Economic Insights
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2017

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This article in the Economic Insights series provides users with an integrated summary of recent changes in output, employment, household demand, international trade and prices. Organized as a statistical summary of major indicators, the report is designed to inform about recent developments in the Canadian economy, highlighting major changes in the economic data during the first two quarters of 2017 and into the summer months. Unless otherwise noted, the tabulations presented in this report are based on seasonally adjusted data available in CANSIM on October 6, 2017.

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Overview

Economic activity continued to strengthen in the first half of 2017 as household spending, exports and business investment supported growth. Business outlays on non-residential structures, machinery and equipment, and intellectual property assets rose during the first two quarters of the year, following notable declines during 2015 and 2016.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased for eight consecutive months from November 2016 to June 2017 before stabilizing in July, with gains broadly based across industries. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and construction contributed to higher goods output during the first half of 2017, while wholesale trade, retail trade, and finance industries supported growth among services.    

Employment also continued to strengthen in the first half of 2017 on gains in full-time work. Higher employment among core-age workers accounted for about two-thirds of overall employment growth from January to June. British Columbia led employment growth among the provinces. Employment continued to increase in the third quarter, albeit at a more measured pace.     

Overall, real GDP growth, measured year-over-year, increased steadily during the winter and early spring, before rising above 4% in May and June. Annual employment growth strengthened to 1.9% year-over-year in June, before rising above 2% during the summer months. As a result, output growth at mid-year 2017 exceeded employment growth by the widest margin since mid-2014.

Despite the pace of economic growth, consumer price inflation decelerated during the first half of 2017, slowing from 2.1% in January to 1.0% in June.

Moreover, Canada posted a cumulative merchandise trade deficit of $7.8 billion over the first half of 2017, similar to the deficit over the last half of 2016. A larger net surplus for energy products in the first half of 2017 was offset by larger deficits for non-energy commodities.

Data table for Chart 1

Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 Real gross domestic product and Employment, calculated using year-over-year change (percent) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Real gross domestic product	Employment
	year-over-year change (percent)
2007
January	1.4	2.5
February	1.7	2.4
March	1.8	2.3
April	1.9	2.1
May	2.3	1.7
June	2.8	2.0
July	2.6	2.3
August	2.8	2.3
September	2.7	2.4
October	2.6	2.6
November	2.5	2.5
December	1.4	2.2
2008
January	2.0	2.0
February	1.3	2.1
March	1.2	1.8
April	1.2	2.0
May	0.8	1.8
June	0.7	1.5
July	1.1	1.1
August	0.7	1.2
September	0.9	1.3
October	0.7	1.1
November	-0.4	0.3
December	-1.4	0.1
2009
January	-2.2	-0.8
February	-2.6	-1.3
March	-3.5	-1.4
April	-4.0	-1.7
May	-4.1	-1.9
June	-4.2	-1.9
July	-4.4	-1.9
August	-4.4	-1.9
September	-3.7	-2.1
October	-3.5	-2.2
November	-1.9	-1.1
December	-0.3	-1.0
2010
January	0.8	0.0
February	1.9	0.4
March	3.2	0.6
April	3.4	1.3
May	4.0	1.6
June	4.1	2.1
July	4.1	2.0
August	4.5	2.1
September	3.7	1.7
October	4.1	1.8
November	3.9	1.5
December	4.4	1.8
2011
January	4.0	1.9
February	3.3	1.8
March	3.1	1.8
April	3.3	1.6
May	2.6	1.4
June	2.8	1.2
July	3.4	1.4
August	3.6	1.5
September	3.9	1.7
October	3.4	1.4
November	3.1	1.2
December	2.9	1.2
2012
January	2.6	0.7
February	2.5	0.7
March	2.4	1.1
April	2.7	1.5
May	2.9	1.4
June	2.5	1.3
July	2.1	1.0
August	1.3	1.2
September	1.0	1.3
October	1.0	1.5
November	1.2	1.7
December	0.7	1.8
2013
January	1.3	2.0
February	2.0	2.2
March	2.2	1.5
April	2.1	1.1
May	2.4	1.5
June	1.9	1.4
July	2.2	1.5
August	2.8	1.4
September	3.2	1.2
October	3.8	1.2
November	3.5	1.0
December	3.0	0.7
2014
January	2.5	0.7
February	2.6	0.6
March	2.4	0.9
April	2.6	0.7
May	2.8	0.4
June	3.5	0.5
July	2.9	0.7
August	2.3	0.4
September	2.4	0.5
October	2.3	0.8
November	2.1	0.7
December	2.9	0.6
2015
January	2.5	0.7
February	1.9	0.8
March	1.7	0.7
April	1.1	0.7
May	0.5	1.1
June	0.6	1.0
July	0.9	0.9
August	1.2	1.1
September	0.2	0.9
October	-0.1	0.8
November	0.3	0.7
December	0.2	0.9
2016
January	1.1	0.7
February	1.0	0.6
March	0.8	0.7
April	1.1	0.8
May	0.6	0.6
June	0.7	0.6
July	1.0	0.4
August	1.2	0.5
September	2.1	0.9
October	2.0	0.9
November	2.1	1.1
December	2.2	1.3
2017
January	2.2	1.5
February	2.4	1.6
March	3.2	1.5
April	3.4	1.5
May	4.6	1.8
June	4.4	1.9
July	3.8	2.1
August	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.1
September	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.8
.. not available for a specific reference period Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM tables 282-0087 and 379-0031.

Broad-based contributions to growth

The pace of economic growth strengthened during the first half of 2017, with the strongest cumulative growth over the first two quarters of the year since 2002. Gains during the first half were supported by household spending, exports and non-residential business investment. The economy has expanded for four consecutive quarters since wildfires in Northern Alberta weighed on growth during the second quarter of 2016. 

Real GDP rose 1.1% in the second quarter, following a 0.9% gain in the first quarter. In the United States, real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter, up from 0.3% to start the year. Economic growth in Canada has outpaced growth in the United States over the last four quarters.

Data table for Chart 2

Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2 Household expenditure, Government current expenditure, Non-residential business investment, Goods exports and Housing, calculated using index (Q1 2007=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Household expenditure	Government current expenditure	Non-residential business investment	Goods exports	Housing
	index (Q1 2007=100)
2007
Quarter 1	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Quarter 2	101.5	100.5	100.5	101.6	100.6
Quarter 3	102.4	101.9	100.9	99.7	100.3
Quarter 4	104.3	101.9	102.7	96.9	100.7
2008
Quarter 1	105.1	102.8	106.4	95.5	99.5
Quarter 2	105.2	105.1	106.6	96.3	97.2
Quarter 3	105.3	105.0	106.6	95.2	95.0
Quarter 4	104.0	106.5	101.3	89.9	89.5
2009
Quarter 1	103.7	106.6	85.7	81.4	83.7
Quarter 2	104.5	107.4	82.1	77.3	86.7
Quarter 3	105.7	108.0	82.8	80.1	90.2
Quarter 4	106.4	108.8	85.2	82.1	95.8
2010
Quarter 1	107.6	109.8	89.8	84.0	98.5
Quarter 2	108.5	109.7	94.1	87.3	97.3
Quarter 3	109.4	110.1	97.6	87.1	95.5
Quarter 4	110.4	110.8	102.5	89.5	94.8
2011
Quarter 1	110.6	110.9	105.4	89.8	96.8
Quarter 2	111.1	111.4	108.0	87.7	96.6
Quarter 3	111.5	111.8	108.4	93.3	99.1
Quarter 4	112.2	112.1	111.5	94.5	100.1
2012
Quarter 1	112.9	112.2	114.2	94.1	104.4
Quarter 2	113.0	111.9	117.8	93.9	103.9
Quarter 3	113.7	112.7	118.1	93.2	103.1
Quarter 4	114.3	112.6	120.6	93.1	103.0
2013
Quarter 1	115.0	111.5	122.5	95.2	102.3
Quarter 2	116.0	111.0	123.7	96.8	104.0
Quarter 3	116.9	111.5	124.5	95.9	103.4
Quarter 4	117.7	112.2	126.4	97.4	103.3
2014
Quarter 1	118.2	112.2	126.2	96.5	102.6
Quarter 2	119.4	112.6	128.1	102.7	105.3
Quarter 3	120.1	112.5	130.3	104.2	107.8
Quarter 4	120.9	112.3	128.4	104.0	108.3
2015
Quarter 1	120.9	113.7	119.4	103.7	109.3
Quarter 2	121.5	113.9	114.6	105.3	109.7
Quarter 3	122.4	114.3	111.9	107.0	110.3
Quarter 4	122.9	114.4	107.8	106.3	110.8
2016
Quarter 1	123.6	115.5	104.9	108.4	113.4
Quarter 2	124.3	116.8	103.8	103.7	113.8
Quarter 3	125.3	116.3	106.1	106.1	112.3
Quarter 4	126.2	116.7	99.7	106.3	114.0
2017
Quarter 1	127.6	117.0	103.0	106.6	117.4
Quarter 2	129.1	117.7	104.8	109.6	116.0
Note: Q1=first quarter. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 380-0064.

The pace of consumer spending in Canada accelerated in the first half of 2017, as household expenditures rose by 1.2% and 1.1% in the first and second quarters, respectively. This compares to 0.7% growth during the third and the fourth quarters of 2016. Spending on durables contributed to the growth during the first half, advancing by 2.3% in the second quarter following a 3.2% gain in the first. Expenditures on durables have increased notably over the last three quarters, supported by auto sales. Higher outlays on clothing and footwear and housing-related expenditures also contributed to growth.      

Exports of goods rose 2.8% in the second quarter, after edging up 0.3% in the first. Energy exports rose 9.2% in the second quarter on higher volumes of crude oil and crude bitumen, natural gas, and refined petroleum products. This followed a 0.7% decline in energy exports in the first quarter. Higher volumes of industrial machinery, equipment and parts, aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts, and motor vehicles and parts also contributed to higher exports in the second quarter. 

Import volumes strengthened during the first half of 2017. Goods imports rose 4.0% in the first quarter and 2.5% in the second. Imports of motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery and equipment, electronic and electrical equipment supported import volumes early in the year. Energy imports contributed to growth in both quarters, increasing 8.4% in the second.

Business investment increased

Non-residential business outlays on structures and machinery and equipment (M&E) supported growth during the first half of 2017, increasing 3.3% in the first quarter and 1.7% in the second. The two consecutive quarterly gains in early 2017 mark the first back-to-back increases in non-residential business investment since 2014. Nevertheless, combined business outlays on non-residential structures and machinery and equipment remain 18% below levels in mid-2014 prior to declines in crude oil prices.

