Update on Analytical Studies Research: Education and training

International Mobility: Patterns of Exit and Return of Canadians, 1982 to 2003

by Ross Finnie
Business and Labour Market Analysis Division
Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series, No. 288

Context

Interest in patterns of exit and return of Canadian has been long-standing. During the late 1990s, there was concern regarding both the volume of the exits by Canadians from Canada, and the characteristics of those leaving. Many thought that best and brightest were leaving the country in unprecedented numbers.

Objective(s)

This paper measures the flows of Canadians to other countries and the patterns of return over the period from 1982 to 2003.

Findings

Overall, approximately 0.1% (i.e., one tenth of 1%) of the adult population leaves the country in any given year. Departure rates have generally moved with the state of the Canadian economy, but the trends have clearly been driven by more than this. Departure rates decline with age (except for the youngest group); are lower for couples without children than other family types; are high for those in British Columbia, quite low for Francophone Quebecers, and very high for Anglophones in that province; are somewhat lower for those on Employment Insurance and substantially higher for those at higher-income levels; and are very much higher for recent immigrants.

Departure rates for those at higher-income levels shifted upwards in the 1990s, but returned to pre-1990s rates in more recent years in the case of men, while the shift was maintained for women. Only a minority of those who leave ever return: about 15% within 5 years of their departure. Return rates have, however, increased significantly since 2000-mirroring to a large extent what was happening on the departure side.

Data source(s)

The study uses the data of the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD).

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