Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada's economy?

Release date: April 20, 2017

April 20, 2017

Elizabeth Richards
Analytical Studies Branch

This presentation focuses on key changes in the Canadian economic data since oil prices began to decline in mid-2014. The presentation highlights recent trends related to economic growth and labour market conditions, the impact of lower oil prices in current dollar terms and in volume terms, and the impact of a weaker Canadian dollar on merchandise trade and manufacturing.

This presentation complements the release of Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Spring 2017. The graphs are based on seasonally adjusted data available in CANSIM on April 7th, 2017.

Outline

The objective of the presentation is to highlight key changes in the economic data since oil prices began to decline in mid-2014.

The presentation focuses on:

  1. Recent trends related to economic growth and labour market conditions
  2. Impact of lower oil prices in current dollar terms
  3. Impact of lower oil prices in volume terms
  4. Impact of the weaker Canadian dollar on merchandise trade and manufacturing.

Topic 1 – Recent trends related to economic growth and labour market conditions

To what extent has the value of the Canadian dollar been influenced by lower oil prices?

A line graph of Chart 1
Description for Chart 1
Crude oil prices and the value of the Canadian dollar
  West Texas Intermediate
(U.S. dollars per barrel)
Canadian dollar
(CAN$/US$)
2000 January 27.26 0.69
February 29.37 0.69
March 29.84 0.68
April 25.72 0.68
May 28.79 0.67
June 31.82 0.68
July 29.70 0.68
August 31.26 0.67
September 33.88 0.67
October 33.11 0.66
November 34.42 0.65
December 28.44 0.66
2001 January 29.59 0.67
February 29.61 0.66
March 27.25 0.64
April 27.49 0.64
May 28.63 0.65
June 27.60 0.66
July 26.43 0.65
August 27.37 0.65
September 26.20 0.64
October 22.17 0.64
November 19.64 0.63
December 19.39 0.63
2002 January 19.72 0.62
February 20.72 0.63
March 24.53 0.63
April 26.18 0.63
May 27.04 0.65
June 25.52 0.65
July 26.97 0.65
August 28.39 0.64
September 29.66 0.63
October 28.84 0.63
November 26.35 0.64
December 29.46 0.64
2003 January 32.95 0.65
February 35.83 0.66
March 33.51 0.68
April 28.17 0.69
May 28.11 0.72
June 30.66 0.74
July 30.76 0.72
August 31.57 0.72
September 28.31 0.73
October 30.34 0.76
November 31.11 0.76
December 32.13 0.76
2004 January 34.31 0.77
February 34.69 0.75
March 36.74 0.75
April 36.75 0.74
May 40.28 0.73
June 38.03 0.74
July 40.78 0.76
August 44.90 0.76
September 45.94 0.78
October 53.28 0.80
November 48.47 0.84
December 43.15 0.82
2005 January 46.84 0.82
February 48.15 0.81
March 54.19 0.82
April 52.98 0.81
May 49.83 0.80
June 56.35 0.81
July 59.00 0.82
August 64.99 0.83
September 65.59 0.85
October 62.26 0.85
November 58.32 0.85
December 59.41 0.86
2006 January 65.49 0.86
February 61.63 0.87
March 62.69 0.86
April 69.44 0.87
May 70.84 0.90
June 70.95 0.90
July 74.41 0.89
August 73.04 0.89
September 63.80 0.90
October 58.89 0.89
November 59.08 0.88
December 61.96 0.87
2007 January 54.51 0.85
February 59.28 0.85
March 60.44 0.86
April 63.98 0.88
May 63.46 0.91
June 67.49 0.94
July 74.12 0.95
August 72.36 0.94
September 79.92 0.98
October 85.80 1.03
November 94.77 1.03
December 91.69 1.00
2008 January 92.97 0.99
February 95.39 1.00
March 105.45 1.00
April 112.58 0.99
May 125.40 1.00
June 133.88 0.98
July 133.37 0.99
August 116.67 0.95
September 104.11 0.94
October 76.61 0.84
November 57.31 0.82
December 41.12 0.81
2009 January 41.71 0.82
February 39.09 0.80
March 47.94 0.79
April 49.65 0.82
May 59.03 0.87
June 69.64 0.89
July 64.15 0.89
August 71.05 0.92
September 69.41 0.92
October 75.72 0.95
November 77.99 0.94
December 74.47 0.95
2010 January 78.33 0.96
February 76.39 0.95
March 81.20 0.98
April 84.29 0.99
May 73.74 0.96
June 75.34 0.96
July 76.32 0.96
August 76.60 0.96
September 75.24 0.97
October 81.89 0.98
November 84.25 0.99
December 89.15 0.99
2011 January 89.17 1.01
February 88.58 1.01
March 102.86 1.02
April 109.53 1.04
May 100.90 1.03
June 96.26 1.02
July 97.30 1.05
August 86.33 1.02
September 85.52 1.00
October 86.32 0.98
November 97.16 0.97
December 98.56 0.98
2012 January 100.27 0.99
February 102.20 1.00
March 106.16 1.01
April 103.32 1.01
May 94.66 0.99
June 82.30 0.97
July 87.90 0.99
August 94.13 1.01
September 94.51 1.02
October 89.49 1.01
November 86.53 1.00
December 87.86 1.01
2013 January 94.76 1.01
February 95.31 0.99
March 92.94 0.98
April 92.02 0.98
May 94.51 0.98
June 95.77 0.97
July 104.67 0.96
August 106.57 0.96
September 106.29 0.97
October 100.54 0.96
November 93.86 0.95
December 97.63 0.94
2014 January 94.62 0.91
February 100.82 0.90
March 100.80 0.90
April 102.07 0.91
May 102.18 0.92
June 105.79 0.92
July 103.59 0.93
August 96.54 0.92
September 93.21 0.91
October 84.40 0.89
November 75.79 0.88
December 59.29 0.87
2015 January 47.22 0.83
February 50.58 0.80
March 47.82 0.79
April 54.45 0.81
May 59.27 0.82
June 59.82 0.81
July 50.90 0.78
August 42.87 0.76
September 45.48 0.75
October 46.22 0.76
November 42.44 0.75
December 37.19 0.73
2016 January 31.68 0.70
February 30.32 0.72
March 37.55 0.76
April 40.75 0.78
May 46.71 0.77
June 48.76 0.78
July 44.65 0.77
August 44.72 0.77
September 45.18 0.76
October 49.78 0.75
November 45.66 0.74
December 51.97 0.75
2017 January 52.5 0.76
February 53.47 0.76
March   0.75
Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 176-0064, U.S. Energy Information Administration.

To what extent have lower energy prices contributed to recent trends in total commodity prices?

A line graph of Chart 2
Description for Chart 2
Commodity price index
  Total, all commodities Total excluding energy Energy
index (January 2007 = 100)
2007 January 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 108.6 102.8 113.1
March 107.8 104.3 110.5
April 113.1 108.0 117.1
May 113.6 109.3 116.9
June 114.2 107.6 119.5
July 112.9 105.6 118.7
August 109.8 101.4 116.6
September 112.9 101.6 122.2
October 119.2 102.7 133.3
November 125.0 103.1 144.5
December 122.9 101.3 142.0
2008 January 127.6 105.0 148.3
February 136.4 117.6 154.2
March 145.4 119.3 169.2
April 153.7 118.7 185.6
May 165.2 119.3 207.6
June 175.6 119.6 228.4
July 171.7 119.8 220.4
August 150.2 116.4 180.9
September 138.3 110.4 163.7
October 110.2 95.7 124.2
November 94.9 90.3 101.1
December 79.3 84.4 79.1
2009 January 81.4 87.7 80.2
February 77.6 87.2 74.3
March 83.1 86.9 83.5
April 82.3 87.9 81.5
May 90.8 90.4 94.3
June 97.9 92.0 105.8
July 92.2 90.3 96.8
August 95.9 90.8 103.1
September 92.9 89.0 99.2
October 101.1 90.8 112.8
November 103.2 94.7 113.4
December 108.4 96.3 121.7
2010 January 114.3 98.2 131.5
February 111.8 98.7 126.1
March 113.2 102.3 125.6
April 115.6 106.1 126.9
May 108.3 103.0 116.0
June 109.3 99.1 121.0
July 109.6 100.9 120.0
August 109.3 104.8 116.4
September 107.3 107.3 111.1
October 113.6 109.8 120.2
November 117.3 112.3 125.0
December 123.8 117.3 132.8
2011 January 126.4 122.0 134.0
February 126.9 125.6 132.2
March 138.3 126.9 151.9
April 146.1 129.6 164.3
May 138.7 126.5 152.9
June 135.3 126.7 146.5
July 137.0 129.4 147.4
August 129.5 127.6 135.2
September 128.2 124.2 135.5
October 125.6 119.4 134.5
November 131.0 119.9 144.2
December 130.6 119.3 143.9
2012 January 128.5 121.7 137.9
February 128.4 126.1 134.1
March 130.4 127.1 137.0
April 130.4 126.3 137.5
May 125.8 123.8 131.1
June 113.8 122.0 111.2
July 119.9 122.8 121.3
August 126.1 122.3 132.9
September 128.9 123.6 136.9
October 124.5 123.6 129.0
November 118.8 123.1 119.1
December 119.1 125.0 118.4
2013 January 121.1 122.4 123.6
February 124.8 123.1 129.7
March 125.5 121.2 132.3
April 126.1 119.0 135.1
May 125.0 117.0 134.7
June 125.6 114.7 137.6
July 129.3 112.9 146.3
August 128.9 113.4 145.0
September 127.0 111.3 143.3
October 121.4 110.3 133.5
November 115.3 109.4 123.0
December 121.6 107.4 136.4
2014 January 123.1 109.0 138.0
February 128.9 109.4 148.3
March 128.8 113.9 144.4
April 130.3 114.0 147.0
May 130.3 114.5 146.7
June 132.2 114.4 150.2
July 129.1 116.9 142.8
August 124.6 114.9 136.2
September 122.5 111.9 134.8
October 115.1 110.7 122.8
November 108.4 110.8 111.5
December 92.0 110.0 86.2
2015 January 80.6 107.1 69.7
February 82.4 105.0 74.2
March 79.5 103.8 69.9
April 84.1 102.9 78.9
May 89.6 104.2 88.3
June 89.5 104.3 88.1
July 81.2 102.0 74.3
August 71.5 96.7 60.8
September 73.4 93.7 66.0
October 73.1 94.1 65.2
November 69.2 91.4 60.2
December 63.6 88.8 52.4
2016 January 58.7 88.4 44.8
February 57.8 90.5 42.3
March 65.1 93.2 52.3
April 68.2 93.8 57.0
May 73.3 94.6 65.4
June 75.9 94.4 70.3
July 72.6 93.3 65.0
August 72.0 92.9 64.3
September 71.8 90.2 65.8
October 75.1 89.3 72.8
November 71.8 90.1 66.0
December 78.0 91.3 76.9
2017 January 78.5 92.5 77.3
February 79.5 96.2 76.5
March 76.9 95.4 72.5
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 176-0075.

How does Canada's recent economic performance compare with other major economies?

