Survey Methodology

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June 2014

The journal Survey Methodology Volume 40, Number 1 (June 2014) contains the following 8 papers:

Regular Papers:

Hierarchical Bayes Modeling of Survey-Weighted Small Area Proportions

Benmei Liu, Partha Lahiri and Graham Kalton

Abstract

The paper reports the results of a Monte Carlo simulation study that was conducted to compare the effectiveness of four different hierarchical Bayes small area models for producing state estimates of proportions based on data from stratified simple random samples from a fixed finite population. Two of the models adopted the commonly made assumptions that the survey weighted proportion for each sampled small area has a normal distribution and that the sampling variance of this proportion is known. One of these models used a linear linking model and the other used a logistic linking model. The other two models both employed logistic linking models and assumed that the sampling variance was unknown. One of these models assumed a normal distribution for the sampling model while the other assumed a beta distribution.  The study found that for all four models the credible interval design-based coverage of the finite population state proportions deviated markedly from the 95 percent nominal level used in constructing the intervals.

Bayes linear estimation for finite population with emphasis on categorical data

Kelly Cristina M. Gonçalves, Fernando A.S. Moura and Helio S. Migon

Abstract

Bayes linear estimator for finite population is obtained from a two-stage regression model, specified only by the means and variances of some model parameters associated with each stage of the hierarchy. Many common design-based estimators found in the literature can be obtained as particular cases. A new ratio estimator is also proposed for the practical situation in which auxiliary information is available. The same Bayes linear approach is proposed for obtaining estimation of proportions for multiple categorical data associated with finite population units, which is the main contribution of this work. A numerical example is provided to illustrate it.

A nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations to adjust for complex sampling design features

Qi Dong, Michael R. Elliott and Trivellore E. Raghunathan

Abstract

Outside of the survey sampling literature, samples are often assumed to be generated by simple random sampling process that produces independent and identically distributed (IID) samples. Many statistical methods are developed largely in this IID world. Application of these methods to data from complex sample surveys without making allowance for the survey design features can lead to erroneous inferences. Hence, much time and effort have been devoted to develop the statistical methods to analyze complex survey data and account for the sample design. This issue is particularly important when generating synthetic populations using finite population Bayesian inference, as is often done in missing data or disclosure risk settings, or when combining data from multiple surveys. By extending previous work in finite population Bayesian bootstrap literature, we propose a method to generate synthetic populations from a posterior predictive distribution in a fashion inverts the complex sampling design features and generates simple random samples from a superpopulation point of view, making adjustment on the complex data so that they can be analyzed as simple random samples. We consider a simulation study with a stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample design, and use the proposed nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations for the 2006 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), which are stratified, clustered unequal-probability of selection sample designs.

Using successive difference replication for estimating variances

Stephen Ash

Abstract

Fay and Train (1995) present a method called successive difference replication that can be used to estimate the variance of an estimated total from a systematic random sample from an ordered list. The estimator uses the general form of a replication variance estimator, where the replicate factors are constructed such that the estimator mimics the successive difference estimator. This estimator is a modification of the estimator given by Wolter (1985). The paper furthers the methodology by explaining the impact of the row assignments on the variance estimator, showing how a reduced set of replicates leads to a reasonable estimator, and establishing conditions for successive difference replication to be equivalent to the successive difference estimator.

Variance Estimation Using Linearization for Poverty and Social Exclusion Indicators

Eric Graf and Yves Tillé

Abstract

We have used the generalized linearization technique based on the concept of influence function, as Osier has done (Osier 2009), to estimate the variance of complex statistics such as Laeken indicators. Simulations conducted using the R language show that the use of Gaussian kernel estimation to estimate an income density function results in a strongly biased variance estimate. We are proposing two other density estimation methods that significantly reduce the observed bias. One of the methods has already been outlined by Deville (2000). The results published in this article will help to significantly improve the quality of information on the precision of certain Laeken indicators that are disseminated and compared internationally.

Theoretical and empirical properties of model assisted decision-based regression estimators

Jun Shao, Eric Slud, Yang Cheng, Sheng Wang, and Carma Hogue

Abstract

In 2009, two major surveys in the Governments Division of the U.S. Census Bureau were redesigned to reduce sample size, save resources, and improve the precision of the estimates (Cheng, Corcoran, Barth and Hogue 2009). The new design divides each of the traditional state by government-type strata with sufficiently many units into two sub-strata according to each governmental unit's total payroll, in order to sample less from the sub-stratum with small size units. The model-assisted approach is adopted in estimating population totals. Regression estimators using auxiliary variables are obtained either within each created sub-stratum or within the original stratum by collapsing two sub-strata. A decision-based method was proposed in Cheng, Slud and Hogue (2010), applying a hypothesis test to decide which regression estimator is used within each original stratum. Consistency and asymptotic normality of these model-assisted estimators are established here, under a design-based or model-assisted asymptotic framework. Our asymptotic results also suggest two types of consistent variance estimators, one obtained by substituting unknown quantities in the asymptotic variances and the other by applying the bootstrap. The performance of all the estimators of totals and of their variance estimators are examined in some empirical studies. The U.S. Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll (ASPEP) is used to motivate and illustrate our study.

The influence of sampling method and interviewers on sample realization in the European Social Survey

Natalja Menold

Abstract

This article addresses the impact of different sampling procedures on realised sample quality in the case of probability samples. This impact was expected to result from varying degrees of freedom on the part of interviewers to interview easily available or cooperative individuals (thus producing substitutions). The analysis was conducted in a cross-cultural context using data from the first four rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS). Substitutions are measured as deviations from a 50/50 gender ratio in subsamples with heterosexual couples. Significant deviations were found in numerous countries of the ESS. They were also found to be lowest in cases of samples with official registers of residents as sample frame (individual person register samples) if one partner was more difficult to contact than the other. This scope of substitutions did not differ across the ESS rounds and it was weakly correlated with payment and control procedures. It can be concluded from the results that individual person register samples are associated with higher sample quality.

Short Notes:

Bayesian multiple imputation for large-scale categorical data with structural zeros

Daniel Manrique-Vallier and Jerome P. Reiter

Abstract

We propose an approach for multiple imputation of items missing at random in large-scale surveys with exclusively categorical variables that have structural zeros. Our approach is to use mixtures of multinomial distributions as imputation engines, accounting for structural zeros by conceiving of the observed data as a truncated sample from a hypothetical population without structural zeros. This approach has several appealing features: imputations are generated from coherent, Bayesian joint models that automatically capture complex dependencies and readily scale to large numbers of variables. We outline a Gibbs sampling algorithm for implementing the approach, and we illustrate its potential with a repeated sampling study using public use census microdata from the state of New York, U.S.A.

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