Insights on Canadian Society
The contribution of immigration to the size and ethnocultural diversity of future cohorts of seniors

by Yves Carrière, Laurent Martel, Jacques Légaré and Jean-François Picard

Release date: March 9, 2016

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Overview of the study

This article analyzes the impact of immigration on the size and ethnocultural composition of future cohorts of seniors in Canada, using data from the Population Estimates Program, the Population Projections Program and other sources of demographic data.

  • Among people born in Canada between 1937 and 1941, 19% did not live to the age of 65. Among those born between 1997 and 2011, the percentage of deaths by age 65 is projected to be approximately 6%, due to increased life expectancy.
  • Because of immigration, the population at age 65 of individuals born between 1937 and 1941 was 36% higher than the population level that would have been expected with mortality alone. If current immigration levels were to continue, this proportion could reach 73% for individuals born between 1997 and 2001 when they reach their 60s.
  • The contribution of immigration is expected to be lower among individuals born between 1957 and 1961 (during the baby-boom). At age 65, their projected population size may be only 28% higher than the size that would be expected with mortality alone.
  • At age 65, about 1 in 4 people belonging to the 1957 to 1961 cohort could be born abroad. By comparison, this proportion could be close to 1 in 2 for those born between 1997 and 2001.
  • At age 65, about 17% of people born between 1957 and 1961 could belong to a visible minority group. This proportion could rise to almost 50% for people born between 1997 and 2001 when they reach that age.

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Introduction

The aging of the population has recently accelerated in Canada. Since 2011, the number of people aged 65 and over increased by 4.0% per year on average, while the corresponding annual growth rate was 2.2% on average over the two previous decades. According to all scenarios included in Statistics Canada’s most recent population projections,Note 1 this number should continue to increase at an average rate of 3.5% over the next 20 years.

In large part, the aging of Canada’s population that will happen between now and 2031 is related to the fact that the baby-boom cohort (born between 1946 and 1965) is presently turning 65. The baby boom was followed by a significant drop in birth rates (the baby bust), as the number of births fell from a peak of 479,000 in 1959 to just over 343,000 in 1973. Such declines in the size of the cohorts at birth suggests that the population aging projected over the next decades is mainly related to the aging of baby boomers.

However, immigration helps to mitigate the differences in the size of the various cohorts between the ages of 0 and 65. In countries with sustained immigration such as Canada, this may have a significant impact on the size of certain cohorts.

In addition to having an effect on cohort size, immigration also contributes to the ethnocultural diversity of the population if the characteristics of immigrants are different from those of the host population.

The purpose of this article is to quantify the effect of immigration on the size of the various cohorts between the ages of 0 and 65, and to project the ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s senior population in the future. This study could therefore inform policies and programs regarding the behaviour of future seniors, particularly in relation to, for example, retirement or health care services and home support services. Understanding these trends is necessary for planning the services that could be important to Canada’s future senior population.

The results are based on various data sources that include Vital Statistics, statistics from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, and data from the Population Estimates Program and the Population Projections Program—including the Demosim microsimulation model (see Data sources, methods and definitions). The results shown in this study are coming from the medium growth scenario (or reference scenario). For each projection result, however, the results from the low and high growth scenarios are shown in a footnote at the end of the document in order to reflect the uncertainty related to any projection exercice.

Variation in the size of cohorts at birth

The number of births in Canada—and thus the size of cohorts at birth—has fluctuated considerably since 1926, particularly during the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s (Chart 1).

Chart 1  Number of births in Canada, 1926 to 2011

Description for Chart 1
Data table for Chart 1
  thousand
1926 239.9
1927 241.0
1928 243.4
1929 242.1
1930 250.1
1931 247.0
1932 242.5
1933 229.6
1934 228.0
1935 228.1
1936 227.7
1937 227.6
1938 236.8
1939 237.7
1940 252.3
1941 263.6
1942 281.1
1943 292.4
1944 293.5
1945 300.0
1946 342.8
1947 371.7
1948 358.9
1949 366.1
1950 372.0
1951 381.1
1952 403.8
1953 417.9
1954 436.2
1955 442.9
1956 450.7
1957 469.1
1958 470.1
1959 479.3
1960 478.6
1961 475.7
1962 469.7
1963 465.8
1964 452.9
1965 418.6
1966 387.7
1967 370.9
1968 364.3
1969 369.6
1970 372.0
1971 362.2
1972 347.3
1973 343.4
1974 345.6
1975 358.3
1976 359.3
1977 362.2
1978 358.4
1979 365.5
1980 369.7
1981 370.3
1982 373.1
1983 373.7
1984 377.0
1985 375.0
1986 372.4
1987 369.4
1988 375.7
1989 391.9
1990 404.7
1991 402.5
1992 398.6
1993 388.4
1994 385.1
1995 378.0
1996 366.2
1997 348.6
1998 342.4
1999 337.2
2000 327.9
2001 333.7
2002 328.8
2003 335.2
2004 337.1
2005 342.2
2006 354.6
2007 367.9
2008 377.9
2009 380.9
2010 377.2
2011 377.6
Source(s):
Statistics Canada, Vital Statistics, 1926 to 2011.