Data table for Chart 3

Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3. The information is grouped by Quarters (appearing as row headers), Total business gross fixed capital formation, Residential structures, Non-residential structures, Machinery and equipment and Intellectual property products, calculated using index (Q1 2007=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Quarters	Total business gross fixed capital formation	Residential structures	Non-residential structures	Machinery and equipment	Intellectual property products
	index (Q1 2007=100)
2007
Quarter 1	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Quarter 2	100.6	100.6	99.8	101.3	100.7
Quarter 3	100.8	100.3	100.2	101.6	102.1
Quarter 4	102.1	100.7	100.5	105.0	104.5
2008
Quarter 1	104.0	99.5	107.2	105.4	107.6
Quarter 2	103.3	97.2	108.7	104.1	107.6
Quarter 3	102.2	95.0	109.3	103.3	105.8
Quarter 4	96.8	89.5	106.6	95.3	100.1
2009
Quarter 1	85.1	83.7	91.8	79.1	88.0
Quarter 2	83.9	86.7	85.7	77.9	85.4
Quarter 3	85.5	90.2	84.9	80.3	85.6
Quarter 4	89.0	95.8	85.7	84.3	87.7
2010
Quarter 1	92.9	98.5	93.9	84.9	91.8
Quarter 2	95.1	97.3	98.6	88.8	95.6
Quarter 3	96.5	95.5	104.7	89.2	97.6
Quarter 4	98.8	94.8	111.2	92.1	97.7
2011
Quarter 1	100.7	96.8	115.5	93.3	95.6
Quarter 2	102.6	96.6	114.6	100.2	101.0
Quarter 3	104.1	99.1	119.5	95.0	104.0
Quarter 4	106.1	100.1	124.0	96.5	104.1
2012
Quarter 1	109.1	104.4	127.3	98.3	104.7
Quarter 2	110.3	103.9	133.1	99.1	99.8
Quarter 3	110.2	103.1	133.7	99.0	100.7
Quarter 4	111.4	103.0	138.1	99.1	99.7
2013
Quarter 1	112.2	102.3	141.0	99.7	100.3
Quarter 2	113.1	104.0	143.0	99.8	97.7
Quarter 3	113.4	103.4	146.1	97.8	98.9
Quarter 4	114.4	103.3	147.4	100.4	99.1
2014
Quarter 1	113.3	102.6	149.3	97.4	93.0
Quarter 2	115.0	105.3	150.8	99.9	90.4
Quarter 3	116.9	107.8	151.6	103.9	88.4
Quarter 4	116.4	108.3	150.3	101.2	91.5
2015
Quarter 1	111.3	109.3	135.3	99.8	84.1
Quarter 2	108.8	109.7	128.9	97.0	82.9
Quarter 3	107.5	110.3	123.5	97.5	81.9
Quarter 4	105.6	110.8	118.2	95.0	81.7
2016
Quarter 1	105.0	113.4	113.6	94.1	81.3
Quarter 2	104.5	113.8	111.1	94.4	81.7
Quarter 3	104.8	112.3	118.8	90.4	78.0
Quarter 4	101.9	114.0	107.7	89.7	76.0
2017
Quarter 1	105.1	117.4	108.7	95.6	78.6
Quarter 2	105.7	116.0	111.3	96.4	80.3
Note: Q1=first quarter. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 380-0068.

Business outlays on non-residential structures rose 2.4% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 1.0% gain in the first. Higher spending on engineering structures supported the increase in both quarters. Business outlays on machinery and equipment rose 6.6% in the first quarter of the year, the largest quarterly increase in over five years. Investments in aircraft, industrial machinery, autos and communications equipment contributed to higher M&E outlays in early 2017. Spending on M&E moderated in the second quarter, increasing 0.9%.

Business investment in intellectual property products rose during the first half of 2017, advancing 2.1% in the second quarter following a 3.5% increase in the first. Spending on mineral exploration and evaluation rose in both quarters, following eight consecutive quarterly declines.

After a notable gain the first quarter (+2.9%), business outlays on residential structures declined in the second (-1.2%). The first-quarter gain was the largest quarterly increase in residential structures in five years. Lower spending in the second quarter reflected a 6.7% decline in ownership transfer costs due to lower activity in resale markets.

Following 1.3% growth in the first quarter, business sector labour productivity edged down (-0.1%) in the second as gains in hours worked (+1.4%) outpaced the growth in output. The quarterly increase in hours worked, supported by broad-based increases among services, was the largest since late 2003. Productivity in mining and oil and gas extraction declined during the first half of the year, reflecting sizable increases in hours worked in both quarters. After increasing in the first quarter, manufacturing productivity declined in the second as the pace of output growth slowed.   

Industrial capacity utilization rose to 85% in the second quarter, the highest level since the third quarter of 2007. After little change over the previous three quarters, capacity utilization in oil and gas extraction rose 3.3 percentage points to 84% in the second quarter. Capacity utilization in manufacturing also increased, rising to 84.2% in the second quarter.

The terms of trade deteriorated in the second quarter, weighing on real income growth for the first time since early 2016. Import prices rose 2.7% in the second quarter while export prices edged up 0.5%. Improvements in the terms of trade had made substantial contributions to the growth in real domestic income over the previous three quarters. Following a 1.9% increase to start the year, nominal GDP rose 0.7% in the second quarter as corporate earnings edged lower.    

Widespread gains across industrial sectors

The output of the goods sector advanced steadily in first half of 2017 with gains in five of the first six months. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction supported growth in both quarters, as did manufacturing and construction. Manufacturing output increased in four of the first six months of the year. Output in June was 2.4% higher than levels at year-end 2016, as machinery manufacturing, petroleum refineries  and primary metal manufacturing increased output during the first half of 2017.^{Note 1}

Data table for Chart 4

Data table for Chart 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 4. The information is grouped by Months (appearing as row headers), Mining, oil and gas, Construction, Manufacturing, Retail and Wholesale, calculated using index (January 2007=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Months	Mining, quarrying, oil and gas	Construction	Manufacturing	Retail	Wholesale
	index (January 2007=100)
2007
January	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
February	101.2	100.2	100.5	100.1	103.9
March	101.8	100.7	100.5	100.4	104.2
April	99.4	101.1	100.8	102.0	104.2
May	101.2	102.1	100.0	102.6	104.9
June	101.7	102.3	100.2	102.4	105.1
July	100.2	102.4	99.3	102.5	104.2
August	102.4	102.8	99.0	103.9	103.5
September	101.5	102.8	98.7	102.9	103.6
October	99.3	102.0	98.7	103.3	104.4
November	98.4	102.2	98.5	104.7	103.5
December	97.4	103.4	95.9	106.4	102.4
2008
January	98.7	104.8	95.6	107.0	103.7
February	97.4	105.1	95.9	106.1	102.3
March	99.0	104.8	94.3	106.2	103.4
April	98.6	103.7	95.6	106.6	103.0
May	96.7	105.1	96.1	106.5	103.6
June	98.3	104.7	95.5	106.9	104.3
July	101.0	104.7	95.9	106.4	104.7
August	100.2	104.5	94.2	106.6	104.2
September	98.4	105.1	94.2	107.4	104.0
October	99.2	105.8	92.8	106.3	102.8
November	97.5	104.3	91.2	104.0	100.0
December	94.2	102.1	87.2	101.3	97.0
2009
January	97.0	98.8	84.1	103.1	95.2
February	93.5	97.5	83.2	102.9	94.7
March	88.2	96.3	82.0	102.7	93.9
April	85.4	95.7	80.7	102.6	93.9
May	85.8	96.4	79.7	103.1	94.4
June	86.6	96.5	79.0	103.3	94.6
July	85.5	96.8	79.6	103.4	95.6
August	83.9	97.5	80.0	103.5	95.9
September	87.0	98.6	80.9	104.1	96.0
October	87.0	99.6	80.5	104.0	96.4
November	88.2	101.5	81.8	102.3	98.2
December	87.2	102.5	81.4	104.0	100.1
2010
January	90.0	104.3	82.3	105.6	101.3
February	92.8	104.8	83.4	105.6	100.7
March	94.0	105.2	84.7	107.8	101.5
April	93.6	105.6	84.6	105.4	101.4
May	98.3	105.4	85.0	105.0	101.5
June	97.7	105.9	86.1	105.7	102.4
July	97.5	106.1	86.1	106.0	101.3
August	97.1	106.8	86.0	106.4	103.2
September	95.5	107.1	85.4	106.4	103.6
October	98.9	107.5	85.3	106.0	104.4
November	100.1	107.8	84.8	107.7	106.0
December	102.4	108.0	86.2	107.1	108.0
2011
January	100.0	109.0	87.0	106.8	109.6
February	99.5	109.4	86.3	106.8	108.0
March	101.8	108.8	86.9	105.3	109.2
April	102.5	108.6	86.9	106.5	108.0
May	98.8	108.4	86.4	106.5	109.2
June	100.5	109.5	86.8	107.9	108.8
July	103.6	110.3	88.1	106.9	111.9
August	107.3	111.1	87.9	106.8	111.1
September	107.6	111.6	88.9	107.1	111.6
October	105.9	111.8	89.1	107.8	113.1
November	105.2	112.3	89.6	107.8	113.3
December	105.6	113.5	91.1	109.5	114.3
2012
January	106.2	114.7	90.8	108.4	112.6
February	102.9	115.6	89.2	107.3	113.7
March	102.6	117.3	89.6	107.8	114.7
April	103.0	118.7	90.3	106.7	115.2
May	102.2	118.5	89.9	107.0	114.3
June	100.4	119.2	89.9	107.1	114.7
July	99.4	119.4	89.9	108.2	115.2
August	97.3	119.7	89.5	107.3	114.7
September	97.8	120.4	88.4	107.7	114.5
October	99.4	121.4	87.4	107.5	113.9
November	101.6	121.9	88.3	108.2	115.8
December	102.0	122.5	87.2	108.1	115.1
2013
January	102.6	122.4	88.3	110.8	116.7
February	105.2	122.9	88.7	110.3	117.6
March	106.3	123.8	89.0	110.9	117.6
April	105.9	124.4	88.4	112.0	118.2
May	105.2	124.9	88.5	114.0	119.2
June	103.9	122.3	88.4	112.7	117.1
July	106.1	124.8	88.1	113.9	120.4
August	107.6	125.1	88.5	115.1	120.1
September	108.3	125.0	89.7	115.1	120.8
October	109.3	125.4	90.6	116.3	121.9
November	108.8	125.7	90.3	116.5	122.5
December	109.0	124.6	88.4	115.8	120.3
2014
January	109.9	125.1	89.0	115.7	119.6
February	111.5	125.7	90.7	115.9	121.7
March	113.5	125.3	90.0	116.3	122.3
April	116.7	125.3	90.3	116.9	122.1
May	116.9	127.0	91.8	117.0	123.8
June	117.4	127.9	92.5	118.1	124.6
July	114.3	128.7	92.8	118.5	124.2
August	109.9	127.9	91.6	118.2	125.3
September	113.6	128.0	92.3	118.4	127.8
October	115.4	128.7	92.5	118.5	126.0
November	116.1	128.5	91.7	119.2	125.0
December	114.4	127.5	93.5	119.2	127.0
2015
January	113.6	125.5	92.3	116.9	124.7
February	112.1	123.6	91.3	118.7	124.6
March	109.5	122.6	92.1	120.0	125.0
April	108.2	121.6	91.6	118.9	126.6
May	108.0	122.0	91.3	119.1	124.9
June	111.2	121.1	90.8	120.2	125.8
July	113.3	120.4	91.5	120.5	125.3
August	113.6	120.7	92.5	120.2	124.6
September	107.2	119.9	91.5	121.2	123.9
October	107.3	119.1	91.1	120.7	125.2
November	109.0	118.7	91.9	122.4	126.2
December	109.1	118.4	92.4	120.9	126.6
2016
January	109.7	118.7	93.4	121.5	128.9
February	108.8	118.5	92.7	123.9	125.7
March	107.2	117.9	92.1	122.3	124.9
April	104.3	118.1	92.6	122.5	125.7
May	97.7	117.1	90.8	122.5	126.0
June	101.8	116.5	92.1	121.6	126.9
July	107.4	116.7	92.5	122.5	126.7
August	109.8	116.0	92.7	122.6	127.3
September	112.4	116.7	93.0	123.0	126.2
October	111.9	115.6	91.9	124.8	128.3
November	114.5	117.1	93.2	125.7	128.3
December	113.7	117.9	94.1	124.8	130.4
2017
January	116.6	118.2	94.6	127.2	132.5
February	116.4	118.7	94.0	127.5	132.7
March	116.6	119.5	95.1	128.8	134.0
April	117.9	119.5	95.0	129.4	134.5
May	123.1	119.1	95.9	130.2	135.7
June	123.1	121.1	96.3	131.2	135.1
July	121.6	120.6	96.0	131.0	137.8
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 379-0031.

