Analytical Studies: Methods and References
The DYSEM Microsimulation Modelling Platform

by Kevin Moore, Chantal Hicks, Jennifer Jones and Martin Spielauer
Social Analysis and Modelling Division

Release date: July 28, 2017

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Abstract

The DYSEM microsimulation modelling platform provides a demographic and socioeconomic core that can be readily built upon to develop custom dynamic microsimulation models or applications. This paper describes DYSEM and provides an overview of its intended uses, as well as the methods and data used in its development.

Keywords: microsimulation, dynamic, socioeconomic, distributional, projections

1 Introduction

This paper provides an introduction to version 1.0 of the DYSEM microsimulation modelling platform. It includes a discussion of the context for its development, the platform’s intended uses, and an overview of the methods and data used in its development.

DYSEM is a platform upon which dynamic socioeconomic microsimulation models can be built. Microsimulation models are computer models that simulate individual actors, which can be aggregated to represent a population. These models are particularly useful for exploring policy‑oriented “what‑if” questions and producing distributional results. They have been used in many domains—for example, the 2015 winter edition of the International Journal of Microsimulation contained articles describing microsimulation models used to explore issues related to subway carriage design (Cao et al. 2015), health care financing (Hennessy, Sanmartin et al. 2015), pension reform (Tikanmäki, Sihvonen and Salonen 2015), and tax evasion (Albarea et al. 2015). To create such models, a number of data sources are often integrated, thereby yielding more comprehensive portraits of the phenomena being modelled than those available from traditional data sources.

Statistics Canada has developed a number of microsimulation models. The oldest, the Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M) (Bordt et al. 1990), released in 1988, is a static model used to estimate the distributional impact of changes to taxes or transfers. Demosim (Caron‑Malenfant and Coulombe 2015), a detailed population projection model, projects the Canadian population according to various ethnocultural characteristics, the Aboriginal population, and the labour force. Statistics Canada has also created a variety of health models: POHEM (Hennessy, Flanagan et al. 2015) models health, risk factors and disease; POHEM‑Neurological (Finès et al. 2016) models seven neurological conditions; and ONCOSIMNote  (Evans et al. 2013), developed with the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, models the health and economic impacts of cancer treatment and control programs.

Dynamic microsimulation models, which, unlike static models, simulate individual life histories from birth to death, have also been used to model socioeconomic outcomes in Canada, including education, earnings, pensions, and taxes and transfers. The two oldest‑ LifePaths and DYNACAN―are no longer being developed. LifePaths (Rowe and Gribble 2007), developed at Statistics Canada, was used to analyze topics such as student loans, pensions, disability, and savings. DYNACAN (Morrison 2007) was used by Human Resource Development Canada to model the Canada Pension Plan. SIMUL (Clavet et al. 2014) is a newer model for Quebec, which was developed at Laval University.

DYSEM is intended to be used as a platform to develop dynamic microsimulation models with similar goals‑answering forward‑looking questions that hinge on income or education in domains such as retirement income and long‑term care of the elderly. It allows the simulation of millions of detailed, realistic individual life courses that, together, represent the Canadian population at the national and provincial/territorial levels.

2 Overview: The DYSEM microsimulation platform

The aim of Statistics Canada’s DYSEM project is to create a flexible, relatively simple, user‑friendly “model core” that can serve as a foundation for model development. Users can build on this backbone to produce custom microsimulation models to address specific research questions by developing modules for additional demographic or socio‑economic aspects of actors’ life histories, such as marital dynamics, pensions, savings, and caregiving. Because DYSEM will be released to the public, these models can be built by clients themselves; alternatively, Statistics Canada can provide services on a cost‑recovery basis.

DYSEM simulates and projects the Canadian population starting on July 1, 2011.Note  It is a dynamic continuous‑timeNote  event‑based modelling platform. Figure 1‑1 and Figure 1‑2 display the current contents of the DYSEM platform.Note  The synthetic actors simulated by DYSEM are created either as part of the July 1, 2011 ‘starting’ population, or by births or immigration to Canada after that date. In order to project the evolution of the population after July 1, 2011, mortality, emigration, and interprovincial migration are modelled. In all cases, actors are created at birth and followed until death or emigration from Canada. The demographic components in DYSEM use Statistics Canada’s population projections as inputs. The default scenario replicates the M1 scenario of the most recent population projections for the provinces and territories (Statistics Canada 2015a), but users may substitute other scenarios. Details about the methods, data, and assumptions underlying the M1 scenario and the official population projections are available in a technical report (Statistics Canada 2015b).

The current version of the DYSEM core also simulates four levels of educational attainment: less than high school graduation, high school graduation, graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor’s degree, and graduation with a bachelor’s degree or above. It is anticipated that the next release of the DYSEM core will also include the simulation of earnings.

Figure 1-1 DYSEM components – Actors in DYSEM

Description for Figure 1-1

The title of Figure 1-1 is “DYSEM components — Actors in DYSEM.”

This diagram presents the synthetic actors simulated by DYSEM. The three types of actors modelled in DYSEM are Canadian residents on July 1, 2011 (the ‘starting population’), births after July 1, 2011 and immigrants after July 1, 2011.

There is no source for this figure.

Figure 1-2 DYSEM components — Demographic and socio-economic events in DYSEM

Description for Figure 1-2

The title of Figure 1-2 is “DYSEM components — Demographic and socio-economic events in DYSEM.”

The diagram depicts the various demographic and socio-economic events modelled in DYSEM. These include birth, immigration, emigration, mortality, interprovincial migration, and three educational attainment events: high school graduation, graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor’s degree, and graduation with a bachelor’s degree or above.

There is no source for this diagram.

Particular care has been taken to ensure that the platform not only produces appropriate national‑level results, but also reproduces observed provincial‑level differences. DYSEM is implemented in the Modgen microsimulation language developed and maintained at Statistics Canada.Note 

The remainder of this report documents the methods and data used to develop the existing components of DYSEM in more detail, and provides some validation of the model’s results.

3 DYSEM demography: Technical details and validation

3.1 Creating actors

Unlike models that start with a pre‑existing database and project that population forward, DYSEM creates all actors at birth by sampling from a distribution. The distribution consists of three separate subpopulations: the population at July 1, 2011, the number of people born after that date, and the number who immigrated after that date. DYSEM users specify the total number of actors that they wish to be modelled in a simulation, and can vary the distributions of the subpopulations, which are stored as parameters. With this information, DYSEM creates the desired number of actors by randomly sampling from the overall distribution. The final results are weighted to represent the total population. With this methodology, users can run small simulations (fewer actors) for testing purposes, medium simulations for most purposes, and extremely large simulations to oversample and create more precise results for rare populations (for example, residents of Nunavut or individuals living past age 95).

After their creation, actors are assigned additional characteristics in accordance with these subpopulations, as discussed below.

3.2 Starting population – July 1, 2011

DYSEM creates a starting population that is consistent with Statistics Canada’s population estimates for July 1, 2011. Individual actors are assigned a year of birth (from 1901 to 2011), sex, and province of residence (10 provinces and 3 territories) as of July 1, 2011, according to a random draw from the distribution of the population in the population estimates.

These characteristics are used to impute each actor’s province/territory of birth, according to a custom tabulation from the 2011 Census. Immigrants in the starting population are assigned “Born Abroad” as their province of birth.

Individuals are randomly assigned a birthday within their year of birth. Immigrants in the starting population are also assigned an age at immigration to Canada, according to the distribution observed by year of birth and sex in custom tabulations from the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS).

Although individuals in the starting population are modelled from their birth, demographic processes such as mortality, emigration, and interprovincial migration are suspended until July 1, 2011, in order to reproduce the population estimates as of that date. Modelling these individuals from their birth rather than imputing them solely at July 1, 2011, provides additional flexibility.

3.3 Additions to the population – Births and immigrants

DYSEM creates new actors (births and immigrants) in each year of the simulation from July 1, 2011, onward. The number of new actors is determined by modifiable parameter tables. These new actors are not related to existing actors in the simulation―that is, fertility is not modelled, and no parent/child links are created between actors. A random draw is used to assign sex and province of residence to new actors upon their birth or immigration to Canada according to the distribution of the relevant subpopulation in the parameters. Immigrants are assigned an age at immigration in the same manner.

As a default, the number of births and immigrants each year, by sex and province of residence, is drawn from Statistics Canada’s 2015 population projections, M1 scenario (Statistics Canada 2015a). In this scenario, it is assumed that fertility rates increase modestly in all provinces and territories from 2011 to 2021, after which they are held constant. It is also assumed that the rate of future immigration remains comparable to the recently observed medium‑term average, while reflecting observed provincial/territorial differences (Bohnert and Dion 2015). The characteristics of new immigrants are assumed to remain stable in the future.

Estimates for the number of projected births and immigrants in 2013 were assumed to apply to 2011 and 2012 as well (reduced by half for 2011 because only additions after July 1 need to be modelled).Note 

3.4 Emigration after July 1, 2011

DYSEM simulates emigration to other countries. Starting in the second half of 2011, each individual faces a hazardNote  of emigrating. These hazard rates are used to determine a waiting time until emigration by drawing randomly from an exponential distribution. Emigration hazards vary by age, sex, and province of residence. The random waiting times are re‑estimated whenever one of these attributes changes. Simulation of individuals ends at their emigration.

Return migration―individuals who return to Canada after emigrating―is not modelled explicitly in DYSEM; instead, migration is implemented using “net emigration rates,” which are calculated by summing the number of regular and net temporary emigrants and subtracting returning emigrants. A limitation of this approach, although minor in impact, is that the population modelled will be somewhat more stable, in terms of consistency of residence in Canada, than the actual population.

The default net emigration rates are those underlying Statistics Canada’s 2015 population projections, M1 scenario. Net emigration rates in this scenario are assumed to remain constant over time. Discussion of these emigration concepts and details about this scenario are available elsewhere (Bohnert, Dion and Chagnon 2015).

3.5 Mortality after July 1, 2011

After July 1, 2011, each individual simulated in DYSEM faces a mortality hazard, which is used to determine a waiting time until death by drawing randomly from an exponential distribution. Users can choose one of two mortality hazards—national or province‑specific. These vary by age, sex, and calendar year. The random waiting times until death are re‑estimated whenever one of these parameters changes. Simulation of individuals ends at their death.

The default mortality hazards used are those underlying Statistics Canada’s 2015 population projections, M1 scenario. Projected average life expectancy for males rises from 79.3 in 2010 to 87.6 in 2062/2063; for females, it increases from 83.6 to 89.2 (Dion et al. 2015).

Because projected mortality hazard rates were not available for 2011, those for 2012 were applied for the second half of 2011.

3.6 Interprovincial migration after July 1, 2011

Interprovincial migration (changes in province or territory of residence) is modelled by applying annual transition probabilities to each actor, starting in the second half of 2011. After 2011, they are applied at the beginning of each year. These probabilities are disaggregated by sex, age and current province or territory of residence. Probabilities are set for individuals moving from their current province or territory of residence to each of the remaining twelve. The probability of not moving is calculated as the residual (1 minus the sum of all the probabilities of moving to the other provinces and territories).

The parameters for projecting interprovincial migration were adapted from a series of age‑, sex‑, origin‑ and destination‑specific transition rates computed for the M1 scenario of Statistics Canada’s population projections for the provinces and territories. In this scenario, it is assumed that the transition rates in the first projection year correspond to the average annual rates observed between 1991 and 2011, and that they evolve over time (to take into account the changes in the shares of the regions of the total Canadian population). This adjustment over the course of the projection aims to stabilize the projected net migration of the regions, and is applied every projection year (Dion 2015). In DYSEM, a set of baseline transition probabilities is used the first year, and these probabilities are modified according to a series of adjustment factors reflecting variations observed in the M1 scenario. Generally, the M1 scenario suggests that British Columbia and Alberta experience positive net interprovincial migration, whereas Ontario and Prince Edward Island experience near‑zero net migration, and the other provinces, negative net migration.

3.7 Validation of demographic results

Population pyramids effectively demonstrate the net impact of all demographic processes combined—births, deaths, immigration, emigration and interprovincial migration. Chart 1 compares the population pyramid for Canada generated by DYSEM with the population pyramid provided by population estimates and population projections for three points in time—the end of 2011, 2015, and 2050―the DYSEM results (shown in blue) and demographic estimates/projections (shown in red) are overlaid. Counts for females are shown to the left of center, and for males, to the right. Results are displayed by single year of age, from age zero at the bottom of the pyramids to 100+ at the peak.