A line graph of Chart 3
Description for Chart 3
Real Gross Domestic Product, expenditure-based, chained volumes
  Canada United States United Kingdom Germany France Japan
index (Q1 2000=100)
2000 Q1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Q2 101.2 101.9 100.7 101.0 100.8 100.2
Q3 102.2 102.0 101.0 100.9 101.6 100.2
Q4 102.4 102.6 101.2 100.9 102.4 101.2
2001 Q1 102.9 102.3 102.5 102.6 102.9 101.9
Q2 103.2 102.8 103.2 102.7 103.1 101.3
Q3 103.1 102.5 103.9 102.4 103.4 100.2
Q4 103.7 102.8 104.3 102.5 103.4 99.9
2002 Q1 105.3 103.7 104.7 102.2 103.8 100.0
Q2 105.9 104.3 105.5 102.5 104.2 100.8
Q3 106.8 104.8 106.3 102.9 104.6 101.2
Q4 107.4 104.9 107.2 102.7 104.6 101.6
2003 Q1 108.0 105.4 108.1 101.5 104.7 101.3
Q2 107.8 106.4 109.1 101.5 104.6 102.2
Q3 108.2 108.2 110.2 102.0 105.3 102.7
Q4 109.0 109.5 111.1 102.4 106.1 103.8
2004 Q1 109.8 110.1 111.7 102.4 107.1 104.7
Q2 111.1 110.9 112.3 102.7 107.7 104.6
Q3 112.4 111.9 112.5 102.5 108.1 105.1
Q4 113.2 112.9 113.1 102.6 108.8 104.7
2005 Q1 113.6 114.1 113.8 102.4 109.1 105.2
Q2 114.4 114.7 115.0 103.1 109.3 106.2
Q3 115.8 115.6 116.3 103.9 109.8 107.2
Q4 117.0 116.3 117.9 104.3 110.7 107.4
2006 Q1 117.9 117.7 118.2 105.3 111.6 107.4
Q2 117.9 118.0 118.5 107.0 112.5 107.9
Q3 118.3 118.2 118.7 108.1 112.5 107.7
Q4 118.7 119.1 119.1 109.5 113.3 108.9
2007 Q1 119.5 119.2 120.3 109.9 114.2 109.8
Q2 120.6 120.1 121.2 110.7 115.0 109.7
Q3 121.1 120.9 122.1 111.7 115.4 109.4
Q4 121.3 121.3 123.0 112.0 115.8 109.9
2008 Q1 121.4 120.5 123.2 113.0 116.2 110.4
Q2 121.8 121.1 122.4 112.7 115.6 109.6
Q3 122.8 120.5 120.4 112.2 115.3 108.2
Q4 121.4 117.9 117.6 110.1 113.7 105.9
2009 Q1 118.6 116.3 115.7 105.1 111.7 100.8
Q2 117.3 116.2 115.4 105.2 111.6 102.8
Q3 117.8 116.5 115.5 105.8 111.8 102.7
Q4 119.2 117.7 116.0 106.8 112.5 104.2
2010 Q1 120.7 118.2 116.6 107.6 113.1 105.4
Q2 121.3 119.3 117.8 109.8 113.8 106.4
Q3 122.1 120.1 118.5 110.7 114.3 108.4
Q4 123.5 120.9 118.6 111.6 115.0 107.7
2011 Q1 124.4 120.4 119.3 113.6 116.2 106.1
Q2 124.7 121.3 119.4 113.8 116.2 105.5
Q3 126.4 121.5 119.9 114.3 116.5 108.0
Q4 127.4 122.9 120.2 114.3 116.8 107.8
2012 Q1 127.4 123.7 120.7 114.7 116.7 109.0
Q2 127.9 124.3 120.6 114.8 116.5 108.6
Q3 128.1 124.4 122.0 115.1 116.8 108.1
Q4 128.3 124.5 121.7 114.5 116.8 108.2
2013 Q1 129.6 125.3 122.5 114.3 116.7 109.5
Q2 130.4 125.6 123.1 115.4 117.5 110.7
Q3 131.5 126.6 124.0 115.9 117.5 111.3
Q4 132.8 127.8 124.6 116.3 117.8 111.2
2014 Q1 132.9 127.4 125.7 117.0 117.8 112.4
Q2 134.3 128.7 126.9 116.9 118.0 110.4
Q3 134.9 130.2 127.9 117.2 118.4 110.1
Q4 135.7 131.0 129.0 118.1 118.6 110.8
2015 Q1 135.4 131.6 129.3 118.3 119.3 112.3
Q2 135.2 132.5 129.9 119.0 119.3 112.3
Q3 136.0 133.1 130.3 119.3 119.8 112.5
Q4 136.2 133.4 131.2 119.7 120.0 112.2
2016 Q1 137.1 133.7 131.3 120.5 120.8 112.7
Q2 136.7 134.2 132.1 121.1 120.6 113.3
Q3 138.0 135.3 132.9 121.3 120.9 113.7
Q4 138.9 136.0 133.8 121.8 121.4 114.0
Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts.

At what pace has the economy expanded since the recession?

A line graph and bar chart of Chart 4
Description for Chart 4
Real GDP, annual growth
Year Percent
2000 5.2
2001 1.8
2002 3.0
2003 1.8
2004 3.1
2005 3.2
2006 2.6
2007 2.1
2008 1.0
2009 -2.9
2010 3.1
2011 3.1
2012 1.7
2013 2.5
2014 2.6
2015 0.9
2016 1.4

2000-2007 average growth rate: 2.8%
2010-2014 average growth rate: 2.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 380-0064.

What contributed to the slowdown in economic growth?

A bar chart of Chart 5
Description for Chart 5
Percentage point contribution to real GDP growth, by expenditure component
Expenditure 2015 2016
Imports - services -0.039 -0.017
Imports - goods -0.075 0.306
Exports - services  0.096 0.210
Exports - goods 0.988 0.164
Investment in inventories -0.296 -0.305
General governments gross fixed capital formation 0.173 0.040
Business gross fixed capital formation - machinery and equipment -0.136 -0.207
Business gross fixed capital formation - non-residential structures -1.242 -0.695
Business gross fixed capital formation - residential structures 0.264 0.216
Household final consumption expenditure 1.056 1.296
Gross domestic product at market prices 0.942 1.433
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 380-0100.

What types of final expenditures contributed to the slowdown in 2015 and 2016?

A line graph of Chart 6
Description for Chart 6
Real GDP, selected aggregates
  Household final consumption expenditure General governments final consumption expenditure Non-residential structures, machinery and equipment Exports of goods Exports of services
index (Q1 2007 = 100)
2007 Q1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Q2 101.5 100.5 100.5 101.6 101.5
Q3 102.4 101.9 100.9 99.7 100.1
Q4 104.3 101.9 102.7 96.9 100.5
2008 Q1 105.1 102.8 106.4 95.5 99.2
Q2 105.2 105.1 106.6 96.3 99.8
Q3 105.3 105.0 106.6 95.2 101.2
Q4 104.0 106.5 101.3 89.9 102.7
2009 Q1 103.7 106.6 85.7 81.4 98.5
Q2 104.5 107.4 82.1 77.3 99.0
Q3 105.7 108.0 82.8 80.1 97.7
Q4 106.4 108.8 85.2 82.1 99.6
2010 Q1 107.6 109.8 89.8 84.0 96.6
Q2 108.5 109.7 94.1 87.3 96.2
Q3 109.4 110.1 97.6 87.1 97.6
Q4 110.4 110.8 102.5 89.5 98.5
2011 Q1 110.6 110.9 105.4 89.8 97.2
Q2 111.1 111.4 108.0 87.7 100.3
Q3 111.5 111.8 108.4 93.3 102.0
Q4 112.2 112.1 111.5 94.5 103.3
2012 Q1 112.9 112.2 114.2 94.1 103.9
Q2 113.0 111.9 117.8 93.9 105.1
Q3 113.7 112.7 118.1 93.2 103.7
Q4 114.3 112.6 120.6 93.1 104.2
2013 Q1 115.0 111.5 122.5 95.2 103.1
Q2 116.0 111.0 123.7 96.8 105.0
Q3 116.9 111.5 124.5 95.9 107.7
Q4 117.7 112.2 126.4 97.4 107.0
2014 Q1 118.2 112.2 126.2 96.5 109.8
Q2 119.4 112.6 128.1 102.7 111.6
Q3 120.1 112.5 130.3 104.2 111.7
Q4 120.9 112.3 128.4 104.0 114.5
2015 Q1 120.9 113.7 119.4 103.7 113.9
Q2 121.5 113.9 114.6 105.3 113.7
Q3 122.4 114.3 111.9 107.0 114.2
Q4 122.9 114.4 107.8 106.3 114.3
2016 Q1 123.6 115.3 105.4 108.6 117.4
Q2 124.2 116.9 104.5 103.5 117.3
Q3 125.0 116.4 105.2 105.9 119.6
Q4 125.9 117.0 100.3 106.2 120.2
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 380-0064.

Which industries contributed to slower economic growth in 2015 and 2016?

A line graph of Chart 7
Description for Chart 7
Real GDP, by selected industries
  Information and communication technology sector Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Construction Manufacturing Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services
index (January 2007 = 100)
2007 January 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 100.8 101.2 100.2 100.5 100.2 99.8
March 99.8 101.8 100.7 100.5 100.3 100.1
April 100.5 99.4 101.1 100.8 100.6 100.7
May 99.9 101.2 102.1 100.0 101.0 101.6
June 101.0 101.7 102.3 100.2 101.4 102.4
July 102.0 100.2 102.4 99.3 101.6 102.6
August 101.0 102.4 102.8 99.0 101.7 102.5
September 100.9 101.5 102.8 98.7 101.8 102.5
October 100.9 99.3 102.0 98.7 102.2 103.3
November 101.3 98.4 102.2 98.5 102.6 103.8
December 100.9 97.4 103.4 95.9 102.9 103.9
2008 January 102.4 98.7 104.8 95.6 103.3 104.0
February 102.1 97.4 105.1 95.9 103.2 104.4
March 102.4 99.0 104.8 94.3 103.3 104.6
April 102.3 98.6 103.7 95.6 103.5 105.0
May 103.0 96.7 105.1 96.1 103.7 105.3
June 102.9 98.3 104.7 95.5 103.9 105.7
July 102.4 101.0 104.7 95.9 104.1 105.6
August 102.9 100.2 104.5 94.2 104.4 106.6
September 104.0 98.4 105.1 94.2 104.8 106.9
October 102.8 99.2 105.8 92.8 104.1 106.3
November 102.1 97.5 104.3 91.2 103.6 105.4
December 101.8 94.2 102.1 87.2 103.7 104.8
2009 January 101.7 97.0 98.8 84.1 103.6 104.9
February 101.8 93.5 97.5 83.2 104.0 104.5
March 100.9 88.2 96.3 82.0 104.4 103.3
April 100.2 85.4 95.7 80.7 105.4 103.1
May 100.0 85.8 96.4 79.7 106.4 102.8
June 99.4 86.6 96.5 79.0 107.1 102.6
July 99.7 85.5 96.8 79.6 107.5 102.3
August 100.2 83.9 97.5 80.0 107.6 102.1
September 99.6 87.0 98.6 80.9 107.8 101.7
October 100.9 87.0 99.6 80.5 108.4 101.6
November 101.3 88.2 101.5 81.8 108.7 101.9
December 101.4 87.2 102.5 81.4 109.3 101.6
2010 January 102.1 90.0 104.3 82.3 109.4 101.8
February 102.5 92.8 104.8 83.4 109.5 101.8
March 102.9 94.0 105.2 84.7 109.7 102.2
April 102.7 93.6 105.6 84.6 110.2 102.4
May 102.9 98.3 105.4 85.0 109.7 102.1
June 103.8 97.7 105.9 86.1 109.5 102.3
July 105.1 97.5 106.1 86.1 109.4 103.0
August 105.0 97.1 106.8 86.0 109.9 102.9
September 105.1 95.5 107.1 85.4 110.3 103.2
October 106.1 98.9 107.5 85.3 110.8 103.8
November 106.8 100.1 107.8 84.8 111.3 104.4
December 107.9 102.4 108.0 86.2 111.7 105.0
2011 January 107.6 100.0 109.0 87.0 112.4 105.6
February 107.4 99.5 109.4 86.3 112.6 106.2
March 108.0 101.8 108.8 86.9 112.7 106.5
April 107.7 102.5 108.6 86.9 112.6 106.6
May 108.2 98.8 108.4 86.4 112.6 106.9
June 108.5 100.5 109.5 86.8 113.0 107.8
July 109.5 103.6 110.3 88.1 113.4 107.8
August 108.7 107.3 111.1 87.9 113.8 108.4
September 108.2 107.6 111.6 88.9 114.3 109.0
October 108.9 105.9 111.8 89.1 114.7 109.6
November 108.5 105.2 112.3 89.6 115.1 110.0
December 109.0 105.6 113.5 91.1 115.7 110.5
2012 January 108.1 106.2 114.7 90.8 115.8 110.3
February 108.6 102.9 115.6 89.2 116.3 110.5
March 108.5 102.6 117.3 89.6 116.6 110.2
April 109.2 103.0 118.7 90.3 117.1 110.4
May 109.3 102.2 118.5 89.9 116.9 110.5
June 109.0 100.4 119.2 89.9 117.0 110.5
July 109.2 99.4 119.4 89.9 117.3 111.3
August 108.9 97.3 119.7 89.5 117.3 111.4
September 108.6 97.8 120.4 88.4 117.8 111.6
October 107.9 99.4 121.4 87.4 117.9 111.3
November 108.6 101.6 121.9 88.3 118.1 111.0
December 107.5 102.0 122.5 87.2 118.3 111.7
2013 January 108.2 102.6 122.4 88.3 118.7 112.0
February 107.8 105.2 122.9 88.7 118.9 112.3
March 107.0 106.3 123.8 89.0 119.3 112.7
April 106.9 105.9 124.4 88.4 119.5 113.1
May 106.8 105.2 124.9 88.5 119.9 113.9
June 106.2 103.9 122.3 88.4 120.4 114.0
July 106.6 106.1 124.8 88.1 120.7 113.8
August 107.4 107.6 125.1 88.5 121.1 114.2
September 108.0 108.3 125.0 89.7 121.4 115.0
October 108.8 109.3 125.4 90.6 121.5 115.1
November 109.8 108.8 125.7 90.3 121.8 115.4
December 109.2 109.0 124.6 88.4 122.0 115.4
2014 January 109.5 109.9 125.1 89.0 122.1 114.8
February 109.6 111.5 125.7 90.7 122.4 115.1
March 109.5 113.5 125.3 90.0 122.7 115.6
April 109.9 116.7 125.3 90.3 123.0 116.2
May 109.2 116.9 127.0 91.8 123.8 116.3
June 110.1 117.4 127.9 92.5 124.0 117.3
July 111.1 114.3 128.7 92.8 124.4 118.2
August 112.0 109.9 127.9 91.6 124.8 118.8
September 112.3 113.6 128.0 92.3 125.1 118.2
October 112.4 115.4 128.7 92.5 125.3 118.7
November 112.4 116.1 128.5 91.7 125.5 119.0
December 113.0 114.4 127.5 93.5 125.7 118.7
2015 January 112.4 113.6 125.5 92.3 125.9 119.2
February 112.8 112.1 123.6 91.3 126.5 119.3
March 113.2 109.5 122.6 92.1 127.0 119.1
April 113.1 108.2 121.6 91.6 127.6 118.8
May 113.0 108.0 122.0 91.3 128.1 118.8
June 113.7 111.2 121.1 90.8 128.3 118.7
July 113.8 113.3 120.4 91.5 128.5 118.6
August 112.8 113.6 120.7 92.5 128.9 118.7
September 113.4 107.2 119.9 91.5 129.1 118.5
October 113.3 107.3 119.1 91.1 129.5 118.9
November 113.6 109.0 118.7 91.9 129.9 119.1
December 114.3 109.1 118.4 92.4 130.4 119.4
2016 January 114.5 109.9 118.7 92.9 130.6 119.3
February 115.2 108.9 118.5 92.2 130.8 119.2
March 115.4 107.2 117.9 91.9 131.2 119.7
April 115.3 104.0 118.1 92.0 131.7 119.7
May 116.3 98.3 116.9 90.6 131.8 119.8
June 116.2 101.9 116.5 92.0 132.1 119.8
July 116.8 106.9 116.4 92.3 132.3 119.8
August 117.4 109.4 115.7 92.4 132.4 119.7
September 117.6 112.2 116.5 92.9 132.7 120.4
October 118.4 111.9 115.6 91.3 133.3 121.1
November 118.7 114.3 117.0 93.0 133.1 121.2
December 119.4 113.7 117.9 93.4 133.5 121.7
2017 January 119.8 115.9 118.4 95.2 133.7 121.6
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 379-0031.