Construction output advanced steadily from January to March, and then rose 1.7% in June as non-residential, residential and engineering construction all advanced. The notable gain in June followed lower non-residential construction activity in May due in part to the strike by unionized construction workers in Quebec. Non-residential output in June rebounded to 2016 year-end levels.

After gains from January to March, residential construction edged lower in April and May before strengthening in June. Residential construction at mid-year was 3% higher than at year-end 2016.

Following sharp declines as oil prices fell in 2015 and 2016, engineering construction posted gains in four of the first six months of 2017. As of June, output in this sector remained 22% below mid-2014 levels. 

The pace of growth in the service sector accelerated during the first half of 2017, supported by gains in wholesale, retail, transportation and warehousing, finance and insurance, and professional, scientific and technical services. Wholesale trade contributed significantly to higher services output in the first quarter, while finance and insurance industries supported growth in the second. The output of real estate agents and brokers was down in the second quarter as resale housing activity declined in the Greater Toronto Area.

Conventional oil and gas extraction expanded output

Conventional oil and gas extraction rose during five of the first six months of 2017. The output of conventional producers in June was 10% higher than levels at year-end 2016. Non-conventional oil extraction rose 5% from December to June, as production disruptions in the oil sands weighed on non-conventional output in March and April, prior to the return to higher levels in May. Non-conventional oil extraction in June was up 36% year-over-year following recent lows in the spring of 2016 due to wildfires in Northern Alberta.

Data table for Chart 5

Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 5 Conventional oil and gas extraction, Non-conventional oil extraction, Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction, Crude oil and other pipeline transportation and Petroleum refineries, calculated using index (January 2007=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Conventional oil and gas extraction	Non-conventional oil extraction	Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction	Crude oil and other pipeline transportation	Petroleum refineries
	index (January 2007=100)
2007
January	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
February	100.2	108.1	98.8	97.7	99.8
March	100.3	112.5	95.5	96.6	100.7
April	103.4	102.3	80.3	96.8	102.7
May	103.7	100.0	88.1	96.1	100.6
June	105.5	94.4	95.1	93.2	101.5
July	99.5	101.6	100.9	96.6	104.6
August	100.8	110.6	94.9	95.3	102.1
September	101.0	106.4	94.1	94.8	101.6
October	99.4	105.1	90.8	94.0	101.4
November	98.3	101.8	93.4	93.6	98.9
December	97.9	93.2	91.6	91.7	100.3
2008
January	95.7	104.9	94.3	92.3	99.8
February	94.7	102.5	92.2	91.7	97.4
March	95.9	105.7	93.3	90.6	91.6
April	97.5	101.6	89.4	89.4	97.6
May	95.4	97.9	90.3	91.7	98.3
June	93.5	105.2	106.8	89.4	97.9
July	97.2	107.9	111.6	86.8	96.4
August	94.5	110.9	111.6	87.6	94.0
September	94.4	106.3	108.2	86.1	93.9
October	95.9	107.3	112.2	89.8	96.1
November	93.6	109.4	110.0	88.1	97.9
December	91.1	112.9	89.7	90.7	98.2
2009
January	92.1	115.1	91.7	88.3	100.2
February	91.4	121.6	86.4	85.2	102.4
March	88.5	118.2	64.7	84.3	103.0
April	85.9	111.9	69.9	83.2	98.2
May	82.4	124.7	68.1	80.7	103.6
June	85.8	127.2	67.2	84.3	101.2
July	86.3	128.8	62.4	83.4	100.7
August	81.7	122.8	68.7	82.8	100.4
September	82.1	127.7	72.7	86.4	95.1
October	81.3	130.1	70.2	87.3	94.6
November	82.9	130.4	80.3	87.8	98.4
December	81.2	120.8	92.0	85.7	99.6
2010
January	83.6	113.8	90.3	82.0	100.9
February	82.4	127.1	98.0	81.4	94.6
March	83.6	131.8	89.6	87.6	94.5
April	83.8	135.1	87.2	85.8	91.4
May	85.4	144.8	97.8	87.9	94.4
June	85.3	145.7	94.3	87.8	98.3
July	86.1	140.3	94.2	89.8	95.2
August	88.4	136.5	88.7	90.0	93.7
September	87.3	131.9	81.0	80.1	96.9
October	86.6	139.0	92.8	82.6	84.0
November	86.7	148.9	92.9	87.7	89.1
December	88.4	153.5	97.6	87.6	92.0
2011
January	88.4	146.5	89.1	97.8	88.0
February	86.3	148.5	88.9	102.6	87.6
March	87.6	146.8	104.3	99.2	88.6
April	88.1	151.6	101.8	95.2	89.9
May	86.9	135.6	102.8	94.5	78.8
June	85.4	145.7	103.2	96.5	83.3
July	87.7	151.0	105.1	100.9	84.0
August	89.5	154.0	123.7	106.1	86.7
September	89.9	155.4	123.9	106.2	95.1
October	89.1	151.4	124.1	106.2	91.1
November	87.9	151.7	123.7	104.0	89.3
December	88.0	153.1	120.6	105.7	88.4
2012
January	87.8	160.8	121.7	110.9	87.4
February	86.0	154.8	124.0	109.0	89.7
March	85.6	145.8	127.2	109.9	86.6
April	84.8	157.4	117.8	113.5	90.8
May	82.4	162.9	108.7	117.1	88.5
June	79.7	158.8	108.6	117.2	86.8
July	78.4	162.0	104.5	115.3	91.4
August	76.6	159.1	102.8	113.4	89.6
September	76.5	156.9	107.2	111.0	87.8
October	81.0	160.4	102.4	104.8	94.3
November	83.1	156.9	105.2	109.4	93.5
December	81.6	162.6	107.7	114.9	93.1
2013
January	82.1	161.1	112.2	115.9	94.3
February	83.0	163.0	118.5	116.2	90.4
March	83.7	168.9	114.1	119.0	91.3
April	83.6	167.0	115.0	117.2	91.2
May	85.1	162.5	109.9	114.8	82.2
June	85.5	161.9	104.7	115.7	95.4
July	86.9	163.9	110.7	114.7	89.1
August	87.0	170.8	115.7	118.1	91.2
September	87.2	171.8	116.7	119.4	94.7
October	85.9	173.4	119.3	124.5	88.8
November	85.7	178.9	111.1	123.9	92.9
December	86.8	180.1	108.2	117.6	87.7
2014
January	87.0	177.6	119.7	120.5	87.8
February	88.0	175.6	124.5	122.6	92.8
March	87.9	181.0	132.5	124.2	82.0
April	87.5	188.9	143.6	124.6	84.2
May	88.6	194.3	137.4	132.4	88.8
June	90.2	193.9	131.6	134.0	98.6
July	89.4	183.8	126.4	131.7	93.1
August	86.0	176.9	117.0	129.5	90.2
September	88.2	189.4	117.3	132.0	83.9
October	89.7	193.1	120.3	132.4	87.6
November	90.6	189.2	127.0	133.1	91.9
December	87.6	187.6	127.0	133.9	93.1
2015
January	88.9	199.4	101.8	132.1	90.9
February	88.2	205.4	84.9	132.4	89.6
March	86.4	203.0	71.9	131.2	94.3
April	85.9	192.8	82.2	140.5	92.8
May	83.9	195.1	89.4	136.9	96.6
June	84.3	206.0	90.9	138.2	87.3
July	84.0	218.7	86.9	145.0	87.9
August	84.5	216.0	87.6	148.2	92.9
September	84.8	189.4	75.8	146.9	90.9
October	83.3	197.9	74.1	142.9	90.1
November	84.5	210.5	71.4	146.5	86.4
December	84.6	208.5	69.8	149.8	89.9
2016
January	85.9	208.4	69.0	154.5	91.6
February	85.2	206.2	65.6	156.3	90.6
March	85.3	210.1	55.8	150.1	90.6
April	86.5	194.3	52.3	144.0	94.4
May	87.5	148.9	53.3	138.0	81.7
June	86.5	171.0	54.7	141.5	89.3
July	87.2	208.6	54.4	146.5	96.5
August	89.0	211.5	57.6	150.9	91.4
September	90.5	223.0	59.6	153.7	90.2
October	87.9	222.6	62.0	153.2	84.7
November	88.3	232.0	65.7	156.6	87.5
December	86.2	220.5	76.5	152.6	87.6
2017
January	88.2	225.1	84.0	154.7	92.7
February	87.4	227.8	88.3	154.5	91.9
March	89.7	218.7	97.9	154.8	95.4
April	90.4	210.5	109.7	155.3	94.7
May	93.6	237.0	103.9	162.6	97.9
June	94.7	232.3	101.9	162.3	98.7
July	94.0	225.5	100.7	161.1	98.5
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 379-0031.

Businesses that provide support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction, including rigging and drilling services, continued to increase output in the first half of 2017, as production rose from January to April, prior to declines into mid-year. These activities have strengthened considerably over the last year, following steep declines during 2015 and early 2016 as oil prices trended lower. In June, the output of businesses that provide support activities for resource extraction was 33% higher than at year-end 2016, and 86% higher than in mid-2016.

More recently, real GDP was unchanged in July as gains in wholesale, utilities and public sector industries were offset by declines in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction manufacturing, construction, and finance.

Employment continued to strengthen

Total employment rose by 186,000 (+1.0%) in the first six months of 2017, led by gains in full-time work and among core-age individuals (aged 25 to 54). Gains among private sector employees accounted for about one-half of the total increase. Higher employment in services, supported by gains in professional, scientific and technical services and in health care and social assistance, accounted for over two-thirds of the overall increase.