Chart 1 Population pyramid, 2011, 2015 and 2050, DYSEM demographic estimates and demographic projections, Canada

Data table for Chart 1
Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 2011, 2015, 2050, DEMOG: Canada (female), DYSEM: Canada (female), DEMOG: Canada (male), DYSEM: Canada (male) and DEMOG: Canada (male), calculated using population units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age 2011 2015 2050
DEMOG: Canada (female) DYSEM: Canada (female) DEMOG: Canada (male) DYSEM: Canada (male) DEMOG: Canada (female) DYSEM: Canada (female) DEMOG: Canada (male) DYSEM: Canada (male) DEMOG: Canada (female) DYSEM: Canada (female) DEMOG: Canada (male) DYSEM: Canada (male)
population
0 -91,740 -91,541 96,368 96,083 -191,792 -194,408 201,266 203,850 -233,016 -234,753 244,605 246,607
1 -184,334 -184,460 193,560 193,756 -190,174 -192,229 199,457 201,584 -232,451 -233,991 243,902 246,183
2 -185,715 -185,589 195,267 195,470 -188,562 -191,165 198,207 200,520 -232,555 -233,965 243,956 246,148
3 -186,586 -186,886 195,895 196,203 -188,039 -192,206 197,805 202,127 -232,610 -234,099 244,048 246,266
4 -184,701 -184,483 193,769 193,764 -189,046 -194,186 198,593 203,272 -232,599 -234,496 244,126 246,195
5 -180,275 -180,195 189,405 189,007 -191,120 -189,635 200,641 200,167 -232,552 -234,799 244,165 245,916
6 -176,444 -176,396 185,471 185,689 -192,153 -192,264 202,426 202,112 -232,473 -234,757 244,190 246,521
7 -175,270 -175,392 184,619 184,651 -193,019 -193,678 202,221 203,267 -232,360 -234,494 244,203 245,678
8 -174,689 -174,922 183,814 183,301 -188,488 -191,422 198,353 200,785 -232,245 -234,123 244,204 246,205
9 -173,945 -174,018 183,051 183,514 -184,011 -186,760 193,310 196,427 -232,149 -234,095 244,210 245,753
10 -174,934 -174,848 185,155 185,475 -180,718 -182,831 190,371 192,958 -232,099 -233,885 244,259 246,372
11 -178,443 -178,597 189,396 189,252 -181,516 -182,138 191,589 191,892 -232,103 -234,077 244,389 246,185
12 -182,233 -182,259 192,905 192,845 -179,429 -181,421 188,672 191,283 -232,207 -234,203 244,609 246,490
13 -186,169 -186,012 196,410 196,493 -179,827 -180,778 189,876 190,658 -232,477 -234,010 245,006 246,748
14 -191,971 -192,391 203,250 202,945 -181,383 -181,967 192,906 193,078 -232,993 -234,062 245,636 247,255
15 -200,320 -200,543 211,989 212,299 -187,030 -185,765 198,429 196,699 -233,792 -235,017 246,548 247,397
16 -208,251 -208,201 219,877 220,233 -188,931 -188,910 199,811 200,273 -234,879 -235,863 247,744 248,291
17 -211,655 -211,314 223,908 224,237 -194,946 -192,975 205,380 203,829 -236,250 -236,498 249,219 249,596
18 -214,428 -214,211 225,058 225,136 -200,678 -198,714 213,262 210,499 -237,927 -238,444 250,912 251,401
19 -218,372 -218,539 225,960 226,020 -211,585 -207,324 222,470 219,323 -239,927 -239,503 252,717 252,499
20 -221,661 -221,317 227,706 227,447 -216,468 -215,197 228,415 226,601 -242,252 -241,780 254,576 254,798
21 -223,609 -223,379 228,613 228,679 -218,743 -218,718 229,782 229,832 -244,877 -244,501 256,504 256,104
22 -220,661 -220,852 224,349 223,979 -222,917 -222,253 230,303 231,367 -247,823 -247,606 258,492 257,861
23 -214,671 -214,791 216,893 216,599 -227,760 -227,093 231,427 232,101 -251,079 -250,263 260,520 260,379
24 -213,567 -213,453 214,160 214,256 -231,065 -231,186 234,071 233,579 -254,645 -254,487 262,620 262,131
25 -217,530 -217,671 217,831 217,714 -233,839 -234,695 234,078 235,283 -258,525 -258,446 264,894 264,671
26 -221,832 -221,674 222,086 222,432 -227,527 -232,999 226,884 231,218 -262,656 -262,585 267,359 267,014
27 -223,964 -224,093 223,221 223,689 -224,537 -228,527 220,889 225,010 -266,822 -266,940 269,959 270,086
28 -225,505 -225,612 223,466 223,550 -228,001 -228,101 223,841 223,960 -270,869 -271,237 272,603 273,567
29 -226,744 -227,083 223,813 223,975 -234,507 -232,858 230,803 228,061 -273,789 -275,408 274,346 276,566
30 -228,763 -229,140 226,128 225,978 -238,023 -237,293 234,311 233,621 -276,432 -278,066 276,021 277,650
31 -229,332 -229,609 227,302 227,520 -239,467 -239,614 234,826 234,960 -278,737 -280,683 277,569 279,391
32 -226,567 -226,438 223,507 222,922 -241,000 -240,774 236,098 236,255 -280,654 -282,405 278,892 281,462
33 -223,495 -223,768 219,869 219,706 -241,104 -242,264 235,891 236,411 -282,167 -284,322 279,961 282,340
34 -222,729 -222,432 219,100 218,878 -243,305 -243,307 240,112 238,456 -283,213 -285,385 280,672 283,397
35 -223,776 -224,110 220,081 220,148 -240,496 -243,107 237,215 239,395 -283,841 -286,512 281,062 283,682
36 -224,372 -224,422 221,299 221,343 -236,215 -238,951 231,447 234,625 -284,117 -286,456 281,152 283,386
37 -222,462 -222,457 219,297 219,170 -232,429 -234,829 228,690 230,713 -283,604 -286,570 280,900 283,764
38 -220,476 -220,295 217,823 217,690 -232,759 -233,852 228,432 228,959 -283,872 -288,246 281,165 285,820
39 -222,457 -222,257 221,054 221,081 -232,739 -233,950 229,141 229,572 -285,369 -290,839 282,298 287,142
40 -229,841 -229,588 229,067 229,410 -232,566 -233,929 229,396 229,493 -287,615 -286,810 284,274 284,486
41 -234,935 -234,771 234,522 234,563 -227,677 -230,895 223,642 227,386 -288,674 -289,457 285,847 286,160
42 -234,165 -234,241 233,688 233,481 -227,216 -228,673 225,145 225,439 -289,380 -290,639 285,388 287,023
43 -233,361 -233,564 232,758 232,481 -230,385 -230,283 228,980 227,697 -284,936 -288,128 281,459 284,018
44 -234,478 -234,421 234,191 234,543 -240,880 -236,479 239,973 235,196 -280,397 -283,701 276,322 279,633
45 -242,179 -242,466 243,654 243,583 -239,483 -240,598 238,589 239,520 -276,713 -279,316 272,939 275,977
46 -257,495 -257,341 259,824 259,833 -238,272 -239,474 237,071 238,472 -276,655 -278,067 273,178 274,021
47 -270,636 -270,148 272,985 273,030 -236,614 -237,908 235,524 236,927 -273,746 -276,303 269,558 272,620
48 -275,767 -275,798 278,940 278,765 -238,836 -238,773 238,526 237,488 -272,928 -274,725 269,443 270,871
49 -274,837 -275,091 277,529 277,264 -250,467 -245,213 252,892 246,254 -272,872 -274,352 270,721 271,663
50 -274,704 -274,130 276,481 276,444 -268,160 -259,355 269,363 261,394 -276,349 -275,688 273,998 273,250
51 -274,404 -274,380 275,587 275,845 -275,626 -271,626 277,637 273,495 -276,218 -277,217 273,420 274,804
52 -269,357 -269,042 269,853 269,659 -277,414 -276,253 279,833 277,662 -279,719 -278,714 276,428 275,594
53 -264,630 -264,619 265,481 265,364 -272,604 -274,433 273,259 276,150 -282,833 -282,029 281,382 280,024
54 -259,829 -259,689 260,651 261,008 -275,911 -273,790 276,087 274,360 -290,416 -287,026 287,342 285,473
55 -253,099 -253,512 253,282 253,344 -271,168 -273,249 270,360 273,275 -292,431 -291,653 290,389 289,449
56 -247,883 -247,859 247,325 247,203 -265,185 -267,599 263,514 265,963 -291,933 -292,439 289,424 290,030
57 -241,811 -241,569 239,887 239,842 -261,158 -262,315 260,328 261,297 -292,869 -293,018 287,596 288,879
58 -231,656 -231,231 228,871 229,057 -255,227 -256,891 252,863 256,017 -294,157 -294,140 286,203 287,440
59 -221,680 -221,665 218,907 219,149 -247,334 -250,548 244,763 247,850 -293,748 -294,301 285,982 286,255
60 -215,085 -215,395 212,403 212,340 -244,586 -245,411 240,275 241,668 -292,397 -293,938 283,087 284,911
61 -210,806 -210,738 207,461 207,690 -234,871 -238,400 229,270 233,390 -282,692 -288,092 273,560 278,136
62 -206,804 -207,381 202,161 202,056 -223,932 -228,131 217,599 222,583 -275,760 -279,823 264,843 268,988
63 -204,761 -204,808 199,246 199,572 -214,683 -218,130 208,844 211,586 -274,468 -275,461 263,644 264,466
64 -204,196 -204,398 197,870 197,652 -210,170 -211,261 203,836 204,718 -275,783 -274,628 265,602 263,848
65 -189,460 -189,072 182,670 182,380 -205,508 -206,258 198,059 199,827 -274,368 -274,438 264,378 264,549
66 -168,672 -168,734 161,823 161,789 -201,394 -202,170 192,326 193,489 -271,151 -271,922 260,487 261,316
67 -159,969 -160,260 151,982 152,056 -200,216 -199,200 190,819 190,127 -267,994 -268,378 257,074 258,320
68 -154,366 -154,749 145,104 145,277 -198,957 -197,991 187,924 187,424 -263,676 -265,155 252,447 253,540
69 -146,025 -146,144 135,573 135,379 -170,322 -182,815 160,195 171,487 -261,337 -262,066 251,503 250,718
70 -138,096 -138,379 126,103 126,305 -157,359 -162,606 146,771 151,534 -254,630 -257,109 244,472 247,110
71 -131,013 -131,278 118,016 117,836 -152,128 -153,809 139,897 141,666 -246,642 -249,443 234,995 238,553
72 -124,225 -124,501 110,916 110,917 -145,271 -147,423 131,924 133,765 -239,106 -241,623 228,017 230,392
73 -118,905 -119,036 105,278 105,429 -134,722 -138,437 120,234 123,844 -235,103 -236,404 223,015 224,076
74 -113,312 -113,155 99,024 98,934 -128,483 -129,980 112,463 114,130 -230,648 -232,091 218,659 219,847
75 -109,221 -109,058 94,139 94,558 -119,745 -122,341 103,292 105,829 -225,990 -227,568 213,740 214,551
76 -105,784 -105,739 89,761 89,366 -113,965 -114,930 97,369 98,135 -217,224 -220,350 203,779 207,715
77 -101,212 -101,245 84,377 84,402 -107,772 -109,316 90,953 91,788 -212,036 -213,688 199,371 200,442
78 -98,267 -98,120 80,413 80,190 -101,618 -102,763 83,907 84,912 -209,643 -210,150 196,427 196,468
79 -96,437 -96,628 77,120 76,966 -98,169 -97,899 79,737 79,842 -212,718 -209,710 198,312 195,768
80 -93,929 -93,965 72,910 72,948 -92,947 -93,731 73,625 73,912 -205,900 -207,140 190,336 192,127
81 -90,190 -90,130 67,592 67,365 -87,308 -87,882 67,849 68,264 -198,875 -200,306 181,813 183,744
82 -84,479 -84,796 60,970 60,815 -85,015 -84,239 64,056 63,438 -191,160 -192,447 172,801 174,709
83 -79,248 -79,465 54,765 55,066 -81,321 -81,089 59,324 58,896 -185,847 -186,256 166,258 166,796
84 -74,329 -74,234 48,962 49,043 -77,647 -77,101 54,144 54,396 -186,387 -183,259 165,897 162,887
85 -69,287 -69,156 42,934 42,958 -71,663 -72,059 47,948 48,521 -189,671 -184,508 165,001 161,441
86 -64,372 -64,432 37,309 37,454 -64,711 -65,598 41,107 42,044 -184,513 -182,458 157,572 156,768
87 -58,582 -58,774 32,017 32,000 -59,570 -59,507 35,832 36,300 -174,492 -174,629 145,543 145,683
88 -52,450 -52,543 26,996 26,937 -53,276 -53,401 30,111 30,553 -159,607 -161,286 128,476 130,905
89 -46,514 -46,543 22,609 22,650 -48,073 -47,794 25,048 25,248 -148,245 -148,095 115,086 115,473
90 -40,453 -40,388 18,743 18,748 -42,116 -42,044 20,345 20,631 -131,785 -133,297 97,816 99,786
91 -33,930 -33,841 14,721 14,757 -35,935 -36,024 16,377 16,210 -114,498 -115,891 80,825 82,121
92 -26,744 -26,815 10,625 10,613 -30,045 -30,074 12,699 12,475 -98,240 -99,143 66,148 66,755
93 -20,371 -20,443 7,439 7,480 -24,749 -24,479 9,912 9,532 -81,912 -82,892 51,974 52,815
94 -16,077 -15,914 5,496 5,468 -19,658 -19,463 7,331 7,077 -66,181 -67,503 39,664 40,145
95 -12,495 -12,543 3,908 3,896 -14,936 -14,781 5,001 4,948 -53,218 -53,623 29,852 29,776
96 -9,301 -9,254 2,599 2,583 -10,165 -10,589 2,951 3,219 -40,541 -41,264 21,255 21,426
97 -6,796 -6,779 1,738 1,749 -6,981 -7,194 1,791 1,985 -29,827 -30,509 14,633 14,619
98 -4,890 -4,942 1,151 1,117 -4,804 -4,935 1,052 1,275 -21,419 -21,843 9,873 9,687
99 -3,392 -3,379 724 746 -3,150 -3,461 575 764 -15,206 -15,313 6,546 6,291
100+ -5,888 -5,896 1,008 979 -5,893 -5,691 891 1,025 -27,867 -28,103 10,228 9,678

The DYSEM results for 2011 have been validated against the population estimates used in the imputation of its starting population, and confirm the accuracy of the process—the DYSEM and population estimates are indistinguishable (Chart 1).

The DYSEM results for 2015 and 2050 have been validated against Statistics Canada’s 2015 official population projections, M1 scenario. Because the assumptions and methods used to project future outcomes in DYSEM were chosen to replicate these official projections as closely as possible, a strong match is expected. For this validation, provincial‑level rather than national mortality rates were used.

