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Chief Economic Analyst (613-951-9162)
The World Bank estimates that a shortage of trade finance explained 10 to 15% of the drop in global trade in 2008-2009. See “Turnaround in global commerce defies the doomsayers” in Financial Times Special Report on the World Economy, October 6, 2009.
See “Going under”, The Economist, May 24, 2009.
“Sea of troubles”, The Economist, July 30, 2009.
The elasticity between trade and GDP exceeds 1.0 only if the drop in trade is concentrated in sectors with extensive global supply chains and not all trade is vertically disintegrated. See Kevin O’Rourke, “Collapsing trade in a Barbie world” from www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/06/18.
Commodity price data from the IMF.