Data table for Chart 6

Data table for Chart 6
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 6 Full-time and Part-time, calculated using year-over-year change (thousands of persons) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Full-time	Part-time
	year-over-year change (thousands of persons)
2007
January	287.7	113.0
February	324.8	58.0
March	308.7	71.8
April	247.1	88.8
May	160.5	121.6
June	332.8	2.8
July	314.7	61.6
August	267.5	110.7
September	299.5	98.9
October	270.1	161.4
November	296.1	124.3
December	265.0	94.4
2008
January	279.7	51.6
February	311.5	44.1
March	249.1	43.0
April	289.7	37.1
May	204.1	104.5
June	83.2	161.4
July	86.0	107.2
August	139.9	64.3
September	114.5	106.1
October	124.7	68.9
November	23.2	32.5
December	-50.2	71.5
2009
January	-185.2	55.8
February	-365.5	138.1
March	-369.0	138.7
April	-391.4	98.5
May	-416.0	92.2
June	-436.9	110.3
July	-402.7	85.2
August	-482.6	154.8
September	-372.1	10.8
October	-364.1	-18.3
November	-221.0	40.8
December	-166.0	1.5
2010
January	-67.4	72.3
February	118.4	-43.7
March	89.3	16.1
April	138.3	86.7
May	230.7	35.2
June	303.0	42.6
July	118.4	218.0
August	206.9	135.4
September	134.8	144.3
October	159.5	147.3
November	113.6	143.9
December	180.3	127.5
2011
January	209.7	105.6
February	96.4	198.5
March	260.8	44.5
April	236.1	28.9
May	193.8	39.2
June	186.6	23.6
July	382.9	-144.1
August	353.2	-102.2
September	360.4	-65.8
October	232.8	6.5
November	269.2	-66.7
December	231.2	-30.2
2012
January	190.4	-68.5
February	229.0	-106.1
March	212.3	-18.2
April	250.8	-0.1
May	225.5	21.2
June	237.4	-14.8
July	213.0	-33.9
August	203.5	-2.9
September	188.4	38.8
October	288.2	-21.4
November	253.4	48.0
December	273.2	38.8
2013
January	289.5	62.1
February	327.2	50.4
March	195.4	57.6
April	183.2	9.7
May	275.1	-21.6
June	199.9	36.3
July	159.2	96.4
August	153.5	93.8
September	167.6	49.2
October	172.5	34.1
November	136.4	47.2
December	52.4	78.5
2014
January	64.7	64.7
February	72.0	42.0
March	105.6	55.2
April	52.2	67.2
May	-70.5	137.4
June	27.5	58.6
July	22.3	100.8
August	-6.2	73.4
September	24.1	68.3
October	28.1	110.4
November	67.1	48.3
December	145.5	-37.4
2015
January	108.3	21.9
February	136.4	-1.7
March	122.9	8.6
April	168.1	-35.3
May	238.4	-42.3
June	242.9	-66.8
July	262.1	-100.7
August	317.7	-123.5
September	200.4	-39.9
October	183.5	-43.5
November	202.6	-80.2
December	144.7	7.8
2016
January	167.6	-47.1
February	59.4	51.5
March	118.2	10.8
April	82.7	57.3
May	112.5	-9.2
June	27.2	82.2
July	-43.1	108.5
August	-35.2	119.6
September	54.6	98.5
October	23.6	141.4
November	-25.5	222.6
December	73.5	155.6
2017
January	86.2	189.9
February	235.4	52.7
March	223.1	53.3
April	189.6	86.1
May	220.9	96.0
June	248.2	102.5
July	353.5	34.0
August	213.4	160.8
September	288.6	31.1
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087.

Data table for Chart 7

Data table for Chart 7
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 7 Total employed, all industries, Goods-producing sector and Services-producing sector, calculated using year-over-year change (thousands of persons) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Total employed, all industries	Goods-producing sector	Services-producing sector
	year-over-year change (thousands of persons)
2007
January	400.7	81.5	319.2
February	382.8	23.4	359.3
March	380.5	1.6	378.8
April	335.9	-34.2	370.0
May	282.2	-16.4	298.6
June	335.6	-17.9	353.6
July	376.2	12.3	363.9
August	378.2	45.2	333.0
September	398.4	8.8	389.6
October	431.5	-9.0	440.5
November	420.3	-35.6	456.0
December	359.4	-62.7	422.0
2008
January	331.3	-47.5	378.8
February	355.6	-10.9	366.5
March	292.1	4.7	287.4
April	326.7	26.2	300.6
May	308.6	22.9	285.7
June	244.6	28.7	215.9
July	193.1	5.3	187.8
August	204.2	-7.8	212.0
September	220.5	16.9	203.6
October	193.5	5.3	188.2
November	55.7	-26.1	81.8
December	21.3	-28.6	49.9
2009
January	-129.4	-149.5	20.1
February	-227.4	-212.3	-15.1
March	-230.3	-221.5	-8.8
April	-292.9	-269.1	-23.8
May	-323.9	-315.5	-8.4
June	-326.6	-308.0	-18.6
July	-317.3	-301.2	-16.2
August	-327.8	-303.2	-24.6
September	-361.3	-280.4	-80.9
October	-382.2	-267.6	-114.7
November	-180.2	-225.1	44.9
December	-164.5	-216.8	52.3
2010
January	4.9	-118.8	123.7
February	74.7	-65.9	140.5
March	105.4	-55.1	160.6
April	225.1	-5.3	230.4
May	266.0	51.7	214.3
June	345.6	66.7	278.9
July	336.3	50.0	286.4
August	342.3	47.3	295.0
September	279.1	0.9	278.2
October	306.8	18.1	288.8
November	257.4	35.1	222.3
December	307.9	55.0	252.8
2011
January	315.4	78.2	237.2
February	294.9	86.1	208.9
March	305.4	104.8	200.5
April	265.0	91.1	173.9
May	232.9	76.1	156.9
June	210.2	67.4	142.9
July	238.8	73.1	165.7
August	250.9	72.9	178.0
September	294.6	84.3	210.2
October	239.3	63.7	175.6
November	202.6	70.7	131.9
December	200.8	59.9	141.0
2012
January	121.9	22.0	99.8
February	122.9	31.7	91.2
March	194.0	36.0	158.0
April	250.7	81.5	169.2
May	246.7	73.1	173.5
June	222.7	84.0	138.6
July	179.2	91.0	88.1
August	200.6	92.5	108.1
September	227.2	110.8	116.5
October	266.7	107.6	159.0
November	301.4	96.2	205.2
December	312.1	103.6	208.5
2013
January	351.4	92.5	259.0
February	377.6	75.6	302.0
March	253.0	58.6	194.4
April	192.9	28.3	164.5
May	253.6	32.4	221.2
June	236.0	21.7	214.3
July	255.5	14.0	241.6
August	247.4	16.2	231.2
September	216.8	-0.9	217.7
October	206.6	18.2	188.5
November	183.5	-10.6	194.1
December	130.9	-50.1	181.0
2014
January	129.4	2.7	126.8
February	114.0	-7.4	121.3
March	160.7	17.9	142.8
April	119.4	-27.3	146.8
May	66.8	-45.8	112.6
June	86.2	-19.9	106.2
July	123.1	-20.9	144.0
August	67.3	-43.8	111.0
September	92.4	-24.4	116.8
October	138.5	-12.5	151.0
November	115.5	-9.2	124.8
December	108.2	25.2	83.0
2015
January	130.3	0.9	129.2
February	134.7	-32.4	167.2
March	131.6	-57.2	188.9
April	132.7	-29.3	162.0
May	196.1	6.8	189.3
June	176.1	-10.3	186.3
July	161.5	-26.7	188.2
August	194.1	-10.3	204.5
September	160.5	-25.5	186.0
October	140.0	-58.4	198.4
November	122.4	-6.7	129.0
December	152.4	-18.8	171.2
2016
January	120.5	-46.8	167.4
February	110.9	26.9	84.0
March	129.0	1.6	127.3
April	140.2	-31.0	171.2
May	103.3	-32.3	135.6
June	109.3	-71.2	180.5
July	65.3	-61.3	126.6
August	84.3	-47.8	132.1
September	153.1	-35.3	188.3
October	165.0	1.0	164.0
November	197.1	-57.7	254.8
December	229.0	-53.5	282.6
2017
January	276.1	-22.1	298.2
February	288.1	-77.2	365.3
March	276.4	-24.2	300.6
April	275.7	10.4	265.3
May	316.8	21.7	295.2
June	350.7	74.6	276.2
July	387.6	81.0	306.6
August	374.3	56.2	318.1
September	319.7	53.9	265.9
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0088.

Employment in the goods sector rose by 56,000 in the first half of 2017, led by gains in manufacturing. British Columbia had the strongest employment increase among the provinces. Overall employment in British Columbia rose by 78,000 during the first six months of the year, about twice the net increase reported in both Quebec and Ontario. The growth in British Columbia was all in full-time work, and supported by gains among core-age individuals and private sector employees.

Data table for Chart 8

Data table for Chart 8
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 8 Private sector employees, Public sector employees and Self-employed, calculated using year-over-year change (thousands of persons) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Private sector employees	Public sector employees	Self-employed
	year-over-year change (thousands of persons)
2007
January	388.8	6.6	5.3
February	341.8	14.3	26.7
March	287.9	45.1	47.5
April	226.9	59.3	49.7
May	95.9	46.7	139.5
June	95.5	75.0	165.2
July	163.3	63.1	149.8
August	146.7	104.3	127.1
September	156.2	144.5	97.7
October	116.2	174.7	140.6
November	117.5	204.0	98.9
December	52.3	219.9	87.2
2008
January	83.7	179.3	68.2
February	117.4	180.9	57.4
March	92.2	148.1	51.9
April	118.3	159.1	49.4
May	186.6	126.1	-4.1
June	138.9	110.8	-5.1
July	48.5	125.8	19.0
August	53.1	100.0	51.2
September	78.7	42.8	99.0
October	60.9	60.5	72.1
November	-14.6	-10.1	80.4
December	-2.7	-3.3	27.3
2009
January	-186.7	-4.2	61.6
February	-238.3	-23.0	33.7
March	-254.9	-19.3	43.8
April	-314.5	-18.6	40.0
May	-359.5	8.4	27.3
June	-416.0	4.2	85.2
July	-389.4	4.4	67.6
August	-327.8	-26.2	26.2
September	-401.7	37.6	2.7
October	-382.1	-27.2	27.1
November	-286.0	61.8	44.0
December	-277.3	29.3	83.5
2010
January	-77.2	55.7	26.4
February	-56.8	89.4	42.1
March	-6.9	75.1	37.2
April	146.6	48.3	30.3
May	215.2	31.6	19.2
June	333.7	50.2	-38.3
July	315.7	35.4	-14.7
August	248.4	89.5	4.3
September	276.8	46.3	-43.9
October	317.8	57.0	-68.0
November	282.4	21.5	-46.5
December	340.9	49.0	-82.0
2011
January	296.5	67.8	-48.9
February	287.5	52.7	-45.2
March	291.8	54.9	-41.4
April	242.3	68.8	-46.1
May	196.8	59.4	-23.3
June	177.7	65.0	-32.4
July	242.2	33.8	-37.4
August	255.7	25.3	-29.9
September	238.5	41.5	14.6
October	179.5	37.2	22.6
November	176.4	48.8	-22.6
December	153.4	5.7	41.8
2012
January	103.7	4.2	14.0
February	152.4	-22.4	-7.1
March	188.4	4.5	1.2
April	255.2	3.3	-7.7
May	216.8	-3.1	33.0
June	126.0	22.7	73.8
July	118.1	60.6	0.6
August	164.7	52.2	-16.3
September	180.3	24.9	21.9
October	165.7	60.3	40.7
November	173.5	65.2	62.7
December	237.0	90.2	-15.2
2013
January	248.8	69.5	33.1
February	222.2	93.8	61.6
March	102.5	77.3	73.2
April	7.5	97.0	88.3
May	73.5	117.7	62.4
June	169.4	46.6	20.2
July	175.1	-17.5	97.9
August	163.1	-28.4	112.6
September	147.8	17.8	51.3
October	175.1	30.8	0.7
November	213.5	-17.7	-12.3
December	99.1	1.9	29.9
2014
January	149.7	-9.0	-11.3
February	135.0	-12.2	-8.8
March	195.5	-15.0	-19.8
April	173.3	-50.6	-3.3
May	155.2	-57.3	-31.0
June	110.5	-28.2	3.9
July	75.9	88.3	-41.1
August	21.8	57.4	-11.9
September	75.0	51.7	-34.3
October	142.1	-34.8	31.2
November	46.3	23.1	46.2
December	81.8	10.2	16.2
2015
January	52.8	14.9	62.6
February	35.8	45.4	53.4
March	24.2	70.7	36.7
April	65.1	64.9	2.7
May	119.9	40.8	35.2
June	103.5	82.3	-9.8
July	65.9	36.9	58.6
August	122.0	70.8	1.2
September	77.6	19.5	63.4
October	33.5	100.5	6.0
November	40.2	54.4	27.7
December	29.5	38.1	84.7
2016
January	26.9	59.5	34.1
February	62.0	12.7	36.3
March	116.4	-14.2	26.8
April	108.2	14.3	17.6
May	45.3	63.6	-5.5
June	64.6	-0.5	45.2
July	105.1	-46.5	6.9
August	97.0	0.0	-12.5
September	113.1	25.2	14.8
October	119.4	12.1	33.5
November	179.8	38.9	-21.6
December	229.0	75.0	-74.8
2017
January	256.5	67.7	-48.0
February	253.0	77.9	-42.8
March	220.1	67.1	-10.8
April	151.6	92.0	32.2
May	213.4	76.5	27.0
June	227.3	104.5	19.0
July	221.2	134.5	31.7
August	196.0	77.4	100.8
September	161.8	102.7	55.1
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0089.