Which provinces experienced the sharpest declines in 2015?

A bar graph of Chart 8
Description for Chart 8
Annual growth of real GDP by province, 2014 and 2015
  2014 2015
percent
Newfoundland and Labrador -1.1 -1.8
Prince Edward Island 1.4 1.3
Nova Scotia 0.7 1
New Brunswick -0.1 2.1
Quebec 1.2 1.2
Ontario 2.6 2.6
Manitoba 1.4 2.1
Saskatchewan 2.3 -1.3
Alberta 4.9 -3.7
British Columbia 3.2 3.1
Canada 2.6 0.9
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 379-0030, 379-0031.

How did employment adjust as output slowed in 2015 and 2016?

A line graph of Chart 9
Description for Chart 9
Real GDP and employment
  Real gross domestic product Employment
year-over-year change (percent)
2007 January 1.4 2.5
February 1.7 2.4
March 1.8 2.3
April 1.9 2.1
May 2.3 1.7
June 2.8 2.0
July 2.6 2.3
August 2.8 2.3
September 2.7 2.4
October 2.6 2.6
November 2.5 2.5
December 1.4 2.2
2008 January 2.0 2.0
February 1.3 2.1
March 1.2 1.8
April 1.2 2.0
May 0.8 1.8
June 0.7 1.5
July 1.1 1.1
August 0.7 1.2
September 0.9 1.3
October 0.7 1.1
November -0.4 0.3
December -1.4 0.1
2009 January -2.2 -0.8
February -2.6 -1.3
March -3.5 -1.4
April -4.0 -1.7
May -4.1 -1.9
June -4.2 -1.9
July -4.4 -1.9
August -4.4 -1.9
September -3.7 -2.1
October -3.5 -2.2
November -1.9 -1.1
December -0.3 -1.0
2010 January 0.8 0.0
February 1.9 0.4
March 3.2 0.6
April 3.4 1.3
May 4.0 1.6
June 4.1 2.1
July 4.1 2.0
August 4.5 2.1
September 3.7 1.7
October 4.1 1.8
November 3.9 1.5
December 4.4 1.8
2011 January 4.0 1.9
February 3.3 1.8
March 3.1 1.8
April 3.3 1.6
May 2.6 1.4
June 2.8 1.2
July 3.4 1.4
August 3.6 1.5
September 3.9 1.7
October 3.4 1.4
November 3.1 1.2
December 2.9 1.2
2012 January 2.6 0.7
February 2.5 0.7
March 2.4 1.1
April 2.7 1.5
May 2.9 1.4
June 2.5 1.3
July 2.1 1.0
August 1.3 1.2
September 1.0 1.3
October 1.0 1.5
November 1.2 1.7
December 0.7 1.8
2013 January 1.3 2.0
February 2.0 2.2
March 2.2 1.5
April 2.1 1.1
May 2.4 1.5
June 1.9 1.4
July 2.2 1.5
August 2.8 1.4
September 3.2 1.2
October 3.8 1.2
November 3.5 1.0
December 3.0 0.7
2014 January 2.5 0.7
February 2.6 0.6
March 2.4 0.9
April 2.6 0.7
May 2.8 0.4
June 3.5 0.5
July 2.9 0.7
August 2.3 0.4
September 2.4 0.5
October 2.3 0.8
November 2.1 0.7
December 2.9 0.6
2015 January 2.5 0.7
February 1.9 0.8
March 1.7 0.7
April 1.1 0.7
May 0.5 1.1
June 0.6 1.0
July 0.9 0.9
August 1.2 1.1
September 0.2 0.9
October -0.1 0.8
November 0.3 0.7
December 0.2 0.9
2016 January 1.0 0.7
February 0.9 0.6
March 0.8 0.7
April 1.0 0.8
May 0.5 0.6
June 0.8 0.6
July 1.0 0.4
August 1.1 0.5
September 2.1 0.9
October 1.9 0.9
November 2.0 1.1
December 2.1 1.3
2017 January 2.3 1.5
February   1.6
March   1.5
Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM tables 282-0087 and 379-0031.

How did the composition of employment growth adjust based on recent events?

A line graph of Chart 10
Description for Chart 10
Type of employment
  Full-time employment Part-time employment
year-over-year change (thousands of persons)
2007 January 287.7 113
February 324.8 58
March 308.7 71.8
April 247.1 88.8
May 160.5 121.6
June 332.8 2.8
July 314.7 61.6
August 267.5 110.7
September 299.5 98.9
October 270.1 161.4
November 296.1 124.3
December 265 94.4
2008 January 279.7 51.6
February 311.5 44.1
March 249.1 43
April 289.7 37.1
May 204.1 104.5
June 83.2 161.4
July 86 107.2
August 139.9 64.3
September 114.5 106.1
October 124.7 68.9
November 23.2 32.5
December -50.2 71.5
2009 January -185.2 55.8
February -365.5 138.1
March -369 138.7
April -391.4 98.5
May -416 92.2
June -436.9 110.3
July -402.7 85.2
August -482.6 154.8
September -372.1 10.8
October -364.1 -18.3
November -221 40.8
December -166 1.5
2010 January -67.4 72.3
February 118.4 -43.7
March 89.3 16.1
April 138.3 86.7
May 230.7 35.2
June 303 42.6
July 118.4 218
August 206.9 135.4
September 134.8 144.3
October 159.5 147.3
November 113.6 143.9
December 180.3 127.5
2011 January 209.7 105.6
February 96.4 198.5
March 260.8 44.5
April 236.1 28.9
May 193.8 39.2
June 186.6 23.6
July 382.9 -144.1
August 353.2 -102.2
September 360.4 -65.8
October 232.8 6.5
November 269.2 -66.7
December 231.2 -30.2
2012 January 190.4 -68.5
February 229 -106.1
March 212.3 -18.2
April 250.8 -0.1
May 225.5 21.2
June 237.4 -14.8
July 213 -33.9
August 203.5 -2.9
September 188.4 38.8
October 288.2 -21.4
November 253.4 48
December 273.2 38.8
2013 January 289.5 62.1
February 327.2 50.4
March 195.4 57.6
April 183.2 9.7
May 275.1 -21.6
June 199.9 36.3
July 159.2 96.4
August 153.5 93.8
September 167.6 49.2
October 172.5 34.1
November 136.4 47.2
December 52.4 78.5
2014 January 64.7 64.7
February 72 42
March 105.6 55.2
April 52.2 67.2
May -70.5 137.4
June 27.5 58.6
July 22.3 100.8
August -6.2 73.4
September 24.1 68.3
October 28.1 110.4
November 67.1 48.3
December 145.5 -37.4
2015 January 108.3 21.9
February 136.4 -1.7
March 122.9 8.6
April 168.1 -35.3
May 238.4 -42.3
June 242.9 -66.8
July 262.1 -100.7
August 317.7 -123.5
September 200.4 -39.9
October 183.5 -43.5
November 202.6 -80.2
December 144.7 7.8
2016 January 167.6 -47.1
February 59.4 51.5
March 118.2 10.8
April 82.7 57.3
May 112.5 -9.2
June 27.2 82.2
July -43.1 108.5
August -35.2 119.6
September 54.6 98.5
October 23.6 141.4
November -25.5 222.6
December 73.5 155.6
2017 January 86.2 189.9
February 235.4 52.7
March 223.1 53.3
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087.

To what extent did gains in services offset employment declines in goods industries?

A line graph of Chart 11
Description for Chart 11
Employment in goods and services
  Goods-producing sector Services-producing sector
year-over-year change (thousands of persons)
2007 January 81.5 319.2
February 23.4 359.3
March 1.6 378.8
April -34.2 370.0
May -16.4 298.6
June -17.9 353.6
July 12.3 363.9
August 45.2 333.0
September 8.8 389.6
October -9.0 440.5
November -35.6 456.0
December -62.7 422.0
2008 January -47.5 378.8
February -10.9 366.5
March 4.7 287.4
April 26.2 300.6
May 22.9 285.7
June 28.7 215.9
July 5.3 187.8
August -7.8 212.0
September 16.9 203.6
October 5.3 188.2
November -26.1 81.8
December -28.6 49.9
2009 January -149.5 20.1
February -212.3 -15.1
March -221.5 -8.8
April -269.1 -23.8
May -315.5 -8.4
June -308.0 -18.6
July -301.2 -16.2
August -303.2 -24.6
September -280.4 -80.9
October -267.6 -114.7
November -225.1 44.9
December -216.8 52.3
2010 January -118.8 123.7
February -65.9 140.5
March -55.1 160.6
April -5.3 230.4
May 51.7 214.3
June 66.7 278.9
July 50.0 286.4
August 47.3 295.0
September 0.9 278.2
October 18.1 288.8
November 35.1 222.3
December 55.0 252.8
2011 January 78.2 237.2
February 86.1 208.9
March 104.8 200.5
April 91.1 173.9
May 76.1 156.9
June 67.4 142.9
July 73.1 165.7
August 72.9 178.0
September 84.3 210.2
October 63.7 175.6
November 70.7 131.9
December 59.9 141.0
2012 January 22.0 99.8
February 31.7 91.2
March 36.0 158.0
April 81.5 169.2
May 73.1 173.5
June 84.0 138.6
July 91.0 88.1
August 92.5 108.1
September 110.8 116.5
October 107.6 159.0
November 96.2 205.2
December 103.6 208.5
2013 January 92.5 259.0
February 75.6 302.0
March 58.6 194.4
April 28.3 164.5
May 32.4 221.2
June 21.7 214.3
July 14.0 241.6
August 16.2 231.2
September -0.9 217.7
October 18.2 188.5
November -10.6 194.1
December -50.1 181.0
2014 January 2.7 126.8
February -7.4 121.3
March 17.9 142.8
April -27.3 146.8
May -45.8 112.6
June -19.9 106.2
July -20.9 144.0
August -43.8 111.0
September -24.4 116.8
October -12.5 151.0
November -9.2 124.8
December 25.2 83.0
2015 January 0.9 129.2
February -32.4 167.2
March -57.2 188.9
April -29.3 162.0
May 6.8 189.3
June -10.3 186.3
July -26.7 188.2
August -10.3 204.5
September -25.5 186.0
October -58.4 198.4
November -6.7 129.0
December -18.8 171.2
2016 January -46.8 167.4
February 26.9 84.0
March 1.6 127.3
April -31.0 171.2
May -32.3 135.6
June -71.2 180.5
July -61.3 126.6
August -47.8 132.1
September -35.3 188.3
October 1.0 164.0
November -57.7 254.8
December -53.5 282.6
2017 January -22.1 298.2
February -77.2 365.3
March -24.2 300.6
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0088.

