Analysis
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% in the 12 months to November, following a 0.7% increase in October. November marked the seventh month in the last 13 months in which the CPI increased less than 1.0% on a year-over-year basis.
Energy prices
The energy component of the CPI, which includes electricity, natural gas, fuel oil and gasoline, increased 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in November, after decreasing 1.6% in October. The CPI excluding energy rose 0.8% in November compared with the same month last year, following a 0.9% rise in October.
The larger year-over-year rise in the energy component was led by gasoline prices, which rose 0.4% in the 12 months to November, after declining 4.3% in October. Gasoline prices fell on a monthly basis in November, although to a lesser extent than in the same month last year.
Electricity prices rose 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, led by an 8.1% increase in Ontario. Natural gas prices advanced 5.3% in the 12 months to November. The cost of fuel oil was 3.3% higher compared with the same month last year.
12-month change in the major components
Six of the eight major components recorded gains in the 12 months to November. Higher shelter costs and food prices were the main contributing factors to the year-over-year increase in the CPI. Health and personal care, and clothing and footwear, were the only two major components to post declines on a year-over-year basis.
Shelter costs rose 1.8% in the 12 months to November, following a 1.3% gain in October. In addition to paying more for electricity, natural gas and fuel oil, consumers paid 1.7% more for rent and 1.5% more for homeowners’ replacement cost. In contrast, mortgage interest cost declined 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in November, after falling 2.6% the previous month.
Food prices rose 1.1% in November compared with the same month last year, after posting a 0.9% increase in October. The cost of food purchased from stores increased 1.1% in the 12 months to November, led by price increases for fresh vegetables (+12.1%) and meat (+1.9%). Conversely, prices for dairy products, cereal products, as well as sugar and confectionery declined.
In addition to food purchased from stores, consumers paid 1.2% more for food purchased from restaurants on a year-over-year basis.
The transportation index increased 0.5% in the 12 months to November, following a 0.1% decline in October. In contrast to gasoline, prices for the purchase of passenger vehicles rose at a slower year-over-year rate in November (+0.4%) compared with October (+1.7%). This deceleration was mainly attributable to a smaller monthly price increase for the purchase of passenger vehicles this November compared with the same month last year.
Prices for clothing and footwear declined 0.4% in the 12 months to November, led by price decreases for women’s clothing.
The health and personal care component decreased 0.6% on a year-over-year basis in November, as the indexes for prescribed medicines, and personal care supplies and equipment declined.
12-month change in the provinces
Consumer prices rose in nine provinces in the 12 months to November. British Columbia was the exception, recording a decline on a year-over-year basis. The largest rise was recorded in Prince Edward Island, while the smallest increase was observed in Quebec. Saskatchewan was the only province where consumer prices rose at a slower year-over-year rate in November compared with October.
In Prince Edward Island, consumer prices increased 2.6% in the 12 months to November, following a 2.0% rise in October. Of all the provinces, Prince Edward Island recorded the largest year-over-year increase in gasoline prices (+6.3%). This increase followed a 2.1% decline in October.
Quebec recorded a 0.6% increase in consumer prices in the 12 months to November, after posting a 0.2% rise in October. Quebec was one of four provinces where gasoline prices decreased on a year-over-year basis in November. In addition, prices for clothing and footwear declined more on a year-over-year basis in Quebec compared with the national average.
Consumer prices in Saskatchewan rose 1.4% in the 12 months to November, following a 1.5% increase in October. This province recorded the largest deceleration in the purchase of passenger vehicles index. In Saskatchewan, gasoline prices decreased 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Seasonally adjusted monthly CPI increases
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2% in November, following a 0.1% decline in October.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, five of the eight major components posted increases in November. The shelter index recorded the largest increase (+0.5%), followed by clothing and footwear (+0.3%) and food (+0.2%). However, before seasonal adjustment, prices for clothing and footwear declined 2.0% and food prices rose 0.8%. This indicates that the monthly movements in the unadjusted indexes for these two components were largely seasonal.
The transportation index (-0.6%) was the only component to decline on a seasonally adjusted basis in November. Before seasonal adjustment, the transportation index declined 0.4%.
Non-seasonally adjusted monthly CPI posts no change
On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the CPI posted no change in November, after recording a 0.2% decrease in October.
Prices for fresh vegetables rose 12.5% in November after falling 3.2% in October. Conversely, consumers paid 5.1% less for traveller accommodation in November.
Gasoline prices decreased 1.1% in November, following a 5.1% decline in October. The western provinces recorded the largest decreases in gasoline prices, while Quebec and Prince Edward Island were the only two provinces where the cost of gasoline rose in November.
Consumer prices increased in four provinces in November compared with October. Saskatchewan and British Columbia were the only two provinces to record a decline.
Bank of Canada’s core index
The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.1% in the 12 months to November, after increasing 1.2% in October.
On a month-to-month basis and before seasonal adjustment, the core index declined 0.1% in November, following a 0.2% increase the previous month.
On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index posted no change in November for the second consecutive month.
Note to readers
The special aggregate "Energy" includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.
A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Users employing Consumer Price Index data for indexation purposes are advised to use the unadjusted indexes. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonal adjustment and identifying economic trends.
The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components.
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