Executive summary

In 2007, a record number of Canadians were registered in apprenticeship programs – apprenticeship registrations increasing by 120% since 1995. Over the same period, apprenticeship completions increased by only 43%. To add some context, the growth rate in undergraduate university enrollments was 36% and the number of graduates increased by 30% over this same period. The Canadian Apprenticeship Forum has been discussing a likely future shortage in skilled labour. There is little understanding of why such a large proportion of registered apprentices fail to complete their programs and become journeypersons in their chosen trade. Although the number of registered apprentices in Canada is at an all time high, completion rates remain low, compared to those for other types of post-secondary education. While the determinants of university and college access and the determinants of persistence to graduation have been the topic of numerous recent studies, a similar analysis for apprentices in the skilled trades is lacking. What demographic, labour market, and apprenticeship characteristics are related to the completion of these programs? This research attempts to answer this question.

This study uses a new data set-the 2007 National Apprenticeship Survey (NAS)-to address the correlates of persistence behaviour among Canadians who were registered in apprenticeship programs at some point in the 2002-2004 period. Using the postal codes in the NAS as well as the Postal Code Conversion File Plus (PCCF+) enables the linkage of the individuals’ records to the regional unemployment rate in the Labour Force Survey (LFS). A multinomial probit model is used to estimate the relationship between these variables and the completion behaviour of apprentices.

The results show that a number of demographic and occupational variables are related to the completion probability of registered apprentices. Being married, and having fewer children is positively related to completion, as is having completed a high school education or higher level of education prior to entering apprenticeship training. There are no differences in completion behaviour between the sexes once other controls are included in the model.

The probability of completion peaks at four years, the usual length of most apprenticeship programs. It is also found in this study that the regional unemployment rate is very weakly (but positively) related to completion and that there are differences in completion rates between provinces. Factors such as trade group, type of technical training, and having a journeyperson present are important correlates of program completion.

The results imply that the design of apprenticeship programs is important. That differences between trades and provinces are found suggests that future research should further exploit the provincial and trade group differences in programs in order to arrive at a better understanding of the program characteristics that may enhance completion.