How did the labour market in Alberta adjust to lower activity in oil and gas industries?

A line graph of Chart 12
Description for Chart 12
Employment and unemployment rates, Alberta
  Employment rate Unemployment rate
percent
2007 January 71.5 3.6
February 71.7 3.7
March 71.5 3.6
April 71.6 3.7
May 71.4 3.8
June 71.7 3.7
July 71.8 3.3
August 71.8 3.4
September 71.8 3.5
October 71.6 3.5
November 71.6 3.7
December 72.2 3.3
2008 January 72.1 3.7
February 72.0 3.7
March 72.1 3.6
April 72.1 3.4
May 72.0 3.6
June 72.0 3.3
July 71.9 3.5
August 71.8 3.5
September 72.2 3.6
October 72.7 3.3
November 72.0 3.6
December 71.2 4.4
2009 January 71.2 4.9
February 70.5 5.4
March 70.1 5.9
April 70.0 6.1
May 69.5 7.0
June 69.3 6.8
July 69.1 7.1
August 68.8 7.3
September 69.1 6.8
October 68.4 7.2
November 68.9 7.3
December 69.2 6.6
2010 January 68.6 6.6
February 68.3 6.8
March 68.1 7.2
April 68.4 7.2
May 68.3 6.6
June 68.3 6.6
July 68.1 6.6
August 68.1 6.3
September 67.9 6.3
October 68.2 6.3
November 68.1 5.7
December 68.2 5.7
2011 January 68.9 5.9
February 69.3 5.6
March 69.3 5.4
April 68.9 5.7
May 68.6 5.6
June 69.5 5.4
July 69.8 5.6
August 70.1 5.5
September 70.1 5.4
October 70.1 5.1
November 70.1 5.1
December 70.4 4.8
2012 January 70.2 5.0
February 69.7 5.2
March 70.1 5.0
April 70.4 4.7
May 70.5 4.5
June 70.2 4.5
July 70.1 4.5
August 70.2 4.3
September 70.1 4.5
October 70.4 4.5
November 70.3 4.3
December 70.1 4.5
2013 January 70.1 4.5
February 69.8 4.7
March 69.6 4.7
April 69.6 4.4
May 69.9 4.5
June 69.7 4.8
July 69.7 4.6
August 70.3 4.7
September 69.8 4.3
October 69.5 4.5
November 69.6 4.8
December 69.4 4.8
2014 January 69.2 4.7
February 69.6 4.4
March 69.3 5.1
April 69.2 5.0
May 69.3 4.6
June 69.6 4.9
July 69.4 4.5
August 68.8 5.2
September 69.0 4.7
October 69.2 4.5
November 69.2 4.4
December 69.4 4.9
2015 January 69.5 4.6
February 69.0 5.3
March 68.9 5.7
April 69.2 5.6
May 68.9 5.8
June 68.8 5.8
July 68.6 6.1
August 68.5 6.1
September 68.6 6.7
October 68.1 6.7
November 67.8 7.0
December 67.5 7.0
2016 January 67.1 7.5
February 67.2 7.9
March 67.6 7.2
April 67.0 7.4
May 66.3 8.0
June 66.2 7.9
July 66.1 8.6
August 66.2 8.5
September 66.5 8.7
October 66.7 8.6
November 66.4 9.0
December 66.5 8.5
2017 January 66.5 8.8
February 66.5 8.3
March 67.0 8.4
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087.

Topic 2 – Impact of lower oil prices in current dollar terms

To what extent did Canada's industrial composition shift towards energy prior to the recent drop in oil prices?

A bar chart of Chart 13
Description for Chart 13
Contribution to nominal GDP for selected industries
  2002 2007 2013
percent
Construction 5.4 7.0 8.0
Manufacturing 17.1 12.8 10.3
Mining and oil and gas extraction 5.0 8.4 7.6
Sources: Author's calculations; Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 379-0029, 379-0024 and 379-0023.

How has Canada's trade balance been affected by the decline in oil prices?

A line and bar graph of Chart 14
Description for Chart 14
Merchandise trade balance, energy and non-energy commodities
  Total Energy Non-energy
millions of dollars
2007 January 4647.9 3661.8 986.1
February 4037.6 4812.4 -774.8
March 4441.1 4193.0 248.1
April 5570.9 4438.5 1132.4
May 5337.1 4136.4 1200.7
June 3770.9 3548.1 222.8
July 2559.8 3207.4 -647.6
August 3788.6 3916.3 -127.7
September 2612.9 3965.4 -1352.5
October 3092.5 4618.3 -1525.8
November 3773.7 4567.6 -793.9
December 1961.5 4089.5 -2128.0
2008 January 2484.8 4284.3 -1799.5
February 3784.1 5327.5 -1543.4
March 5727.2 6351.2 -624.0
April 4976.0 6000.4 -1024.4
May 5623.7 6998.3 -1374.6
June 5060.8 6496.8 -1436.0
July 5592.2 6548.1 -955.9
August 5679.9 6605.1 -925.2
September 3447.8 5803.9 -2356.1
October 2610.1 4741.2 -2131.1
November 386.6 4169.8 -3783.2
December -1703.6 2902.7 -4606.3
2009 January -1767.1 3093.6 -4860.7
February -44.7 3250.4 -3295.1
March 1079.3 3801.7 -2722.4
April -676.2 2969.5 -3645.7
May -1543.6 2700.0 -4243.6
June 97.3 3649.4 -3552.1
July -782.4 3160.4 -3942.8
August -1561.3 3269.5 -4830.8
September -821.4 3775.6 -4597.0
October 360.0 4086.1 -3726.1
November -334.5 4354.9 -4689.4
December -778.8 4014.9 -4793.7
2010 January 394.0 4346.7 -3952.7
February 61.2 4467.2 -4406.0
March -1255.8 3732.8 -4988.6
April 109.6 3842.6 -3733.0
May -860.2 3779.8 -4640.0
June -1396.2 3765.0 -5161.2
July -2071.0 3452.0 -5523.0
August -1771.5 2890.1 -4661.6
September -2333.8 3439.4 -5773.2
October -1182.5 3685.1 -4867.6
November -512.8 3775.6 -4288.4
December 1115.7 4789.2 -3673.5
2011 January 744.1 4842.6 -4098.5
February -48.5 4431.9 -4480.4
March -999.5 3881.3 -4880.8
April -239.7 4494.0 -4733.7
May -1086.0 4053.7 -5139.7
June -1114.5 4526.6 -5641.1
July 148.8 4678.2 -4529.4
August 208.8 4744.0 -4535.2
September 1097.8 5199.1 -4101.3
October -840.1 4877.8 -5717.9
November 575.3 5305.7 -4730.4
December 2121.1 6015.9 -3894.8
2012 January -34.7 5887.1 -5921.8
February -1.0 5450.7 -5451.7
March -1162.1 5013.9 -6176.0
April -740.9 5081.4 -5822.3
May -1386.6 4092.9 -5479.5
June -2337.8 4804.3 -7142.1
July -3042.0 3771.5 -6813.5
August -1076.3 4301.2 -5377.5
September -1051.1 4810.8 -5861.9
October -379.3 4837.1 -5216.4
November -1673.3 4729.1 -6402.4
December -404.0 4718.1 -5122.1
2013 January -882.6 4880.9 -5763.5
February -690.4 5275.8 -5966.2
March -183.1 5617.8 -5800.9
April -153.1 5437.0 -5590.1
May -820.4 5240.3 -6060.7
June -444.0 5383.7 -5827.7
July -1656.5 5890.5 -7547.0
August -797.6 6641.7 -7439.3
September -35.1 6693.6 -6728.7
October -371.7 6469.5 -6841.2
November -1267.6 5840.2 -7107.8
December -843.3 6154.7 -6998.0
2014 January -514.9 7299.1 -7814.0
February 784.7 8278.6 -7493.9
March 1594.1 8556.4 -6962.3
April 287.1 7318.5 -7031.4
May 492.1 7457.4 -6965.3
June 1231.0 7377.6 -6146.6
July 1159.0 6905.9 -5746.9
August 667.4 7077.2 -6409.8
September 125.9 6707.6 -6581.7
October -489.0 6759.0 -7248.0
November -457.6 6062.5 -6520.1
December -1029.9 5339.2 -6369.1
2015 January -1901.9 5020.9 -6922.8
February -1624.2 5230.9 -6855.1
March -3143.5 4499.6 -7643.1
April -2458.2 4609.8 -7068.0
May -2745.9 4562.1 -7308.0
June -558.0 4817.9 -5375.9
July -962.2 4455.3 -5417.5
August -2285.3 4085.9 -6371.2
September -2056.0 3998.1 -6054.1
October -2266.9 4272.7 -6539.6
November -2081.1 3585.4 -5666.5
December -918.4 3849.5 -4767.9
2016 January -1269.2 3485.4 -4754.6
February -2258.6 3015.1 -5273.7
March -3188.1 2821.3 -6009.4
April -3199.8 3191.2 -6391.0
May -3856.9 2781.7 -6638.6
June -4005.1 2817.9 -6823.0
July -2203.6 2895.0 -5098.6
August -1951.6 3621.0 -5572.6
September -4243.6 3903.5 -8147.1
October -1355.8 4380.8 -5736.6
November 1088.0 4983.8 -3895.8
December 374.9 6239.9 -5865.0
2017 January 421.4 5996.7 -5575.3
February -972.1 5739.2 -6711.3
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 228-0059.

To what extent have non-energy exports offset the energy-related declines?

A line graph of Chart 15
Description for Chart 15
Merchandise exports by commodity group
  Total Energy Non-energy
index (January 2007=100)
2007 January 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 98.3 109.9 96.0
March 102.1 110.4 100.4
April 102.6 111.0 100.9
May 100.6 110.0 98.7
June 97.3 104.4 95.9
July 95.9 98.3 95.4
August 96.1 106.0 94.2
September 93.7 109.3 90.6
October 92.5 111.1 88.9
November 95.1 115.9 90.9
December 91.0 117.4 85.8
2008 January 95.0 128.2 88.4
February 98.5 138.8 90.5
March 101.4 150.2 91.7
April 103.2 159.9 92.0
May 108.7 170.9 96.4
June 110.3 184.0 95.7
July 112.5 185.3 98.1
August 108.4 168.2 96.6
September 105.5 158.8 94.9
October 105.2 147.6 96.8
November 96.7 120.3 92.0
December 85.3 93.5 83.7
2009 January 77.2 88.9 74.8
February 81.7 89.9 80.1
March 81.0 91.3 78.9
April 76.6 83.6 75.2
May 70.3 79.0 68.5
June 74.1 94.4 70.0
July 77.6 95.2 74.1
August 74.0 94.7 69.9
September 75.9 96.2 71.9
October 78.4 103.5 73.4
November 79.6 108.5 73.9
December 81.1 113.0 74.8
2010 January 81.7 113.1 75.5
February 83.6 112.3 77.9
March 82.6 108.2 77.6
April 83.1 105.0 78.7
May 85.2 107.4 80.8
June 84.3 100.2 81.2
July 83.5 101.6 79.9
August 85.7 100.8 82.7
September 84.0 99.1 81.1
October 86.4 100.5 83.6
November 87.7 106.6 84.0
December 92.3 124.2 86.0
2011 January 94.8 129.6 87.9
February 90.1 119.3 84.3
March 91.8 125.1 85.2
April 93.0 130.5 85.5
May 92.6 128.7 85.4
June 91.7 126.4 84.8
July 95.1 126.1 89.0
August 97.8 127.6 91.9
September 100.7 138.8 93.2
October 98.7 138.1 90.9
November 101.4 147.7 92.2
December 105.6 149.3 96.9
2012 January 100.2 149.0 90.5
February 100.0 146.3 90.9
March 96.8 134.7 89.3
April 97.4 131.9 90.6
May 97.3 126.1 91.6
June 96.4 125.4 90.7
July 94.7 118.8 90.0
August 95.9 125.7 90.1
September 95.6 127.7 89.3
October 96.7 133.5 89.4
November 97.2 136.3 89.4
December 97.2 132.3 90.2
2013 January 97.5 136.7 89.7
February 99.7 139.5 91.9
March 101.1 142.4 92.9
April 102.4 140.4 95.0
May 100.1 138.1 92.6
June 99.8 138.0 92.3
July 97.6 141.7 88.9
August 102.7 160.1 91.4
September 103.7 160.2 92.5
October 101.8 152.8 91.7
November 101.4 141.7 93.4
December 102.3 152.0 92.5
2014 January 102.6 166.0 90.1
February 109.0 185.1 93.9
March 112.0 190.3 96.6
April 110.2 165.0 99.4
May 114.4 173.1 102.8
June 113.2 169.8 102.1
July 113.8 169.6 102.7
August 113.1 163.8 103.1
September 112.7 158.8 103.6
October 112.6 151.1 105.0
November 110.6 147.2 103.4
December 110.1 129.6 106.2
2015 January 107.9 115.4 106.4
February 107.8 119.6 105.5
March 109.2 109.7 109.1
April 108.5 114.1 107.4
May 108.2 114.4 107.0
June 113.9 116.7 113.4
July 114.9 112.1 115.4
August 112.4 103.8 114.1
September 111.2 98.2 113.8
October 108.7 97.8 110.8
November 109.5 90.1 113.4
December 113.5 90.1 118.1
2016 January 114.5 85.3 120.2
February 109.7 70.4 117.4
March 105.0 73.7 111.2
April 105.1 77.7 110.5
May 104.4 81.0 109.0
June 104.5 83.8 108.6
July 109.1 87.4 113.4
August 110.4 94.9 113.4
September 109.7 94.5 112.7
October 110.8 104.5 112.0
November 116.6 113.6 117.2
December 116.7 129.3 114.1
2017 January 117.3 130.6 114.7
February 114.5 127.2 112.0
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 228-0059.

