The migration of infrastructure tradespersons

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by Martin Turcotte and Jeremy Weeks

[Release from The Daily] [Full article in PDF]

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• Overview of the study
• Introduction
• Migration rates are not necessarily higher among infrastructure tradespersons
• Residents of Atlantic provinces had higher rates of interprovincial migration
• Alberta gained many tradespersons, but also lost many
• More than one-third of interprovincial migrant tradespersons returned to their province
  of birth
• Conclusion
• Notes
• Related material for this article

Text begins

Introduction

In a vast country like Canada, regional labour markets play an important role in determining the types of labour needed to meet the needs of the local economy. Resource-rich regions, in particular, may be experiencing labour shortages in specific industries, while some other regions may have a labour surplus.^Note 1 Increasing the mobility of labour, notably among recent graduates, is therefore seen as a solution to reduce labour market imbalances.^Note 2 Some types of trades are occasionally perceived as particularly likely to reflect such imbalances, especially those that are in high demand in resource-based regions.

The issue of labour imbalance is also confounded by the fact that young adults—who are typically most likely to move—may be less inclined to choose a trades program than before. In 2011, 11% of workers aged 25 to 44 reported that their highest level of educational attainment was a registered apprenticeship certificate or other trades certificate or diploma, compared with 13% among those aged 45 to 64. Policy strategies are currently being developed to encourage students to consider a career in skilled trades through the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP).^Note 3

Using data from the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS), this study examines the migration patterns of a key group of skilled trades—‘infrastructure tradespersons’. In this article, infrastructure tradespersons are defined as post-secondary graduates whose major field of study was either in construction trades, mechanics and repair, precision production, or heavy equipment machinery/crane operation. Because mobility rates are significantly lower among older individuals, the study focuses on those who were aged 25 to 44 in 2011.

The first section of this paper examines whether infrastructure tradespersons have a different migration rate (within their province or to a new province) than people in other education groups. In other words, are tradespersons proportionately more likely to have migrated (between 2006 and 2011) than those who had other types of education credentials?

The second section examines the provincial migration patterns of infrastructure tradespersons and provides more information about provinces that gained (and lost) the greatest share of them between 2006 and 2011.

Migration rates are not necessarily higher among infrastructure tradespersons

With the large sample size of the NHS, it is possible to identify how people are distributed across fields of study within large education groups. Individuals with a certification in infrastructure trades can be defined as those who have both

1. reported that they had a registered apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma, a college diploma or a certificate below bachelor as their highest level of schooling; and
2. studied in one of the following fields: construction trades, mechanics and repair, precision production, or heavy equipment machinery/crane operation.

According to this definition, approximately 576,000 Canadians aged 25 to 44 were infrastructure tradespersons in 2011 (Table 1) and accounted for 7% of the overall population in this age group. Those who were trained in other trades numbered 521,000 and accounted for 6% of the population. Other education groups included those with a university degree (29%), other college, CEGEP or diploma below the bachelor level (26%), and a high school diploma or less (31%).

Table 1
Profile and migration status of the population aged 25 to 44 over the period from 2006 to 2011, by highest level of educational attainment
Table summary
This table displays the results of Profile and migration status of the population aged 25 to 44 over the period from 2006 to 2011 Profile, Migration status, Total population, Men, Employment rate, Median earnings (in 2010), Total migrants, Intraprovincial migrants and Interprovincial migrants, calculated using thousand, percentage and $ units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Profile				Migration status
	Total population	Men	Employment rate	Median earnings (in 2010)	Total migrants	Intraprovincial migrants	Interprovincial migrants
	thousand	percentage		$	percentage
Total population	8,164.7	49.0	81.4	38,900	13.3	8.5	4.8
Education
Less than high school	802.0	57.1	60.4	25,500	11.3	7.8	3.5
High school	1,751.1	53.7	76.7	32,000	11.8	7.5	4.3
Infrastructure trades	575.8	96.1	87.8	46,800	13.2	8.9	4.2
All other apprenticeship or trades certificates or diplomas	521.0	38.5	81.3	29,400	11.5	8.2	3.3
All other college, CEGEP or other certificates or diplomas below bachelor level	2,114.1	39.3	84.9	37,900	12.8	8.6	4.2
University degree	2,400.7	42.5	87.3	52,200	15.8	9.3	6.5
Total men	4,003.2	100.0	85.5	45,600	13.5	8.6	4.9
Education
Less than high school	458.1	100.0	68.6	31,300	11.3	7.8	3.5
High school	940.6	100.0	82.9	38,200	12.3	7.7	4.6
Infrastructure trades	553.5	100.0	88.3	47,700	13.0	8.8	4.2
All other apprenticeship or trades certificates or diplomas	200.5	100.0	86.2	39,200	12.8	8.9	3.9
All other college, CEGEP or other certificates or diplomas below bachelor level	829.3	100.0	89.6	48,000	13.3	8.9	4.4
University degree	1,021.2	100.0	90.6	61,100	16.4	9.4	7.0
Note: People who were not living in Canada in 2006 are excluded from the estimates. Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011.