The size of the cohort of Canadians born between 1937 and 1941 was approximately 1.2 million at birth. It increased to more than 1.8 million births between 1947 and 1951, and then to nearly 2.4 million births between 1957 and 1961—the largest cohort observed during the period. In comparison, the size of the 1967 to 1971 cohort—corresponding to a period of declining birth rates in Canada—was significantly smaller, at approximately 1.8 million. The size of the 1997 to 2001 cohort (the most recent one studied) was even smaller, at 1.7 million—partly because of lower fertility around the turn of the century.Note 2

The large changes observed in the size of the various cohorts of people born during the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s can be related to the fact that, internationally, Canada experienced one of the most significant baby booms during the post-war years. During that period, Canada had one of the highest total fertility rate (number of children per woman) of all G8 countries.

The decline in birth rates that followed was also significant, as fertility fell from a record level of 3.94 children per woman in 1959 to 1.83 in 1974, only 15 years later.

The decrease in mortality slightly reduces the differences between cohorts

By definition, mortality has an influence on the size of cohorts between birth and age 65, by convention the age at which individuals are reaching their senior years. During the 20th century in Canada, however, mortality had less of an impact on recent cohorts (which were smaller in size). In other words, their size was less affected than earlier cohorts by the number of deaths occurring between ages 0 and 65.

This phenomenon can be illustrated with the survival curves of various cohorts obtained in the context of a closed population (i.e., with only mortality having an impact on their size) (Chart 2).Note 3

Chart 2 Estimated survival curves between birth and age 100 for native-born Canadians, various cohorts

Description for Chart 2
Data table for Chart 2
  1937 to 1941 cohort 1957 to 1961 cohort 1967 to 1971 cohort 1997 to 2001 cohort
0 to 4 1,108.0 2,233.2 1,744.3 1,682.3
1,087.7 2,218.7 1,737.0 1,680.2
1,083.8 2,216.4 1,735.6 1,679.9
1,081.3 2,214.7 1,734.6 1,679.6
1,079.3 2,213.3 1,733.7 1,679.4
5 to 9 1,077.9 2,212.0 1,732.9 1,679.3
1,076.6 2,210.9 1,732.2 1,679.1
1,075.6 2,209.9 1,731.6 1,678.9
1,074.7 2,209.0 1,731.1 1,678.7
1,074.0 2,208.1 1,730.6 1,678.6
10 to 14 1,073.2 2,207.2 1,730.1 1,678.4
1,072.5 2,206.3 1,729.5 1,678.2
1,071.8 2,205.3 1,729.0 1,675.3
1,071.1 2,204.1 1,728.3 1,675.0
1,070.4 2,202.4 1,727.5 1,674.7
15 to 19 1,069.5 2,200.4 1,726.5 1,674.2
1,068.6 2,198.3 1,725.3 1,673.7
1,067.5 2,195.7 1,723.8 1,673.1