How did lower exports of energy products impact Canada's current account position?

A bar graph of Chart 16
Description for Chart 16
Current account balances, by income source
  Primary income Secondary income Services Goods Total current account
millions of dollars
2000 Q1 -7482 38 -1044 13913 5426
Q2 -8953 260 -1203 15927 6030
Q3 -8639 107 -877 16952 7543
Q4 -9690 28 -1020 19286 8605
2001 Q1 -10549 138 -1314 22150 10425
Q2 -10159 106 -1133 18254 7068
Q3 -9958 162 -1161 14790 3833
Q4 -10284 219 -1285 14321 2971
2002 Q1 -7832 115 -592 15146 6836
Q2 -6983 160 -1342 13378 5213
Q3 -8468 33 -1314 13736 3987
Q4 -9181 223 -1026 13593 3608
2003 Q1 -10180 -52 -1602 15145 3311
Q2 -8605 -67 -1823 11154 659
Q3 -7502 -95 -1880 14444 4966
Q4 -6763 -125 -1973 14202 5341
2004 Q1 -6894 -96 -2007 15541 6543
Q2 -8396 -149 -1693 18964 8727
Q3 -7263 -34 -1208 16165 7660
Q4 -5076 -373 -938 13678 7291
2005 Q1 -7241 -453 -1697 12198 2808
Q2 -7051 -377 -1605 12530 3497
Q3 -6756 -338 -1461 16191 7637
Q4 -6010 -587 -1218 20044 12230
2006 Q1 -5366 -555 -1924 14360 6515
Q2 -4394 -228 -1638 10486 4225
Q3 -3942 -349 -1935 10907 4681
Q4 -3977 -761 -2010 11709 4961
2007 Q1 -5891 -1032 -2570 13126 3634
Q2 -5868 -419 -2822 14679 5570
Q3 -4285 -636 -3148 8961 893
Q4 -2908 -300 -3784 8828 1835
2008 Q1 -4275 -273 -3971 11996 3477
Q2 -5802 -706 -3902 15660 5251
Q3 -6726 -355 -3747 14720 3892
Q4 -8433 -264 -3584 1293 -10988
2009 Q1 -4602 -754 -4730 -732 -10819
Q2 -4034 -931 -4029 -2122 -11117
Q3 -5458 -723 -3784 -3165 -13130
Q4 -5466 -1076 -3829 -753 -11125
2010 Q1 -6761 -537 -5412 -801 -13511
Q2 -5757 -1106 -5713 -2147 -14723
Q3 -6927 -1617 -5477 -6176 -20197
Q4 -4730 -704 -5555 -580 -11569
2011 Q1 -6804 -975 -5545 -304 -13629
Q2 -4842 -860 -5852 -2440 -13995
Q3 -5215 -1008 -5398 1455 -10166
Q4 -7363 -783 -5001 1856 -11291
2012 Q1 -5726 -1061 -5510 -1198 -13495
Q2 -6403 -1260 -5489 -4465 -17618
Q3 -5567 -938 -5862 -5169 -17535
Q4 -7875 -940 -5761 -2456 -17032
2013 Q1 -6406 -1245 -6015 -1756 -15422
Q2 -7748 -1064 -5699 -1417 -15928
Q3 -5301 -934 -5686 -2489 -14411
Q4 -6370 -806 -5701 -2483 -15360
2014 Q1 -6847 -317 -6196 1864 -11497
Q2 -6002 -1116 -6118 2010 -11226
Q3 -6056 -894 -5780 1952 -10777
Q4 -5742 -956 -6032 -1977 -14707
2015 Q1 -4216 -975 -6327 -6670 -18188
Q2 -3947 -538 -6209 -5762 -16457
Q3 -4181 -854 -5974 -5304 -16313
Q4 -4145 -1239 -5945 -5266 -16595
2016 Q1 -4192 -1193 -5681 -6755 -17820
Q2 -2403 -256 -5444 -11297 -19400
Q3 -4747 -875 -5516 -8610 -19749
Q4 -5241 -821 -5456 793 -10726
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 376-0105.

Has the weaker exchange rate led to a lower US-Canada purchasing power parity (PPP)?

A line graph of Chart 17
Description for Chart 17
Purchasing power parity versus exchange rate
  U.S.–Canada PPP U.S.–Canada market exchange rate
US$ per CAN$
1970 Q1 1.054 0.932
Q2 1.060 0.942
Q3 1.061 0.977
Q4 1.069 0.981
1971 Q1 1.072 0.992
Q2 1.067 0.988
Q3 1.069 0.984
Q4 1.065 0.998
1972 Q1 1.068 0.997
Q2 1.062 1.012
Q3 1.051 1.017
Q4 1.047 1.011
1973 Q1 1.043 1.003
Q2 1.038 1.000
Q3 1.029 0.996
Q4 1.022 1.000
1974 Q1 1.017 1.020
Q2 1.008 1.036
Q3 0.999 1.020
Q4 0.997 1.014
1975 Q1 0.996 1.001
Q2 0.988 0.979
Q3 0.974 0.970
Q4 0.970 0.983
1976 Q1 0.962 1.005
Q2 0.948 1.021
Q3 0.954 1.023
Q4 0.945 1.008
1977 Q1 0.945 0.971
Q2 0.943 0.950
Q3 0.939 0.935
Q4 0.941 0.908
1978 Q1 0.938 0.898
Q2 0.939 0.887
Q3 0.935 0.874
Q4 0.931 0.849
1979 Q1 0.929 0.843
Q2 0.932 0.864
Q3 0.935 0.857
Q4 0.938 0.851
1980 Q1 0.940 0.859
Q2 0.938 0.855
Q3 0.935 0.863
Q4 0.932 0.845
1981 Q1 0.925 0.838
Q2 0.922 0.834
Q3 0.913 0.825
Q4 0.918 0.839
1982 Q1 0.898 0.827
Q2 0.889 0.803
Q3 0.886 0.800
Q4 0.880 0.812
1983 Q1 0.879 0.815
Q2 0.875 0.812
Q3 0.866 0.811
Q4 0.863 0.807
1984 Q1 0.866 0.797
Q2 0.869 0.774
Q3 0.865 0.761
Q4 0.862 0.758
1985 Q1 0.865 0.739
Q2 0.859 0.730
Q3 0.859 0.735
Q4 0.860 0.725
1986 Q1 0.852 0.712
Q2 0.849 0.722
Q3 0.844 0.722
Q4 0.838 0.722
1987 Q1 0.839 0.747
Q2 0.836 0.750
Q3 0.837 0.756
Q4 0.836 0.763
1988 Q1 0.834 0.789
Q2 0.836 0.813
Q3 0.835 0.820
Q4 0.832 0.829
1989 Q1 0.837 0.839
Q2 0.832 0.838
Q3 0.829 0.846
Q4 0.829 0.856
1990 Q1 0.831 0.846
Q2 0.832 0.854
Q3 0.837 0.867
Q4 0.843 0.861
1991 Q1 0.846 0.865
Q2 0.844 0.870
Q3 0.843 0.874
Q4 0.842 0.881
1992 Q1 0.833 0.849
Q2 0.826 0.837
Q3 0.823 0.832
Q4 0.823 0.792
1993 Q1 0.830 0.793
Q2 0.833 0.787
Q3 0.835 0.767
Q4 0.835 0.755
1994 Q1 0.838 0.746
Q2 0.839 0.723
Q3 0.839 0.729
Q4 0.840 0.731
1995 Q1 0.840 0.711
Q2 0.841 0.729
Q3 0.840 0.738
Q4 0.835 0.737
1996 Q1 0.830 0.730
Q2 0.824 0.733
Q3 0.822 0.730
Q4 0.824 0.741
1997 Q1 0.826 0.736
Q2 0.825 0.721
Q3 0.825 0.722
Q4 0.824 0.710
1998 Q1 0.821 0.699
Q2 0.822 0.691
Q3 0.824 0.660
Q4 0.825 0.648
1999 Q1 0.829 0.662
Q2 0.833 0.679
Q3 0.832 0.673
Q4 0.835 0.679
2000 Q1 0.835 0.688
Q2 0.827 0.676
Q3 0.827 0.675
Q4 0.827 0.655
2001 Q1 0.830 0.655
Q2 0.826 0.649
Q3 0.827 0.647
Q4 0.825 0.633
2002 Q1 0.825 0.627
Q2 0.823 0.643
Q3 0.821 0.640
Q4 0.819 0.637
2003 Q1 0.826 0.662
Q2 0.829 0.715
Q3 0.829 0.725
Q4 0.832 0.760
2004 Q1 0.838 0.759
Q2 0.837 0.736
Q3 0.843 0.765
Q4 0.849 0.819
2005 Q1 0.852 0.815
Q2 0.853 0.804
Q3 0.860 0.832
Q4 0.866 0.852
2006 Q1 0.866 0.866
Q2 0.863 0.891
Q3 0.861 0.892
Q4 0.858 0.878
2007 Q1 0.858 0.854
Q2 0.857 0.911
Q3 0.860 0.957
Q4 0.866 1.019
2008 Q1 0.867 0.996
Q2 0.865 0.990
Q3 0.863 0.960
Q4 0.850 0.825
2009 Q1 0.846 0.803
Q2 0.846 0.857
Q3 0.848 0.911
Q4 0.848 0.947
2010 Q1 0.849 0.961
Q2 0.847 0.973
Q3 0.846 0.962
Q4 0.847 0.987
2011 Q1 0.847 1.014
Q2 0.848 1.033
Q3 0.847 1.020
Q4 0.845 0.977
2012 Q1 0.849 0.999
Q2 0.847 0.990
Q3 0.849 1.005
Q4 0.851 1.009
2013 Q1 0.847 0.991
Q2 0.847 0.977
Q3 0.847 0.963
Q4 0.851 0.953
2014 Q1 0.851 0.906
Q2 0.850 0.917
Q3 0.849 0.918
Q4 0.849 0.881
2015 Q1 0.845 0.806
Q2 0.845 0.813
Q3 0.841 0.764
Q4 0.840 0.749
2016 Q1 0.835 0.727
Q2 0.841 0.776
Q3 0.841 0.766
Sources: Macdonald and Rispoli, A Historical Perspective on Recent Movements in Canada's Purchasing Power Parity; Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 176-0064.

Topic 3 – Impact of lower oil prices in volume terms

Have lower energy prices led to lower volumes of energy products exported?