The profile of tradespersons differed from people with other levels of educational attainment in a number of ways. Firstly, nearly all (96%) infrastructure tradespersons were men. This compared with 39% among those in other types of trades (e.g., cooks, hairstylists, truck and bus drivers, and administrative workers), 43% among those with a university degree, and 57% of those with less than a high school diploma.

Secondly, infrastructure tradespersons typically earned $46,800 in 2010. This compared with a median of $29,400 among other tradespersons, a median of $37,900 among other college graduates, and a median of $52,200 among university graduates. Among males, however, the difference between infrastructure and non-infrastructure tradespersons was relatively smaller, and infrastructure tradesmen had similar earnings to those who had a college education.

Thirdly, infrastructure tradespersons also enjoyed a relatively high employment rate (88%, compared with 81% among other tradespersons, 85% among those who had a college diploma, and 87% among university graduates). Among males only, the employment rate among infrastructure tradespersons was 88%, compared with 90% among those with a college diploma and 91% among those with a university degree.

What can be said about the migration patterns of infrastructure tradespersons? With the NHS, information about the location of residence can be compared with information collected about the place of residence five years earlier, in 2006. Respondents can thus be designated as ‘migrants’ if they lived in a different region or province in 2011 than in 2006 (See Data sources, methods and definitions). Migration rates over five years provide a useful indicator of longstanding migration patterns, but do not capture individuals who migrated in the intervening years.

According to this definition, 13% of all individuals aged 25 to 44 in 2011 had moved from where they lived in 2006—either to another region in the same province (9%) or to another province (5%). Infrastructure tradespersons had numbers close to the national average in 2011, as 13% (representing 76,000 individuals) had migrated from a different region five years earlier.

As other studies have previously shown,^Note 4 university graduates had the highest migration rate (16%). By contrast, individuals with other trades and those who had a high school degree or less had migration rates below 12%.

University graduates also had the highest rate of interprovincial migration in 2011 (7%). By contrast, 4% of infrastructure tradespersons lived in a different province five years earlier (about the same as those who had a high school degree). Interestingly, individuals with other trades had the lowest rate of interprovincial migration (3%).

Similar results were found when the sample was restricted to men, who make up the vast majority of people in infrastructure trades.  In 2011, 4% among men in infrastructure trades lived in a different province in 2006, compared with 5% of men with a high school diploma.^Note 5 In contrast, 7% of men aged 25 to 44 with a university degree in 2011 lived in a different province in 2006.

Residents of Atlantic provinces had higher rates of interprovincial migration

Life-cycle events have an impact on the probability of migrating. Specifically, the probability of migrating is relatively higher when individuals are about to enter the labour market, but lower in the presence of children.^Note 6 Migration rates also tend to be related to the financial and psychological costs of moving.^Note 7

Reflecting earlier findings for the general population,^Note 8 tradespersons who were younger and without children were the most likely to have migrated, either within their province or territory or to a new province or territory (Table 2). In 2011, 18% of infrastructure tradespersons aged 25 to 29 lived in a different region or province in 2006, compared with 9% in the 40-to-44 age group. Similarly, those without children were more likely to have migrated (15%, compared with 9% among those with children).