The national unemployment rate edged lower during the first half of 2017, declining from 6.8% at the start of the year to 6.5% in June. The unemployment rate in Alberta declined from 8.8% in January to 7.4% in June, as employment in the province edged higher in the first half (+31,000). The unemployment rate in British Columbia averaged 5.4% during the first six months of the year, compared to 6.3% in Ontario and Quebec.  

More recently, employment growth moderated in the third quarter (+43,000), supported by increases in self-employment and in full-time work. Employment in Ontario strengthened during the third quarter. The national unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in August, the lowest level since October 2008, and remained at 6.2% in September.

Trade deficits widened in mid-2017

Canada posted a cumulative merchandise trade deficit of $7.8 billion over the first half of 2017, similar to the cumulative deficit ($8.3 billion) during the last half of 2016. A larger net surplus for energy products in the first half was offset by larger deficits for non-energy products including consumer goods, aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts, electronic and electrical equipment, and motor vehicles and parts. After posting modest trade deficits from February to May, the monthly trade deficit rose to $3.7 billion in June on a lower surplus for energy products.

Data table for Chart 9

Data table for Chart 9
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 9 Total, Energy and Non-Energy, calculated using billions of dollars units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Total	Energy	Non-Energy
	billions of dollars
2007
January	4647.9	3661.8	986.1
February	4037.6	4812.4	-774.8
March	4441.1	4193.0	248.1
April	5570.9	4438.5	1132.4
May	5337.1	4136.4	1200.7
June	3770.9	3548.1	222.8
July	2559.8	3207.4	-647.6
August	3788.6	3916.3	-127.7
September	2612.9	3965.4	-1352.5
October	3092.5	4618.3	-1525.8
November	3773.7	4567.6	-793.9
December	1961.5	4089.5	-2128.0
2008
January	2484.8	4284.3	-1799.5
February	3784.1	5327.5	-1543.4
March	5727.2	6351.2	-624.0
April	4976.0	6000.4	-1024.4
May	5623.7	6998.3	-1374.6
June	5060.8	6496.8	-1436.0
July	5592.2	6548.1	-955.9
August	5679.9	6605.1	-925.2
September	3447.8	5803.9	-2356.1
October	2610.1	4741.2	-2131.1
November	386.6	4169.8	-3783.2
December	-1703.6	2902.7	-4606.3
2009
January	-1767.1	3093.6	-4860.7
February	-44.7	3250.4	-3295.1
March	1079.3	3801.7	-2722.4
April	-676.2	2969.5	-3645.7
May	-1543.6	2700.0	-4243.6
June	97.3	3649.4	-3552.1
July	-782.4	3160.4	-3942.8
August	-1561.3	3269.5	-4830.8
September	-821.4	3775.6	-4597.0
October	360.0	4086.1	-3726.1
November	-334.5	4354.9	-4689.4
December	-778.8	4014.9	-4793.7
2010
January	394.0	4346.7	-3952.7
February	61.2	4467.2	-4406.0
March	-1255.8	3732.8	-4988.6
April	109.6	3842.6	-3733.0
May	-860.2	3779.8	-4640.0
June	-1396.2	3765.0	-5161.2
July	-2071.0	3452.0	-5523.0
August	-1771.5	2890.1	-4661.6
September	-2333.8	3439.4	-5773.2
October	-1182.5	3685.1	-4867.6
November	-512.8	3775.6	-4288.4
December	1115.7	4789.2	-3673.5
2011
January	744.1	4842.6	-4098.5
February	-48.5	4431.9	-4480.4
March	-999.5	3881.3	-4880.8
April	-239.7	4494.0	-4733.7
May	-1086.0	4053.7	-5139.7
June	-1114.5	4526.6	-5641.1
July	148.8	4678.2	-4529.4
August	208.8	4744.0	-4535.2
September	1097.8	5199.1	-4101.3
October	-840.1	4877.8	-5717.9
November	575.3	5305.7	-4730.4
December	2121.1	6015.9	-3894.8
2012
January	-34.7	5887.1	-5921.8
February	-1.0	5450.7	-5451.7
March	-1162.1	5013.9	-6176.0
April	-740.9	5081.4	-5822.3
May	-1386.6	4092.9	-5479.5
June	-2337.8	4804.3	-7142.1
July	-3042.0	3771.5	-6813.5
August	-1076.3	4301.2	-5377.5
September	-1051.1	4810.8	-5861.9
October	-379.3	4837.1	-5216.4
November	-1673.3	4729.1	-6402.4
December	-404.0	4718.1	-5122.1
2013
January	-882.6	4880.9	-5763.5
February	-690.4	5275.8	-5966.2
March	-183.1	5617.8	-5800.9
April	-153.1	5437.0	-5590.1
May	-820.4	5240.3	-6060.7
June	-444.0	5383.7	-5827.7
July	-1656.5	5890.5	-7547.0
August	-797.6	6641.7	-7439.3
September	-35.1	6693.6	-6728.7
October	-371.7	6469.5	-6841.2
November	-1267.6	5840.2	-7107.8
December	-843.3	6154.7	-6998.0
2014
January	-514.9	7299.1	-7814.0
February	784.7	8278.6	-7493.9
March	1594.1	8556.4	-6962.3
April	287.1	7318.5	-7031.4
May	492.1	7457.4	-6965.3
June	1231.0	7377.6	-6146.6
July	1159.0	6905.9	-5746.9
August	667.4	7077.2	-6409.8
September	125.9	6707.6	-6581.7
October	-489.0	6759.0	-7248.0
November	-457.6	6062.5	-6520.1
December	-1029.9	5339.2	-6369.1
2015
January	-1901.9	5020.9	-6922.8
February	-1624.2	5230.9	-6855.1
March	-3143.5	4499.6	-7643.1
April	-2458.2	4609.8	-7068.0
May	-2745.9	4562.1	-7308.0
June	-558.0	4817.9	-5375.9
July	-962.2	4455.3	-5417.5
August	-2285.3	4085.9	-6371.2
September	-2056.0	3998.1	-6054.1
October	-2266.9	4272.7	-6539.6
November	-2081.1	3585.4	-5666.5
December	-918.4	3849.5	-4767.9
2016
January	-1354.1	3506.8	-4860.9
February	-2352.5	2928.7	-5281.2
March	-3018.3	2921.6	-5939.9
April	-3151.4	3174.9	-6326.3
May	-3841.3	2766.2	-6607.5
June	-3990.0	2806.1	-6796.1
July	-2175.8	2924.0	-5099.8
August	-1927.9	3625.6	-5553.5
September	-4256.7	3911.0	-8167.7
October	-1380.9	4391.7	-5772.6
November	1107.3	5000.0	-3892.7
December	342.0	6229.3	-5887.3
2017
January	92.1	5656.4	-5564.3
February	-1381.9	5367.3	-6749.2
March	-734.3	5939.0	-6673.3
April	-1004.6	5821.8	-6826.4
May	-1075.5	5366.4	-6441.9
June	-3693.2	4678.0	-8371.2
July	-2982.7	4568.4	-7551.1
August	-3413.4	4759.9	-8173.3
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 228-0059.

Energy exports during the first six months of 2017 totalled $49.1 billion, an increase of 20% from combined energy exports during the second half of last year. Exports of non-energy products rose 2.8% in the first half of 2017, reflecting widespread gains across commodities. Higher exports of metals and non-metallic mineral products, motor vehicles, and industrial machinery, equipment and parts supported the increase in non-energy exports, while exports of consumer goods and aircraft product and parts declined.

Non-energy imports strengthened during the first half of the year. Total non-energy imports during the first six months of 2017 were 5% higher than in the second half of last year. Imports of motor vehicles and parts contributed to the gain supported by higher shipments of tires, motor vehicle engines and parts. Imports of consumer products also strengthened on higher shipments of pharmaceuticals and clothing. Imports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts were 29% higher in the first half of the year, as ships, locomotives, railway rolling stock, and rapid transit equipment posted notable gains.

More recently, the trade deficit narrowed to $3.0 billion in July as exports and imports fell on broad-based declines across commodities. Both energy and non-energy trade declined for the second consecutive month. The trade deficit widened to $3.4 billion in August as non-energy exports declined for the third consecutive month.

Petroleum, autos and machinery bolstered manufacturing sales

Total manufacturing sales were 4.2% higher in the first half of 2017 following a 2.9% increase in the second half of 2016. Higher sales of petroleum and coal products accounted for almost one quarter of the increase, as sales rose 10.9% on higher prices and volumes. Sales of machinery products rose 12.0% in the first half, advancing steadily from January to June. Sales in this industry have been influenced by economic conditions related to oil and gas extraction, and have trended higher since mid-2016 as support and investment activities related to resource extraction began to recover from lows in 2015 and 2016. Shipments of motor vehicles also contributed to the strength in manufacturing sales during the first half of 2017, advancing 4.1% on higher volumes. Sales of motor vehicle manufacturers were $6.1 billion in May, their highest monthly level since January 2016.

Higher sales in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta were mainly responsible for the growth in manufacturing shipments during the first half of 2017. Sales in Ontario rose 2.8% on higher shipments of motor vehicles, which accounted for almost 30% of the gain. Sales of food, petroleum and coal products, and machinery also supported the increase in Ontario. Sales in Quebec rose 4.4% in the first half on widespread gains, led by aerospace products and parts. Manufacturing sales in Alberta rose by 9.2% led by gains in machinery products, petroleum and coal, and chemical products.