A line graph of Chart 18
Description for Chart 18
Energy exports, in current and chained (2007) dollars
  Energy exports in current dollars Energy exports in chained (2007) dollars
millions of dollars
2007 January 6533.6 6912.0
February 7182.1 7031.4
March 7211.2 7011.8
April 7253.9 7138.6
May 7188.5 7311.5
June 6823.0 7073.3
July 6420.2 6849.8
August 6925.5 7365.8
September 7139.3 7468.2
October 7255.8 7192.8
November 7574.0 6972.9
December 7668.2 6847.3
2008 January 8377.7 7250.8
February 9070.9 7338.3
March 9810.6 7311.5
April 10446.8 7342.3
May 11166.3 7313.7
June 12022.6 7440.7
July 12104.0 7333.2
August 10989.0 7398.8
September 10373.2 7429.3
October 9645.1 7707.1
November 7862.3 7574.4
December 6109.5 7107.9
2009 January 5811.2 7070.1
February 5874.4 7185.3
March 5965.4 7189.6
April 5459.7 6850.7
May 5159.1 6355.8
June 6168.5 7081.7
July 6222.2 7477.5
August 6187.1 7177.1
September 6287.4 7104.4
October 6764.3 6969.7
November 7088.1 6955.9
December 7381.3 7115.6
2010 January 7391.3 6801.2
February 7337.2 6742.4
March 7071.7 6794.8
April 6862.3 7005.2
May 7017.6 7701.8
June 6549.5 7194.7
July 6635.2 7218.1
August 6588.5 7109.5
September 6471.7 7040.1
October 6565.0 7103.8
November 6964.9 7150.9
December 8114.3 7626.4
2011 January 8466.6 7903.4
February 7792.3 7602.4
March 8172.9 7713.5
April 8529.3 7469.4
May 8407.4 7389.1
June 8260.5 7419.6
July 8236.3 7599.6
August 8336.0 8118.4
September 9065.7 8304.4
October 9020.5 7973.9
November 9648.2 7959.9
December 9755.9 7904.8
2012 January 9738.3 8247.2
February 9558.7 8446.5
March 8800.0 8138.3
April 8619.5 8484.9
May 8238.0 8145.5
June 8195.9 8279.5
July 7762.3 8068.0
August 8214.7 8154.5
September 8341.6 8151.4
October 8719.3 7923.6
November 8904.2 8382.8
December 8644.0 8122.7
2013 January 8931.5 8278.7
February 9115.8 8433.4
March 9306.5 8535.9
April 9170.2 8441.9
May 9022.1 8329.2
June 9014.6 8404.3
July 9256.5 8184.6
August 10461.6 8774.9
September 10467.9 8840.7
October 9983.3 8856.0
November 9260.0 8566.0
December 9930.6 8672.9
2014 January 10847.2 8434.8
February 12096.5 8442.7
March 12431.5 8755.0
April 10777.6 8436.7
May 11307.8 9079.2
June 11096.5 8984.6
July 11083.5 9001.1
August 10700.0 9036.3
September 10376.8 8856.9
October 9870.8 8772.0
November 9614.5 8829.9
December 8464.8 8899.8
2015 January 7537.3 9308.8
February 7815.8 9311.7
March 7165.1 9096.8
April 7453.2 9450.5
May 7476.8 9156.9
June 7623.1 9135.9
July 7324.1 9029.3
August 6782.8 9540.1
September 6416.4 9673.5
October 6388.3 9480.1
November 5889.2 8770.3
December 5886.7 9145.5
2016 January 5572.6 9477.0
February 4600.8 9084.1
March 4812.5 8978.7
April 5077.5 8889.8
May 5289.8 8843.9
June 5473.8 8618.4
July 5711.8 8934.1
August 6199.3 9587.9
September 6177.3 9360.8
October 6830.8 9630.4
November 7423.1 10204.6
December 8450.7 10218.4
2017 January 8532.3 10062.7
February 8312.7 9931.9
Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 228-0059, 228-0061.

Which industries were affected by the decline in oil prices?

A line graph of Chart 19
Description for Chart 19
Real GDP, selected industries
Conventional oil and gas extraction Non-conventional oil extraction Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction Crude oil and other pipeline transportation
index (January 2007=100)
2007 January 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 100.2 108.1 98.8 97.7
March 100.3 112.5 95.5 96.6
April 103.4 102.3 80.3 96.8
May 103.7 100.0 88.1 96.1
June 105.5 94.4 95.1 93.2
July 99.5 101.6 100.9 96.6
August 100.8 110.6 94.9 95.3
September 101.0 106.4 94.1 94.8
October 99.4 105.1 90.8 94.0
November 98.3 101.8 93.4 93.6
December 97.9 93.2 91.6 91.7
2008 January 95.7 104.9 94.3 92.3
February 94.7 102.5 92.2 91.7
March 95.9 105.7 93.3 90.6
April 97.5 101.6 89.4 89.4
May 95.4 97.9 90.3 91.7
June 93.5 105.2 106.8 89.4
July 97.2 107.9 111.6 86.8
August 94.5 110.9 111.6 87.6
September 94.4 106.3 108.2 86.1
October 95.9 107.3 112.2 89.8
November 93.6 109.4 110.0 88.1
December 91.1 112.9 89.7 90.7
2009 January 92.1 115.1 91.7 88.3
February 91.4 121.6 86.4 85.2
March 88.5 118.2 64.7 84.3
April 85.9 111.9 69.9 83.2
May 82.4 124.7 68.1 80.7
June 85.8 127.2 67.2 84.3
July 86.3 128.8 62.4 83.4
August 81.7 122.8 68.7 82.8
September 82.1 127.7 72.7 86.4
October 81.3 130.1 70.2 87.3
November 82.9 130.4 80.3 87.8
December 81.2 120.8 92.0 85.7
2010 January 83.6 113.8 90.3 82.0
February 82.4 127.1 98.0 81.4
March 83.6 131.8 89.6 87.6
April 83.8 135.1 87.2 85.8
May 85.4 144.8 97.8 87.9
June 85.3 145.7 94.3 87.8
July 86.1 140.3 94.2 89.8
August 88.4 136.5 88.7 90.0
September 87.3 131.9 81.0 80.1
October 86.6 139.0 92.8 82.6
November 86.7 148.9 92.9 87.7
December 88.4 153.5 97.6 87.6
2011 January 88.4 146.5 89.1 97.8
February 86.3 148.5 88.9 102.6
March 87.6 146.8 104.3 99.2
April 88.1 151.6 101.8 95.2
May 86.9 135.6 102.8 94.5
June 85.4 145.7 103.2 96.5
July 87.7 151.0 105.1 100.9
August 89.5 154.0 123.7 106.1
September 89.9 155.4 123.9 106.2
October 89.1 151.4 124.1 106.2
November 87.9 151.7 123.7 104.0
December 88.0 153.1 120.6 105.7
2012 January 87.8 160.8 121.7 110.9
February 86.0 154.8 124.0 109.0
March 85.6 145.8 127.2 109.9
April 84.8 157.4 117.8 113.5
May 82.4 162.9 108.7 117.1
June 79.7 158.8 108.6 117.2
July 78.4 162.0 104.5 115.3
August 76.6 159.1 102.8 113.4
September 76.5 156.9 107.2 111.0
October 81.0 160.4 102.4 104.8
November 83.1 156.9 105.2 109.4
December 81.6 162.6 107.7 114.9
2013 January 82.1 161.1 112.2 115.9
February 83.0 163.0 118.5 116.2
March 83.7 168.9 114.1 119.0
April 83.6 167.0 115.0 117.2
May 85.1 162.5 109.9 114.8
June 85.5 161.9 104.7 115.7
July 86.9 163.9 110.7 114.7
August 87.0 170.8 115.7 118.1
September 87.2 171.8 116.7 119.4
October 85.9 173.4 119.3 124.5
November 85.7 178.9 111.1 123.9
December 86.8 180.1 108.2 117.6
2014 January 87.0 177.6 119.7 120.5
February 88.0 175.6 124.5 122.6
March 87.9 181.0 132.5 124.2
April 87.5 188.9 143.6 124.6
May 88.6 194.3 137.4 132.4
June 90.2 193.9 131.6 134.0
July 89.4 183.8 126.4 131.7
August 86.0 176.9 117.0 129.5
September 88.2 189.4 117.3 132.0
October 89.7 193.1 120.3 132.4
November 90.6 189.2 127.0 133.1
December 87.6 187.6 127.0 133.9
2015 January 88.9 199.4 101.8 132.1
February 88.2 205.4 84.9 132.4
March 86.4 203.0 71.9 131.2
April 85.9 192.8 82.2 140.5
May 83.9 195.1 89.4 136.9
June 84.3 206.0 90.9 138.2
July 84.0 218.7 86.9 145.0
August 84.5 216.0 87.6 148.2
September 84.8 189.4 75.8 146.9
October 83.3 197.9 74.1 142.9
November 84.5 210.5 71.4 146.5
December 84.6 208.5 69.8 149.8
2016 January 85.6 209.4 70.0 155.9
February 84.7 206.1 67.5 152.7
March 85.0 208.2 58.8 150.0
April 86.0 191.7 55.1 144.8
May 87.6 153.0 52.9 140.1
June 87.0 173.3 53.0 139.6
July 87.9 205.9 52.4 146.1
August 89.3 210.5 55.5 151.2
September 90.6 223.1 57.9 154.0
October 87.7 223.8 60.4 153.6
November 88.1 232.4 63.9 157.0
December 85.9 221.1 76.3 153.2
2017 January 87.7 225.1 78.3 155.7
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 379-0031

What type of investments contributed to lower output growth?

A line graph of Chart 20
Description for Chart 20
Business gross fixed capital formation
  Total business gross fixed capital formation Residential structures Non-residential structures Machinery and equipment Intellectual property products
index (Q1 2007=100)
2007 Q1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Q2 100.6 100.6 99.8 101.3 100.7
Q3 100.8 100.3 100.2 101.6 102.1
Q4 102.1 100.7 100.5 105.0 104.5
2008 Q1 104.0 99.5 107.2 105.4 107.6
Q2 103.3 97.2 108.7 104.1 107.6
Q3 102.2 95.0 109.3 103.3 105.8
Q4 96.8 89.5 106.6 95.3 100.1
2009 Q1 85.1 83.7 91.8 79.1 88.0
Q2 83.9 86.7 85.7 77.9 85.4
Q3 85.5 90.2 84.9 80.3 85.6
Q4 89.0 95.8 85.7 84.3 87.7
2010 Q1 92.9 98.5 93.9 84.9 91.8
Q2 95.1 97.3 98.6 88.8 95.6
Q3 96.5 95.5 104.7 89.2 97.6
Q4 98.8 94.8 111.2 92.1 97.7
2011 Q1 100.7 96.8 115.5 93.3 95.6
Q2 102.6 96.6 114.6 100.2 101.0
Q3 104.1 99.1 119.5 95.0 104.0
Q4 106.1 100.1 124.0 96.5 104.1
2012 Q1 109.1 104.4 127.3 98.3 104.7
Q2 110.3 103.9 133.1 99.1 99.8
Q3 110.2 103.1 133.7 99.0 100.7
Q4 111.4 103.0 138.1 99.1 99.7
2013 Q1 112.2 102.3 141.0 99.7 100.3
Q2 113.1 104.0 143.0 99.8 97.7
Q3 113.4 103.4 146.1 97.8 98.9
Q4 114.4 103.3 147.4 100.4 99.1
2014 Q1 113.3 102.6 149.3 97.4 93.0
Q2 115.0 105.3 150.8 99.9 90.4
Q3 116.9 107.8 151.6 103.9 88.4
Q4 116.4 108.3 150.3 101.2 91.5
2015 Q1 111.3 109.3 135.3 99.8 84.1
Q2 108.8 109.7 128.9 97.0 82.9
Q3 107.5 110.3 123.5 97.5 81.9
Q4 105.6 110.8 118.2 95.0 81.7
2016 Q1 105.2 113.6 114.3 94.4 80.9
Q2 104.6 113.5 112.2 94.7 80.2
Q3 104.1 112.2 116.2 91.6 76.6
Q4 101.9 113.5 109.3 89.2 75.2
Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 380-0068.

Have trends in real gross national income differed from those in real GDP given recent events?