Table 2
Proportion of infrastructure tradespersons aged 25 to 44 in 2011 who lived in another region (intraprovincial migrants) or another province or territory (interprovincial migrants) in 2006, by sociodemographic characteristics
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of infrastructure tradespersons aged 25 to 44 in 2011 who lived in another region (intraprovincial migrants) or another province or territory (interprovincial migrants) in 2006 Infrastructure tradespersons, Total migrants, Intraprovincial and Interprovincial, calculated using percentage units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Infrastructure tradespersons
	Total migrants	Intraprovincial	Interprovincial
	percentage
Age group	13.2	8.9	4.2
25 to 29	18.0	12.3	5.8
30 to 34	14.8	10.1	4.7
35 to 39	11.9	8.1	3.8
40 to 44	8.6	5.7	2.9
Presence of children aged 6 and over
No	15.3	10.4	4.9
Yes	9.3	6.4	3.0
Residence (in 2006)
Newfoundland and Labrador	16.9	9.0	7.9
Prince Edward Island	11.1	1.3	9.8
Nova Scotia	15.2	6.3	8.9
New Brunswick	15.4	8.2	7.2
Quebec (mother tongue other than French)	7.4	3.2	4.2
Quebec (Francophones)	10.0	9.3	0.7
Ontario	11.9	8.4	3.5
Manitoba	14.1	8.2	5.9
Saskatchewan	16.9	11.9	5.0
Alberta	18.7	10.6	8.1
British Columbia	14.7	9.5	5.1
Territories	17.9	2.3	15.5
Place of birth
Lived outside birth province in 2006	25.1	8.9	16.2
Lived in birth province in 2006	11.7	9.6	2.2
Born outside Canada	8.1	4.6	3.5
CMAs and CAs versus other areas (in 2006)
Census metropolitan areas or Census agglomeration	12.4	8.1	4.3
All other areas	15.7	11.8	3.9
Note: People who were not living in Canada in 2006 are excluded from the estimates. Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011.

An important factor associated with interprovincial migration is whether infrastructure tradespersons lived in their province of birth in 2006. Among people who lived in their province of birth in 2006, 2% changed provinces between 2006 and 2011. This compared with a rate that was eight times higher (16%) among those who resided outside their province of birth in 2006.  

Residents of smaller provinces generally had higher rates of interprovincial migration. For example, in the Atlantic provinces, interprovincial migration rates varied between 7% and 10%. In contrast, 1% of Quebec Francophones were interprovincial migrants, compared with 4% of Quebec residents with a different mother tongue. In the other populous province—Ontario—the interprovincial rate was less than 4%. In the West, Alberta had relatively higher rates of interprovincial migration (8%). Alberta also had one of the highest rates of intraprovincial migration (11%), along with Saskatchewan (12%). As a result, Alberta had the highest overall migration rate (19%) of all provinces and territories in 2011.

Finally, infrastructure tradespersons who lived in rural areas and small population centres were more likely to have moved to another region within their province (12%) than those who lived in census agglomerations and census metropolitan areas (8%). This is as expected, as smaller areas sometimes lose population to closer, large urban centres.^Note 9 Interprovincial migration rates were relatively similar between residents of rural areas and small population centres, as well as CMA and CA residents (4%).

Alberta gained many tradespersons, but also lost many

Regional economic conditions are important factors in the decision to migrate. More particularly, if the expected benefits associated with migration (i.e., better prospective employment and earnings) exceed the potential costs of moving, it may encourage individuals to migrate. Income and unemployment gaps between provinces are thus associated with migration patterns.^Note 10

Recently, Alberta’s economic boom was a magnet for all types of migrants, and especially so for infrastructure tradespersons.  Of the 24,400 infrastructure tradespersons aged 25 to 44 who were interprovincial migrants between 2006 and 2011, 35% went to Alberta (Table 3). In comparison, 24% of interprovincial migrants with other trade certifications went to Alberta, and 23% of those who had a university degree did so. About 30% of people with less than a high school education and approximately 29% with a high school diploma went to Alberta. Ontario, the most populous province, was the province of residence of 11% of infrastructure trade migrants in 2011.

