This
probably overstates the true opportunity costs slightly since the actual mortgage
rate in a transaction is below this posted rate.
Only the housing-service component of expenses is of interest
here—not other services, such as utilities, which are conceptually different
from the space rent.
A measure of depreciation
could have been derived from that used by the CPI (1.5%); however, that estimate
was derived from somewhat dated U.S. studies and would not have been consistent
with the other expenses derived from the SHS.
These expenditures are made in order to increase the
value and useful life of the property. They include the following: structural
additions or extensions; remodeling rooms; replacements and new installations
of fences, driveways, patios, swimming pools, major landscaping, roofs, eaves
troughing, exterior walls, windows, doors, hard-surface flooring, wall-to-wall
carpeting, plumbing fixtures and equipment, heating and/or air-conditioning
equipment, electrical fixtures and equipment, and built-in appliances; and
other improvements and alterations.
For condominiums, a large portion of expenditures
on improvements and alterations are incorporated into condo fees. Therefore, 30%
of condo fees are added to expenditures on improvements and alterations.
For instance, the replacement of siding on a townhouse will
be less than that for a detached home because a townhouse will have at most
three sides.
Alternately, we could have used the rate of 1.5% used in
the CPI. But the latter takes into account both structural and non-structural
depreciation, and is based on studies that are dated. We felt it better to
directly estimate the non-structural component and then to add an estimate
for the latter. See Buergel-Goodwin, Ferrara, and Bradley (2005) for evidence
that the structural component depreciates at very low rates.
Harding,
Rosenthal, and Sirmans (2007) argue that depreciation gross of maintenance
in the US between 1981 and 2001 averaged around 2.5%.
The estimate used here for depreciation plus maintenance is 2.43%.
SHS Data Dictionary, 2006: Data Model Entity (Internal Household).
For condo, 10%
of condo fees are added to expenditures on repairs and maintenance.
Using housing price data dating back to the late
nineteenth century, Shiller (2007) finds, during the post-2000 period,
significantly higher house prices than experienced over a century of data,
for the United States, Norway and the Netherlands.
This method is meant only to smooth out the estimates of user costs—not
to test whether a housing bubble existed at any point in time.
This occurred only when the terms of trade were included in the model.
For instance, the
contribution to utility of an additional bedroom in a home will depend on
the number of bathrooms in that home.
The SHS also provides information on major and minor repairs;
however, by construction of the rent variable, dwellings in need of major
repairs are excluded. Inclusion of the period of construction of the dwelling
in the SHS model had no significant effect on results; consequently, it was
dropped from the final specification reported in Table
3.
Neighbourhoods are defined as dissemination areas.
We experimented with fixed effects
for dissemination areas in order to better account for location within urban
areas and other unobserved neighbourhood characteristics (e.g., access to
recreational opportunities or good schools). However, this had only a modest
effect on our results, and led to complications when predicting rents for
owner-occupied homes in disseminations areas with no or very few rental housing
units.
Higher rental rates for apartment
buildings over five stories in height may reflect the generally more central
location of these types of rental accommodation.
While the negative effect of owned dwellings might be considered
an unexpected result, it is important to keep in mind that a higher share
of owner-occupied housing may be correlated with a location on the outskirts
of metropolitan areas, where rental rates would tend to be lower in order
to compensate for higher (pecuniary and non-pecuniary) commuting costs.
Alternate sensitivity tests can be performed with these ranges. For example,
if it is assumed that capital costs are 1% lower than employed here (possibly
because some mortgages were written at a discount or used variable, rather
than fixed, rates), this corresponds to the results produced under the 6%
column. Unpublished research within Statistics Canada suggests a 1% discount
on the capital costs is not unreasonable.
If quintile ranges from
the SHS are utilized, which are somewhat higher than those from the Census,
the number of observations in the top quintile falls to 69, and the average
rent paid for these homes rises to $17,900.
This may reflect lower house prices reported in the Census of Population;
these are due in part to the earlier reporting data. The 2006 SHS
survey was conducted between February and April 2007 and asks respondents
the value of their home at that time, while the 2006 Census of Population
was conducted in May 2006 and asked respondents to estimate the
value of their home at the time of the Census. Consequently, there is approximately
one year between the two surveys. It is also possible that the Census of Population
provides a better sample coverage of low-value homes.
It should
be noted that this is also the result when one assumes a longer-run price
average for expectations and a discount from the fixed-rate mortgage rate.
Returns to equity are calculated by multiplying the equity share of the home
by the value of housing services accounted for by equity. This is the cost-of-capital
portion of the user-cost measure of housing services, and so takes into account
the opportunity cost of capital plus depreciation less expected appreciation
in house prices.
The same pattern holds when
homeowners and renters are combined.