Overall, DYSEM results match the official population projections for 2015 and 2050 very closely. The main reason why they would not be identical after 2011 is that they use different starting populations. DYSEM uses the official population estimates at July 1, 2011, as its starting population and moves it forward, whereas the 2015 population projections use the population estimates at July 1, 2013, as its starting population. Any divergences between DYSEM’s assumptions for births, deaths, emigration, immigration, and interprovincial migration in that 24‑month period and actual observed outcomes will create ongoing differences between DYSEM results and the official population projections. Indeed, between 2015 and 2050, the differences between the two sets of results are pushed up the population pyramid, leaving virtually no differences in the younger half of the population.

Charts 2, 3, and 4 present the same information for New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Nunavut, respectively. The population pyramids of these jurisdictions reflect differing demographic histories and projected trends. They also represent relatively small populations—in 2011, 2.2% of the Canadian population resided in New Brunswick; 3.1%, in Saskatchewan; and 0.1%, in Nunavut.

DYSEM reflects the differences in the population pyramids between these three areas. The differences in 2015 are more pronounced, especially in Saskatchewan. But DYSEM reproduces the population projections well by 2050. The precision and fine‑level of detail in these validation results are attributable to an unusually large simulation performed to minimize Monte Carlo variability.Note 

Chart 2 Population pyramid, 2011, 2015 and 2050, DYSEM demographic estimates and demographic projections, New Brunswick

Data table for Chart 2
Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 2011, 2015, 2050, DEMOG: New-Brunswick (female), DYSEM: New-Brunswick (female), DEMOG: New-Brunswick (male) and DYSEM: New-Brunswick (male), calculated using population units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age 2011 2015 2050
DEMOG: New Brunswick (female) DYSEM: New Brunswick (female) DEMOG: New Brunswick (male) DYSEM: New Brunswick (male) DEMOG: New Brunswick (female) DYSEM: New Brunswick (female) DEMOG: New Brunswick (male) DYSEM: New Brunswick (male) DEMOG: New Brunswick (female) DYSEM: New Brunswick (female) DEMOG: New Brunswick (male) DYSEM: New Brunswick (male)
population
0 -1,772 -1,755 1,814 1,824 -3,352 -3,362 3,533 3,496 -2,811 -2,755 2,964 2,941
1 -3,584 -3,592 3,631 3,646 -3,367 -3,376 3,558 3,449 -2,838 -2,822 3,000 2,988
2 -3,593 -3,560 3,742 3,736 -3,477 -3,433 3,578 3,607 -2,869 -2,826 3,033 3,012
3 -3,559 -3,572 3,846 3,813 -3,586 -3,438 3,580 3,550 -2,902 -2,878 3,064 3,067
4 -3,537 -3,545 3,784 3,752 -3,672 -3,463 3,600 3,580 -2,935 -2,879 3,091 3,120
5 -3,499 -3,517 3,696 3,709 -3,732 -3,675 3,654 3,710 -2,969 -2,926 3,116 3,099
6 -3,431 -3,418 3,670 3,656 -3,636 -3,655 3,881 3,780 -3,001 -3,022 3,140 3,161
7 -3,481 -3,460 3,700 3,740 -3,615 -3,620 3,924 3,888 -3,032 -3,029 3,163 3,168
8 -3,587 -3,600 3,733 3,737 -3,556 -3,684 3,827 3,846 -3,061 -3,038 3,187 3,193
9 -3,565 -3,542 3,769 3,773 -3,517 -3,622 3,776 3,729 -3,086 -3,081 3,212 3,220
10 -3,582 -3,587 3,817 3,801 -3,417 -3,547 3,797 3,708 -3,109 -3,088 3,238 3,242
11 -3,697 -3,746 3,980 3,969 -3,625 -3,571 3,842 3,778 -3,130 -3,124 3,264 3,237
12 -3,746 -3,725 4,127 4,093 -3,633 -3,707 3,858 3,841 -3,151 -3,126 3,291 3,252
13 -3,862 -3,814 4,196 4,220 -3,592 -3,662 3,918 3,830 -3,171 -3,184 3,320 3,282
14 -3,957 -3,943 4,321 4,262 -3,702 -3,660 3,939 3,836 -3,193 -3,157 3,347 3,317
15 -4,026 -4,035 4,430 4,421 -3,855 -3,797 4,191 4,082 -3,215 -3,208 3,377 3,322
16 -4,229 -4,267 4,569 4,596 -3,789 -3,738 4,174 4,166 -3,236 -3,251 3,400 3,344
17 -4,422 -4,388 4,699 4,707 -4,030 -3,884 4,299 4,276 -3,259 -3,271 3,426 3,354
18 -4,555 -4,553 4,807 4,797 -3,908 -3,956 4,385 4,307 -3,282 -3,273 3,449 3,413
19 -4,600 -4,659 4,826 4,820 -4,092 -4,011 4,480 4,413 -3,300 -3,235 3,466 3,419
20 -4,634 -4,623 4,844 4,864 -4,223 -4,258 4,604 4,547 -3,313 -3,295 3,474 3,445
21 -4,644 -4,644 4,897 4,930 -4,351 -4,269 4,592 4,502 -3,313 -3,291 3,461 3,413
22 -4,512 -4,516 4,794 4,757 -4,357 -4,391 4,613 4,550 -3,307 -3,283 3,437 3,424
23 -4,291 -4,286 4,657 4,683 -4,345 -4,414 4,458 4,526 -3,300 -3,242 3,410 3,329
24 -4,145 -4,170 4,591 4,592 -4,366 -4,416 4,528 4,499 -3,302 -3,239 3,391 3,353
25 -4,159 -4,170 4,491 4,407 -4,350 -4,409 4,478 4,549 -3,317 -3,339 3,387 3,319
26 -4,227 -4,204 4,412 4,447 -4,162 -4,338 4,351 4,517 -3,360 -3,323 3,419 3,304
27 -4,273 -4,273 4,440 4,463 -4,049 -4,299 4,324 4,462 -3,414 -3,405 3,460 3,430
28 -4,369 -4,398 4,533 4,541 -4,013 -4,149 4,383 4,464 -3,471 -3,432 3,506 3,470
29 -4,353 -4,361 4,591 4,666 -4,186 -4,266 4,288 4,436 -3,512 -3,491 3,538 3,531
30 -4,351 -4,370 4,495 4,505 -4,239 -4,316 4,339 4,465 -3,546 -3,501 3,565 3,476
31 -4,430 -4,445 4,391 4,421 -4,315 -4,378 4,414 4,486 -3,572 -3,574 3,585 3,533
32 -4,380 -4,427 4,337 4,301 -4,412 -4,407 4,569 4,568 -3,593 -3,555 3,601 3,552
33 -4,403 -4,412 4,342 4,366 -4,292 -4,489 4,568 4,640 -3,611 -3,660 3,616 3,624
34 -4,639 -4,682 4,500 4,522 -4,435 -4,447 4,428 4,531 -3,628 -3,602 3,628 3,560
35 -4,778 -4,778 4,611 4,693 -4,454 -4,512 4,407 4,384 -3,646 -3,664 3,640 3,612
36 -4,865 -4,860 4,625 4,613 -4,344 -4,473 4,348 4,375 -3,664 -3,675 3,650 3,602
37 -4,940 -4,987 4,662 4,684 -4,535 -4,454 4,429 4,388 -3,714 -3,745 3,658 3,659
38 -4,953 -4,976 4,802 4,789 -4,830 -4,757 4,647 4,491 -3,772 -3,708 3,665 3,668
39 -5,031 -5,073 5,033 4,967 -4,801 -4,865 4,641 4,639 -3,832 -3,757 3,686 3,709
40 -5,176 -5,165 5,103 5,063 -5,026 -4,875 4,662 4,553 -3,888 -3,809 3,739 3,760
41 -5,207 -5,185 5,073 5,058 -4,967 -4,984 4,684 4,629 -3,876 -3,854 3,844 3,767
42 -5,123 -5,111 5,045 5,080 -5,048 -4,985 4,918 4,819 -3,889 -3,851 3,873 3,794
43 -5,157 -5,165 5,070 5,039 -5,106 -5,114 5,121 4,983 -3,838 -3,895 3,815 3,822
44 -5,306 -5,265 5,178 5,146 -5,334 -5,298 5,046 5,090 -3,800 -3,810 3,767 3,734
45 -5,622 -5,598 5,396 5,445 -5,169 -5,250 5,049 5,049 -3,747 -3,856 3,764 3,697
46 -6,053 -6,006 5,757 5,826 -5,156 -5,149 4,982 5,095 -3,861 -3,805 3,806 3,752
47 -6,292 -6,248 6,068 6,050 -5,222 -5,229 5,105 5,053 -3,863 -3,894 3,799 3,794
48 -6,297 -6,221 6,236 6,235 -5,421 -5,347 5,195 5,183 -3,859 -3,871 3,841 3,783
49 -6,379 -6,428 6,188 6,144 -5,804 -5,639 5,551 5,402 -3,924 -3,889 3,881 3,822
50 -6,405 -6,351 6,113 6,084 -6,251 -6,008 5,912 5,774 -4,055 -3,961 4,029 3,962
51 -6,341 -6,379 6,113 6,093 -6,269 -6,309 6,158 6,004 -4,043 -4,001 4,040 4,015
52 -6,232 -6,253 6,046 6,018 -6,254 -6,266 6,237 6,153 -4,201 -4,183 4,140 4,125
53 -6,202 -6,259 6,066 6,040 -6,437 -6,339 6,045 6,124 -4,201 -4,150 4,246 4,180
54 -6,265 -6,265 6,138 6,131 -6,318 -6,330 6,071 5,991 -4,388 -4,294 4,369 4,305
55 -6,083 -6,077 6,038 6,120 -6,341 -6,292 6,023 6,018 -4,492 -4,471 4,484 4,452
56 -6,013 -6,076 5,933 5,948 -6,116 -6,142 5,928 5,940 -4,594 -4,496 4,519 4,544
57 -5,954 -5,864 5,897 5,954 -6,269 -6,195 6,055 6,005 -4,655 -4,659 4,574 4,514
58 -5,798 -5,768 5,727 5,748 -6,213 -6,258 6,041 5,968 -4,716 -4,732 4,554 4,595
59 -5,677 -5,676 5,508 5,538 -5,883 -6,008 5,850 5,979 -4,777 -4,828 4,657 4,673
60 -5,469 -5,506 5,352 5,433 -6,048 -6,025 5,841 5,851 -4,795 -4,790 4,663 4,652
61 -5,378 -5,319 5,340 5,351 -5,736 -5,821 5,741 5,735 -4,627 -4,755 4,544 4,683
62 -5,379 -5,423 5,391 5,417 -5,693 -5,693 5,442 5,631 -4,511 -4,667 4,480 4,594
63 -5,346 -5,363 5,356 5,384 -5,454 -5,590 5,263 5,329 -4,472 -4,553 4,518 4,527
64 -5,295 -5,260 5,264 5,188 -5,256 -5,316 5,084 5,147 -4,572 -4,577 4,476 4,530
65 -4,839 -4,891 4,791 4,741 -5,224 -5,237 5,157 5,210 -4,581 -4,612 4,496 4,600
66 -4,210 -4,182 4,177 4,179 -5,209 -5,253 5,102 5,225 -4,596 -4,648 4,505 4,596
67 -3,999 -3,989 3,880 3,928 -5,139 -5,146 5,046 5,071 -4,629 -4,612 4,568 4,588
68 -3,825 -3,863 3,747 3,721 -5,097 -5,116 4,916 4,949 -4,505 -4,622 4,524 4,651
69 -3,600 -3,624 3,558 3,570 -4,228 -4,672 4,149 4,476 -4,568 -4,575 4,409 4,512
70 -3,496 -3,495 3,316 3,311 -3,858 -4,046 3,734 3,955 -4,522 -4,565 4,335 4,315
71 -3,309 -3,350 3,067 3,095 -3,815 -3,854 3,549 3,652 -4,379 -4,485 4,222 4,270
72 -3,117 -3,144 2,853 2,820 -3,488 -3,620 3,434 3,452 -4,437 -4,393 4,208 4,216
73 -2,915 -2,885 2,698 2,678 -3,306 -3,378 3,133 3,265 -4,580 -4,584 4,289 4,220
74 -2,704 -2,694 2,478 2,492 -3,224 -3,301 2,911 3,012 -4,494 -4,548 4,226 4,261
75 -2,628 -2,607 2,297 2,311 -2,908 -3,083 2,616 2,746 -4,580 -4,485 4,166 4,141
76 -2,584 -2,582 2,121 2,100 -2,812 -2,870 2,466 2,480 -4,452 -4,495 4,078 4,105
77 -2,490 -2,480 1,943 1,941 -2,495 -2,660 2,272 2,330 -4,425 -4,464 4,142 4,144
78 -2,388 -2,401 1,873 1,854 -2,395 -2,429 2,011 2,099 -4,395 -4,422 4,179 4,153
79 -2,367 -2,399 1,847 1,832 -2,328 -2,330 1,896 1,953 -4,487 -4,460 4,048 4,169
80 -2,246 -2,265 1,706 1,703 -2,277 -2,278 1,662 1,749 -4,265 -4,371 3,911 4,034
81 -2,073 -2,103 1,510 1,479 -2,109 -2,151 1,547 1,571 -4,133 -4,163 3,721 3,899
82 -1,966 -1,997 1,356 1,345 -2,045 -2,042 1,468 1,450 -4,043 -4,136 3,632 3,677
83 -1,919 -1,934 1,218 1,249 -2,019 -2,038 1,425 1,431 -4,028 -4,029 3,520 3,646
84 -1,828 -1,853 1,090 1,096 -1,778 -1,837 1,200 1,257 -4,124 -4,074 3,548 3,588
85 -1,678 -1,657 982 968 -1,647 -1,679 1,060 1,089 -4,235 -4,158 3,540 3,603
86 -1,557 -1,588 894 896 -1,511 -1,580 892 949 -4,042 -4,151 3,413 3,512
87 -1,410 -1,448 774 769 -1,461 -1,465 800 820 -3,797 -3,921 3,161 3,275
88 -1,305 -1,317 650 637 -1,254 -1,324 648 708 -3,614 -3,702 2,764 2,954
89 -1,197 -1,181 564 560 -1,150 -1,147 582 568 -3,269 -3,389 2,456 2,555
90 -1,021 -1,007 466 464 -1,000 -1,028 467 491 -2,949 -3,085 2,101 2,267
91 -856 -835 355 345 -842 -883 372 401 -2,521 -2,657 1,743 1,892
92 -710 -710 286 283 -749 -735 283 300 -2,228 -2,308 1,466 1,543
93 -568 -539 221 217 -610 -654 254 249 -1,867 -1,976 1,179 1,284
94 -446 -439 153 151 -472 -496 164 177 -1,468 -1,588 901 998
95 -321 -315 101 102 -373 -366 128 114 -1,212 -1,289 692 752
96 -220 -208 79 83 -270 -288 85 85 -906 -1,002 511 549
97 -168 -166 53 56 -199 -189 47 59 -685 -751 355 375
98 -132 -132 30 33 -130 -135 23 36 -488 -535 245 250
99 -92 -91 17 19 -72 -89 17 15 -340 -372 165 171
100+ -153 -154 29 23 -144 -146 27 33 -627 -714 291 263