1,066.4 2,193.2 1,722.4 1,672.4
1,065.2 2,190.5 1,720.9 1,671.7
20 to 24 1,064.0 2,188.1 1,719.5 1,671.0
1,062.8 2,185.8 1,718.2 1,670.2
1,061.6 2,183.9 1,716.8 1,669.5
1,060.4 2,182.0 1,715.6 1,668.8
1,059.2 2,180.3 1,714.4 1,668.1
25 to 29 1,058.0 2,178.5 1,713.0 1,667.5
1,056.9 2,176.7 1,711.8 1,666.8
1,055.8 2,174.9 1,710.7 1,666.2
1,054.6 2,173.2 1,709.5 1,665.5
1,053.4 2,171.3 1,708.2 1,664.8
30 to 34 1,052.1 2,169.2 1,707.0 1,664.2
1,050.8 2,167.2 1,705.8 1,663.4
1,049.5 2,165.0 1,704.5 1,662.7
1,048.0 2,162.5 1,703.1 1,661.9
1,046.5 2,160.1 1,701.7 1,661.0
35 to 39 1,044.8 2,157.4 1,700.3 1,660.2
1,043.2 2,154.8 1,698.7 1,659.3
1,041.4 2,152.2 1,697.0 1,658.3
1,039.5 2,149.4 1,695.2 1,657.3
1,037.5 2,146.4 1,693.3 1,656.2
40 to 44 1,035.5 2,143.5 1,691.2 1,655.1
1,033.3 2,140.3 1,689.0 1,653.9
1,031.0 2,136.9 1,686.7 1,652.6
1,028.6 2,133.1 1,684.3 1,651.3
1,026.0 2,129.3 1,681.7 1,649.9
45 to 49 1,023.1 2,125.0 1,679.0 1,648.4
1,020.0 2,120.2 1,676.0 1,646.8
1,016.7 2,115.1 1,672.9 1,645.1
1,013.2 2,109.6 1,669.5 1,643.3
1,009.4 2,103.6 1,665.9 1,641.4
50 to 54 1,005.3 2,097.7 1,662.1 1,639.4
1,000.9 2,091.4 1,658.0 1,637.2
996.2 2,084.3 1,653.5 1,634.9
991.1 2,076.9 1,648.8 1,632.5
985.6 2,069.0 1,643.8 1,629.9
55 to 59 979.6 2,060.6 1,638.4 1,627.1
973.2 2,051.5 1,632.7 1,624.1
966.4 2,041.9 1,626.5 1,620.9
959.2 2,031.6 1,620.0 1,617.5
951.5 2,020.6 1,613.0 1,613.9
60 to 64 943.2 2,008.9 1,605.5 1,610.0
934.5 1,996.4 1,597.5 1,605.9
925.1 1,983.1 1,589.0 1,601.4
915.2 1,968.9 1,579.9 1,596.6
904.7 1,953.7 1,570.2 1,591.5
65 to 69 893.8 1,937.6 1,559.8 1,586.0
882.3 1,920.4 1,548.7 1,580.1
869.7 1,902.1 1,536.8 1,573.7
856.6 1,882.6 1,524.1 1,566.9
843.0 1,861.8 1,510.5 1,559.5
70 to 74 827.5 1,839.6 1,495.9 1,551.4
811.1 1,815.8 1,480.2 1,542.6
793.2 1,790.3 1,463.2 1,533.0
775.3 1,762.8 1,444.8 1,522.3
756.3 1,733.2 1,424.7 1,510.4
75 to 79 736.2 1,701.2 1,402.9 1,497.2
715.0 1,666.6 1,379.0 1,482.2
692.5 1,628.9 1,352.8 1,465.4
668.6 1,588.0 1,323.9 1,446.2
643.3 1,543.4 1,292.0 1,424.3
80 to 84 616.5 1,494.7 1,256.7 1,399.1
588.0 1,441.5 1,217.5 1,370.0
557.9 1,383.2 1,174.0 1,336.3
526.0 1,319.5 1,125.7 1,297.1
492.4 1,249.8 1,071.9 1,251.3
85 to 89 457.1 1,173.8 1,012.2 1,197.8
420.1 1,091.1 946.0 1,135.2
381.5 1,001.7 873.0 1,062.2
341.8 906.4 793.9 979.2
301.5 806.8 710.0 887.4
90 to 94 261.3 705.0 623.2 788.9
222.1 603.7 536.0 686.9
185.0 506.4 451.4 585.5
150.8 415.3 371.8 487.8
120.0 332.6 298.9 396.7
95 to 99 93.2 259.8 234.3 314.4
70.6 197.7 178.9 242.5
52.0 146.3 132.8 181.7
37.2 105.1 95.7 132.2
25.8 73.2 66.8 93.1
100 to 104 17.4 49.4 45.2 63.5
Sources:
Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Estimates Program and Population Projections Program.

