Mean is used in the Bayesian approach. This paper reviews some recent work on estimating MSE and the evaluation of posterior variance.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016247
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    This paper describes joint research by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Southampton University regarding the evaluation of several different approaches to the local estimation of International Labour Office (ILO) unemployment. The need to compare estimators with different underlying assumptions has led to a focus on evaluation methods that are (partly at least) model-independent. Model-fit diagnostics that have been considered include: various residual procedures, cross-validation, predictive validation, consistency with marginals, and consistency with direct estimates within single cells. These diagnostics have been used to compare different model-based estimators with each other and with direct estimators.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016254
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    At Statistics Netherlands, the design and organization of the statistical process is changing rapidly, motivated by the need to produce more consistent data and to cut down the response burden. The ideas behind the new production process are the integration of all survey and administrative data into a limited number of micro-databases and the development of an estimation strategy for those databases.

    This paper provides the initial incentive for an estimation strategy per micro-database. The proposed strategy ensures that all estimated m-way tables are numerically consistent with respect to common margins, even if these tables are estimated from different surveys. Although still based on the calibration principle, it is not necessarily centred on a fixed set of weights per survey. The practicability of the strategy is tested by means of a fictitious example.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016259
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    In cut-off sampling, part of the target population is deliberately excluded from selection. In business statistics, the frame and the sample are typically restricted to enterprises of at least a given size (e.g. a certain number of employees). The response burden is eliminated for the small enterprises, but assumptions must be used for the non-sampled part of the population. Cut-off sampling has merits but requires care when measuring size and methodological work with models.

    This paper presents some empirical Swedish results based on one survey and administrative data. Different error sources and their effects on the overall accuracy are discussed.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016267
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    In practice, a list of the desired collection units is not always available. Instead, a list of different units that are somehow related to the collection units may be provided, thus producing two related populations, UA and UB. An estimate for UB needs to be created, however, the sampling frame provided is only for the UA population.

    One solution for this problem is to select a sample from UA (sA) and produce an estimate for UB using the existing relationship between the two populations. This process may be referred to as indirect sampling. To assign a selection probability, or an estimation weight, for the survey units, Lavallée (1995) developed the generalized weight share method (GWSM). The GWSM produces an estimation weight that basically constitutes an average of the sampling weights of the units in sA.

    This paper discusses the types of non-response associated with indirect sampling and the possible estimation problems that can occur in the application of the GWSM.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016271
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    This paper proposes a method for short-term estimation of labour input indicators using administrative data from the Social Security Database (SSD). The rationale for developing this methodology originated from the need for national statistical offices to meet the standard quality criteria in the Regulation no. 1165/98 of the European Community concerning short-term business statistics. Information requested in the Regulation involves such a detailed disaggregation that it would be impossible to meet all the requirements through direct data collection. Administrative data, because of their timeliness and detailed coverage, represent a valuable source for obtaining estimates of business population aggregates that meet such quality requirements.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016276
    Description:

    In surveys where interviewers need a high degree of specialist knowledge and training, one is often forced to make do with a small number of highly trained people, each having a high case load. It is well known that this can lead to interviewer variability having a relatively large impact on the total error, particularly for estimates of simple quantities such as means and proportions. In a previous paper (Davis and Scott, 1995) the impact for continuous responses was looked at using a linear components of variance model. However, most responses in health questionnaires are binary and it is known that this approach results in underestimating the intra-cluster and intra-interviewer correlations for binary responses. In this paper,a multi-level binary model is used to explore the impact of interviewer variability on estimated proportions.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016281
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    Methodology for estimating the sampling error of the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of level of the Index of Production (IoP) has previously been developed using Taylor linearization and parametric bootstrap methods, with both producing comparable results. From the study, it was considered that the parametric bootstrap approach would be more practical to implement. This paper describes the methodology that is being developed to estimate the sampling error of the non-seasonally adjusted IoP change using the parametric bootstrap method, along with the data that are needed from the contributing surveys, the assumptions made, and the practical problems encountered during development.

    Release date: 2002-09-12

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20010016287
    Description:

    This paper discusses in detail issues dealing with the technical aspects of designing and conducting surveys. It is intended for an audience of survey methodologists.

    In this paper we discuss a specific component of a research agenda aimed at disclosure protections for "non-traditional" statistical outputs. We argue that these outputs present different disclosure risks than normally faced and hence may require new thinking on the issue. Specifically, we argue that kernel density estimators, while powerful (high quality) descriptions of cross-sections, pose potential disclosure risks that depend materially on the selection of bandwidth. We illustrate these risks using a unique, non-confidential data set on the statistical universe of coal mines and present potential solutions. Finally, we discuss current practices at the U.S. Census Bureau's Center for Economic Studies for performing disclosure analysis on kernel density estimators.

    Release date: 2002-09-12
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