A line graph of Chart 21
Description for Chart 21
Cumulative growth of real gross domestic product versus real gross national income
  Real gross domestic product Real gross national income
index (2001 Q3=100)
1981 Q1 59.06 59.60
1981 Q2 59.77 60.22
1981 Q3 59.18 59.23
1981 Q4 58.95 59.35
1982 Q1 58.25 58.23
1982 Q2 57.54 57.23
1982 Q3 57.08 56.73
1982 Q4 56.49 56.61
1983 Q1 57.43 57.86
1983 Q2 58.60 58.73
1983 Q3 59.30 59.48
1983 Q4 60.00 60.22
1984 Q1 61.05 61.10
1984 Q2 62.22 62.22
1984 Q3 62.46 62.47
1984 Q4 63.51 63.22
1985 Q1 64.44 64.09
1985 Q2 64.68 64.71
1985 Q3 65.50 65.21
1985 Q4 66.43 66.08
1986 Q1 66.43 65.21
1986 Q2 66.90 65.96
1986 Q3 66.90 66.33
1986 Q4 66.43 65.09
1987 Q1 67.95 67.46
1987 Q2 68.89 68.58
1987 Q3 69.94 69.70
1987 Q4 70.88 70.57
1988 Q1 71.81 71.82
1988 Q2 72.51 72.07
1988 Q3 72.51 72.94
1988 Q4 72.98 72.82
1989 Q1 73.80 73.69
1989 Q2 74.15 74.44
1989 Q3 74.39 74.81
1989 Q4 74.27 74.44
1990 Q1 74.97 74.81
1990 Q2 74.62 74.06
1990 Q3 74.15 73.94
1990 Q4 73.45 73.07
1991 Q1 72.40 72.07
1991 Q2 72.75 72.32
1991 Q3 72.75 72.19
1991 Q4 72.98 72.57
1992 Q1 72.98 72.32
1992 Q2 73.10 72.32
1992 Q3 73.45 72.82
1992 Q4 73.92 72.44
1993 Q1 74.39 73.69
1993 Q2 74.97 74.19
1993 Q3 75.79 74.44
1993 Q4 76.02 74.56
1994 Q1 77.19 75.94
1994 Q2 78.36 76.31
1994 Q3 79.30 78.05
1994 Q4 79.88 78.68
1995 Q1 80.58 79.55
1995 Q2 80.70 79.80
1995 Q3 80.70 80.67
1995 Q4 81.05 80.92
1996 Q1 81.17 80.92
1996 Q2 81.75 81.55
1996 Q3 82.46 82.29
1996 Q4 83.04 83.54
1997 Q1 84.21 84.29
1997 Q2 85.15 85.04
1997 Q3 86.08 85.79
1997 Q4 86.90 86.78
1998 Q1 88.19 87.16
1998 Q2 88.19 87.03
1998 Q3 89.01 86.66
1998 Q4 90.29 87.91
1999 Q1 91.81 89.90
1999 Q2 92.63 91.52
1999 Q3 94.04 93.27
1999 Q4 95.44 94.14
2000 Q1 96.96 97.38
2000 Q2 98.13 98.75
2000 Q3 99.06 100.50
2000 Q4 99.30 101.25
2001 Q1 99.77 102.12
2001 Q2 100.00 101.37
2001 Q3 100.00 100.00
2001 Q4 100.58 98.88
2002 Q1 102.11 101.12
2002 Q2 102.69 102.87
2002 Q3 103.51 103.49
2002 Q4 104.09 103.99
2003 Q1 104.68 106.61
2003 Q2 104.56 105.24
2003 Q3 104.91 106.73
2003 Q4 105.61 107.86
2004 Q1 106.43 109.73
2004 Q2 107.72 111.22
2004 Q3 109.01 113.09
2004 Q4 109.71 113.59
2005 Q1 110.18 114.34
2005 Q2 110.88 115.46
2005 Q3 112.28 118.20
2005 Q4 113.33 119.83
2006 Q1 114.27 120.20
2006 Q2 114.39 120.95
2006 Q3 114.62 121.32
2006 Q4 115.09 121.20
2007 Q1 115.79 122.32
2007 Q2 116.96 124.31
2007 Q3 117.43 125.19
2007 Q4 117.66 126.93
2008 Q1 117.66 128.68
2008 Q2 118.13 130.05
2008 Q3 119.06 129.68
2008 Q4 117.66 122.69
2009 Q1 114.97 119.08
2009 Q2 113.68 118.08
2009 Q3 114.27 119.58
2009 Q4 115.56 122.32
2010 Q1 116.96 123.94
2010 Q2 117.54 124.31
2010 Q3 118.36 124.56
2010 Q4 119.77 127.56
2011 Q1 120.58 128.93
2011 Q2 120.82 129.80
2011 Q3 122.57 131.05
2011 Q4 123.51 131.67
2012 Q1 123.51 132.17
2012 Q2 123.98 131.92
2012 Q3 124.21 132.04
2012 Q4 124.33 132.54
2013 Q1 125.61 135.16
2013 Q2 126.43 135.16
2013 Q3 127.49 136.03
2013 Q4 128.77 136.78
2014 Q1 128.89 137.66
2014 Q2 130.18 138.53
2014 Q3 130.76 138.90
2014 Q4 131.58 138.90
2015 Q1 131.23 137.03
2015 Q2 131.11 136.41
2015 Q3 131.93 136.66
2015 Q4 132.05 136.91
2016 Q1 132.98 136.41
2016 Q2 132.51 137.03
2016 Q3 133.80 138.28
2016 Q4 134.62 140.02
Sources: Macdonald and Rispoli, How big was the Effect of Falling Commodity Prices on Canadian Real Incomes between mid-2014 and mid-2016?; Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 380-0065.

Topic 4 – Impact of the weaker Canadian dollar on merchandise trade and manufacturing

Which commodity groups led non-energy trends in 2015 and 2016?

A line graph of Chart 22
Description for Chart 22
Exports, trend-cycle estimates, selected commodities
  Non-energy: trend-cycle Motor vehicles and parts: trend-cycle Forestry products and building and packaging materials: trend-cycle Consumer goods: trend-cycle Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts: trend-cycle Metal ores and non-metallic minerals: trend-cycle
index (January 2013=100)
2007 January 109.50 141.72 138.36 105.48 109.63 68.99
February 110.26 142.71 138.00 105.81 109.51 70.17
March 110.65 141.84 137.44 105.20 110.86 72.66
April 110.42 139.14 136.16 104.46 111.67 73.96
May 109.33 135.25 133.98 103.25 111.28 74.20
June 107.78 131.07 130.87 101.75 110.62 74.86
July 106.05 128.41 127.71 100.38 108.55 73.69
August 104.04 124.89 124.40 98.94 106.32 71.54
September 102.00 121.79 120.47 97.23 104.16 70.98
October 100.40 119.12 117.24 95.38 102.81 69.85
November 99.38 116.35 114.63 93.96 101.37 69.99
December 99.00 113.15 112.95 92.97 102.82 71.38
2008 January 99.39 110.38 111.85 92.86 103.70 74.87
February 100.46 108.91 111.44 93.59 104.74 79.49
March 102.22 107.55 111.77 95.27 106.91 87.42
April 103.81 106.79 112.37 97.15 106.13 95.30
May 105.55 105.79 113.38 99.66 104.80 105.06
June 107.14 105.59 114.64 101.77 103.12 114.61
July 107.97 105.39 115.91 103.60 102.21 120.43
August 107.46 102.97 116.60 105.05 101.34 123.67
September 105.89 99.56 116.46 105.62 102.75 122.35
October 103.27 94.93 114.86 106.14 106.27 117.23
November 99.55 88.96 111.75 106.02 109.81 107.70
December 95.31 82.11 107.47 105.69 113.51 97.11
2009 January 90.93 74.97 102.41 104.80 114.67 85.47
February 87.74 70.23 97.64 104.20 115.63 76.23
March 84.89 66.94 93.17 102.48 114.37 70.60
April 82.48 65.66 89.57 100.05 111.25 65.71
May 80.81 65.57 86.97 97.35 107.61 64.54
June 80.02 67.98 85.32 94.45 105.13 65.07
July 79.77 72.46 84.34 92.25 102.92 66.37
August 79.65 76.53 83.78 90.49 98.67 67.41
September 80.31 80.91 83.92 89.97 96.54 69.65
October 81.32 84.74 84.47 90.54 92.85 73.34
November 82.47 87.63 85.42 91.56 90.28 77.15
December 83.46 89.26 86.80 92.34 87.65 81.04
2010 January 84.64 90.62 88.58 93.46 86.41 84.40
February 85.92 92.46 90.40 94.24 87.61 87.42
March 87.03 94.50 92.14 94.82 88.39 88.64
April 88.08 97.25 93.44 95.35 90.98 88.43
May 88.98 99.59 94.29 95.63 92.47 88.02
June 89.77 101.09 94.41 95.93 93.91 88.48
July 90.35 100.93 94.37 95.86 94.02 89.67
August 91.20 100.11 94.55 95.66 94.25 92.09
September 92.10 98.75 94.51 95.46 93.88 95.92
October 93.07 97.22 94.98 95.45 92.84 100.83
November 94.02 96.37 95.61 95.37 92.66 104.79
December 94.90 96.82 96.20 95.57 91.73 107.80
2011 January 95.28 97.68 96.59 95.44 90.04 109.61
February 95.21 97.84 96.77 94.67 87.89 110.10
March 95.25 97.80 96.72 94.22 87.83 110.32
April 95.47 96.74 96.75 94.12 88.33 110.37
May 96.16 96.24 96.88 94.45 90.11 111.08
June 97.10 95.10 96.81 95.67 93.34 112.73
July 98.87 94.95 97.45 97.95 97.21 115.75
August 100.71 96.90 97.96 100.47 99.46 117.47
September 102.09 99.78 98.24 102.16 98.74 118.79
October 103.01 102.97 98.49 102.90 97.76 118.87
November 103.37 106.73 98.30 102.67 95.15 117.30
December 103.31 109.95 97.80 101.80 93.49 114.92
2012 January 102.62 112.09 97.32 100.11 92.46 111.35
February 101.92 113.31 96.94 98.62 93.54 109.24
March 101.36 113.74 96.78 98.00 96.42 107.68
April 101.17 114.38 97.26 98.14 98.89 107.53
May 100.86 114.97 97.70 98.11 101.99 106.73
June 100.62 115.60 98.21 98.11 103.78 105.72
July 100.55 116.07 98.64 98.13 105.04 105.07
August 100.23 115.93 98.82 97.70 104.87 102.32
September 99.96 114.67 98.78 97.06 104.73 100.39
October 99.81 113.35 98.82 96.73 103.97 98.51
November 100.02 112.08 99.25 97.05 102.47 98.46
December 100.62 110.92 100.31 98.28 101.08 98.87
2013 January 101.45 110.92 101.52 99.72 101.21 100.29
February 102.31 111.89 103.04 101.24 101.17 101.35
March 102.90 113.20 104.69 102.80 101.04 101.53
April 103.25 114.49 105.78 103.66 102.24 101.84
May 102.98 114.79 106.34 104.08 102.51 100.53
June 102.59 115.31 106.57 104.19 102.22 99.12
July 102.28 115.84 107.03 104.33 101.09 98.03
August 102.08 115.14 107.60 104.59 100.27 97.59
September 102.05 114.51 108.75 105.33 99.29 97.88
October 102.22 114.30 109.19 106.12 99.15 98.17
November 102.49 113.46 109.96 107.32 99.90 98.35
December 103.07 113.33 111.08 108.63 101.36 99.36
2014 January 104.11 114.12 111.51 110.13 105.54 99.95
February 105.64 116.61 112.58 111.97 108.57 100.57
March 107.76 120.11 114.04 113.63 113.31 101.71
April 110.02 123.88 115.88 115.23 118.97 103.16
May 112.05 126.89 117.45 116.88 122.49 104.76
June 113.60 128.70 118.42 117.97 127.27 105.57
July 114.65 129.66 118.72 118.81 130.33 105.51
August 115.30 129.24 119.09 119.68 133.21 105.80
September 115.73 128.95 119.37 120.43 135.58 105.26
October 116.25 128.40 119.41 121.66 137.65 104.70
November 116.87 128.42 120.54 122.83 138.29 104.96
December 117.44 128.70 121.46 123.61 139.75 105.30
2015 January 118.03 129.41 122.52 124.60 140.43 106.02
February 118.89 131.05 123.55 126.62 141.23 106.16
March 119.90 134.12 124.16 128.69 143.47 105.88
April 121.26 138.13 124.98 132.06 144.48 105.86
May 122.79 142.31 125.45 136.82 146.90 104.71
June 124.14 145.88 126.12 141.41 147.51 104.43
July 125.37 149.51 126.70 145.27 147.91 104.87
August 126.26 152.52 127.59 148.21 145.65 105.44
September 126.99 155.19 128.55 150.50 142.24 106.17
October 127.79 158.41 129.94 151.88 139.26 106.53
November 128.63 161.85 131.17 153.14 136.30 105.66
December 129.17 164.91 131.78 153.45 135.29 102.86
2016 January 129.02 166.00 132.18 153.48 133.84 99.29
February 128.04 165.81 131.27 151.70 136.28 93.74
March 126.48 164.36 130.49 148.60 137.22 89.72
April 124.98 161.95 129.67 146.27 138.41 86.22
May 123.75 160.14 129.33 144.69 138.31 83.23
June 123.49 159.41 129.95 143.86 137.36 84.04
July 124.09 158.90 130.97 144.52 138.35 85.28
August 125.14 158.41 132.36 146.58 137.05 87.96
September 126.22 158.15 133.49 147.21 136.63 91.48
October 126.82 157.17 134.14 147.17 136.34 94.39
November 127.37 156.37 134.57 146.76 136.20 97.07
December 127.39 155.53 134.56 145.87 134.39 98.69
2017 January 127.20 155.30 134.32 144.57 132.11 99.54
February 126.85 155.92 133.77 142.75 129.29 99.22
Source: Author's calculations, Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 228-0059.