The results show that by age 65, 19% of those born between 1937 and 1941 had disappeared as a result of mortality only. This proportion, however, is projected to be 13% Note 4 for the 1957 to 1961 cohort, and could be no more than 6%Note 5 for those in the most recent cohort (individuals born between 1997 and 2001).

Furthermore, both the 1997 to 2001 cohort and the 1967 to 1971 cohort could be similar in size at age 60.Note 6 This is because mortality will have a larger impact on the latter between ages 0 and 60, despite having a larger size at birth.

The impact of immigration varies from one cohort to another

Aside from mortality, the other factor that has an influence on cohort size is immigration. This is particularly true in Canada, where immigration levels have been constant over the past 70 years.Note 7 Although the number of immigrants and the immigration rate have fluctuated a great deal since 1852, they have remained relatively high since the end of the Second World War (Chart 3). Between 1946 and 2014, Canada admitted an average of 172,000 immigrants per year, for an immigration rate of 7.2 per 1,000 residents.

Chart 3 Number of immigrants and immigration rate, 1852 to 2014

Description for Chart 3
Data table for Chart 3
  Number of immigrants Immigration rate
  number of immigrants (thousand) immigration rate (per 1,000 people)
1852 29.3 11.6
1853 29.5 11.4
1854 37.3 13.9
1855 25.3 9.2
1856 22.5 8.0
1857 33.9 11.6
1858 12.3 4.1
1859 6.3 2.1
1860 6.3 2.0
1861 13.6 4.2
1862 18.3 5.6
1863 21.0 6.3
1864 24.8 7.4
1865 19.0 5.6
1866 11.4 3.3
1867 10.7 3.0
1868 12.8 3.6
1869 18.6 5.2
1870 24.7 6.8
1871 27.8 7.5
1872 36.6 9.7
1873 50.1 13.1
1874 39.4 10.1
1875 27.4 6.9
1876 25.6 6.4
1877 27.1 6.7
1878 29.8 7.2
1879 40.5 9.7
1880 38.5 9.0
1881 48.0 11.1
1882 112.5 25.7
1883 133.6 30.2
1884 103.8 23.1
1885 79.2 17.4
1886 69.2 15.1
1887 84.5 18.3
1888 88.8 19.0
1889 91.6 19.4
1890 75.1 15.7
1891 82.2 17.0
1892 31.0 6.3
1893 29.6 6.0
1894 20.8 4.2
1895 18.8 3.7
1896 16.8 3.3
1897 21.7 4.2
1898 31.9 6.2
1899 44.5 8.5
1900 41.7 7.9
1901 55.7 10.4
1902 89.1 16.2
1903 138.7 24.5
1904 131.3 22.5
1905 141.5 23.6
1906 211.7 34.7
1907 272.4 42.5
1908 143.3 21.6
1909 173.7 25.5
1910 286.8 41.0
1911 331.3 46.0
1912 375.8 50.9
1913 400.9 52.5
1914 150.5 19.1
1915 36.7 4.6
1916 55.9 7.0
1917 72.9 9.0
1918 41.8 5.1
1919 107.7 13.0
1920 138.8 16.2
1921 91.7 10.4
1922 64.2 7.2
1923 133.7 14.8
1924 124.2 13.6
1925 84.9 9.1
1926 135.1 14.3
1927 158.9 16.5
1928 166.8 17.0
1929 165.0 16.5
1930 104.8 10.3
1931 27.5 2.7
1932 20.6 2.0
1933 14.4 1.4
1934 12.5 1.2
1935 11.3 1.0
1936 11.6 1.1
1937 15.1 1.4
1938 17.2 1.5
1939 17.0 1.5
1940 11.3 1.0
1941 9.3 0.8
1942 7.6 0.7
1943 8.5 0.7
1944 12.8 1.1
1945 22.7 1.9
1946 71.7 5.8
1947 64.1 5.1
1948 125.4 9.8
1949 95.2 7.1
1950 73.9 5.4
1951 194.4 13.9
1952 164.5 11.4
1953 168.9 11.4
1954 154.2 10.1
1955 109.9 7.0
1956 164.9 10.3
1957 282.2 17.0
1958 124.9 7.3
1959 106.9 6.1
1960 104.1 5.8
1961 71.7 3.9
1962 74.6 4.0
1963 93.2 4.9
1964 112.6 5.8
1965 146.8 7.5
1966 194.7 9.7
1967 222.9 10.9
1968 184.0 8.9
1969 161.5 7.7
1970 147.7 6.9
1971 121.9 5.6
1972 122.0 5.5
1973 184.2 8.2
1974 218.5 9.6
1975 187.9 8.1
1976 149.4 6.4
1977 114.9 4.8
1978 86.3 3.6
1979 112.1 4.6
1980 143.1 5.8
1981 128.6 5.2
1982 121.2 4.8
1983 89.2 3.5
1984 88.3 3.4
1985 84.3 3.3
1986 99.4 3.8
1987 152.1 5.8
1988 161.6 6.0
1989 191.6 7.0
1990 216.5 7.8
1991 232.8 8.3
1992 254.8 9.0
1993 256.6 8.9
1994 224.4 7.7
1995 212.9 7.3
1996 226.1 7.6
1997 216.0 7.2
1998 174.2 5.8
1999 190.0 6.2
2000 227.5 7.4
2001 250.6 8.1
2002 229.0 7.3
2003 221.3 7.0
2004 235.8 7.4
2005 262.2 8.1
2006 251.6 7.7
2007 236.8 7.2
2008 247.2 7.4
2009 252.2 7.5
2010 280.7 8.3
2011 248.7 7.2
2012 257.9 7.5
2013 259.0 7.4
2014 260.4 7.4
Sources:
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (Facts and Figures 2014); Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Estimates Program.

