Return and Onward Migration among Working Age Men
by Abdurrahman Aydemir and Chris Robinson
Family and Labour Studies Division
Analytical Studies Branch research paper series, No. 273
Context
Recent immigration appears to be characterized by frequent return and
onward migration. This has important consequences for the contribution
of immigrants to the economy of the host country. Lack of longitudinal
data has prevented much analysis of whether recent international migration
is more like internal migration and not a once-for-all move with a possible
return should the move prove to have been a mistake. A newly available
longitudinal data set covering all immigrants to Canada since 1980 provides
the opportunity to address the issues raised by the new migration.
Objectives
This paper analyzes factors that determine how long immigrants remain
in Canada in their first spell in the country, and what happens thereafter.
Findings
Migration to Canada for some immigrants is not a permanent move. Many
newcomers subsequently leave Canada. Among young males, those admitted
to the country under the business and skilled worker classes were most
likely to leave.
The analysis shows that these immigrants future profile in Canada
is strongly influenced by a variety of measurable factors, such as their
country of origin and their economic qualifications.
A substantial part of migration to Canada is not necessarily permanent,
with about a third of male immigrants (aged 25 to 45 at the time of
landing) experiencing out-migration within 20 years after arrival. More
than half of those who leave do so within the first year of arrival.
In addition, the business cycle had a strong impact. For example,
the groups who arrived when the economy was relatively weak during the
recession of 1990/91 had higher departure rates.
Profiles of residence in Canada, as indicated by income tax return
filing behaviour, varied across source countries and immigrant classes.
Emigration rates were especially high for source countries such as the
United States and Hong Kong, and for those admitted under the skilled
worker or business classes.
Data sources: The data sets used in this study are
the Landing’s data, census data and the Longitudinal Immigration
Data Base.
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