Chart 3 Population pyramid, 2011, 2015 and 2050, DYSEM demographic estimates and demographic projections, Saskatchewan

Data table for Chart 3
Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 2011, 2015, 2050, DEMOG: Saskatchewan (female), DYSEM: Saskatchewan (female), DEMOG: Saskatchewan (male) and DYSEM: Saskatchewan (male), calculated using population units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age 2011 2015 2050
DEMOG: Saskatchewan (female) DYSEM: Saskatchewan (female) DEMOG: Saskatchewan (male) DYSEM: Saskatchewan (male) DEMOG: Saskatchewan (female) DYSEM: Saskatchewan (female) DEMOG: Saskatchewan (male) DYSEM: Saskatchewan (male) DEMOG: Saskatchewan (female) DYSEM: Saskatchewan (female) DEMOG: Saskatchewan (male) DYSEM: Saskatchewan (male)
population
0 -3,476 -3,498 3,700 3,676 -7,587 -7,663 7,943 8,011 -8,280 -8,309 8,668 8,676
1 -6,921 -6,916 7,331 7,251 -7,573 -7,548 7,920 8,084 -8,329 -8,351 8,711 8,777
2 -6,849 -6,839 7,285 7,338 -7,379 -7,583 7,695 7,947 -8,384 -8,422 8,758 8,788
3 -6,839 -6,835 7,237 7,285 -7,278 -7,654 7,553 8,032 -8,431 -8,460 8,799 8,890
4 -6,717 -6,712 7,016 6,992 -7,272 -7,740 7,654 8,144 -8,469 -8,540 8,829 8,864
5 -6,443 -6,472 6,770 6,745 -7,257 -7,163 7,563 7,591 -8,500 -8,562 8,855 8,953
6 -6,235 -6,186 6,587 6,569 -7,186 -7,128 7,644 7,451 -8,523 -8,569 8,872 8,946
7 -6,220 -6,241 6,577 6,619 -7,269 -7,162 7,521 7,614 -8,542 -8,662 8,886 8,952
8 -6,211 -6,222 6,533 6,475 -6,954 -7,080 7,208 7,331 -8,553 -8,628 8,896 9,023
9 -6,099 -6,164 6,479 6,488 -6,703 -6,794 7,028 7,081 -8,562 -8,616 8,908 8,968
10 -6,099 -6,082 6,563 6,506 -6,555 -6,556 6,858 6,882 -8,566 -8,589 8,914 9,020
11 -6,322 -6,238 6,663 6,582 -6,704 -6,632 7,043 6,935 -8,575 -8,559 8,920 9,009
12 -6,457 -6,438 6,716 6,730 -6,494 -6,578 6,787 6,930 -8,576 -8,675 8,924 9,040
13 -6,484 -6,540 6,708 6,682 -6,399 -6,465 6,910 6,806 -8,564 -8,566 8,926 8,980
14 -6,594 -6,593 6,927 6,876 -6,443 -6,352 6,899 6,895 -8,528 -8,607 8,912 8,912
15 -6,694 -6,637 7,215 7,229 -6,737 -6,453 7,065 6,920 -8,471 -8,559 8,883 8,937
16 -6,897 -6,988 7,441 7,443 -6,562 -6,508 6,955 6,916 -8,378 -8,441 8,821 8,826
17 -7,007 -7,025 7,635 7,606 -6,691 -6,578 6,937 6,884 -8,269 -8,253 8,750 8,757
18 -7,008 -6,982 7,755 7,769 -6,694 -6,563 7,288 6,974 -8,159 -8,197 8,667 8,752
19 -7,072 -7,032 7,786 7,818 -6,764 -6,626 7,427 7,166 -8,049 -8,109 8,570 8,637
20 -7,300 -7,356 7,829 7,886 -6,994 -6,835 7,611 7,273 -7,946 -7,899 8,460 8,482
21 -7,640 -7,639 7,935 7,951 -6,904 -6,815 7,662 7,338 -7,817 -7,828 8,309 8,321
22 -7,750 -7,825 7,815 7,772 -6,909 -6,692 7,727 7,439 -7,695 -7,690 8,152 8,187
23 -7,567 -7,578 7,628 7,631 -6,975 -6,679 7,666 7,247 -7,596 -7,497 8,006 7,920
24 -7,497 -7,492 7,530 7,569 -7,354 -6,923 7,827 7,348 -7,544 -7,448 7,891 7,878
25 -7,577 -7,613 7,620 7,637 -7,728 -7,278 7,961 7,406 -7,551 -7,502 7,822 7,796
26 -7,589 -7,559 7,757 7,774 -7,750 -7,465 7,775 7,350 -7,601 -7,649 7,782 7,732
27 -7,596 -7,514 7,690 7,708 -7,626 -7,456 7,802 7,195 -7,695 -7,606 7,778 7,678
28 -7,610 -7,755 7,497 7,450 -7,868 -7,546 7,793 7,241 -7,808 -7,698 7,803 7,770
29 -7,407 -7,500 7,298 7,209 -8,017 -7,577 8,143 7,501 -7,894 -7,884 7,824 7,877
30 -7,019 -6,991 7,336 7,312 -8,090 -7,828 8,131 7,619 -7,969 -8,003 7,858 7,820
31 -6,709 -6,645 7,220 7,236 -8,140 -7,691 8,089 7,664 -8,035 -7,965 7,903 7,838
32 -6,513 -6,524 6,992 6,969 -8,108 -7,891 7,823 7,591 -8,090 -8,054 7,950 7,996
33 -6,391 -6,326 6,935 6,965 -7,697 -7,697 7,695 7,467 -8,136 -8,093 7,990 7,997
34 -6,379 -6,399 6,790 6,787 -7,286 -7,333 7,877 7,529 -8,172 -8,159 8,014 8,070
35 -6,396 -6,434 6,628 6,685 -6,992 -7,069 7,418 7,410 -8,186 -8,238 8,026 7,967
36 -6,275 -6,257 6,495 6,511 -6,887 -6,840 7,355 7,140 -8,187 -8,161 8,029 8,058
37 -6,090 -6,050 6,366 6,336 -6,732 -6,627 7,289 7,168 -8,057 -8,135 7,923 8,016
38 -6,078 -6,072 6,233 6,224 -6,819 -6,683 7,035 7,026 -8,015 -8,186 7,895 8,178
39 -6,117 -6,013 6,188 6,176 -6,713 -6,592 6,935 6,868 -8,019 -8,286 7,967 8,200
40 -6,088 -6,079 6,274 6,288 -6,547 -6,490 6,760 6,746 -8,044 -7,959 8,014 8,069
41 -6,132 -6,165 6,267 6,214 -6,344 -6,268 6,674 6,618 -8,033 -8,013 8,083 7,967
42 -6,190 -6,192 6,252 6,307 -6,489 -6,253 6,504 6,537 -8,062 -8,046 8,050 8,133
43 -6,145 -6,172 6,289 6,302 -6,392 -6,318 6,576 6,448 -7,871 -7,920 7,900 7,855
44 -6,126 -6,146 6,348 6,319 -6,441 -6,259 6,683 6,545 -7,701 -7,739 7,762 7,834
45 -6,404 -6,475 6,635 6,575 -6,448 -6,317 6,564 6,573 -7,584 -7,650 7,658 7,610
46 -6,962 -6,969 7,189 7,156 -6,464 -6,354 6,622 6,417 -7,601 -7,570 7,718 7,722
47 -7,530 -7,612 7,716 7,742 -6,272 -6,269 6,533 6,478 -7,469 -7,502 7,581 7,714
48 -7,838 -7,855 8,095 8,137 -6,341 -6,225 6,619 6,502 -7,386 -7,512 7,598 7,596
49 -7,886 -7,914 8,202 8,160 -6,723 -6,467 7,020 6,666 -7,400 -7,341 7,611 7,640
50 -7,795 -7,845 8,216 8,172 -7,391 -6,991 7,619 7,224 -7,535 -7,414 7,690 7,691
51 -7,799 -7,721 8,240 8,237 -7,799 -7,515 7,938 7,766 -7,484 -7,486 7,652 7,713
52 -7,848 -7,890 8,191 8,180 -7,930 -7,842 8,288 8,054 -7,568 -7,483 7,661 7,702
53 -7,728 -7,705 8,122 8,120 -7,836 -7,851 8,112 8,060 -7,608 -7,608 7,833 7,710
54 -7,590 -7,611 7,946 7,959 -7,701 -7,797 8,285 8,095 -7,754 -7,593 7,960 7,904
55 -7,554 -7,613 7,777 7,738 -7,791 -7,730 8,166 8,281 -7,858 -7,792 8,072 7,997
56 -7,518 -7,578 7,726 7,682 -7,742 -7,789 8,153 8,002 -7,830 -7,858 8,110 7,980
57 -7,304 -7,337 7,605 7,630 -7,537 -7,621 7,960 7,911 -7,852 -7,816 8,134 8,131
58 -6,864 -6,832 7,161 7,151 -7,446 -7,486 7,727 7,792 -7,901 -7,814 8,127 7,968
59 -6,424 -6,383 6,683 6,719 -7,424 -7,396 7,510 7,566 -8,058 -7,819 8,217 8,084
60 -6,151 -6,212 6,309 6,278 -7,352 -7,371 7,518 7,554 -8,231 -8,108 8,287 8,105
61 -5,922 -5,881 6,086 6,173 -7,004 -7,171 7,189 7,317 -8,138 -8,124 8,126 8,041
62 -5,728 -5,806 5,881 5,818 -6,457 -6,669 6,623 6,878 -7,980 -7,972 8,042 7,898
63 -5,644 -5,684 5,618 5,612 -6,089 -6,211 6,260 6,468 -8,042 -7,981 8,042 7,751
64 -5,605 -5,594 5,468 5,432 -5,885 -5,933 5,884 6,009 -8,084 -7,865 8,227 7,884
65 -5,140 -5,168 5,068 5,060 -5,611 -5,789 5,804 5,847 -8,049 -7,961 8,173 7,944
66 -4,501 -4,525 4,524 4,462 -5,451 -5,498 5,456 5,495 -7,979 -7,782 8,042 7,896
67 -4,237 -4,262 4,214 4,240 -5,381 -5,447 5,226 5,295 -7,845 -7,716 7,788 7,756
68 -4,166 -4,193 3,991 3,954 -5,332 -5,318 5,058 5,103 -7,490 -7,552 7,561 7,554
69 -4,053 -4,061 3,712 3,628 -4,446 -4,894 4,374 4,685 -7,125 -7,247 7,537 7,426
70 -3,904 -3,889 3,554 3,588 -4,063 -4,292 3,954 4,165 -6,801 -6,910 7,107 7,232
71 -3,742 -3,797 3,442 3,419 -3,905 -3,977 3,723 3,886 -6,577 -6,608 6,889 6,802
72 -3,546 -3,568 3,250 3,267 -3,898 -3,962 3,493 3,599 -6,329 -6,337 6,686 6,672
73 -3,499 -3,532 3,081 3,101 -3,657 -3,745 3,201 3,375 -6,252 -6,211 6,392 6,467
74 -3,422 -3,413 2,917 2,889 -3,569 -3,566 3,192 3,204 -6,075 -6,095 6,187 6,163
75 -3,282 -3,257 2,862 2,895 -3,315 -3,432 2,964 3,085 -5,831 -5,920 5,923 5,919
76 -3,186 -3,192 2,778 2,758 -3,188 -3,226 2,801 2,849 -5,562 -5,599 5,682 5,758
77 -3,167 -3,198 2,636 2,688 -3,197 -3,145 2,608 2,687 -5,515 -5,397 5,433 5,531
78 -3,137 -3,127 2,530 2,494 -3,003 -3,010 2,458 2,465 -5,342 -5,416 5,325 5,341
79 -3,078 -3,127 2,439 2,456 -2,891 -2,858 2,452 2,399 -5,285 -5,234 5,263 5,257
80 -3,037 -3,010 2,348 2,378 -2,766 -2,809 2,247 2,248 -5,125 -5,110 4,984 5,121
81 -2,954 -2,939 2,213 2,216 -2,779 -2,701 2,125 2,134 -4,971 -4,959 4,797 4,746
82 -2,839 -2,859 2,078 2,073 -2,641 -2,674 1,974 1,986 -4,682 -4,767 4,518 4,655
83 -2,706 -2,686 1,961 1,973 -2,586 -2,529 1,854 1,849 -4,534 -4,564 4,327 4,397
84 -2,557 -2,537 1,803 1,826 -2,472 -2,420 1,695 1,764 -4,572 -4,465 4,311 4,247
85 -2,393 -2,415 1,570 1,565 -2,352 -2,319 1,527 1,587 -4,734 -4,629 4,345 4,253
86 -2,293 -2,280 1,365 1,360 -2,162 -2,119 1,378 1,441 -4,698 -4,627 4,190 4,287
87 -2,124 -2,109 1,241 1,254 -2,001 -1,965 1,248 1,295 -4,468 -4,518 3,975 4,066
88 -1,899 -1,858 1,084 1,076 -1,800 -1,793 1,079 1,142 -4,095 -4,156 3,513 3,669
89 -1,722 -1,687 914 920 -1,612 -1,631 879 938 -3,702 -3,786 3,171 3,241
90 -1,518 -1,519 758 748 -1,505 -1,448 748 732 -3,362 -3,403 2,704 2,921
91 -1,330 -1,307 587 603 -1,255 -1,284 641 643 -2,958 -2,982 2,275 2,341
92 -1,118 -1,141 454 458 -1,079 -1,051 488 499 -2,518 -2,552 1,848 1,935
93 -906 -927 355 358 -895 -915 394 393 -2,119 -2,110 1,457 1,573
94 -745 -749 269 263 -722 -731 291 293 -1,758 -1,766 1,126 1,174
95 -598 -591 203 184 -601 -565 199 198 -1,414 -1,436 870 905
96 -467 -457 162 156 -425 -436 133 137 -1,070 -1,114 630 657
97 -333 -326 128 132 -303 -315 95 81 -766 -794 430 426
98 -245 -247 92 84 -213 -234 57 60 -543 -563 292 286
99 -185 -176 61 60 -153 -154 34 40 -383 -384 192 191
100+ -290 -305 74 72 -286 -268 71 63 -685 -687 317 280