Since the end of the 1980s, immigration has nonetheless been characterized by higher levels (an average of over 235,000 immigrants per year) and less year-over-year variations. The extent to which immigration contributes to cohort size could therefore be different, depending on when a particular cohort reaches the age corresponding to higher immigration levels (around 30 years old in Canada).Note 8

For example, the first children of the baby boom—born between 1946 and 1956—turned 30 between 1976 and 1986, a period during which the number of immigrants admitted to Canada each year was among the lowest since 1946.

It is thus anticipated that the impact of immigration on the size of the baby-boom cohort between the ages of 0 and 65 will be smaller than for more recent cohorts. In other words, while the boomer cohorts were more numerous at birth than subsequent cohorts, the more recent cohorts could eventually catch up with them as they benefited more from immigration.

It is possible to examine the impact of mortality and immigration on changes in the size of four cohorts of the 20th century—those between 1937 and 1941 (before the baby boom); between 1957 and 1961 (peak of the baby boom); between 1967 and 1971 (during the period when birth rates were declining); and between 1997 and 2001 (the most recent cohort used in this study).

Among those born between 1937 and 1941, for instance, the size of the cohort at age 65 was 36% higher than what might have been expected had mortality been the only determining factor (Charts 4.1 to 4.4).

Chart 4.1 Change in the number of individuals born between 1937 and 1941, by age

Description for Chart 4.1
Data table for Chart 4.1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Change in the number of individuals born between 1937 and 1941. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), Survival curve , Observed size and Projected size, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age Survival curve Observed size Projected size
thousands
0 1,108.0 1,036.3 Note ...not applicable
1 1,087.7 1,050.5 Note ...not applicable
2 1,083.8 1,049.2 Note ...not applicable
3 1,081.3 1,052.3 Note ...not applicable
4 1,079.3 1,055.9 Note ...not applicable
5 1,077.9 1,063.6 Note ...not applicable
6 1,076.6 1,082.0 Note ...not applicable
7 1,075.6 1,094.9 Note ...not applicable
8 1,074.7 1,121.1 Note ...not applicable
9 1,074.0 1,138.6 Note ...not applicable
10 1,073.2 1,127.0 Note ...not applicable
11 1,072.5 1,125.2 Note ...not applicable
12 1,071.8 1,138.4 Note ...not applicable
13 1,071.1 1,146.2 Note ...not applicable
14 1,070.4 1,151.2 Note ...not applicable
15 1,069.5 1,150.3 Note ...not applicable
16 1,068.6 1,160.4 Note ...not applicable
17 1,067.5 1,181.4 Note ...not applicable
18 1,066.4 1,191.0 Note ...not applicable
19 1,065.2 1,188.9 Note ...not applicable
20 1,064.0 1,180.7 Note ...not applicable
21 1,062.8 1,180.5 Note ...not applicable
22 1,061.6 1,188.8 Note ...not applicable
23 1,060.4 1,198.2 Note ...not applicable
24 1,059.2 1,209.1 Note ...not applicable
25 1,058.0 1,224.7 Note ...not applicable
26 1,056.9 1,245.9 Note ...not applicable
27 1,055.8 1,264.4 Note ...not applicable
28 1,054.6 1,276.9 Note ...not applicable
29 1,053.4 1,285.5 Note ...not applicable
30 1,052.1 1,309.7 Note ...not applicable
31 1,050.8 1,328.1 Note ...not applicable
32 1,049.5 1,328.3 Note ...not applicable
33 1,048.0 1,331.1 Note ...not applicable
34 1,046.5 1,334.6 Note ...not applicable
35 1,044.8 1,337.1 Note ...not applicable
36 1,043.2 1,339.2 Note ...not applicable
37 1,041.4 1,341.4 Note ...not applicable
38 1,039.5 1,342.2 Note ...not applicable
39 1,037.5 1,344.3 Note ...not applicable
40 1,035.5 1,348.0 Note ...not applicable
41 1,033.3 1,346.9 Note ...not applicable
42 1,031.0 1,340.8 Note ...not applicable
43 1,028.6 1,333.6 Note ...not applicable
44 1,026.0 1,326.2 Note ...not applicable
45 1,023.1 1,320.0 Note ...not applicable
46 1,020.0 1,317.8 Note ...not applicable
47 1,016.7 1,318.3 Note ...not applicable
48 1,013.2 1,320.0 Note ...not applicable
49 1,009.4 1,321.3 Note ...not applicable
50 1,005.3 1,321.9 Note ...not applicable
51 1,000.9 1,321.0 Note ...not applicable
52 996.2 1,318.4 Note ...not applicable
53 991.1 1,316.5 Note ...not applicable
54 985.6 1,314.2 Note ...not applicable
55 979.6 1,311.2 Note ...not applicable
56 973.2 1,306.3 Note ...not applicable
57 966.4 1,298.9 Note ...not applicable
58 959.2 1,289.8 Note ...not applicable
59 951.5 1,280.1 Note ...not applicable
60 943.2 1,271.4 Note ...not applicable
61 934.5 1,263.0 Note ...not applicable
62 925.1 1,253.0 Note ...not applicable
63 915.2 1,241.5 Note ...not applicable
64 904.7 1,228.4 Note ...not applicable
65 893.8 1,214.9 Note ...not applicable
66 882.3 1,200.9 Note ...not applicable
67 869.7 1,185.7 Note ...not applicable
68 856.6 1,169.5 Note ...not applicable
69 843.0 Note ...not applicable 1,152.3
70 827.5 Note ...not applicable 1,134.4
71 811.1 Note ...not applicable 1,114.8
72 793.2 Note ...not applicable 1,093.8
73 775.3 Note ...not applicable 1,070.9
74 756.3 Note ...not applicable 1,044.5
75 736.2 Note ...not applicable 1,014.8
76 715.0 Note ...not applicable 983.4
77 692.5 Note ...not applicable 950.8
78 668.6 Note ...not applicable 916.1
79 643.3 Note ...not applicable 879.2
80 616.5 Note ...not applicable 840.1
81 588.0 Note ...not applicable 798.6
82 557.9 Note ...not applicable 754.8
83 526.0 Note ...not applicable 708.5
84 492.4 Note ...not applicable 659.9
85 457.1 Note ...not applicable 609.0
86 420.1 Note ...not applicable 555.9
87 381.5 Note ...not applicable 501.1
88 341.8 Note ...not applicable 445.2
89 301.5 Note ...not applicable 389.1
90 261.3 Note ...not applicable 334.0
91 222.1 Note ...not applicable 281.1
92 185.0 Note ...not applicable 231.8
93 150.8 Note ...not applicable 187.0
94 120.0 Note ...not applicable 147.4
95 93.2 Note ...not applicable 113.4
96 70.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
97 52.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
98 37.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
99 25.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
100 17.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable

Chart 4.2 Change in the number of individuals born between 1957 and 1961, by age

Description for Chart 4.2
Data table for Chart 4.2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Change in the number of individuals born between 1957 and 1961. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), Survival curve , Observed size and Projected size, calculated using thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age Survival curve Observed size Projected size
thousand
0 2,233.2 2,239.1 Note ...not applicable
1 2,218.7 2,239.2 Note ...not applicable
2 2,216.4 2,246.7 Note ...not applicable
3 2,214.7 2,255.9 Note ...not applicable
4 2,213.3 2,264.4 Note ...not applicable
5 2,212.0 2,278.2 Note ...not applicable
6 2,210.9 2,290.5 Note ...not applicable
7 2,209.9 2,294.3 Note ...not applicable
8 2,209.0 2,296.9 Note ...not applicable
9 2,208.1 2,298.0 Note ...not applicable
10 2,207.2 2,307.5 Note ...not applicable
11 2,206.3 2,321.0 Note ...not applicable
12 2,205.3 2,327.9 Note ...not applicable
13 2,204.1 2,337.6 Note ...not applicable
14 2,202.4 2,351.7 Note ...not applicable
15 2,200.4 2,368.6 Note ...not applicable
16 2,198.3 2,384.3 Note ...not applicable
17 2,195.7 2,397.3 Note ...not applicable
18 2,193.2 2,410.4 Note ...not applicable
19 2,190.5 2,429.7 Note ...not applicable
20 2,188.1 2,450.2 Note ...not applicable
21 2,185.8 2,462.2 Note ...not applicable
22 2,183.9 2,465.1 Note ...not applicable
23 2,182.0 2,463.3 Note ...not applicable
24 2,180.3 2,460.3 Note ...not applicable
25 2,178.5 2,459.2 Note ...not applicable
26 2,176.7 2,471.4 Note ...not applicable
27 2174.9 2,490.5 Note ...not applicable
28 2,173.2 2,518.8 Note ...not applicable
29 2,171.3 2,546.3 Note ...not applicable
30 2,169.2 2,559.3 Note ...not applicable
31 2,167.2 2,566.9 Note ...not applicable
32 2,165.0 2,572.1 Note ...not applicable
33 2,162.5 2,579.8 Note ...not applicable
34 2,160.1 2,587.8 Note ...not applicable
35 2,157.4 2,595.1 Note ...not applicable
36 2,154.8 2,606.2 Note ...not applicable
37 2,152.2 2,614.9 Note ...not applicable
38 2149.4 2,619.3 Note ...not applicable
39 2,146.4 2,623.7 Note ...not applicable
40 2,143.5 2,629.1 Note ...not applicable
41 2,140.3 2,636.8 Note ...not applicable
42 2,136.9 2,641.7 Note ...not applicable
43 2,133.1 2,643.6 Note ...not applicable
44 2,129.3 2,645.7 Note ...not applicable
45 2,125.0 2,647.0 Note ...not applicable
46 2,120.2 2,651.5 Note ...not applicable
47 2,115.1 2,657.0 Note ...not applicable
48 2,109.6 2,661.6 Note ...not applicable
49 2,103.6 2,664.2 Note ...not applicable
50 2,097.7 2,663.1 2,663.1
51 2,091.4 Note ...not applicable 2,660.5
52 2,084.3 Note ...not applicable 2,655.0
53 2,076.9 Note ...not applicable 2,647.9
54 2,069.0 Note ...not applicable 2,638.4
55 2,060.6 Note ...not applicable 2,629.2
56 2,051.5 Note ...not applicable 2,619.5
57 2,041.9 Note ...not applicable 2,608.1
58 2,031.6 Note ...not applicable 2,596.0
59 2,020.6 Note ...not applicable 2,583.1
60 2008.9 Note ...not applicable 2,569.4
61 1,996.4 Note ...not applicable 2,554.7
62 1,983.1 Note ...not applicable 2,539.0
63 1,968.9 Note ...not applicable 2,522.0
64 1,953.7 Note ...not applicable 2,503.5
65 1,937.6 Note ...not applicable 2,483.6
66 1,920.4 Note ...not applicable 2,462.2
67 1,902.1 Note ...not applicable 2,439.1
68 1,882.6 Note ...not applicable 2,414.4
69 1,861.8 Note ...not applicable 2,387.9
70 1,839.6 Note ...not applicable 2,359.2
71 1,815.8 Note ...not applicable 2,328.2
72 1,790.3 Note ...not applicable 2,294.6
73 1,762.8 Note ...not applicable 2,258.1
74 1,733.2 Note ...not applicable 2,218.4
75 1,701.2 Note ...not applicable 2,175.2
76 1,666.6 Note ...not applicable 2,128.2
77 1,628.9 Note ...not applicable 2,076.9
78 1,588.0 Note ...not applicable 2,021.0
79 1,543.4 Note ...not applicable 1,960.0
80 1,494.7 Note ...not applicable 1,893.3
81 1,441.5 Note ...not applicable 1,820.4
82 1,383.2 Note ...not applicable 1,740.9
83 1,319.5 Note ...not applicable 1,654.0
84 1,249.8 Note ...not applicable 1,559.4
85 1,173.8 Note ...not applicable 1,456.7
86 1,091.1 Note ...not applicable 1,345.5
87 1,001.7 Note ...not applicable 1,226.5
88 906.4 Note ...not applicable 1,101.2
89 806.8 Note ...not applicable 971.9
90 705.0 Note ...not applicable 841.9
91 603.7 Note ...not applicable 714.9
92 506.4 Note ...not applicable 594.5
93 415.3 Note ...not applicable 483.5
94 332.6 Note ...not applicable 384.1
95 259.8 Note ...not applicable 297.6
96 197.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
97 146.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
98 105.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
99 73.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
100 49.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
Chart 4.3 Change in the number of individuals born between 1967 and 1971, by age

 

