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By Sharanjit Uppal, Ted Wannell and Edouard Imbeau
Income earlier in life is the strongest correlate of Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) receipt. For individuals with average incomes, an additional $1,000 of earnings in their late 40s would reduce the probability of being a GIS recipient by 1.1 percentage points for men and 1.4 points for women. The effects are similar for other types of income.
Subsequent income changes are also important. For example, an earnings increase of $1,000 for a woman in her early 50s would decrease the probability of receiving GIS by 1.1 percentage points. The same increase in her early 60s would reduce the probability by 0.8 points. This general pattern also held for other types of individual and family income.
Evidence of job or personal difficulties in middle age—such as unemployment, social assistance or disability—increase the probability of receiving GIS benefits later on. On the other hand, participation in an employer pension plan or regular contributions to a registered retirement savings plan reduce the probability of GIS receipt. Both these positive and negative factors were significant even after controlling for income levels and trajectories.
The effects of all variables were about three times greater for individuals with characteristics likely to place them at risk of GIS receipt. More than half of those who were in the bottom two income quintiles in their late 40s (56% of men and 61% of women) were not consistently collecting the GIS in their late 60s. This result is consistent with the finding that individuals remain quite mobile across income categories between their late 40s and late 60s.