Chart 4 Population pyramid, 2011, 2015 and 2050, DYSEM demographic estimates and demographic projections, Nunavut

Data table for Chart 4
Data table for Chart 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 4. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 2011, 2015, 2050, DEMOG: Nunavut (female), DYSEM: Nunavut (female), DEMOG: Nunavut (male) and DYSEM: Nunavut (male), calculated using population units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age 2011 2015 2050
DEMOG: Nunavut (female) DYSEM: Nunavut (female) DEMOG: Nunavut (male) DYSEM: Nunavut (male) DEMOG: Nunavut (female) DYSEM: Nunavut (female) DEMOG: Nunavut (male) DYSEM: Nunavut (male) DEMOG: Nunavut (female) DYSEM: Nunavut (female) DEMOG: Nunavut (male) DYSEM: Nunavut (male)
population
0 -195 -202 201 189 -437 -454 456 463 -605 -628 632 648
1 -426 -415 421 422 -424 -438 437 450 -590 -604 609 623
2 -438 -430 428 419 -388 -425 409 436 -577 -588 594 603
3 -414 -427 431 448 -375 -420 421 439 -567 -580 586 590
4 -399 -392 430 441 -363 -421 408 425 -560 -568 581 589
5 -360 -379 377 369 -443 -410 441 419 -553 -574 577 582
6 -341 -351 357 353 -405 -405 410 427 -543 -565 571 586
7 -338 -339 370 357 -406 -401 433 431 -535 -552 566 563
8 -337 -345 363 362 -382 -389 399 447 -527 -535 561 566
9 -319 -320 340 318 -337 -365 326 374 -519 -527 554 560
10 -305 -299 337 338 -344 -340 356 351 -511 -515 545 552
11 -322 -319 341 336 -328 -339 344 358 -502 -509 532 542
12 -314 -324 320 314 -336 -331 330 361 -490 -506 516 527
13 -293 -309 323 323 -292 -307 296 307 -481 -491 500 505
14 -297 -282 327 322 -305 -288 331 313 -473 -481 489 485
15 -314 -300 336 331 -319 -309 313 318 -466 -473 479 487
16 -329 -352 350 356 -291 -293 301 294 -461 -466 471 477
17 -343 -355 344 339 -285 -299 330 309 -455 -470 465 473
18 -328 -311 348 331 -299 -270 313 327 -447 -454 457 458
19 -316 -315 342 336 -317 -313 346 325 -441 -451 452 453
20 -330 -337 345 332 -332 -340 339 349 -438 -443 446 452
21 -316 -321 360 354 -356 -357 337 355 -437 -437 442 448
22 -311 -304 344 331 -310 -336 347 365 -436 -432 437 435
23 -307 -300 324 315 -332 -331 325 332 -434 -446 433 436
24 -291 -295 308 308 -336 -333 351 350 -431 -437 429 436
25 -303 -301 297 297 -303 -330 351 354 -428 -429 422 427
26 -312 -317 306 300 -326 -314 328 339 -428 -428 425 425
27 -314 -300 299 301 -304 -310 328 339 -426 -423 426 420
28 -299 -294 280 285 -306 -313 311 330 -425 -427 424 423
29 -265 -271 267 265 -335 -324 305 310 -417 -417 419 421
30 -271 -271 282 283 -322 -330 322 316 -410 -420 413 414
31 -303 -299 291 276 -331 -291 288 302 -399 -396 402 412
32 -284 -275 270 276 -277 -290 281 285 -384 -391 392 390
33 -267 -255 268 261 -254 -253 261 266 -369 -371 382 380
34 -270 -261 265 253 -276 -261 299 262 -357 -363 371 379
35 -237 -233 251 269 -304 -263 270 252 -346 -346 359 358
36 -212 -208 234 224 -244 -252 254 241 -333 -330 343 341
37 -198 -211 227 238 -272 -232 254 242 -315 -325 322 325
38 -192 -194 219 203 -240 -246 241 234 -304 -316 311 311
39 -190 -188 210 211 -197 -219 224 209 -295 -312 296 299
40 -202 -198 241 221 -177 -198 213 195 -311 -302 297 290
41 -212 -210 254 248 -163 -197 215 201 -295 -289 282 283
42 -206 -209 217 213 -175 -185 198 184 -288 -278 278 280
43 -207 -223 225 212 -186 -172 201 200 -272 -273 263 263
44 -200 -206 235 240 -225 -172 261 210 -253 -260 241 251
45 -197 -189 224 236 -218 -195 228 217 -248 -240 240 238
46 -195 -207 230 242 -216 -199 196 215 -245 -245 238 238
47 -178 -175 233 244 -216 -209 245 214 -243 -242 233 234
48 -175 -169 216 208 -188 -196 218 235 -230 -233 227 232
49 -182 -183 189 197 -192 -187 228 225 -231 -223 236 233
50 -176 -187 187 181 -165 -193 234 231 -235 -231 237 231
51 -153 -157 202 191 -150 -163 238 238 -223 -229 234 232
52 -151 -169 194 189 -158 -166 206 217 -217 -216 240 231
53 -153 -145 168 168 -176 -183 187 193 -218 -218 239 232
54 -133 -134 156 160 -165 -168 199 169 -223 -220 245 243
55 -117 -107 146 152 -148 -143 213 188 -223 -228 242 245
56 -108 -110 146 136 -165 -159 179 175 -222 -219 232 232
57 -112 -117 148 145 -146 -145 152 143 -208 -212 219 218
58 -116 -115 119 119 -120 -126 145 129 -205 -208 202 198
59 -109 -119 98 99 -106 -110 131 113 -201 -191 197 189
60 -103 -97 110 123 -92 -102 144 116 -190 -193 187 183
61 -96 -88 112 108 -104 -103 136 118 -183 -187 173 177
62 -92 -96 111 103 -96 -98 93 101 -168 -166 166 165
63 -75 -72 105 103 -90 -100 92 84 -159 -157 160 160
64 -69 -69 88 82 -89 -92 105 103 -163 -155 156 152
65 -71 -68 74 71 -86 -78 85 105 -157 -155 156 151
66 -54 -56 62 55 -84 -80 91 99 -154 -146 143 146
67 -44 -44 56 56 -57 -55 69 83 -138 -135 134 134
68 -41 -36 47 45 -68 -62 62 71 -127 -125 122 127
69 -33 -28 46 49 -60 -62 49 53 -130 -127 125 121
70 -29 -28 46 46 -41 -46 52 51 -135 -122 117 116
71 -35 -35 35 36 -39 -40 46 47 -119 -118 111 108
72 -34 -31 30 29 -33 -36 38 41 -121 -114 108 101
73 -27 -27 31 29 -22 -28 41 45 -111 -109 105 103
74 -22 -24 25 25 -25 -29 37 41 -97 -103 101 95
75 -20 -20 26 25 -33 -33 20 32 -89 -93 95 89
76 -22 -20 25 26 -23 -27 25 28 -83 -91 92 89
77 -17 -21 17 17 -20 -33 23 24 -84 -88 87 84
78 -16 -13 19 17 -12 -15 16 19 -72 -70 80 79
79 -17 -20 19 20 -14 -15 22 23 -79 -67 90 83
80 -16 -18 12 12 -16 -15 13 20 -73 -65 78 80
81 -16 -18 7 8 -8 -9 10 13 -66 -59 64 68
82 -13 -14 4 4 -11 -12 16 12 -61 -55 65 59
83 -7 -6 6 6 -9 -17 8 14 -51 -54 54 56
84 -4 -4 5 4 -9 -12 6 8 -48 -47 50 49
85 -5 -2 3 3 -10 -12 2 5 -40 -42 44 42
86 -5 -4 3 4 -5 -11 3 4 -34 -35 39 36
87 -3 -5 2 1 -2 -3 4 4 -31 -31 30 32
88 -2 -1 2 2 -2 -3 2 3 -28 -28 23 22
89 -2 -2 3 4 -3 -2 1 3 -22 -22 20 18
90 -2 -2 3 3 -2 -2 1 1 -16 -16 16 14
91 -1 -1 2 3 -1 -2 1 1 -14 -13 11 11
92 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -9 -9 7 7
93 -2 -2 2 2 0 -1 1 1 -6 -6 5 5
94 -1 -1 1 1 0 -1 1 1 -4 -3 3 4
95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 2 2
96 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 -2 1 1
97 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 1 0
98 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 -1 0 0
99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
100+ 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 DYSEM education: Technical details and validation

4.1 Modelling of educational attainment

DYSEM models four levels of educational attainment: less than high school graduation, high school graduation, graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor’s degree, and graduation with a bachelor’s degree or above. The goal is to simulate realistic timing for educational attainment; no attempt is made to model school attendance. This model has been adapted from earlier work for the Demosim microsimulation model (Spielauer 2014).

To model educational attainment, the following baseline models were first estimated using the General Social Survey 15 (2001):

The baseline models were estimated using age, sex, birth cohort, immigrant status, and duration since previous graduation as explanatory variables. Province‑specific calibration factors were applied to match cross‑sectional outcomes of the 2011 NHS by province of birth (immigrants are assigned “outside Canada” for province of birth).

The estimated cohort trends were extrapolated into the future for some time, then levelled off to prevent unreasonably high bachelor’s degree graduation rates, similar to the assumptions in the Demosim model (Spielauer 2014). For this purpose, the average of the 1985‑to‑1989 birth cohorts was used for high school graduation for those born after 1989, and the average of the 1981‑to‑1985 birth cohorts was used for postsecondary and bachelor’s degree graduation for those born after 1985. Inter‑provincial differences were assumed to remain constant.

4.2 Validation of education modelling

The methodology used in DYSEM produces educational attainment outcomes that closely match those from the 2011 NHS, including provincial variation. To demonstrate, Chart 5 compares the national estimates of educational attainment for women in 2011 by year of birth from DYSEM and the NHS. Charts 6 and 7 compare estimates for women living in Ontario and Manitoba, respectively.

Chart 5 Educational attainment in 2011 by birth year, all women residing in Canada

