Management experience and diversity in an aging organization: A microsimulation
analysis
by Ted Wannell and Martin
Gravel
Business and Labour Market Analysis Division
Analytical Studies
Branch research paper series, No. 188
The aging of the Canadian population
is a well recognized phenomenon and has received considerable policy research
attention, particularly in the health and public pension domains. Very little
work has been focused on the impacts of aging at the organizational level. Foot
and Venne studied the advancement of the baby boom through traditional organizational
hierarchies, noting its impacts on human resource policies that encourage horizontal
career development. Saba et al looked more particularly at the management of older
professionals in the Quebec public service, finding that employee recognition
was an important human resource strategy for motivating this group. We extend
these studies further along the aging ladder—to the point where retirement
and replacement become the major concerns.
Looking at the management hierarchy
within Statistics Canada, we use a microsimulation model first to estimate the
expected level of retirements over the next 10 years. We then detail the adjustments
to promotion and hiring rates required to replace outgoing managers. We then examine
simulated microdata to estimate the experience effects of increasing turnover.
Finally, we use the demographic features of the model to examine whether the increasing
turnover is likely to increase the representation of women and visible minorities
among Statistics Canada managers.
Given the assumptions outlined in the
paper, we find that increasing turnover rates in the next 10 years will generally
not reduce management experience to below recently observed levels. We also find
that given equal promotion rates for men and women, the representation rate of
women among Statistics Canada managers is likely to increase rapidly in coming
years. On the other hand, visible minority representation among managers will
likely stall for several years, even with proactive recruitment and advancement
policies.
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