The evolution of job stability in Canada: Trends and comparisons to
U.S. results
by Andrew Heisz and Mark Walsh
Business
and Labour Market Analysis Division
Analytical Studies Branch research paper
series, No. 162
Job stability is an important recurring issue for Canadians.
There has been a sense throughout the 1990s that Canadians tended to stay in their
jobs for a shorter period of time, in part because of higher layoff rates.
The
findings show that although the current distribution of in-progress job tenures
is filling up with more long term jobs, and more shorter term jobs – suggesting
a polarization of job tenure, the stability of currently held jobs has remained
quite stable over the period. A closer look reveals two phases in the Canadian
data. The period 1977 to 1993 was characterized by declining job stability. Examining
the data by current job tenure, we see a declining stability of short jobs – those less than one year in length were less likely to last one more year in at
the end of the 1980s (and beginning of the 1990s) than in the late 1970s. At the
same time jobs between one and two years long tended to become more stable—becoming
more likely to last one more year by 1993. The second phase—1993-1999—was
characterized by a reversal of these trends such that by the end of the period,
jobs of all lengths were equally as stable as in the late 1970s. Declines across
the 1980s in job stability were concentrated in low education, older and younger
groups—but job stability grew most for these same groups in the 1990s.
This
paper also examines developments in job stability in Canada relative to the United
States. Up to now, such a project has been hampered by a lack of comparable methods.
This study analyses job stability using a methodology identical to that used in
leading U.S. research. Job stability was at similar levels in the two countries
between 1987 and 1995 (the period for which U.S. results are available). While
the research goes to the fullest length possible to render the data sources comparable,
comparisons of levels may still be unwise. Hence, the paper focuses primarily
on developments over time. It finds that while job stability changed in Canada
and the U.S. in a similar manner between 1987 and 1991, job stability rose in
Canada relative to the U.S. between 1991 and 1995. This divergence in trends may
be because of a relatively deeper recession in Canada in the early 1990s and slower
recovery in the mid-1990s. Such events likely resulted in reduced firm hiring
in Canada relative to the U.S., leading to a decline in the quit rate, and a rise
in job tenure and stability. A rise in job stability (tenure) is not always a
good news story, as it was associated through most of the 1990s with poor economic
conditions and lower quit rates.
View
the article in the Daily about this publication.
View
the full publication.
You need to use the free Adobe Reader to view PDF documents. To view (open) these files, simply click on the link. To download (save) them, right-click on the link. Note that if you are using Internet Explorer or AOL, PDF documents sometimes do not open properly. See Troubleshooting PDFs. PDF documents may not be accessible by some devices. For more information, visit the Adobe website or contact us for assistance.
