Analysis – October 2009

Prices farmers received for their commodities fell 15.2% in October from the same month a year earlier, as both the crops index and the livestock and animal products index declined.

The prices producers received for crops in October were 17.7% lower compared with October 2008 as all commodities except fruit recorded decreases. This marks the 11th consecutive year-over-year decrease for the crops index. Before the slide, crop prices had recorded year-over-year increases from September 2006 until October 2008, when world grain and oilseed supplies were replenished by record harvests.

The prices producers received for livestock and animal products in October were down 8.9% compared with October 2008. Decreases were recorded for all commodities. The largest decrease was recorded by hog prices, down 22.8% from last year. Hog producers have been affected by the US Country of Origin Labeling legislation, concerns about the H1N1 flu virus and lower demand driven by the economic situation. By October 1, 2009, the number of hogs on Canadian farms had declined by 7.3% with 9.4% fewer farms reporting hogs compared with October 2008.

On a month-to-month basis, the total index (1997=100) decreased from 103.7 in September to 103.5 in October.

The overall livestock and animal products index in October was 0.8% below the September index as cattle and calves and poultry prices recorded decreases.

The total crops index was down 0.2% in October compared with the September index, as prices for oilseeds and potatoes were lower.

After the challenging 2009 summer growing season, the much needed dry and mild weather in September boosted crop development and helped the harvest progress. However October returned to more challenging conditions all across North America, again raising concerns over harvest progress.