Analysis

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.4% in the 12 months to November, after increasing 1.0% in October.

Gasoline prices continued to moderate the year-over-year rise in the CPI in November, but to a lesser extent than in October. In November, the gasoline index was down 10.6% year over year compared with a 17.1% decrease the previous month.

12-month change in the major components

Prices were up in seven of the eight major components on a year-over-year basis in November, with the food and shelter indexes contributing the most to the rise in the CPI. The transportation index, which includes gasoline, recorded its smallest decrease since November 2014.

Food prices were up 3.4% in the 12 months to November, after rising 4.1% in October. The index for food purchased from stores registered a 3.7% year-over-year gain, following a 4.6% increase the previous month. While prices for fresh vegetables and meat contributed the most to the gain, they increased less year over year in November than October. Prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 2.8% on a year-over-year basis in November, following a 2.7% increase in October.

The clothing and footwear index increased 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in November, after rising 0.8% in October. This acceleration was led by men’s clothing prices, which increased more in the 12 months to November (+3.0%) than in October (+0.7%). In addition, the jewellery index rose 7.8% year over year in November, its largest increase since October 2013.

The transportation index was down 1.1% in the 12 months to November, after decreasing 3.2% the previous month. This smaller year-over-year decline was mainly attributable to gasoline prices, which fell less in the 12 months to November than in October. The purchase of passenger vehicles index was up 1.9% year over year in November, after increasing 1.6% the previous month.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose in all provinces in the 12 months to November, with Saskatchewan posting the largest gain. The CPI in Prince Edward Island registered its first year-over-year increase since November 2014.

In every province, gasoline prices decreased less on a year-over-year basis in November than in October.

The CPI in Saskatchewan rose 2.1% in the 12 months to November, after increasing 1.4% the previous month. The women’s clothing index was up 5.1% year over year in November, a larger increase than at the national level. In addition, the purchase of passenger vehicles index increased more on a year-over-year basis in November (+3.9%) than in October (+3.2%).

In Prince Edward Island, the CPI was up 0.2% year over year in November, after declining 0.8% the previous month. The fuel oil index posted a smaller decrease in the 12 months to November (-17.1%) compared with October (-21.9%). The women’s clothing index was down 10.7% year over year in November, following a 16.5% decrease the previous month.

Manitoba was the lone province to record a smaller year-over-year increase in its CPI in November (+1.8%) than in October (+1.9%). This deceleration was partly attributable to the natural gas index, which fell 11.0% in the 12 months to November compared with a 1.9% decrease the previous month. The main upward contributor to the CPI in the province was the purchase of passenger vehicles index, which rose 2.5% year over year in November.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2% in November, matching the increase in October.

In November, five of the eight major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, two decreased, while the food index posted no change.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the largest increase in November was recorded in the transportation index (+0.8%), while the household operations, furnishings and equipment index (-0.6%) posted the largest decline.

Non-seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index decreases

On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the CPI declined 0.1% in November, after increasing 0.1% in October.

Consumer prices were down in six provinces, with Nova Scotia (-0.5%) posting the largest decrease. Prince Edward Island and British Columbia were the only provinces where the CPI increased on a non-seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while Ontario and Saskatchewan posted no change.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index was up 2.0% in the 12 months to November, following a 2.1% rise in October.

On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the core index fell 0.3% in November, after increasing 0.3% the previous month.

The seasonally adjusted core index was up 0.1% on a monthly basis in November, after increasing 0.2% in October.

Note to readers

A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Users employing Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for indexation purposes are advised to use the unadjusted indexes. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonally adjusted data – Frequently asked questions.

The Bank of Canada's core index excludes eight of the CPI's most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers' supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components.

As mentioned in the previous release, this month marks the implementation of an improved methodology for the internet access services index. For more information, refer to Changes to the Internet Access Services Index of the Consumer Price Index.

The methodology for the traveller accommodation index will be updated with the release of the January 2016 reference month CPI (to be published February 19, 2016). For more information, refer to Changes to the traveller accommodation index of the Consumer Price Index.

New product

An update to The Canadian Consumer Price Index Reference Paper (62-553-X) is now available. The paper explains all the important aspects of the Canadian CPI: uses and interpretations, scope, classifications, sample strategy, price collection, index calculation, quality change, weights, basket updates, reliability and uncertainty, special cases and treatments, and history.

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