Tuesday, March 29, 2005

SPOTLIGHT: Visible minorities

One-fifth of population by 2017

ROUGHLY one out of every five people in Canada could be a member of a visible minority by 2017 when Canada celebrates its 150^th anniversary, according to new ethno-cultural population projections.

Under the scenarios considered for these projections, Canada would have between 6.3 million and 8.5 million visible minorities 12 years from now. They would represent between 19% and 23% of the population.

Depending on the growth scenario, this would be an increase ranging from 56% to 111% from 2001, when their number was estimated at about 4.0 million. In contrast, the projected increase for the rest of the population was estimated at between only 1% and 7% between 2001 and 2017.

In 2001, 13% of the population identified themselves as belonging to a visible minority group as defined in the Employment Equity Act.

Data from past censuses showed that the visible minority population is growing much faster than the total population. Between 1996 and 2001, the total population increased 4%, while the visible minority population rose 25%, six times faster.

Faster pace

The projections showed that regardless of the scenario – low growth or high growth – the visible minority population would continue increasing at a faster pace than the rest of the population between now and 2017. The same would be true for Canada’s populations of immigrants, allophones and non-Christian religious denominations.

The projections are the result of a project initiated in 2004 by the multiculturalism and human rights program at the Department of Canadian Heritage. Its goal was to prepare a portrait of the ethno-cultural diversity of the Canadian population in 2017, the 150th anniversary of Confederation.

Among the factors that account for the more rapid growth in the visible minority population, the most important are unquestionably the sustained immigration along with high proportion of visible minority people among the new arrivals.

Population growth will probably not be divided equally among constituent sub-groups. For example, the faster growth of the South Asian group between now and 2017 may put it on equal terms with the Chinese, the visible minority group with the largest population in 2001.

The South Asian group has higher fertility than the Chinese and almost as big a share of immigration. The projections show that the population of each group could be around 1.8 million.

In 2001, Chinese and South Asians were already the largest visible minority groups in Canada, but their share of the total population differed.

Black population

Projections show that the Black population would remain the third largest visible minority. It would reach around 1.0 million in 2017, compared with about 662,000 in the 2001 Census.

The visible minority groups that would grow fastest between now and 2017 are the West Asian, Korean and Arab groups. Under most of the projection scenarios, the population of each group would more than double.

Twelve years from now, the visible minority population should remain younger than the rest of the population. However, it too would be an ageing population with proportionally fewer young people and more seniors.

The median age of the visible minority population would be an estimated 35.5 in 2017, about four years more than it was in 2001. In contrast, the median age of the rest of the population would be 43.4 years, nearly six years more than it was in 2001.

You can read the report “Population projections of visible minority groups, 2001 to 2017” on our website.

For more information, contact Alain Bélanger (1-613-951-2326), Demography Division.

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© 2004, 2005 Statistics Canada.