Rural youth: Stayers, leavers and return migrants
by Richard Dupuy, Francine Mayer and René
Morissette
Business and Labour Market Analysis Division
Analytical Studies
Branch research paper series, No. 152
There has been for some time substantial
concern regarding the loss of young people in rural communities. There is a sense
that most rural communities offer few opportunities for their younger people,
requiring them to leave for urban communities, most likely not to return. While
there is a considerable body of research on interprovincial migration, very little
is currently known about migration patterns in rural and urban areas in Canada.
To our knowledge, no Canadian study has yet answered questions such as :
- to what extent do young people move out of rural (and urban) areas,
- what
percentage return to rural (and urban) areas,
- is the loss of young people
offset by in-migration of prime aged workers, and
- do individuals who
move out of rural areas experience higher earnings growth than stayers ? These
questions are important as they help policy makers establish the basic facts about
the migration patterns of the rural youth population. Doing so is a necessary
step to understand what policy intervention, if any, is needed to help some rural
areas stop the decline of their youth population.
In virtually all
provinces, among individuals aged 15-19, out-migration from rural areas is greater
than out-migration from urban areas, in part to pursue post-secondary education.
Surprisingly, among individuals aged 20-29 living in Atlantic provinces, fewer
people leave rural areas than urban areas. However, in this age group, fewer people
move into rural areas as compared to urban areas, in most Atlantic provinces.
The net result is that all Atlantic provinces—as well as Manitoba and Saskatchewan—are
net losers of their rural population aged 15-29. The problem is particularly acute
in Newfoundland. Of all individuals who move out of their rural community, at
most 25% return ten years later. The implication of this result is clear: policy
makers in various economic regions cannot count on return migration as a means
of preserving the population size of a given age cohort. Rather, they must rely
on inflows from other (urban) areas to achieve this goal.
Consistent with
previous findings from the interprovincial migration literature, individuals who
move out of rural areas generally experience higher earnings growth than their
counterparts who stay. Whether this higher earnings growth is the result of the
migration process itself or possibly reflects the steeper age-earnings profile
of movers remains an open question.
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