Data table for Chart 10

Data table for Chart 10
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 10 Manufacturing, Petroleum and coal products, Machinery and Motor vehicles, calculated using index (January 2007=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Manufacturing	Petroleum and coal products	Machinery	Motor vehicles
	index (January 2007=100)
2007
January	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
February	99.8	107.5	101.6	99.5
March	102.1	112.0	102.4	106.4
April	102.3	115.1	102.2	98.7
May	100.4	114.6	102.7	93.6
June	98.9	112.1	102.7	84.4
July	98.7	114.7	100.2	93.0
August	98.0	113.0	100.1	85.3
September	97.6	114.1	101.2	95.2
October	97.2	115.9	99.3	94.5
November	98.2	127.6	98.9	96.3
December	94.9	132.6	96.8	65.7
2008
January	95.0	132.7	98.3	65.9
February	97.9	137.2	97.7	76.3
March	96.5	138.9	95.3	67.8
April	98.1	148.4	99.5	68.8
May	101.1	161.9	101.8	68.8
June	103.3	171.1	102.5	73.9
July	105.5	173.0	103.4	77.5
August	101.7	154.4	103.3	72.9
September	100.8	152.2	102.2	69.8
October	99.2	136.5	107.9	62.2
November	93.2	107.5	102.8	69.4
December	84.6	87.6	99.4	53.9
2009
January	80.3	93.9	92.1	30.5
February	82.3	94.2	95.8	39.4
March	79.6	95.0	89.0	45.2
April	80.3	86.7	86.6	52.6
May	76.2	95.9	82.3	41.7
June	78.3	106.7	80.5	40.9
July	82.1	104.0	81.4	60.5
August	80.9	107.5	81.2	55.0
September	82.1	104.6	79.4	62.6
October	81.9	107.2	79.0	63.2
November	83.2	111.0	80.0	60.5
December	84.3	114.4	83.0	66.1
2010
January	85.0	116.8	81.5	65.0
February	85.5	111.6	83.3	66.2
March	86.2	110.7	83.5	67.0
April	87.5	115.8	84.7	68.5
May	88.5	116.2	86.2	70.1
June	88.4	116.0	87.3	71.1
July	87.3	114.8	88.0	64.0
August	88.1	113.3	87.6	73.5
September	88.2	118.2	89.5	65.8
October	89.3	119.8	91.2	67.0
November	88.0	120.2	90.7	57.2
December	90.1	127.4	91.6	64.9
2011
January	93.3	129.4	98.7	79.1
February	91.5	132.0	93.9	69.4
March	92.6	134.1	92.6	73.3
April	92.1	136.1	98.9	62.0
May	91.0	131.6	105.6	60.9
June	90.5	124.2	102.0	62.3
July	93.5	132.2	102.3	65.1
August	94.7	135.9	102.4	66.6
September	96.5	148.6	107.7	69.6
October	96.9	142.3	104.7	73.7
November	97.6	146.4	123.2	74.9
December	99.5	140.1	115.7	82.7
2012
January	98.1	144.1	110.4	92.8
February	96.1	145.4	111.0	76.8
March	97.6	154.6	111.8	80.9
April	98.3	149.9	114.6	84.8
May	98.4	147.2	109.3	84.7
June	97.4	129.1	119.7	85.1
July	96.2	139.1	108.3	81.0
August	96.7	144.5	109.4	86.3
September	96.6	148.8	105.0	83.5
October	95.6	150.6	106.4	79.6
November	97.0	152.7	100.6	80.7
December	95.6	149.5	102.9	71.6
2013
January	95.8	147.9	105.4	74.7
February	98.0	148.3	107.8	80.0
March	97.3	141.9	107.3	80.0
April	96.5	132.1	108.0	84.4
May	96.5	126.8	112.0	80.5
June	96.0	134.9	108.1	83.5
July	96.0	141.4	111.7	78.9
August	97.7	148.1	111.6	81.4
September	97.7	148.5	108.7	85.6
October	99.0	144.7	109.5	83.9
November	99.6	143.6	112.0	87.1
December	98.0	148.9	112.2	81.5
2014
January	98.0	149.9	107.7	72.9
February	100.8	155.8	109.5	81.1
March	100.9	152.9	111.1	82.4
April	100.6	139.1	106.5	81.8
May	102.3	148.5	104.6	91.3
June	102.6	152.5	104.8	83.5
July	104.8	150.5	105.8	91.9
August	101.8	145.4	105.1	80.8
September	103.8	138.3	107.5	88.8
October	103.5	136.2	109.8	90.5
November	101.4	133.7	107.2	87.1
December	102.5	113.5	118.2	95.4
2015
January	98.8	98.8	111.8	86.8
February	97.8	106.7	108.6	77.4
March	101.1	110.3	108.7	88.8
April	98.4	100.8	107.4	85.1
May	99.3	111.0	106.0	86.5
June	101.0	112.4	104.6	91.4
July	103.1	111.2	104.6	98.0
August	102.5	103.8	99.1	105.7
September	100.8	98.4	103.8	94.4
October	99.4	92.3	101.1	96.6
November	100.4	88.7	102.0	102.0
December	101.1	84.8	104.1	104.8
2016
January	103.5	79.5	98.8	120.1
February	99.1	68.2	97.4	107.5
March	98.3	79.2	95.2	101.7
April	99.7	85.1	95.2	107.2
May	98.9	85.0	93.6	97.9
June	100.7	88.2	98.1	99.5
July	101.0	89.9	96.4	103.0
August	102.0	92.2	98.4	101.4
September	102.1	91.5	99.5	101.8
October	101.9	90.9	97.2	102.2
November	104.0	96.6	102.8	100.6
December	106.4	104.5	103.1	103.1
2017
January	106.1	111.6	103.9	107.3
February	105.9	105.9	107.0	101.7
March	107.0	103.5	110.4	106.3
April	107.7	106.8	113.4	103.3
May	109.2	103.4	116.2	110.9
June	107.1	96.1	118.3	108.0
July	104.4	96.7	116.7	86.5
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 304-0014.

More recently, manufacturing sales declined 2.6% in July on lower sales of motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts. Longer shutdowns than usual for motor vehicle manufacturers led to a 20% decline in that month.^{Note 2}   

Retail spending strengthened

Total retail sales were 4.6% higher in the first half of 2017, more than double the 2.1% rate of increase in the second half of 2016. Higher sales among motor vehicle and parts dealers (+6.5%) accounted for over one-third of the total increase in retail spending from January to June. Sales at gasoline stations, general merchandise stores, and building material and garden equipment dealers also contributed to the growth. Excluding sales at gas stations, retail spending rose 4.5% during the first half of the year, up from 1.3% in the second half of 2016. 

Higher sales in Ontario and Quebec accounted for nearly 50% of the national increase during the first half of the year. Retail sales in Alberta rose sharply during the first half of 2017, as spending continued to rebound from recent lows in early 2016. Sales in British Columbia also accelerated in the first half of the year, building on strong gains during 2015 and 2016.  

Home prices in Toronto moderated into mid-year

Home prices, measured year-over-year, continued to accelerate in early 2017. Based on estimates from the MLS Home Price Index, home prices rose 19.7% in the twelve months to April 2017, led by a 31.3% increase in the Greater Toronto Area.^{Note 3} More recently, the pace of price growth in the GTA slowed, decelerating to 14.3% year-over-year in August 2017. The Government of Ontario introduced the Fair Housing Plan in April 2017, a set of 16 measures to improve housing affordability for homebuyers and renters, which included a 15% Non-Resident Speculation Tax for the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, along with other affordability measures. 