Data table for Chart 5
Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 5 NHS: Less than high school graduation, NHS: High school graduation, NHS: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree, NHS: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, DYSEM: Less than high school graduation, DYSEM: High school graduation, DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree and DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
NHS: Less than high school graduation NHS: High school graduation NHS: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree NHS: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above DYSEM: Less than high school graduation DYSEM: High school graduation DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above
percent
1915 53.6 25.3 16.3 4.8 53.6 24.6 16.0 5.7
1916 56.5 24.4 14.4 4.7 56.7 23.7 14.4 5.2
1917 59.0 22.9 13.4 4.6 59.4 22.1 13.3 5.2
1918 55.0 27.8 13.5 3.7 55.4 26.2 13.8 4.7
1919 55.1 26.3 14.3 4.3 54.7 26.2 14.2 4.9
1920 56.2 24.8 14.9 4.1 56.3 24.2 15.1 4.4
1921 55.4 24.8 15.3 4.5 55.7 23.8 15.3 5.1
1922 55.5 25.2 14.7 4.6 55.4 24.6 14.8 5.2
1923 52.8 27.3 15.2 4.8 52.8 26.5 15.3 5.4
1924 52.9 26.3 16.0 4.8 53.0 25.9 15.9 5.2
1925 53.8 25.3 15.2 5.7 53.9 25.0 15.1 6.0
1926 52.0 25.1 17.0 6.0 52.4 24.6 16.9 6.1
1927 51.8 25.7 16.3 6.1 51.9 25.2 16.5 6.4
1928 51.4 24.9 17.3 6.4 51.2 24.6 17.7 6.5
1929 51.1 25.0 18.0 5.9 51.4 24.5 18.0 6.1
1930 49.1 25.6 18.9 6.4 49.4 25.2 18.8 6.7
1931 49.0 25.1 19.6 6.3 49.3 24.3 19.7 6.6
1932 48.1 25.4 19.5 7.0 48.2 24.9 19.7 7.2
1933 48.3 25.4 19.4 6.9 48.5 25.0 19.5 7.0
1934 46.0 25.7 20.8 7.4 46.1 25.0 21.1 7.8
1935 45.0 26.6 20.8 7.6 45.1 25.7 21.2 8.0
1936 42.9 26.0 22.5 8.6 42.7 25.5 23.1 8.7
1937 41.3 26.6 23.1 9.0 41.3 25.9 23.4 9.4
1938 41.6 26.3 22.8 9.3 41.7 25.5 23.2 9.6
1939 39.7 26.3 23.5 10.5 39.7 25.7 23.8 10.9
1940 38.7 26.0 24.8 10.5 38.8 25.4 24.9 11.0
1941 35.8 26.1 26.1 12.0 35.7 25.2 26.7 12.5
1942 33.8 26.0 27.2 13.0 33.8 25.2 27.3 13.8
1943 31.5 25.9 28.1 14.4 31.6 25.0 28.7 14.8
1944 30.4 26.5 28.4 14.8 30.4 25.3 28.8 15.5
1945 29.8 26.9 28.5 14.9 30.0 25.8 28.8 15.4
1946 26.5 28.0 29.4 16.2 26.6 27.0 29.4 16.9
1947 24.5 28.6 30.0 16.9 24.5 27.7 30.0 17.8
1948 22.9 29.0 30.5 17.6 22.7 28.4 30.7 18.2
1949 21.2 28.6 31.8 18.4 21.3 28.1 31.6 18.9
1950 20.3 29.0 31.5 19.3 20.4 28.4 31.6 19.6
1951 18.6 29.7 32.8 18.9 18.8 28.9 33.1 19.2
1952 17.3 29.4 33.8 19.6 17.2 29.4 33.6 19.8
1953 16.8 30.0 33.8 19.5 16.9 29.2 34.3 19.7
1954 17.5 29.6 33.7 19.3 17.6 29.5 33.4 19.5
1955 16.8 29.8 33.8 19.6 16.8 29.5 33.8 19.9
1956 16.6 29.3 33.8 20.2 16.8 29.1 33.7 20.4
1957 16.0 29.3 34.9 19.8 16.0 29.1 34.8 20.1
1958 15.9 28.6 35.3 20.2 16.0 28.5 35.3 20.2
1959 15.1 27.9 37.0 20.0 15.0 27.9 36.5 20.6
1960 15.1 27.8 36.7 20.4 15.1 27.4 36.7 20.8
1961 13.9 27.0 37.8 21.2 13.9 26.8 37.6 21.6
1962 13.8 26.0 37.9 22.3 13.7 26.0 37.4 22.9
1963 13.3 24.9 38.7 23.2 13.1 24.5 38.6 23.8
1964 12.8 23.7 39.2 24.3 12.7 23.5 38.7 25.1
1965 11.7 23.1 39.6 25.5 11.7 23.0 39.0 26.3
1966 11.9 22.3 39.2 26.6 11.8 22.2 38.9 27.1
1967 10.8 21.4 38.8 29.0 10.9 21.1 38.5 29.6
1968 11.2 20.1 38.9 29.8 11.2 19.7 38.0 31.1
1969 10.4 20.1 38.1 31.4 10.4 19.9 37.2 32.5
1970 10.5 19.2 37.9 32.4 10.4 19.2 37.1 33.3
1971 10.1 18.3 37.9 33.7 10.0 18.3 37.1 34.6
1972 10.1 18.1 37.4 34.4 9.9 17.8 36.3 35.9
1973 9.5 17.6 37.8 35.1 9.3 17.1 36.8 36.8
1974 9.1 17.7 37.9 35.3 9.1 17.6 36.6 36.7
1975 9.2 17.7 37.3 35.8 9.1 17.8 35.7 37.3
1976 9.0 17.7 37.2 36.1 8.8 17.2 35.8 38.2
1977 8.8 17.6 37.0 36.5 8.7 17.1 35.7 38.5
1978 8.6 17.6 37.2 36.6 8.6 17.5 35.7 38.2
1979 8.7 18.2 36.3 36.8 8.7 18.1 34.7 38.5
1980 8.6 18.4 36.1 36.9 8.4 18.2 34.4 39.0
1981 8.5 18.0 35.7 37.7 8.4 17.7 34.1 39.7
1982 9.0 18.7 34.7 37.6 8.9 18.6 32.8 39.7
1983 9.2 18.9 34.7 37.2 9.0 18.3 33.0 39.7
1984 9.2 19.9 34.2 36.7 8.9 19.7 32.7 38.7
1985 9.6 20.7 33.9 35.8 9.0 21.0 32.2 37.8
1986 9.6 22.9 32.7 34.7 9.1 22.2 33.6 35.2
1987 9.6 25.6 33.4 31.5 8.8 26.3 33.8 31.1
1988 10.1 31.4 32.4 26.2 9.4 33.6 33.1 23.9
1989 10.6 42.0 32.5 14.9 9.9 44.7 30.6 14.9
1990 10.7 57.6 28.8 2.8 11.7 57.6 23.7 7.1

Chart 6 Educational attainment in 2011 by birth year, all women residing in Ontario

Data table for Chart 6
Data table for Chart 6
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 6 NHS: Less than high school graduation, NHS: High school graduation, NHS: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree, NHS: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, DYSEM: Less than high school graduation, DYSEM: High school graduation, DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree and DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
NHS: Less than high school graduation NHS: High school graduation NHS: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree NHS: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above DYSEM: Less than high school graduation DYSEM: High school graduation DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above
percent
1915 29.8 33.8 27.2 9.3 30.1 34.3 25.3 10.2
1916 42.3 31.5 19.2 6.9 41.5 31.9 19.4 7.3
1917 50.9 28.5 16.8 3.8 51.7 26.6 16.8 4.9
1918 43.1 33.4 17.3 6.1 43.5 31.9 18.2 6.3
1919 44.6 34.9 14.1 6.4 44.0 35.7 13.5 6.8
1920 48.0 32.0 15.0 5.0 47.6 31.6 15.5 5.4
1921 44.5 31.6 18.7 5.2 44.1 31.2 18.8 5.9
1922 45.6 31.2 18.6 4.6 45.0 31.4 18.9 4.7
1923 45.2 34.4 15.2 5.1 45.1 33.6 16.1 5.2
1924 45.4 32.3 16.0 6.3 46.0 32.1 15.7 6.2
1925 45.1 29.4 18.5 6.9 45.6 29.3 18.3 6.8
1926 42.5 31.0 19.5 7.0 43.4 30.2 19.1 7.3
1927 46.1 30.0 16.8 7.0 45.6 29.9 16.9 7.6
1928 45.1 28.6 18.8 7.5 44.3 28.7 19.1 7.9
1929 46.1 28.9 18.3 6.7 46.8 28.7 17.4 7.1
1930 42.9 28.0 21.1 8.0 44.0 27.1 20.3 8.5
1931 41.9 30.7 20.9 6.5 41.9 30.2 21.6 6.3
1932 43.8 28.4 19.8 8.1 44.1 28.1 19.8 7.9
1933 45.1 27.8 20.3 6.8 45.2 27.4 20.6 6.8
1934 41.7 28.8 21.6 7.9 41.8 28.4 21.7 8.0
1935 41.5 29.6 20.8 8.2 41.7 28.9 21.3 8.2
1936 40.0 28.6 22.9 8.5 40.4 28.3 22.9 8.4
1937 37.6 29.1 23.1 10.1 37.4 28.6 23.4 10.6
1938 38.5 27.8 23.6 10.1 38.8 27.6 23.5 10.1
1939 38.0 29.8 21.6 10.6 38.2 29.6 21.2 11.0
1940 37.0 28.3 23.5 11.2 37.1 28.1 22.9 11.8
1941 34.1 27.6 25.4 12.8 34.0 26.2 26.6 13.3
1942 32.1 28.8 25.9 13.2 32.0 27.8 26.3 14.0
1943 29.2 28.2 27.6 14.9 29.3 27.1 28.5 15.1
1944 28.7 28.5 27.0 15.8 28.9 27.8 27.5 15.8
1945 29.1 28.8 26.9 15.2 29.3 28.0 27.0 15.8
1946 24.6 30.9 28.1 16.4 25.1 30.1 27.4 17.3
1947 22.6 31.2 29.3 16.9 22.8 30.9 28.7 17.7
1948 19.1 32.6 29.4 18.9 18.8 32.6 29.3 19.3
1949 19.0 29.5 31.9 19.6 19.5 28.6 32.1 19.8
1950 17.5 30.9 30.6 21.0 17.6 30.1 31.0 21.3
1951 14.7 32.0 32.3 20.9 14.7 31.3 33.2 20.9
1952 13.5 32.0 32.4 22.1 13.5 32.3 32.2 22.0
1953 13.2 33.4 32.9 20.5 13.2 32.5 33.4 20.9
1954 14.6 32.2 33.1 20.1 14.5 32.1 33.1 20.2
1955 14.1 32.7 33.4 19.8 14.3 32.8 33.2 19.8
1956 13.6 32.0 33.6 20.8 13.5 32.6 33.1 20.8
1957 13.6 32.9 34.7 18.8 13.6 33.0 34.5 18.9
1958 13.4 32.0 35.0 19.5 13.8 32.4 34.7 19.1
1959 12.4 31.3 37.5 18.8 12.2 31.5 37.2 19.2
1960 13.1 31.7 37.0 18.3 13.1 31.0 37.2 18.7
1961 11.7 30.1 38.6 19.6 11.6 29.7 39.0 19.7
1962 11.6 29.0 38.4 21.0 11.5 28.9 38.7 21.0
1963 11.5 28.3 39.2 21.0 11.0 28.1 40.2 20.7
1964 11.1 26.0 40.1 22.7 11.3 25.6 40.5 22.6
1965 9.5 27.5 40.9 22.1 9.6 28.1 40.7 21.7
1966 9.8 25.9 40.6 23.7 9.7 26.4 40.5 23.5
1967 8.4 24.7 40.6 26.3 8.3 25.2 40.6 25.9
1968 9.5 24.0 39.3 27.2 9.4 24.6 39.3 26.7
1969 7.6 23.6 39.4 29.5 7.8 23.6 39.2 29.5
1970 8.8 22.1 37.9 31.2 8.8 22.5 37.1 31.6
1971 8.6 20.1 39.6 31.7 8.8 20.1 40.0 31.1
1972 8.3 20.0 39.5 32.2 8.4 19.7 39.4 32.5
1973 8.0 19.8 39.4 32.8 8.0 19.8 39.4 32.8
1974 7.3 19.8 39.1 33.9 7.2 19.9 38.7 34.2
1975 7.7 19.6 40.0 32.7 7.8 19.6 39.5 33.1
1976 7.7 19.3 38.3 34.8 7.6 19.5 38.7 34.2
1977 7.7 19.7 38.2 34.5 7.8 19.1 38.5 34.6
1978 7.6 19.0 36.9 36.5 7.5 18.1 37.6 36.8
1979 7.2 19.2 37.6 36.0 7.1 19.8 37.1 36.0
1980 6.5 19.4 37.5 36.6 6.4 19.3 37.4 36.9
1981 6.7 18.9 36.5 37.8 6.8 19.1 36.2 37.9
1982 7.5 19.1 35.0 38.4 7.7 19.2 34.9 38.2
1983 7.7 19.2 35.1 38.0 7.7 19.2 34.1 39.0
1984 8.0 18.8 34.4 38.8 8.0 18.8 34.4 38.8
1985 8.0 19.7 34.1 38.2 8.1 19.8 33.7 38.3
1986 8.9 21.7 31.6 37.7 8.8 20.9 35.8 34.6
1987 7.4 23.8 32.2 36.6 7.3 23.9 38.1 30.7
1988 7.1 29.6 30.3 33.0 7.3 29.9 38.9 24.0
1989 8.6 42.7 28.1 20.6 8.6 40.5 36.5 14.4
1990 8.3 66.3 22.0 3.4 9.6 54.6 29.2 6.7

Chart 7 Educational attainment in 2011 by birth year, all women residing in Manitoba