Table 3
Distribution of infrastructure tradespersons aged 25 to 44 in 2011 who lived in another province or territory in 2006 (interprovincial migrants), by place of residence in 2006 and place of residence in 2011
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution of infrastructure tradespersons aged 25 to 44 in 2011 who lived in another province or territory in 2006 (interprovincial migrants) Interprovincial migrants, Total, Less than high school, High school, Infrastructure trades, All other college, CEGEP or other certificates or diplomas below bachelor level and University degree, calculated using number and percentage units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Interprovincial migrants
	Total	Less than high school	High school	Infrastructure trades	All other apprenticeship or trades certificates or diplomas	All other college, CEGEP or other certificates or diplomas below bachelor level	University degree
	number
Total interprovincial migrants	389,370	28,100	75,500	24,400	16,950	87,700	156,660
	percentage
Residence in 2011
Newfoundland and Labrador	3.4	4.6	3.5	6.0	5.4	3.7	2.4
Prince Edward Island	0.9	1.1	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.2	0.9
Nova Scotia	5.7	4.7	5.6	6.5	5.4	6.0	5.6
New Brunswick	4.1	4.6	4.8	4.4	5.4	4.4	3.3
Quebec	6.6	5.7	5.3	4.4	9.3	5.6	7.9
Ontario	21.3	15.4	17.8	11.5	16.1	20.0	26.8
Manitoba	4.2	5.7	5.0	3.3	4.4	4.3	3.6
Saskatchewan	6.6	10.0	7.8	8.2	7.5	7.0	4.8
Alberta	26.4	30.2	29.0	35.1	24.4	26.7	23.1
British Columbia	19.3	16.7	19.0	18.4	19.9	19.4	19.8
Territories	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.1	1.6	1.8
Residence in 2006
Newfoundland and Labrador	2.7	2.8	2.4	4.1	3.0	2.9	2.5
Prince Edward Island	1.0	0.8	1.0	1.0	0.7	1.1	0.9
Nova Scotia	6.9	5.3	5.7	6.7	5.3	6.2	8.4
New Brunswick	4.3	3.5	4.4	3.9	3.7	4.7	4.4
Quebec	10.4	7.7	7.5	7.4	10.7	9.2	13.4
Ontario	26.2	23.8	24.5	23.1	21.8	26.4	28.2
Manitoba	5.2	5.7	5.8	4.2	5.9	4.8	5.2
Saskatchewan	4.5	5.8	4.9	3.8	4.8	3.9	4.5
Alberta	22.0	28.4	25.8	29.4	26.6	23.8	16.3
British Columbia	15.4	14.8	16.6	14.6	15.7	15.6	14.9
Territories	1.4	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.5	1.2
Note: People who were not living in Canada in 2006 are excluded from the estimates. Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011.

When those who resided in Alberta in 2006 are excluded from the interprovincial migrant population, one-half of infrastructure tradespersons (representing more than 8,500 individuals) reported that they lived in Alberta in 2011. This was the largest percentage of all education groups.

However, Alberta was also characterized by a relatively large outflow of interprovincial migrants. Of the 24,400 tradespersons who migrated to another province between 2006 and 2011, 29% came from Alberta—making it the top province not only in terms of in-migration, but also in terms of out-migration (bottom panel of Table 3).

One way to estimate the extent to which a province gained or lost population due to interprovincial migration is to calculate a migration ratio, which indicates how many individuals left a province (‘out-migrants’) for every 100 individuals entering the province (‘in-migrants’). In Alberta, the ratio was 84 out-migrants for every 100 in-migrants. The lowest ratio was in Saskatchewan, which had 47 out-migrants for every 100 in-migrants, and the migration ratio was also relatively lower in Newfoundland and Labrador (68 out-migrants for every 100 in-migrants). In contrast, the migration ratio was 201 out‑migrants for every 100 in-migrants in Ontario, the highest ratio of all provinces in this particular education group (Table 4).

