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Current Economic Analysis Division (613-951-9162).
Eric Lascelles of TD Securities in “The mystery of fluxuating jobs data” in The National Post, December 6, 2008.
David Parkinson, ‘’Why are labour surveys so unpredictable?’’, Globe and Mail, B15, December 20, 2008.
The same conclusion holds for the monthly percent change of the logarithm of real GDP; it is nearly identical before and after 2002.
Lascelles found that a 6-month moving average worked better for the LFS employment data than a 3-month moving average.
A similar conclusion on the relative volatility of quarterly and year-over-year changes in GDP was found in “Revisions to the Quarterly Labour Productivity Estimates” by John Baldwin and Nataliya Rylska, Canadian Productivity Review, Catalogue no. 15-206-X1E, no 12, p. 41.
Data from the survey of employment, payrolls, and hours show a decline from 0.29 between 1994 and 2002 to 0.20 thereafter.
