Longitudinal patterns in the duration of unemployment insurance claims in Canada

by Miles Corak
Business and Labour Market Analysis Division
Analytical Studies Branch research paper series, No. 047

The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of occurrence dependence in the duration of unemployment insurance claims. This hypothesis suggests that the past occurrence of a spell of insured unemployment alters, in a structural way, the duration of future spells.

Canadian administrative data that cover the period from mid 1971 to early 1990 are used. Descriptive statistics suggest that successive spells for an individual are on average longer in length, and formal tests strongly reject the null of no occurrence dependence. This suggests that an individual's labour force history may influence his or her future.

Not available electronically.