Rural youth: stayers, leavers and return
migrants
by Richard Dupuy, Francine Mayer and René Morissette
Business
and Labour Market Analysis Division
Analytical Studies Branch research paper
series, No. 152
There has been for some time substantial concern regarding
the loss of young people in rural communities. There is a sense that most rural
communities offer few opportunities for their younger people, requiring them to
leave for urban communities, most likely not to return. While there is a considerable
body of research on interprovincial migration, very little is currently known
about migration patterns in rural and urban areas in Canada. To our knowledge,
no Canadian study has yet answered questions such as :
- to what extent
do young people move out of rural (and urban) areas,
- what percentage
return to rural (and urban) areas,
- is the loss of young people offset
by in-migration of prime aged workers, and
- do individuals who move out
of rural areas experience higher earnings growth than stayers ?
These
questions are important as they help policy makers establish the basic facts about
the migration patterns of the rural youth population. Doing so is a necessary
step to understand what policy intervention, if any, is needed to help some rural
areas stop the decline of their youth population.
In virtually all provinces,
among individuals aged 15-19, out-migration from rural areas is greater than out-migration
from urban areas, in part to pursue post-secondary education. Surprisingly, among
individuals aged 20-29 living in Atlantic provinces, fewer people leave rural
areas than urban areas. However, in this age group, fewer people move into rural
areas as compared to urban areas, in most Atlantic provinces. The net result is
that all Atlantic provinces—as well as Manitoba and Saskatchewan—are
net losers of their rural population aged 15-29. The problem is particularly acute
in Newfoundland. Of all individuals who move out of their rural community, at
most 25% return ten years later. The implication of this result is clear: policy
makers in various economic regions cannot count on return migration as a means
of preserving the population size of a given age cohort. Rather, they must rely
on inflows from other (urban) areas to achieve this goal.
Consistent with
previous findings from the interprovincial migration literature, individuals who
move out of rural areas generally experience higher earnings growth than their
counterparts who stay. Whether this higher earnings growth is the result of the
migration process itself or possibly reflects the steeper age-earnings profile
of movers remains an open question.
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