Which manufacturing industries experienced growth in 2015 and 2016?

A line graph of Chart 23
Description for Chart 23
Real GDP, selected manufacturing industries
Wood product manufacturing Machinery manufacturing Motor vehicles and parts manufacturing Aerospace product and parts manufacturing
index (January 2007=100)
2007 January 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
February 101.0 104.6 101.1 100.5
March 100.1 104.8 104.5 101.3
April 98.5 103.9 101.0 100.1
May 96.6 102.8 99.6 102.6
June 98.7 103.0 96.6 103.1
July 93.8 101.7 98.7 104.8
August 96.7 101.5 97.3 106.5
September 93.3 106.7 97.6 107.7
October 93.4 103.2 99.3 109.4
November 94.7 100.9 97.5 110.7
December 90.3 97.4 82.6 113.2
2008 January 87.9 101.0 82.4 114.7
February 88.1 98.3 87.2 116.4
March 86.4 98.9 80.1 117.2
April 88.2 100.6 82.4 119.0
May 88.6 105.8 80.7 118.9
June 88.2 101.6 81.9 119.5
July 90.3 100.5 79.0 120.1
August 85.6 100.8 75.2 120.5
September 86.9 101.0 74.2 118.8
October 87.2 103.2 69.6 117.4
November 82.6 98.7 68.8 117.1
December 76.1 97.2 56.6 117.0
2009 January 75.8 93.2 44.8 115.3
February 72.0 89.5 48.5 111.7
March 70.6 86.8 49.3 111.0
April 66.6 85.0 51.2 106.9
May 67.6 85.1 45.1 103.1
June 68.9 81.8 42.9 101.2
July 69.4 80.9 50.2 98.9
August 71.4 80.8 58.4 97.2
September 73.0 77.6 60.6 96.6
October 71.5 77.8 61.3 96.1
November 74.5 80.0 61.3 95.4
December 74.8 78.1 64.7 95.7
2010 January 70.5 80.4 65.0 96.3
February 71.3 80.4 66.6 96.1
March 73.8 81.3 68.5 96.0
April 76.2 81.3 70.4 97.0
May 76.6 82.0 72.8 98.7
June 76.9 84.3 73.5 97.9
July 75.9 86.1 73.6 98.2
August 77.3 88.8 72.4 97.5
September 75.5 85.1 70.5 97.6
October 75.5 85.1 74.3 97.7
November 76.3 86.9 65.5 97.5
December 76.4 90.1 69.3 98.5
2011 January 77.9 92.2 75.8 96.3
February 77.4 92.2 73.0 96.2
March 76.4 94.4 76.5 95.7
April 77.5 97.1 71.0 96.4
May 76.0 99.2 69.7 97.0
June 75.1 98.7 70.6 97.6
July 79.1 102.7 74.1 98.6
August 74.4 100.6 73.9 100.3
September 75.8 106.0 74.3 100.9
October 80.4 106.6 75.3 101.3
November 77.4 112.4 76.7 102.5
December 79.3 111.2 82.5 102.2
2012 January 80.3 108.3 88.6 101.6
February 79.4 107.5 82.3 101.1
March 80.4 110.3 83.2 100.5
April 82.1 108.7 85.6 98.9
May 80.2 108.7 86.2 101.1
June 79.2 112.9 86.9 101.2
July 79.1 109.3 86.3 102.4
August 80.3 107.7 84.8 103.3
September 80.4 104.5 85.1 105.3
October 80.8 101.0 81.5 107.9
November 81.2 95.6 82.1 106.3
December 79.7 96.1 77.4 105.7
2013 January 81.6 100.0 78.0 105.9
February 84.5 99.5 78.9 105.6
March 84.7 103.4 81.4 106.5
April 85.0 105.2 81.3 105.8
May 87.6 107.5 79.1 106.2
June 88.3 105.7 82.6 105.2
July 88.3 106.2 79.0 108.6
August 88.2 106.4 78.9 109.9
September 88.3 107.3 82.6 112.0
October 87.7 108.2 84.3 114.2
November 88.6 109.0 83.4 112.0
December 86.0 107.5 80.7 112.2
2014 January 88.8 105.2 81.0 112.0
February 88.6 107.0 83.1 115.0
March 88.7 106.6 81.8 115.6
April 90.5 107.0 83.0 115.8
May 87.9 106.7 89.8 115.0
June 89.7 105.3 85.4 116.5
July 93.2 106.6 87.1 116.5
August 89.6 106.4 82.5 115.2
September 92.6 108.5 87.8 114.1
October 92.6 106.4 88.0 114.3
November 91.5 106.8 87.9 112.1
December 93.6 110.7 89.7 113.8
2015 January 92.6 109.1 85.9 113.9
February 92.4 106.5 81.4 113.1
March 94.7 108.3 84.0 113.1
April 94.6 105.5 82.4 112.4
May 93.2 103.5 85.2 110.8
June 94.9 101.5 82.5 108.9
July 95.9 101.3 88.4 106.8
August 99.1 99.3 90.1 106.1
September 94.7 96.8 88.8 105.1
October 96.7 99.5 88.8 103.0
November 99.6 97.6 90.3 104.8
December 105.6 96.1 90.8 106.4
2016 January 104.8 94.6 95.5 104.3
February 103.4 95.3 91.2 103.8
March 103.7 95.9 89.4 102.0
April 98.8 93.2 92.0 102.7
May 102.1 92.9 87.4 103.2
June 103.2 93.7 91.6 102.8
July 101.4 95.3 88.2 102.1
August 101.0 95.5 89.9 101.1
September 102.7 100.7 87.6 100.4
October 102.9 96.2 86.3 99.1
November 103.9 100.5 86.0 99.1
December 102.3 104.0 89.3 99.9
2017 January 105.9 105.4 90.3 101.6
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 379-0031.

How has manufacturing employment adjusted given recent economic events?

A line graph of Chart 24
Description for Chart 24
Manufacturing employment, Canada and selected provinces
  Canada Quebec Ontario Alberta
index (January 2007=100)
2007 January 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
February 98.70 95.46 99.73 97.67
March 98.50 95.83 99.14 97.60
April 97.49 94.03 98.11 96.31
May 96.61 93.20 97.92 93.45
June 95.44 92.86 96.61 94.04
July 96.45 91.60 98.98 88.85
August 96.55 94.13 97.74 92.94
September 95.91 92.43 96.79 92.94
October 95.41 92.20 96.67 93.13
November 94.84 90.82 97.55 90.54
December 93.34 91.84 94.33 88.72
2008 January 92.98 91.13 94.75 90.93
February 92.72 91.12 94.31 89.37
March 92.42 91.72 93.88 88.20
April 92.64 91.43 93.98 89.50
May 93.23 92.79 93.81 89.18
June 92.71 92.13 93.29 89.89
July 92.13 93.05 91.25 91.38
August 92.11 92.41 91.28 92.29
September 91.30 91.70 90.51 92.22
October 90.58 90.82 90.05 92.42
November 88.94 91.38 86.86 93.91
December 88.68 91.03 86.87 91.25
2009 January 85.25 88.98 82.23 88.98
February 84.08 89.15 81.52 82.50
March 83.91 89.60 80.87 84.77
April 83.75 89.62 81.29 79.78
May 82.21 90.15 77.65 79.13
June 81.37 89.59 77.04 77.84
July 81.83 89.46 78.34 78.22
August 82.21 88.66 79.35 76.80
September 83.02 88.95 80.48 77.58
October 82.94 88.86 81.69 76.93
November 82.66 89.28 81.41 77.38
December 82.40 88.14 81.59 79.46
2010 January 82.09 88.02 80.45 78.81
February 82.44 88.62 80.07 82.11
March 81.13 86.56 79.10 79.65
April 80.89 86.06 79.16 79.59
May 81.21 85.16 79.48 82.83
June 81.22 85.95 79.06 83.86
July 81.58 85.95 79.77 80.88
August 80.98 85.44 78.80 81.14
September 80.86 86.11 78.04 81.14
October 81.21 86.38 78.17 82.63
November 81.10 85.18 78.80 80.56
December 82.13 86.04 79.86 80.69
2011 January 82.44 86.61 80.57 81.72
February 82.85 86.80 80.50 85.94
March 82.58 86.00 80.45 89.18
April 82.78 86.57 80.34 88.08
May 82.87 85.66 81.36 87.43
June 82.12 85.82 79.97 88.98
July 82.03 84.75 81.22 88.08
August 81.82 84.40 80.31 88.53
September 81.44 83.51 80.21 86.78
October 80.38 81.24 79.30 86.39
November 80.99 82.58 79.46 85.35
December 81.31 82.72 79.75 85.74
2012 January 81.15 83.39 78.59 84.83
February 81.75 82.58 80.26 84.12
March 82.43 84.51 80.86 84.58
April 82.87 84.49 80.14 89.31
May 83.06 85.45 80.50 87.43
June 83.73 85.45 82.10 87.17
July 83.79 85.23 81.47 89.95
August 84.33 88.35 82.18 89.24
September 83.89 86.37 82.06 91.12
October 83.81 87.52 81.52 93.45
November 83.98 87.52 81.63 95.40
December 83.72 87.38 80.99 96.69
2013 January 83.28 86.26 80.93 96.44
February 82.86 85.69 80.78 94.23
March 82.54 84.83 80.66 96.31
April 82.67 85.83 80.89 95.14
May 81.94 85.63 80.02 92.74
June 81.43 84.28 79.50 91.25
July 81.62 85.64 78.53 90.21
August 81.51 84.11 78.67 93.78
September 81.70 83.77 79.14 90.47
October 81.46 84.56 79.12 89.50
November 81.37 84.70 79.27 87.75
December 81.51 84.97 78.90 89.70
2014 January 81.86 85.57 79.07 90.08
February 82.05 86.26 78.74 93.78
March 81.94 85.95 78.75 91.77
April 81.54 84.73 78.55 92.42
May 80.98 83.63 77.50 91.12
June 81.45 84.70 77.41 93.65
July 81.60 84.25 77.89 95.46
August 80.99 83.51 76.62 96.82
September 81.17 84.16 75.77 95.72
October 81.51 83.44 77.50 94.88
November 81.06 82.41 78.06 93.84
December 80.68 82.92 76.93 93.45
2015 January 81.12 82.68 76.83 97.21
February 80.12 82.91 75.70 92.35
March 80.62 83.34 76.14 92.16
April 81.08 84.33 76.73 91.77
May 82.04 84.33 78.16 91.45
June 81.72 84.16 77.70 90.73
July 81.35 84.02 77.45 91.51
August 81.33 84.28 77.74 87.56
September 81.32 84.78 76.11 88.59
October 81.57 84.06 77.65 87.30
November 82.21 85.30 77.86 88.72
December 82.43 84.66 78.54 88.85
2016 January 81.81 85.38 78.31 81.85
February 82.15 85.88 79.40 80.49
March 80.96 84.40 78.24 76.54
April 80.28 84.13 77.90 74.27
May 80.56 85.75 78.10 74.27
June 80.16 84.82 77.48 76.34
July 80.39 85.16 78.56 72.85
August 80.50 84.78 78.18 73.17
September 80.79 84.92 78.11 74.27
October 80.46 85.30 77.63 73.04
November 79.98 84.82 77.34 72.46
December 80.07 84.71 77.45 71.03
2017 January 80.04 83.46 78.90 68.50
February 79.79 83.28 78.20 70.38
March 80.95 83.56 79.55 73.62
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0088.

Summary

Recent developments in the Canadian economy

  • Since oil prices started to decline in mid-2014, the pace of economic growth has slowed, reflecting lower business investment, while exports and household spending have continued to support growth.
  • Non-energy exports have not offset energy-related declines.
  • The composition of employment growth has changed, as full-time declines, concentrated in Alberta, have been more than offset by broad-based gains in part-time work in 2016. Full-time employment has increased in early 2017.
  • Economic conditions in Alberta have changed markedly since mid-2014.

References

  • Macdonald R., and L. Rispoli. 2016. A Historical Perspective on Recent Movements in Canada's Purchasing Power Parity. Economic Insights, no. 065. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-626X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
  • Macdonald R., and L. Rispoli. 2016. How big was the Effect of Falling Commodity Prices on Canadian Real Incomes between mid-2014 and mid-2016? Economic Insights, no. 066. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-626X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
  • OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2016. "Quarterly National Accounts: Gross domestic product – expenditure approach" OECD Quarterly National Accounts (database). (Accessed March 9, 2017).
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2017. "Cushing, OK, WTI Spot Price FOB Monthly." Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (table). (Accessed April 4, 2017).
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