Data table for Chart 11

Data table for Chart 11
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 11 Aggregate, Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Greater Toronto and Greater Montreal, calculated using index (January 2005=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Aggregate	Greater Vancouver	Calgary	Greater Toronto	Greater Montreal
	index (January 2005=100)
2005
January	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
February	100.9	100.6	101.0	100.9	101.2
March	101.9	101.2	102.4	101.9	102.4
April	102.8	101.7	103.5	102.7	103.1
May	103.9	103.2	105.0	103.5	103.6
June	104.8	104.7	106.1	104.0	103.9
July	105.4	106.2	107.0	104.1	104.1
August	106.1	107.5	108.1	104.4	104.5
September	107.0	109.3	109.4	104.7	105.3
October	107.6	110.0	110.8	105.1	106.0
November	108.1	110.8	112.1	105.2	106.4
December	108.6	111.7	113.9	105.3	106.4
2006
January	110.0	113.8	116.9	105.9	107.3
February	111.9	116.2	122.8	106.7	108.3
March	114.0	118.3	130.5	107.8	108.9
April	116.0	120.8	138.8	108.7	109.4
May	118.3	123.3	149.0	109.4	110.0
June	120.1	125.3	158.5	109.3	110.8
July	121.3	126.3	165.3	109.3	111.2
August	122.2	127.3	170.2	109.2	111.6
September	123.0	128.2	172.8	109.4	111.8
October	123.3	128.3	174.1	109.4	112.7
November	123.4	128.4	174.1	109.4	113.1
December	123.2	128.2	172.9	109.0	113.4
2007
January	124.2	130.0	174.2	109.5	113.9
February	125.9	131.4	177.3	110.9	114.7
March	127.8	132.8	182.3	112.1	115.4
April	129.7	134.8	186.7	113.3	116.1
May	131.6	136.7	191.0	114.5	116.9
June	133.1	138.5	193.3	115.4	117.7
July	134.1	139.7	194.7	116.0	118.8
August	134.8	141.0	195.1	116.4	119.3
September	135.3	142.1	194.6	117.0	119.6
October	135.6	142.8	193.1	117.7	120.0
November	135.7	143.5	191.0	118.0	120.5
December	135.6	144.0	188.5	118.0	120.8
2008
January	136.2	145.2	186.9	118.4	121.4
February	137.5	146.8	186.7	119.5	122.8
March	138.7	148.1	187.3	120.2	123.6
April	139.4	148.7	187.5	120.6	124.4
May	139.6	149.0	186.2	120.9	125.0
June	139.4	149.5	184.5	120.7	125.8
July	138.5	147.0	182.2	120.1	126.8
August	137.7	145.3	180.6	119.8	127.7
September	136.6	143.4	178.4	119.2	128.1
October	135.0	139.5	176.5	118.4	128.2
November	133.2	135.6	173.8	117.2	128.3
December	131.1	131.8	170.9	115.6	128.0
2009
January	129.6	131.0	167.1	113.8	128.2
February	128.8	130.0	164.4	113.1	128.2
March	128.7	129.1	163.2	113.7	128.1
April	129.4	130.8	162.1	114.8	128.3
May	130.6	132.6	162.6	116.4	128.6
June	131.8	134.5	163.9	118.2	129.1
July	133.2	136.8	165.2	119.9	129.8
August	134.7	139.1	166.7	121.7	130.4
September	136.2	141.6	167.9	123.4	131.1
October	137.5	142.8	169.2	125.1	131.9
November	138.6	144.7	170.2	126.6	132.6
December	139.4	146.3	171.0	127.4	133.1
2010
January	140.8	147.9	172.0	128.9	134.2
February	142.7	149.6	174.4	130.7	136.4
March	144.3	151.2	177.2	132.2	138.1
April	145.2	152.4	178.2	133.1	139.1
May	145.5	152.2	179.4	133.2	140.0
June	145.3	151.5	179.5	132.6	140.6
July	144.5	150.1	178.3	131.6	141.1
August	143.8	149.3	175.9	131.2	141.3
September	143.6	148.7	174.2	131.4	141.6
October	143.4	148.4	172.4	131.6	142.0
November	143.4	148.7	170.8	132.0	142.5
December	143.5	148.6	169.9	132.7	142.8
2011
January	144.3	150.1	169.1	133.8	143.8
February	145.9	151.6	170.2	135.9	145.5
March	147.5	154.4	171.1	137.4	146.7
April	148.9	157.7	171.9	138.8	147.3
May	150.0	159.3	172.7	140.1	147.5
June	150.5	160.5	173.8	140.6	147.3
July	150.9	161.1	173.8	141.3	147.6
August	151.1	161.2	173.3	142.0	147.7
September	151.1	160.8	172.5	142.3	147.9
October	151.3	160.2	171.6	143.1	148.4
November	151.1	159.7	170.9	143.3	147.8
December	150.8	159.0	169.5	143.9	146.1
2012
January	151.2	159.1	169.1	144.2	147.1
February	152.6	160.8	170.4	146.1	147.6
March	154.5	162.6	171.8	148.3	149.8
April	155.9	163.8	173.4	150.1	150.7
May	156.9	164.5	175.3	151.4	151.0
June	157.2	163.2	176.5	151.7	151.5
July	156.9	162.0	176.9	151.3	151.0
August	156.6	160.3	177.0	151.1	151.1
September	156.3	159.4	177.1	151.0	151.2
October	156.0	158.7	176.7	150.8	151.2
November	155.5	157.4	176.6	150.4	150.7
December	155.0	155.9	176.4	150.0	150.8
2013
January	155.0	155.2	177.2	149.9	150.9
February	156.0	155.8	178.9	150.8	151.9
March	157.5	156.5	180.7	152.9	153.2
April	159.0	157.7	183.1	154.7	153.8
May	160.2	157.7	185.1	156.0	156.2
June	160.6	158.6	186.3	156.7	155.1
July	160.8	158.7	187.3	156.8	154.7
August	161.0	158.6	188.1	157.1	154.7
September	161.1	158.7	189.0	157.4	154.7
October	161.6	158.6	190.9	157.9	154.7
November	162.0	159.3	191.9	158.9	154.6
December	161.8	159.2	192.5	159.2	153.9
2014
January	162.7	160.2	193.6	160.4	153.8
February	164.1	161.0	196.0	161.9	155.6
March	165.8	162.6	198.7	164.0	156.2
April	167.2	163.5	201.6	165.7	156.1
May	168.5	165.0	204.7	167.2	156.2
June	169.5	165.9	206.7	168.8	156.2
July	169.7	166.0	207.7	169.1	155.6
August	169.7	166.6	208.3	169.0	155.0
September	170.0	167.1	209.0	169.3	154.8
October	170.7	168.1	209.5	170.4	155.0
November	170.7	168.2	209.1	171.1	154.7
December	170.8	168.6	209.0	171.6	154.3
2015
January	171.2	169.4	209.5	172.2	154.5
February	172.7	171.6	208.8	174.4	155.3
March	174.4	174.6	208.4	176.9	156.8
April	176.2	177.7	206.9	179.8	157.7
May	177.8	180.8	206.8	182.1	157.7
June	179.1	183.2	207.5	184	158
July	180	185	207.4	185.1	158.3
August	180.5	187.1	207.3	185.9	157.4
September	181.5	190.6	207.3	187	157
October	182.1	193.9	206.4	187.6	157.1
November	183.1	198.2	205.4	188.3	157
December	183.5	200.6	204.1	188.9	157.2
2016
January	184.6	204.5	202.6	189.7	156.7
February	187.5	210.5	201.4	193.1	157.8
March	190.9	216.2	200	197.5	159.2
April	195	223.8	199.5	202.5	159.9
May	200.5	234.9	199.1	209.1	160.5
June	203.9	242	199.4	212.8	160.8
July	206	245.2	199.3	215.3	160.8
August	207.4	246	199.3	217.5	161.3
September	208.4	244.5	199.2	220.1	161.2
October	209.8	242.5	198.8	224.2	161.1
November	210.3	240	197.7	226	161.8
December	210.7	237	197.5	228.2	162.3
2017
January	214.2	236.8	197.2	232.5	162.5
February	218.4	239.7	197	239.6	163
March	226.4	244	197.5	254.1	164.7
April	233.4	249.8	198	265.8	166
May	236.2	256.5	199.6	268.6	166.7
June	236.1	261.1	200.6	266.7	167.5
July	232.5	266.5	201.4	254.3	168.7
August	230.7	269.2	200.9	248.5	168.8
Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association.

Home prices in the Greater Vancouver area increased in the first half, up 7.9% year-over-year in June 2017. Home prices in Greater Vancouver had decelerated in the second half of 2016, following the introduction of an additional property transfer tax rate of 15% for foreign nationals. More recently, the pace of price growth in Greater Vancouver edged higher in the summer months, reaching 9.4% year-over-year in August.

Following twenty-two months of consecutive year-over-year declines, home prices in Calgary edged higher on a year-over-year basis from May to August.

Housing starts increased on multi-family dwellings

Monthly housing starts averaged 215,000 units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) in the first half of 2017, up from 198,100 units in the second half of 2016. Higher multi-family starts supported the gains, as Quebec and Ontario posted increases. Total starts continued to rise in July and August. 

Investment in new housing construction, measured year-over-year, also strengthened during the first half of 2017. Capital spending on single units rose 11.7% year-over-year in June 2017, and has trended upward since early 2016. Outlays on double units increased, while spending on apartments moderated, down 0.2% year-over-year in June for the second consecutive decline. Residential building permits edged up to $5.1 billion in the mid-2017.

Headline inflation slowed

Consumer price inflation, measured year-over-year, slowed during the first half of 2017, decelerating from 2.1% in January to 1.0% in June. During this period, lower prices for food, clothing and footwear were offset by price movements in transportation and shelter.   

Measured on a year-over-year basis, food prices declined during the first five months of the year, while prices for clothing and footwear fell from March to July. The energy index accelerated early in 2017 as gasoline prices were 23.1% higher year-over-year in February. The growth in energy prices decelerated from February to June as gasoline prices moderated.

Shelter prices were 2.4% higher year-over-year to start 2017, and have moderated in recent months, slowing to 1.3% in July. Electricity prices declined on a year-over-year basis during the first half of the year, with prices more than 5% lower in May and June led by declines in Ontario. Increases in the homeowner’s replacement cost index, which reflects changes in new housing prices, averaged 4.1% during the first half of the year.     

Excluding food and energy, consumer price inflation slowed during the first five months of the year, from 2.2% in January to 1.4% in May. Inflation excluding food and energy remained at 1.4% in June, before edging up to 1.5% in July.

After accelerating to 2.8% to start the year, the durable goods price index slowed to 0.2% in April, before declining year-over-year from May to July. Price inflation among non-durables also slowed in late spring. Price increases for services, measured year-over-year, remained above 2% throughout the first half of 2017, averaging 2.3% during this period. 

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation were all below 2% during the first half of 2017. In June, the three year-over-year measures (CPI-trim, CPI-common, and CPI-median) ranged from 1.2% to 1.5%.^{Note 4} Two of these measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, edged lower during the first half of 2017.

Data table for Chart 12

Data table for Chart 12
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 12 Durable goods, Non-durable goods and Services, calculated using year-over-year change (percent) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Durable goods	Non-durable goods	Services
	year-over-year change (percent)
2007
January	-2.0	-0.4	3.0
February	-1.8	2.5	3.2
March	-1.7	3.5	3.2
April	-1.5	2.1	3.3
May	-1.1	2.4	3.2
June	-0.5	2.2	3.3
July	-0.5	0.9	3.7
August	-1.1	-0.1	3.8
September	-0.9	2.9	3.6
October	-2.0	3.2	3.5
November	-3.0	3.8	3.4
December	-3.2	3.4	3.5
2008
January	-4.2	3.9	3.3
February	-5.2	2.8	3.5
March	-5.2	1.7	3.3
April	-4.8	3.0	3.3
May	-6.1	4.8	3.7
June	-6.4	7.3	3.7
July	-6.4	8.9	3.6
August	-5.8	9.1	3.5
September	-6.3	9.2	3.4
October	-6.2	6.6	3.4
November	-3.0	2.9	3.3
December	-3.7	0.8	3.1
2009
January	-5.3	0.8	3.0
February	-3.6	1.6	2.8
March	-4.3	1.1	2.8
April	-4.3	-1.7	2.5
May	-2.6	-2.6	2.2
June	-2.0	-3.3	2.0
July	-1.9	-5.4	1.8
August	-2.3	-4.3	1.7
September	-3.1	-4.7	1.8
October	-1.7	-2.6	1.8
November	-2.8	1.6	1.5
December	-2.6	2.9	1.4
2010
January	0.3	3.4	1.8
February	0.0	2.1	2.0
March	0.0	2.5	1.5
April	0.6	3.5	1.6
May	0.1	2.2	1.6
June	-0.5	0.6	1.7
July	-0.9	2.9	2.4
August	-0.6	2.6	2.2
September	0.7	2.9	2.1
October	0.7	4.1	2.3
November	0.0	2.8	2.6
December	-0.1	4.1	2.5
2011
January	-0.5	3.9	2.6
February	-0.9	4.3	2.2
March	-0.1	6.0	2.9
April	-1.3	7.3	2.7
May	-1.0	7.6	2.8
June	-2.9	7.4	2.6
July	-2.0	6.6	2.1
August	-1.3	6.7	2.4
September	-0.9	6.5	2.7
October	-0.3	6.2	2.2
November	-0.7	5.7	2.2
December	-1.7	4.4	2.2
2012
January	-0.7	4.6	2.2
February	-1.0	4.9	2.3
March	-0.9	2.9	2.3
April	0.1	1.8	2.5
May	-0.3	0.7	2.2
June	0.5	0.7	2.2
July	-0.1	0.7	2.0
August	-0.2	1.6	1.8
September	-0.7	1.7	1.6
October	-0.7	1.6	1.6
November	-1.4	0.7	1.6
December	-0.8	0.4	1.6
2013
January	-1.0	-0.2	1.4
February	0.7	1.3	1.5
March	0.0	0.7	1.3
April	-0.8	0.0	0.9
May	-1.4	0.9	1.1
June	0.2	1.8	1.2
July	0.4	1.8	1.4
August	-0.4	0.7	1.5
September	0.0	0.8	1.5
October	0.2	-0.4	1.5
November	-0.8	1.0	1.5
December	0.0	1.8	1.5
2014
January	-0.1	1.9	1.8
February	-0.2	1.0	1.8
March	0.6	2.3	1.7
April	0.4	3.5	2.0
May	0.7	3.9	2.1
June	0.5	3.8	2.1
July	0.1	3.2	2.1
August	0.7	2.6	2.4
September	-0.5	2.7	2.4
October	-0.1	3.2	2.4
November	0.4	2.0	2.0
December	0.4	0.4	2.1
2015
January	0.1	-1.0	2.1
February	-0.7	-0.9	2.3
March	0.9	-1.0	2.3
April	1.5	-2.1	2.0
May	1.9	-1.5	1.9
June	2.1	-0.8	1.9
July	2.6	-0.4	1.9
August	1.8	-0.2	1.8
September	2.1	-1.4	1.9
October	1.8	-0.8	1.9
November	2.0	0.1	1.8
December	2.7	1.2	1.7
2016
January	3.4	2.5	1.7
February	3.4	0.4	1.6
March	2.4	0.1	1.8
April	3.1	1.2	1.8
May	3.2	0.1	1.9
June	3.8	-0.5	1.9
July	3.5	-1.2	2.1
August	3.6	-1.0	1.8
September	3.7	-0.3	1.8
October	3.0	0.4	1.8
November	2.2	-0.4	2.0
December	2.2	0.3	2.0
2017
January	2.8	1.8	2.3
February	2.6	1.7	2.2
March	1.2	1.0	2.2
April	0.2	1.8	2.5
May	-0.7	0.7	2.3
June	-1.1	0.0	2.4
July	-0.9	0.6	2.1
August	-0.9	1.2	2.2
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 326-0020.