Table 4
Migration ratios over the period from 2006 to 2011, by province or territory and highest level of educational attainment
Table summary
This table displays the results of Migration ratios over the period from 2006 to 2011 Total, Less than high school, High school, Infrastructure trades, All other college, CEGEP or other certificates or diplomas below bachelor level and University degree, calculated using migration ratio units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Total	Less than high school	High school	Infrastructure trades	All other apprenticeship or trades certificates or diplomas	All other college, CEGEP or other certificates or diplomas below bachelor level	University degree
	migration ratioNote 1
Provinces and territories
Newfoundland and Labrador	78	61	67	68	56	77	103
Prince Edward Island	104	72	130	134	69	92	109
Nova Scotia	122	112	102	103	97	103	150
New Brunswick	106	75	91	90	69	108	132
Quebec	158	136	140	170	115	163	169
Ontario	123	154	137	201	136	132	105
Manitoba	125	100	115	127	134	111	146
Saskatchewan	69	58	63	47	63	55	95
Alberta	83	94	89	84	109	89	71
British Columbia	80	89	88	79	79	80	75
Territories	88	122	111	113	158	94	65
Note 1. Number of people leaving the province or territory for every 100 people arriving from another province or territory. Return to note 1 referrer Note: People who were not living in Canada in 2006 are excluded from the estimates. Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011.

The migration ratios were also generally lower in Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia for other education groups.  Of note, Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba were the only provinces that had migration ratios of 100 and above in all educational groups.

More than one-third of interprovincial migrant tradespersons returned to their province of birth

Improving one’s employment opportunities can be a major contributing factor motivating interprovincial migration, but it is not the only one. Some, in fact, may move out of a desire to return home. In the NHS, information on the province of birth can be combined with variables on the location of residence to calculate the proportion of interprovincial migrants who are ‘returnees’ (going back to their province of birth).

According to this definition, 28% of all interprovincial migrants in 2011 were returnees. Among infrastructure tradespersons, the proportion was higher at 35%.

Such results masked differences across regions of residence in 2006—particularly between Alberta and the rest of the country. Among those who lived in Alberta in 2006 and had migrated out of the province in 2011, 60% had returned to their home province (Chart 1). This compared with 33% among British Columbia out-migrants and percentages varying between 16% and 25% among out-migrants from other provinces.

Description for Chart 1

It is also possible to examine the proportion of in-migrants who are returning home by province of residence in 2011, in order to provide another perspective on returnees.

For example, the vast majority (86%) of those who migrated to Newfoundland and Labrador were born in that province (Chart 2). The proportion of returnees was also relatively higher in Prince Edward Island (70%), Quebec (63%) and New Brunswick (58%).

Description for Chart 2

In contrast, the proportion of in-migrants who were born in their province of residence in 2011 was the lowest in the Alberta (11%) and in the territories (10%).^Note 11

Conclusion

Because some areas of the country may be facing labour shortages, studying the migration patterns of skilled individuals is important. Using data from the NHS, this article examined the migration patterns of individuals aged 25 to 44 who had a certification in construction trades, mechanics and repair, precision production, and heavy equipment machinery/crane operation. Of these “infrastructure tradespersons” in 2011, 13% lived in a different region five years earlier (in 2006). Within these migrants, 9% moved to another economic region within the same province and 4% moved to another province. Such rates, however, were not significantly different from other education groups. For instance, the migration rate was 11% among those with other types of trades, and 16% among university graduates over the same period. Alberta was a particularly strong magnet for infrastructure tradespersons: among those who lived outside of Alberta in 2006, about one-half moved to Alberta.

That said, a significant portion of infrastructure migrants were returnees (i.e. moved back to their province of birth). In 2011, more than one-third of infrastructure tradespersons who migrated over the period from 2006 to 2011 were returnees (compared with 28% for all interprovincial migrants). The proportion of returnees was particularly higher in Alberta, as 60% of out-migrants from this province returned to their province of birth. Hence, even if Alberta gained more infrastructure tradespersons than it lost, it was characterized by a large volume of entries and exits.

Martin Turcotte is a senior analyst in the Labour Statistics Division and Jeremy Weeks is an analyst in the Labour Statistics Division at Statistics Canada.

Notes