Statistics Canada
Symbol of the Government of Canada

Not Dutch Disease, It's China Syndrome

Warning View the most recent version.

Archived Content

Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.

by Ryan Macdonald

Content note: The feature article is available in HTML in the August 2007 edition of Canadian Economic Observer.
To access the PDF publication, please use the “Full content in PDF” link on the sidebar (on the left-hand side of this page).


This paper empirically investigates how the Canadian economy has evolved following the rise in commodity prices and appreciation of the Canadian dollar that began in 2003. The adjustment in the manufacturing industry has garnered the greatest attention because it has borne the brunt of job losses. However, the adjustment of the manufacturing industry has not been straightforward. Rather, a complex reallocation has been taking place within manufacturing that has been predominantly due to the integration of emerging nations into the global economy. The increased commodity prices and falling manufactured prices caused by this integration have affected durable and non-durable manufacturing industries differently. Non-durable manufacturers have tended to see their competitiveness eroded and their output has tended to fall. Durable manufacturers, on the other hand, have increased output in response to the resource boom and increased demand in general. The result has been stable manufacturing output overall, accompanied by a re-orientation of manufacturing output away from non-durables and toward durables.

The appreciated dollar and higher commodity prices have also led to a more widespread industrial reallocation in Canada. The higher commodity prices have started a resource boom, particularly in Alberta. The boom has led to rising resource industry employment, while manufacturing employment declined, and to rising service-sector employment. It has contributed to inter-provincial migration, and has greatly increased the purchasing power of Canadian incomes as terms of trade have improved.


You need to use the free Adobe Reader to view PDF documents. To view (open) these files, simply click on the link. To download (save) them, right-click on the link. Note that if you are using Internet Explorer or AOL, PDF documents sometimes do not open properly. See Troubleshooting PDFs. PDF documents may not be accessible by some devices. For more information, visit the Adobe website or contact us for assistance.