Data table for Chart 7
Data table for Chart 7
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 7 NHS: Less than high school graduation, NHS: High school graduation, NHS: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree, NHS: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, DYSEM: Less than high school graduation, DYSEM: High school graduation, DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree and DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
NHS: Less than high school graduation NHS: High school graduation NHS: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree NHS: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above DYSEM: Less than high school graduation DYSEM: High school graduation DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above
percent
1915 58.9 30.4 7.1 3.6 52.4 31.7 9.5 6.3
1916 54.4 28.2 14.6 2.9 54.5 28.7 12.9 4.0
1917 46.3 32.9 14.6 6.1 46.5 33.7 15.1 4.7
1918 50.0 30.8 17.7 1.5 54.4 27.2 15.2 3.2
1919 42.0 35.7 19.1 3.2 41.4 35.0 18.5 5.1
1920 45.0 28.4 20.7 5.9 43.4 27.7 22.6 6.3
1921 54.0 22.8 16.9 6.3 52.6 21.6 17.4 8.4
1922 42.9 29.4 24.5 3.3 44.6 27.5 23.3 4.6
1923 46.9 26.2 24.6 2.3 47.0 25.0 23.5 4.5
1924 43.7 31.3 19.4 5.6 44.1 30.4 19.4 6.1
1925 48.5 26.6 18.4 6.5 49.2 27.4 17.5 5.9
1926 48.0 21.0 23.4 7.5 48.3 19.3 24.5 8.0
1927 46.7 30.4 17.6 5.2 45.3 31.1 17.5 6.1
1928 42.7 31.3 17.2 8.9 42.6 30.5 17.1 9.8
1929 45.0 26.6 23.5 4.9 44.8 27.7 23.2 4.2
1930 42.1 28.4 22.5 7.1 41.5 28.6 22.8 7.1
1931 43.7 28.5 19.7 8.1 44.9 28.4 19.1 7.6
1932 44.4 23.3 25.3 6.9 43.8 22.9 25.3 8.0
1933 46.3 27.0 20.6 6.2 44.1 28.8 21.9 5.3
1934 40.7 31.0 21.2 7.1 40.8 30.4 21.5 7.2
1935 43.3 29.4 21.1 6.2 43.6 29.6 21.0 5.8
1936 40.6 25.9 27.0 6.5 42.1 24.0 27.1 6.7
1937 35.8 28.5 26.5 9.3 36.6 28.4 25.1 10.0
1938 39.9 28.2 24.5 7.4 41.6 26.8 24.5 7.1
1939 32.8 30.4 27.6 9.3 33.5 28.1 28.9 9.4
1940 35.8 26.3 27.6 10.2 37.0 25.7 27.5 9.8
1941 36.3 29.7 23.2 10.8 37.2 28.7 22.6 11.6
1942 32.9 25.6 28.4 13.1 32.4 24.4 29.5 13.7
1943 34.3 27.7 25.8 12.2 34.2 26.7 26.7 12.3
1944 28.0 27.3 29.6 15.0 26.9 26.7 30.6 15.7
1945 26.6 27.5 30.6 15.2 26.8 26.5 30.6 16.0
1946 26.3 26.7 29.0 18.0 26.3 26.2 29.4 18.0
1947 24.1 28.7 28.1 19.1 23.6 28.1 28.7 19.6
1948 26.8 21.7 29.8 21.6 27.4 21.0 29.1 22.5
1949 24.6 26.5 29.9 19.0 25.4 26.1 29.5 19.0
1950 21.9 26.3 30.7 21.1 22.1 25.3 30.2 22.5
1951 17.8 28.9 32.6 20.7 17.5 29.5 32.4 20.6
1952 17.8 27.6 31.8 22.9 17.6 27.2 32.2 23.0
1953 16.4 29.2 34.8 19.5 16.4 30.2 33.4 20.1
1954 16.3 29.6 33.3 20.8 16.4 29.5 33.2 20.9
1955 20.9 26.1 33.4 19.7 21.4 25.4 33.3 19.9
1956 17.2 30.2 32.8 19.7 17.3 29.4 33.5 19.8
1957 18.9 28.8 33.3 18.9 19.9 28.6 33.1 18.4
1958 17.5 32.7 30.4 19.4 17.9 33.2 31.0 18.0
1959 17.6 28.6 35.2 18.6 16.9 28.7 36.1 18.3
1960 16.8 28.7 37.1 17.4 16.3 29.1 36.3 18.2
1961 18.9 30.1 32.9 18.1 18.7 31.2 31.9 18.2
1962 16.1 28.5 34.7 20.6 16.2 29.0 34.3 20.5
1963 15.9 26.1 36.5 21.4 16.0 26.0 37.1 20.9
1964 13.7 26.6 38.5 21.2 14.2 26.7 38.2 20.9
1965 15.8 24.8 36.6 22.8 15.7 25.9 36.0 22.5
1966 18.9 27.5 31.9 21.6 19.4 27.0 32.1 21.4
1967 15.8 24.2 35.3 24.7 16.1 24.6 34.2 25.1
1968 14.5 23.9 35.2 26.4 15.3 23.7 34.9 26.1
1969 13.0 24.2 37.6 25.3 12.4 24.9 38.4 24.3
1970 14.4 21.9 38.0 25.7 14.0 21.5 38.1 26.4
1971 12.3 24.3 35.6 27.8 12.1 25.3 35.1 27.6
1972 14.6 21.5 33.9 29.9 14.4 21.7 33.6 30.4
1973 13.3 23.1 33.4 30.2 12.7 23.6 33.4 30.3
1974 13.4 21.9 34.5 30.2 13.5 21.8 34.4 30.4
1975 10.7 23.2 34.5 31.6 10.5 23.1 34.7 31.7
1976 13.1 20.7 39.0 27.2 12.8 23.2 37.9 26.1
1977 11.8 20.0 35.6 32.6 12.3 19.6 35.6 32.5
1978 11.4 24.2 33.7 30.7 11.3 24.8 32.4 31.4
1979 14.2 21.8 32.2 31.8 14.2 20.4 32.6 32.8
1980 14.4 20.9 33.8 30.8 13.1 22.1 34.9 29.8
1981 14.6 26.8 27.5 31.1 14.3 26.6 28.2 30.9
1982 13.8 25.4 27.6 33.2 13.9 25.8 27.8 32.5
1983 15.6 26.8 28.9 28.8 15.3 27.8 28.1 28.8
1984 16.7 24.7 25.5 33.1 16.1 25.1 25.9 32.9
1985 13.7 26.5 28.5 31.3 13.8 25.9 30.3 30.0
1986 14.9 34.2 23.1 27.7 13.8 28.1 28.6 29.5
1987 15.3 37.3 24.5 22.9 15.3 30.0 29.2 25.5
1988 17.5 41.2 22.1 19.2 17.6 37.0 27.4 18.1
1989 18.0 53.3 19.5 9.3 18.2 47.1 24.7 10.0
1990 18.0 63.5 16.4 2.1 18.1 57.9 19.3 4.7

Charts 8 to 10 compare DYSEM and Demosim outcomes, showing the projected highest level of educational attainment at age 65 for women born between 1946 and 2018. The DYSEM results are similar for Canada and Ontario, but less so, for Manitoba. This is as expected—visible minority status and Aboriginal identity are individual characteristics projected in Demosim and used as covariates in its educational attainment model. This is not the case in DYSEM, so its results are insensitive to changes in the composition of the population over time in regard to these characteristics.

Chart 8 Educational attainment at age 65 by birth year, all women residing in Canada

Data table for Chart 8
Data table for chart 8
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 8 Demosim: Less than high school graduation, Demosim: High school graduation, Demosim: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree, Demosim: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, DYSEM: Less than high school graduation, DYSEM: High school graduation, DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree and DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Demosim: Less than high school graduation Demosim: High school graduation Demosim: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree Demosim: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above DYSEM: Less than high school graduation DYSEM: High school graduation DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above
percent
1946 25.7 28.5 29.5 16.4 26.8 27.0 29.4 16.8
1947 24.7 28.6 29.8 16.9 24.7 27.5 30.0 17.8
1948 23.2 28.5 30.5 17.8 23.1 27.7 30.7 18.5
1949 21.5 28.0 31.9 18.6 21.7 27.5 31.7 19.2
1950 20.4 28.5 31.4 19.7 20.6 27.7 31.6 20.1
1951 18.6 29.2 32.8 19.4 18.7 28.3 33.2 19.8
1952 17.5 28.5 33.6 20.3 17.3 28.6 33.8 20.3
1953 16.7 29.2 33.9 20.2 16.7 28.4 34.5 20.4
1954 17.3 28.7 33.8 20.2 17.3 28.6 33.8 20.3
1955 16.6 28.8 34.1 20.5 16.6 28.4 34.2 20.9
1956 16.3 28.2 34.2 21.3 16.4 28.0 34.1 21.5
1957 15.4 28.1 35.1 21.3 15.7 27.9 35.2 21.2
1958 15.4 27.5 35.3 21.8 15.6 27.3 35.7 21.5
1959 14.7 26.4 37.2 21.7 14.6 26.5 37.0 22.0
1960 14.4 26.4 36.9 22.4 14.5 25.8 37.2 22.5
1961 13.6 25.4 37.8 23.2 13.4 24.9 38.1 23.6
1962 12.9 24.1 38.1 24.8 13.0 23.5 38.1 25.3
1963 12.5 22.6 38.8 26.1 12.3 21.6 39.4 26.7
1964 11.9 21.0 39.3 27.8 11.9 20.3 39.4 28.4
1965 11.0 19.7 39.7 29.6 10.9 19.3 39.8 30.0
1966 11.2 18.5 39.3 31.0 11.0 18.2 39.5 31.3
1967 10.3 17.0 38.7 34.0 9.9 16.6 38.8 34.7
1968 10.4 15.7 38.6 35.4 10.1 15.1 38.2 36.6
1969 9.4 15.5 37.4 37.8 9.3 15.0 37.0 38.7
1970 9.5 14.1 36.8 39.6 9.1 13.8 36.7 40.4
1971 8.6 13.3 35.8 42.3 8.7 12.8 36.1 42.5
1972 8.8 12.5 35.3 43.5 8.6 12.0 34.8 44.7
1973 8.5 11.8 34.3 45.5 7.9 10.9 34.8 46.4
1974 8.0 10.9 34.8 46.3 7.6 10.7 34.2 47.4
1975 7.8 11.2 33.1 47.9 7.5 10.5 33.1 48.9
1976 7.7 10.7 32.6 49.0 7.2 9.6 32.7 50.5
1977 7.2 9.7 31.8 51.2 7.0 9.1 32.0 51.9
1978 6.9 9.8 31.7 51.6 6.8 9.0 31.7 52.5
1979 7.1 9.4 30.8 52.7 6.8 9.1 30.2 53.8
1980 6.8 9.4 29.6 54.1 6.6 8.7 29.2 55.5
1981 6.7 8.9 27.8 56.5 6.4 8.1 27.9 57.5
1982 7.1 8.4 26.5 58.0 6.7 8.0 26.2 59.1
1983 7.2 8.1 25.2 59.5 6.7 7.2 25.2 60.9
1984 6.8 8.2 23.9 61.0 6.4 7.4 24.0 62.1
1985 6.6 8.0 23.3 62.1 6.4 7.1 22.7 63.8
1986 6.7 8.4 20.7 64.2 6.2 6.2 22.1 65.5
1987 6.5 7.3 21.0 65.2 5.9 5.8 21.6 66.8
1988 6.7 8.1 20.0 65.2 6.0 5.5 20.9 67.6
1989 6.5 8.2 19.3 65.9 5.6 5.3 20.3 68.7
1990 6.2 7.7 18.9 67.2 5.9 5.0 19.4 69.8
1991 6.6 6.7 17.8 68.9 5.8 5.0 19.2 70.0
1992 7.2 5.3 17.8 69.8 5.8 4.9 19.0 70.3
1993 7.0 5.0 17.6 70.4 5.7 4.7 18.7 70.9
1994 7.1 4.8 17.0 71.1 5.7 4.6 18.6 71.1
1995 7.0 4.6 17.0 71.3 5.6 4.6 18.2 71.6
1996 7.1 4.4 16.9 71.6 5.6 4.6 18.6 71.3
1997 7.1 4.3 17.2 71.3 5.6 4.5 18.6 71.3
1998 7.1 4.2 17.0 71.6 5.6 4.6 18.7 71.1
1999 7.1 4.4 17.5 71.1 5.5 4.5 18.9 71.1
2000 7.4 4.3 17.2 71.1 5.5 4.6 18.8 71.2
2001 7.3 4.3 17.2 71.2 5.5 4.6 19.0 71.0
2002 7.3 4.0 17.2 71.5 5.5 4.6 19.0 70.9
2003 7.5 4.3 16.8 71.4 5.5 4.5 19.0 71.0
2004 7.2 4.4 17.0 71.4 5.5 4.5 19.0 71.0
2005 7.2 4.3 16.8 71.8 5.5 4.5 18.9 71.1
2006 7.7 4.1 16.5 71.7 5.6 4.5 18.8 71.1
2007 7.3 4.2 16.4 72.1 5.6 4.5 18.8 71.1
2008 7.6 4.1 16.1 72.2 5.5 4.5 18.7 71.3
2009 7.5 4.1 16.1 72.4 5.6 4.6 18.8 71.0
2010 7.0 4.1 16.1 72.8 5.6 4.5 18.7 71.2
2011 6.7 4.1 16.0 73.2 5.6 4.5 18.7 71.1
2012 6.7 4.2 15.8 73.3 5.7 4.5 18.7 71.1
2013 6.7 4.1 15.1 74.1 5.6 4.6 18.8 71.0
2014 6.7 4.3 15.3 73.7 5.7 4.5 18.7 71.1
2015 6.7 4.1 15.0 74.2 5.7 4.6 18.7 71.1
2016 6.7 4.1 14.6 74.5 5.6 4.6 18.7 71.1
2017 6.8 4.0 14.4 74.8 5.7 4.5 18.5 71.2
2018 6.7 4.2 14.3 74.8 5.7 4.6 18.7 71.0
2019 6.7 4.1 14.4 74.8 5.7 4.6 18.6 71.1