Equities edged lower as energy stocks declined

After increasing during late 2016 and early 2017, the S&P/TSX composite edged lower towards mid-year, closing at 15,182 in June, down 0.7% from year-end 2016. Equities advanced from January to April, as industrials, information technology, and the consumer indices supported gains. Following notable increases in the second half of 2016, energy weighed on equities during the first half of 2017. The energy index declined in five of the first six months of the year, and in June was down 22% from year-end 2016. Financials also moderated in the first half, following notable strength in late 2016. After declines from March to May, the financial index at mid-year was little changed (+0.7%) from levels at year-end.  

The Canadian dollar also edged lower against the U.S dollar into the spring, trading at a recent low of 72.8 cents U.S. in early May. However, the dollar appreciated markedly in June and July, trading at 78.5 cents U.S. shortly after the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points on July 12th. The dollar continued to appreciate during late summer, trading at a recent high of 82.3 cents U.S. following the Bank of Canada’s decision on September 6th to raise the target for the overnight rate by an additional 25 basis points. Measured on a trade-weighted basis, the Canadian dollar also appreciated against major non-U.S. currencies in recent months, advancing against the euro and the U.K. pound sterling in July.

Data table for Chart 13

Data table for Chart 13
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 13 Exchange rate and CERI excluding US$ (RHS), calculated using CAN$/US$ and index (1992=100) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Exchange rate	CERI excluding US$ (RHS)
	CAN$/US$	index (1992=100)
2007
January	0.850	109.68
February	0.854	109.32
March	0.856	110.11
April	0.882	113.74
May	0.913	118.59
June	0.939	119.26
July	0.952	117.35
August	0.945	118.12
September	0.975	122.63
October	1.025	127.11
November	1.034	119.20
December	0.997	121.49
2008
January	0.989	117.37
February	1.001	118.06
March	0.998	109.43
April	0.986	112.99
May	1.001	114.64
June	0.984	111.23
July	0.987	110.94
August	0.948	111.27
September	0.945	114.01
October	0.844	104.92
November	0.821	103.79
December	0.810	101.03
2009
January	0.815	103.86
February	0.803	104.25
March	0.791	102.69
April	0.817	107.46
May	0.869	111.51
June	0.888	105.43
July	0.891	112.14
August	0.919	110.11
September	0.924	111.28
October	0.948	109.93
November	0.944	109.85
December	0.948	115.30
2010
January	0.959	114.11
February	0.946	116.02
March	0.978	121.50
April	0.995	122.82
May	0.962	123.32
June	0.963	120.15
July	0.959	119.34
August	0.960	117.02
September	0.968	116.27
October	0.982	114.95
November	0.987	118.47
December	0.992	119.83
2011
January	1.006	117.49
February	1.013	120.31
March	1.024	119.38
April	1.044	118.53
May	1.033	117.69
June	1.024	118.01
July	1.047	118.21
August	1.017	115.76
September	0.997	114.38
October	0.981	117.03
November	0.975	116.46
December	0.977	118.55
2012
January	0.987	118.19
February	1.003	120.43
March	1.006	119.44
April	1.007	120.30
May	0.990	119.87
June	0.973	119.74
July	0.986	122.48
August	1.008	123.16
September	1.022	121.44
October	1.013	119.96
November	1.003	121.26
December	1.011	121.58
2013
January	1.008	121.05
February	0.990	120.32
March	0.976	122.64
April	0.982	122.67
May	0.981	122.17
June	0.969	119.87
July	0.961	121.07
August	0.961	118.65
September	0.967	119.73
October	0.965	117.65
November	0.953	116.74
December	0.940	116.14
2014
January	0.914	111.70
February	0.905	110.95
March	0.900	111.53
April	0.910	111.96
May	0.918	113.35
June	0.923	114.85
July	0.931	114.33
August	0.915	115.76
September	0.908	115.98
October	0.892	116.38
November	0.883	117.53
December	0.867	118.41
2015
January	0.825	111.31
February	0.800	113.64
March	0.792	114.61
April	0.811	117.86
May	0.821	116.16
June	0.809	115.00
July	0.777	111.23
August	0.761	109.82
September	0.754	108.54
October	0.765	111.07
November	0.753	112.01
December	0.730	107.13
2016
January	0.703	107.06
February	0.725	109.67
March	0.756	110.76
April	0.780	112.85
May	0.773	111.48
June	0.775	112.20
July	0.766	111.47
August	0.770	111.41
September	0.763	111.05
October	0.755	111.26
November	0.744	116.08
December	0.750	117.16
2017
January	0.758	118.46
February	0.763	116.60
March	0.747	114.59
April	0.744	110.47
May	0.735	110.03
June	0.752	113.39
July	0.788	115.44
August	0.793	114.52
September	0.814	115.78
Notes: CERI: Canadian-dollar effective exchange rate index. Data on CAN$/US$ exchange rates for the period January 2007 to December 2016 are Bank of Canada legacy estimates based on the average noon spot rate; starting with the monthly estimate for January 2017, CAN$/US$ exchange rate data reflect recent changes to the Bank of Canada's estimation methodology. Estimates of the CERI excluding US$ are based on rates at month end. RHS=right hand scale. Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM tables 176-0064 and 176-0081; and Bank of Canada.

After little change from January to May, yields on benchmark Government of Canada short-term bonds rose in June and July. Yields on five-year bonds were at 1.58% in July, up from 1.17% at the start of the year, and from 0.65% in July 2016. Yields on ten-year bonds were at 1.96% in July, up 89 basis points from a year earlier. Chartered bank conventional five-year mortgage rates also rose in July, as the major chartered banks increased their prime lending rates by 25 basis points following the increase in the overnight rate. Mortgage lending rates also rose following the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increase in September, while five-year benchmark bond yields rose to 1.8%, the highest level since December 2013.

Lower energy prices offset higher prices for non-energy commodities

After gains in late 2016, overall commodity prices in mid-2017 were little changed from year-end levels, as lower energy prices were offset by higher prices for metals and minerals, agricultural and forestry products. Energy prices in June were down 8.4% from prices at year-end 2016. Excluding energy, commodity prices rose 9.8% during the first six months of the year. 

Overall commodity prices rose from July to September, supported by higher prices for energy and metals and minerals.  

Consumer credit increase highest since late 2009

The net worth of households was little changed in the second quarter (-0.1%), as lower housing prices and resale activity, coupled with weaker equity prices, weighed on the growth of household assets. Total household assets in the second quarter were valued at $12.6 trillion, while total financial liabilities amounted to $2.1 trillion.

Household credit market debt rose 1.9% in the second quarter following a 0.5% increase in the first. The accumulation of debt liabilities in the quarter reflected increases in mortgages, non-mortgage loans, and consumer credit. After remaining unchanged in the first quarter, consumer credit, which includes home-equity lines of credit, rose 2.4% in the second, the highest quarterly increase since late 2009. Mortgage debt rose 1.6% in the second quarter, following a 0.8% gain in the first.

Data table for Chart 14

Data table for Chart 14
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 14 Loans, Consumer credit, Non-mortgage loans and Mortgages, calculated using billions of dollars units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Loans	Consumer credit	Non-mortgage loans	Mortgages
	billions of dollars
2007
Quarter 1	22.1	6.1	2.4	13.5
Quarter 2	40.3	12.7	2.3	25.3
Quarter 3	38.7	11.5	0.6	26.5
Quarter 4	28.4	5.9	1.4	21.1
2008
Quarter 1	25.8	9.1	1.9	14.8
Quarter 2	37.7	11.4	1.8	24.5
Quarter 3	31.6	10.0	0.8	20.8
Quarter 4	18.1	4.3	0.6	13.2
2009
Quarter 1	8.2	5.9	0.1	2.3
Quarter 2	31.9	13.1	0.1	18.7
Quarter 3	29.6	9.8	0.5	19.3
Quarter 4	28.9	12.6	-1.0	17.3
2010
Quarter 1	11.2	-2.4	2.0	11.7
Quarter 2	30.6	3.6	0.0	27.0
Quarter 3	22.8	7.6	0.5	14.7
Quarter 4	21.1	7.2	-1.0	14.9
2011
Quarter 1	7.0	-0.8	1.6	6.1
Quarter 2	32.2	8.1	-0.1	24.2
Quarter 3	25.2	6.4	-1.1	19.9
Quarter 4	20.5	4.4	1.4	14.8
2012
Quarter 1	5.9	-6.8	2.7	10.0
Quarter 2	25.7	7.4	1.3	16.9
Quarter 3	25.6	8.4	-0.7	18.0
Quarter 4	15.6	3.8	-0.8	12.5
2013
Quarter 1	3.4	-0.3	2.0	1.7
Quarter 2	26.3	7.4	0.3	18.6
Quarter 3	25.2	6.3	1.5	17.5
Quarter 4	13.5	4.1	-0.2	9.6
2014
Quarter 1	6.6	-0.8	1.5	5.8
Quarter 2	27.0	8.6	0.1	18.2
Quarter 3	27.6	5.3	2.2	20.2
Quarter 4	17.5	3.7	1.2	12.6
2015
Quarter 1	7.6	-2.4	2.5	7.5
Quarter 2	37.3	8.3	5.9	23.1
Quarter 3	32.9	5.9	1.0	26.0
Quarter 4	22.5	2.4	1.0	19.1
2016
Quarter 1	14.2	0.7	3.7	9.9
Quarter 2	36.2	9.9	0.8	25.5
Quarter 3	24.7	2.4	-0.7	23.0
Quarter 4	24.0	6.7	1.3	16.0
2017
Quarter 1	11.0	-0.2	0.8	10.4
Quarter 2	38.4	14.4	2.7	21.2
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 378-0121.

The ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income rose to 167.8% in the second quarter, while the household debt service ratio, which includes obligations on principal and interest owing, was unchanged at 14.2%. The ratio of household debt to household assets edged up to 16.7% in the quarter, but has generally trended lower since the 2008-2009 recession.

References

Clarke, S. and L. Couture. 2017. Real growth of Canadian manufacturing since 2000.  Economic Insights, no. 74. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-626-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

MLS Home Price Index Methodology, version 2.1, July 6, 2016. The Canadian Real Estate Association.   

Richards, E. (2017a). Differences in Post-recession Performance for Auto Manufacturers and Service Industries. Economic Insights, no. 067. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-626-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

Richards, E. (2017b). Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Reposition in 2015. Economic Insights, no. 068. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-626-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

Statistics Canada. Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation. Last updated November 18, 2016. Available at: http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/document/2301_D63_T9_V1-eng.htm (accessed March 22, 2016).