Chart 9 Educational attainment at age 65 by birth year, women born in Ontario

Data table for Chart 9
Data table for chart 9
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 9 Demosim: Less than high school graduation, Demosim: High school graduation, Demosim: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree, Demosim: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, DYSEM: Less than high school graduation, DYSEM: High school graduation, DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree and DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Demosim: Less than high school graduation Demosim: High school graduation Demosim: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree Demosim: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above DYSEM: Less than high school graduation DYSEM: High school graduation DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above
percent
1946 23.6 32.0 28.3 16.0 25.1 30.1 27.5 17.4
1947 22.5 31.3 29.3 16.9 22.7 30.8 28.8 17.8
1948 19.0 32.5 29.4 19.1 18.7 32.4 29.4 19.5
1949 18.7 29.2 32.1 20.0 19.5 28.2 32.2 20.2
1950 17.3 30.5 30.9 21.2 17.3 29.7 31.2 21.8
1951 14.4 31.8 32.4 21.4 14.4 30.8 33.4 21.4
1952 13.2 31.3 32.8 22.7 13.2 31.7 32.5 22.6
1953 12.6 32.7 33.2 21.5 12.8 31.9 33.6 21.7
1954 14.1 31.6 33.5 20.8 14.1 31.4 33.5 21.0
1955 13.3 32.1 33.8 20.8 13.8 31.9 33.6 20.7
1956 12.9 31.3 34.0 21.8 12.9 31.6 33.4 22.1
1957 12.8 32.2 34.7 20.3 13.1 31.9 34.9 20.1
1958 12.7 31.1 35.1 21.0 13.1 31.3 35.2 20.4
1959 11.7 30.1 38.0 20.2 11.5 30.2 37.6 20.7
1960 12.1 30.4 37.4 20.2 12.3 29.7 37.5 20.5
1961 10.9 29.0 39.0 21.2 10.8 27.7 39.5 22.0
1962 10.2 27.3 39.0 23.6 10.7 26.4 39.2 23.6
1963 10.6 26.4 39.5 23.5 10.3 25.3 40.9 23.6
1964 9.9 23.2 40.3 26.6 10.3 22.4 40.9 26.5
1965 8.5 24.0 41.4 26.1 8.5 24.2 41.8 25.4
1966 8.3 21.5 41.6 28.5 8.5 22.3 41.2 28.0
1967 7.4 20.2 41.6 30.8 7.3 20.2 40.8 31.6
1968 8.3 18.9 39.6 33.1 8.3 19.3 39.2 33.2
1969 6.3 18.2 38.7 36.8 6.7 18.0 38.3 37.0
1970 7.5 16.4 36.6 39.5 7.5 16.4 35.6 40.5
1971 7.0 14.1 37.9 41.1 7.4 14.0 37.7 40.8
1972 6.9 13.8 36.4 42.9 7.0 13.3 36.2 43.5
1973 6.8 13.0 35.6 44.6 6.6 12.7 36.0 44.7
1974 5.5 11.9 36.2 46.4 5.8 12.1 34.7 47.4
1975 6.0 11.9 36.4 45.7 6.2 11.7 35.3 46.8
1976 6.4 11.2 32.9 49.4 5.9 11.1 33.7 49.4
1977 5.9 10.5 32.1 51.5 6.0 10.5 32.7 50.8
1978 5.8 10.6 30.1 53.5 5.7 9.3 30.4 54.6
1979 5.5 10.2 30.9 53.3 5.3 10.0 29.9 54.8
1980 5.0 9.6 29.9 55.5 4.6 9.1 28.8 57.4
1981 5.0 8.5 27.4 59.1 4.9 8.6 26.4 60.1
1982 5.4 7.7 25.1 61.8 5.6 8.2 23.7 62.5
1983 5.6 8.1 22.8 63.5 5.3 7.6 21.7 65.3
1984 5.6 7.0 20.9 66.5 5.5 6.8 19.8 67.8
1985 5.5 6.9 19.6 68.0 5.4 6.7 17.4 70.5
1986 6.5 7.5 15.5 70.5 6.0 5.9 16.8 71.3
1987 4.9 6.2 15.0 73.9 4.6 5.4 16.5 73.5
1988 4.5 7.3 13.8 74.4 4.2 5.3 15.6 75.0
1989 5.4 7.0 12.7 74.8 4.8 4.9 14.4 75.8
1990 4.2 7.8 12.3 75.8 4.8 4.7 13.5 77.0
1991 4.8 5.9 11.6 77.8 4.7 4.6 13.0 77.6
1992 5.5 4.5 11.7 78.3 4.7 4.5 12.8 77.9
1993 5.2 3.7 11.6 79.5 4.6 4.2 12.3 78.9
1994 4.8 4.0 11.0 80.2 4.6 4.2 12.2 79.0
1995 5.2 4.2 10.4 80.1 4.6 4.1 11.7 79.6
1996 4.5 3.5 10.1 81.9 4.8 4.1 11.4 79.7
1997 4.9 3.0 11.4 80.7 4.8 4.0 11.6 79.6
1998 4.9 3.9 9.7 81.5 4.7 3.9 11.6 79.8
1999 4.8 3.4 10.8 81.0 4.7 4.0 11.5 79.9
2000 5.2 3.6 11.2 80.1 4.6 4.0 11.4 80.0
2001 5.0 3.9 9.8 81.3 4.7 4.1 11.7 79.5
2002 4.8 3.2 10.4 81.6 4.7 4.0 11.4 79.8
2003 5.2 3.4 10.3 81.1 4.6 4.1 11.4 79.9
2004 4.5 4.0 10.4 81.2 4.6 4.1 11.8 79.6
2005 4.3 3.7 10.4 81.6 4.8 4.1 11.4 79.7
2006 4.9 3.7 10.2 81.2 4.7 3.9 11.7 79.7
2007 4.8 3.5 9.5 82.1 4.7 4.1 11.5 79.7
2008 4.9 3.4 10.4 81.4 4.5 3.9 11.6 79.9
2009 5.2 3.1 9.7 82.0 4.6 4.0 11.6 79.8
2010 4.7 3.2 10.3 81.8 4.8 4.0 11.2 80.1
2011 4.7 3.5 10.5 81.2 4.6 4.1 11.7 79.6
2012 4.4 3.3 9.9 82.4 4.7 3.9 11.4 80.0
2013 5.1 3.1 9.2 82.6 4.7 4.0 11.7 79.6
2014 4.9 3.6 10.3 81.2 4.7 3.9 11.5 79.9
2015 4.3 3.2 9.9 82.6 4.8 4.0 11.4 79.8
2016 4.5 3.6 10.0 81.9 4.6 4.1 11.7 79.7
2017 4.5 3.2 10.5 81.8 4.8 3.9 11.3 80.0
2018 4.7 3.2 9.9 82.2 4.8 4.0 11.5 79.7
2019 4.5 3.3 10.2 82.1 4.7 4.1 11.6 79.6

Chart 10 Educational attainment at age 65 by birth year, women born in Manitoba

Data table for Chart 10
Data table for Chart 10
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 10 Demosim: Less than high school graduation, Demosim: High school graduation, Demosim: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree, Demosim: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, DYSEM: Less than high school graduation, DYSEM: High school graduation, DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree and DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Demosim: Less than high school graduation Demosim: High school graduation Demosim: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree Demosim: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above DYSEM: Less than high school graduation DYSEM: High school graduation DYSEM: Graduation from postsecondary education below bachelor's degree DYSEM: Graduation with a bachelor's degree or above
percent
1946 25.6 28.1 27.5 18.8 26.4 26.2 29.4 18.1
1947 23.1 29.0 28.6 19.3 23.4 28.0 28.8 19.8
1948 26.8 21.8 29.8 21.6 27.4 20.7 29.2 22.7
1949 24.9 25.6 30.5 19.0 24.9 26.1 29.7 19.3
1950 21.8 25.8 30.6 21.9 21.7 24.9 30.4 23.0
1951 17.0 28.3 33.2 21.5 17.1 29.0 32.5 21.4
1952 17.3 27.1 31.8 23.8 17.3 26.8 32.5 23.4
1953 15.8 28.5 35.9 19.8 16.2 29.2 33.7 20.9
1954 15.3 29.9 33.0 21.8 15.9 28.7 33.6 21.8
1955 19.8 26.4 32.4 21.4 20.8 25.0 33.2 21.0
1956 16.6 29.1 32.8 21.5 16.7 28.7 33.5 21.1
1957 18.3 27.5 33.8 20.4 19.4 27.7 33.2 19.6
1958 15.7 33.1 30.7 20.5 17.1 32.3 31.4 19.2
1959 16.5 27.4 36.4 19.7 16.2 27.1 36.6 20.0
1960 15.1 28.3 37.8 18.9 15.9 27.8 36.6 19.7
1961 18.2 29.4 32.3 20.1 17.7 29.3 32.7 20.3
1962 14.4 28.3 35.3 22.0 15.4 26.4 35.1 23.2
1963 14.7 23.9 36.8 24.6 15.2 23.0 37.8 24.0
1964 12.4 24.4 39.3 24.0 13.2 23.8 38.9 24.1
1965 13.8 22.6 35.7 27.9 14.3 22.1 37.4 26.2
1966 17.5 24.0 33.1 25.4 18.1 23.2 33.3 25.4
1967 14.6 20.3 35.7 29.3 14.6 20.0 34.9 30.5
1968 12.4 19.6 35.5 32.5 14.3 18.5 35.0 32.2
1969 10.7 20.4 38.3 30.5 11.0 19.7 38.1 31.2
1970 12.9 14.7 39.0 33.4 12.4 16.0 36.9 34.7
1971 11.5 18.8 33.7 36.0 10.5 18.1 34.6 36.8
1972 12.7 15.2 32.7 39.4 12.5 16.1 31.0 40.4
1973 12.2 16.6 31.2 40.0 10.9 16.2 31.1 41.9
1974 12.2 13.4 31.4 43.0 11.3 15.1 31.6 41.9
1975 9.5 14.7 32.9 42.9 8.6 14.5 32.2 44.8
1976 11.3 12.6 38.2 37.8 10.6 14.2 36.7 38.6
1977 10.7 13.3 30.9 45.2 10.2 10.9 31.3 47.5
1978 9.5 15.8 30.3 44.4 9.4 14.1 29.5 47.0
1979 11.5 11.8 27.3 49.3 11.7 11.3 27.0 50.0
1980 12.3 12.4 28.2 47.2 10.4 11.2 29.5 48.8
1981 12.3 14.9 24.4 48.4 11.5 15.8 23.7 49.0
1982 10.4 13.4 24.1 52.1 10.9 13.4 21.6 54.1
1983 12.2 14.6 21.8 51.3 12.2 14.2 22.6 51.0
1984 13.2 12.8 16.8 57.2 12.3 12.1 17.7 57.9
1985 11.8 13.9 19.5 54.9 10.1 11.5 20.2 58.2
1986 12.7 17.2 12.1 57.9 10.3 11.6 17.5 60.7
1987 12.4 11.0 17.0 59.6 11.2 10.1 16.2 62.5
1988 15.1 12.7 14.1 58.0 12.7 10.1 15.0 62.1
1989 13.7 13.6 10.6 62.2 12.2 9.1 15.0 63.7
1990 12.2 11.2 14.6 61.9 11.5 9.7 13.3 65.5
1991 13.6 9.3 10.9 66.1 11.3 8.9 14.0 65.8
1992 15.7 7.5 10.3 66.5 11.2 8.6 13.3 66.8
1993 16.9 7.3 12.3 63.5 11.1 7.6 12.7 68.6
1994 17.7 8.6 11.6 62.1 10.7 8.0 12.7 68.6
1995 14.7 6.7 10.8 67.9 10.4 7.7 11.9 69.9
1996 14.3 5.6 13.2 66.8 11.7 8.0 12.4 67.9
1997 17.5 8.0 12.0 62.6 11.3 8.1 12.1 68.5
1998 17.6 5.8 10.9 65.7 11.7 7.2 12.4 68.7
1999 15.3 6.7 12.1 65.9 10.4 8.3 12.3 69.0
2000 15.3 7.6 12.8 64.3 10.8 8.6 12.7 67.9
2001 19.6 5.9 12.6 61.9 10.8 8.3 11.9 69.1
2002 17.6 5.8 13.0 63.6 11.3 8.9 12.2 67.7
2003 14.7 7.2 11.1 66.9 10.6 7.5 12.5 69.3
2004 15.7 6.3 12.3 65.7 11.0 7.3 12.5 69.3
2005 17.2 7.9 11.2 63.8 11.5 7.7 12.2 68.6
2006 16.3 4.4 11.3 68.0 11.0 8.3 12.5 68.2
2007 16.2 7.5 12.8 63.5 10.6 8.3 12.5 68.7
2008 14.7 8.3 11.2 65.8 11.2 8.1 12.9 67.9
2009 15.3 6.2 13.0 65.5 11.1 8.1 12.3 68.5
2010 15.3 8.2 12.2 64.3 10.7 8.1 13.2 68.0
2011 17.0 5.8 13.2 64.0 10.5 7.9 12.2 69.5
2012 13.3 7.0 14.1 65.6 11.5 7.5 12.4 68.5
2013 11.9 6.5 11.5 70.2 10.9 8.2 12.7 68.2
2014 13.5 8.4 12.8 65.3 11.5 7.8 12.7 68.0
2015 15.2 7.2 9.3 68.3 10.5 8.1 12.5 68.9
2016 14.6 7.2 12.9 65.4 10.9 8.3 12.4 68.5
2017 15.5 5.7 9.1 69.7 11.2 8.0 12.2 68.6
2018 13.7 6.6 10.6 69.1 11.3 8.1 12.6 68.1
2019 10.7 6.9 13.2 69.2 10.7 8.7 12.4 68.2

5 Potential applications

Microsimulation developers can build on the DYSEM platform to incorporate the additional socioeconomic aspects of the actors’ simulated lives necessary to address their particular research questions.

For example, an application developed using DYSEM could explore research questions relating to the long‑term care of the elderly. The model could be used to examine various scenarios for the projected future use of long‑term facilities (or nursing homes), the costs associated with such care, and allocation of these costs between governments and individuals. Such research could explore different scenarios for mortality, nursing home availability or utilization, the cost of nursing home care, the income of seniors, and alternative government cost‑sharing policies.

Such an application would require custom development that builds on the DYSEM platform. Specifically, modelling of the marital status and family income of the elderly, as well as individual utilization of nursing homes and home care, and associated provincial policies for user fees, could be added to the model core.

Similarly, microsimulation applications seeking to address research questions in other domains such as financial assistance programs for students, tax and transfer policies, caregiving, or retirement income policy would require custom extensions of the DYSEM core.

6 Conclusion

Dynamic microsimulation models offer uniquely valuable opportunities for socioeconomic research. Among the characteristics that make them unique are the integration of many data sources in their development to provide comprehensive empirical portraits, an emphasis on modelling realistic individual life histories, and the ability to meaningfully represent the complexity of diverse, actual populations through the simulation of millions of realistic individuals. Their focus on the micro (individual) level makes them ideal for framing and exploring policy‑oriented “what‑if” questions, and allows distributional analysis in all possible dimensions.

The DYSEM platform is a flexible and simple demographic and socio‑economic core that can be built upon in the development of dynamic socioeconomic microsimulation models. The demographic events currently modelled are births, immigration, emigration, interprovincial migration, and mortality. The default scenario has been parameterized to reproduce Statistics Canada’s 2015 population projections, M1 scenario. DYSEM also models four levels of educational attainment; further development will include earnings. A series of validation tests have shown that the model performs as expected.

At this point, the DYSEM platform, with custom model extensions, can be used to address research questions in various domains.

More information about the DYSEM microsimulation platform itself and custom microsimulation applications can be obtained by contacting Statistics Canada’s Social Analysis and Modelling Division at statcan.microsimulation‑microsimulation.statcan@canada.ca.

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