Description for Chart 4.3
Data table for Chart 4.3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Change in the number of individuals born between 1967 and 1971. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), Survival curve , Observed size and Projected size, calculated using thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age Survival curve Observed size Projected size
thousand
0 1,744.3 1,857.9 Note ...not applicable
1 1,737.0 1,867.3 Note ...not applicable
2 1,735.6 1,875.7 Note ...not applicable
3 1,734.6 1,887.8 Note ...not applicable
4 1,733.7 1,904.5 Note ...not applicable
5 1,732.9 1,921.7 Note ...not applicable
6 1,732.2 1,932.8 Note ...not applicable
7 1,731.6 1,937.4 Note ...not applicable
8 1,731.1 1,939.1 Note ...not applicable
9 1,730.6 1,943.8 Note ...not applicable
10 1,730.1 1,951.6 Note ...not applicable
11 1,729.5 1,961.6 Note ...not applicable
12 1,729.0 1,970.1 Note ...not applicable
13 1,728.3 1,978.5 Note ...not applicable
14 1,727.5 1,988.6 Note ...not applicable
15 1,726.5 2,001.6 Note ...not applicable
16 1,725.3 2,016.5 Note ...not applicable
17 1,723.8 2,032.0 Note ...not applicable
18 1,722.4 2,058.4 Note ...not applicable
19 1,720.9 2,088.9 Note ...not applicable
20 1,719.5 2,103.1 Note ...not applicable
21 1,718.2 2,114.7 Note ...not applicable
22 1,716.8 2,128.3 Note ...not applicable
23 1,715.6 2,140.8 Note ...not applicable
24 1,714.4 2,153.4 Note ...not applicable
25 1,713.0 2,166.1 Note ...not applicable
26 1,711.8 2,182.2 Note ...not applicable
27 1,710.7 2,194.8 Note ...not applicable
28 1,709.5 2,207.3 Note ...not applicable
29 1,708.2 2,224.7 Note ...not applicable
30 1,707.0 2,247.5 Note ...not applicable
31 1,705.8 2,272.8 Note ...not applicable
32 1,704.5 2,291.4 Note ...not applicable
33 1,703.1 2,305.6 Note ...not applicable
34 1,701.7 2,320.4 Note ...not applicable
35 1,700.3 2,334.9 Note ...not applicable
36 1,698.7 2,349.5 Note ...not applicable
37 1,697.0 2,362.8 Note ...not applicable
38 1,695.2 2,376.6 Note ...not applicable
39 1,693.3 2,387.4 Note ...not applicable
40 1,691.2 Note ...not applicable 2,394.8
41 1,689.0 Note ...not applicable 2,405.2
42 1,686.7 Note ...not applicable 2,415.0
43 1,684.3 Note ...not applicable 2,421.8
44 1,681.7 Note ...not applicable 2,424.0
45 1,679.0 Note ...not applicable 2,429.6
46 1,676.0 Note ...not applicable 2,436.5
47 1,672.9 Note ...not applicable 2,438.1
48 1,669.5 Note ...not applicable 2,438.1
49 1,665.9 Note ...not applicable 2,436.7
50 1,662.1 Note ...not applicable 2,434.2
51 1,658.0 Note ...not applicable 2,430.6
52 1,653.5 Note ...not applicable 2,426.6
53 1,648.8 Note ...not applicable 2,421.6
54 1,643.8 Note ...not applicable 2,415.8
55 1,638.4 Note ...not applicable 2,409.6
56 1,632.7 Note ...not applicable 2,402.7
57 1,626.5 Note ...not applicable 2,395.2
58 1,620.0 Note ...not applicable 2,387.3
59 1,613.0 Note ...not applicable 2,379.0
60 1,605.5 Note ...not applicable 2,370.0
61 1,597.5 Note ...not applicable 2,360.4
62 1,589.0 Note ...not applicable 2,349.9
63 1,579.9 Note ...not applicable 2,338.3
64 1,570.2 Note ...not applicable 2,325.6
65 1,559.8 Note ...not applicable 2,311.7
66 1,548.7 Note ...not applicable 2,296.5
67 1,536.8 Note ...not applicable 2,280.0
68 1,524.1 Note ...not applicable 2,262.2
69 1,510.5 Note ...not applicable 2,242.8
70 1,495.9 Note ...not applicable 2,221.6
71 1,480.2 Note ...not applicable 2,198.4
72 1,463.2 Note ...not applicable 2,172.8
73 1,444.8 Note ...not applicable 2,144.7
74 1,424.7 Note ...not applicable 2,113.7
75 1,402.9 Note ...not applicable 2,079.6
76 1,379.0 Note ...not applicable 2,041.9
77 1,352.8 Note ...not applicable 2,000.3
78 1,323.9 Note ...not applicable 1,954.4
79 1,292.0 Note ...not applicable 1,903.4
80 1,256.7 Note ...not applicable 1,847.0
81 1,217.5 Note ...not applicable 1,784.3
82 1,174.0 Note ...not applicable 1,714.8
83 1,125.7 Note ...not applicable 1,637.6
84 1,071.9 Note ...not applicable 1,552.0
85 1,012.2 Note ...not applicable 1,457.4
86 946.0 Note ...not applicable 1,353.2
87 873.0 Note ...not applicable 1,239.5
88 793.9 Note ...not applicable 1,118.1
89 710.0 Note ...not applicable 991.3
90 623.2 Note ...not applicable 862.2
91 536.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
92 451.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
93 371.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
94 298.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
95 234.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
96 178.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
97 132.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
98 95.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
99 66.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
100 45.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable

Chart 4.4 Change in the number of individuals born between 1997 and 2001, by age

Description for Chart 4.4
Data table for Chart 4.4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Change in the number of individuals born between 1997 and 2001. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), Survival curve , Observed size and Projected size, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age Survival curve Observed size Projected size
thousands
0 1,682.3 1,774.6 Note ...not applicable
1 1,680.2 1,795.1 Note ...not applicable
2 1,679.9 1,808.5 Note ...not applicable
3 1,679.6 1,819.6 Note ...not applicable
4 1,679.4 1,831.6 Note ...not applicable
5 1,679.3 1,844.9 Note ...not applicable
6 1,679.1 1,859.9 Note ...not applicable
7 1,678.9 1,879.8 Note ...not applicable
8 1,678.7 1,899.7 Note ...not applicable
9 1,678.6 1,919.2 Note ...not applicable
10 1,678.4 1,938.9 1,938.9
11 1,678.2 Note ...not applicable 1,957.1
12 1,675.3 Note ...not applicable 1,975.8
13 1,675.0 Note ...not applicable 1,998.5
14 1,674.7 Note ...not applicable 2,031.5
15 1,674.2 Note ...not applicable 2,076.0
16 1,673.7 Note ...not applicable 2,121.6
17 1,673.1 Note ...not applicable 2,170.8
18 1,672.4 Note ...not applicable 2,219.8
19 1,671.7 Note ...not applicable 2,266.0
20 1,671.0 Note ...not applicable 2,301.1
21 1,670.2 Note ...not applicable 2,328.3
22 1,669.5 Note ...not applicable 2,350.9
23 1,668.8 Note ...not applicable 2,370.3
24 1,668.1 Note ...not applicable 2,385.6
25 1,667.5 Note ...not applicable 2,402.2
26 1,666.8 Note ...not applicable 2,422.0
27 1,666.2 Note ...not applicable 2,444.9
28 1,665.5 Note ...not applicable 2,469.5
29 1,664.8 Note ...not applicable 2,495.1
30 1,664.2 Note ...not applicable 2,520.2
31 1,663.4 Note ...not applicable 2,544.4
32 1,662.7 Note ...not applicable 2,567.3
33 1,661.9 Note ...not applicable 2,589.8
34 1,661.0 Note ...not applicable 2,611.8
35 1,660.2 Note ...not applicable 2,632.9
36 1,659.3 Note ...not applicable 2,653.7
37 1,658.3 Note ...not applicable 2,674.0
38 1,657.3 Note ...not applicable 2,693.0
39 1,656.2 Note ...not applicable 2,710.8
40 1,655.1 Note ...not applicable 2,727.1
41 1,653.9 Note ...not applicable 2,741.7
42 1,652.6 Note ...not applicable 2,754.4
43 1,651.3 Note ...not applicable 2,765.9
44 1,649.9 Note ...not applicable 2,776.1
45 1,648.4 Note ...not applicable 2,784.8
46 1,646.8 Note ...not applicable 2,792.1
47 1,645.1 Note ...not applicable 2,797.8
48 1,643.3 Note ...not applicable 2,801.9
49 1,641.4 Note ...not applicable 2,804.6
50 1,639.4 Note ...not applicable 2,806.2
51 1,637.2 Note ...not applicable 2,806.9
52 1,634.9 Note ...not applicable 2,807.1
53 1,632.5 Note ...not applicable 2,806.2
54 1,629.9 Note ...not applicable 2,804.8
55 1,627.1 Note ...not applicable 2,803.0
56 1,624.1 Note ...not applicable 2,800.6
57 1,620.9 Note ...not applicable 2,797.8
58 1,617.5 Note ...not applicable 2,795.0
59 1,613.9 Note ...not applicable 2,791.9
60 1,610.0 Note ...not applicable 2,788.4
61 1,605.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
62 1,601.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
63 1,596.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
64 1,591.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
65 1,586.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
66 1,580.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
67 1,573.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
68 1,566.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
69 1,559.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
70 1,551.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
71 1,542.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
72 1,533.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
73 1,522.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
74 1,510.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
75 1,497.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
76 1,482.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
77 1,465.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
78 1,446.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
79 1,424.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
80 1,399.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
81 1,370.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
82 1,336.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
83 1,297.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
84 1,251.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
85 1,197.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
86 1,135.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
87 1,062.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
88 979.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
89 887.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
90 788.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
91 686.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
92 585.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
93 487.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
94 396.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
95 314.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
96 242.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
97 181.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
98 132.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
99 93.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
100 63.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable

The impact of immigration on size clearly varied across cohorts. In general, the impact was smaller for older cohorts, and larger for recent cohorts.

For the 1967 to 1971 cohort, the size at age 65 is projected to be 48%Note 9 higher than the size that would be expected with mortality as the only factor. This compared with only 28%Note 10 for the largest cohort—those born between 1957 and 1961. For the most recent cohort—people born between 1997 and 2001—the size could be 73%Note 11 higher if current immigration trends were to continue in the coming years.

The observed and projected sizes of the various cohorts discussed above can be examined in a chart (Chart 5), providing a snapshot of the changing older population in the coming decades.

Chart 5 Observed and projected sizes of various cohorts, by age

Description for Chart 5
Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Observed and projected sizes of various cohorts. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 1937 to 1941 cohort - Observed sizes, 1937 to 1941 cohort - Projected sizes, 1957 to 1961 cohort - Observed sizes, 1957 to 1961 cohort - Projected sizes, 1967 to 1971 cohort - Observed sizes, 1967 to 1971 cohort - Projected sizes, 1997 to 2001 cohort - Observed sizes and 1997 to 2001 cohort - Projected sizes, calculated using thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age 1937 to 1941 cohort - Observed sizes 1937 to 1941 cohort - Projected sizes 1957 to 1961 cohort - Observed sizes 1957 to 1961 cohort - Projected sizes 1967 to 1971 cohort - Observed sizes 1967 to 1971 cohort - Projected sizes 1997 to 2001 cohort - Observed sizes 1997 to 2001 cohort - Projected sizes
thousand
0 1,036.3 Note ...not applicable 2,239.1 Note ...not applicable 1,857.9 Note ...not applicable 1,774.6 Note ...not applicable
1 1,050.5 Note ...not applicable 2,239.2 Note ...not applicable 1,867.3 Note ...not applicable 1,795.1 Note ...not applicable
2 1,049.2 Note ...not applicable 2,246.7 Note ...not applicable 1,875.7 Note ...not applicable 1,808.5 Note ...not applicable
3 1,052.3 Note ...not applicable 2,255.9 Note ...not applicable 1,887.8 Note ...not applicable 1,819.6 Note ...not applicable
4 1,055.9 Note ...not applicable 2,264.4 Note ...not applicable 1,904.5 Note ...not applicable 1,831.6 Note ...not applicable
5 1,063.6 Note ...not applicable 2,278.2 Note ...not applicable 1,921.7 Note ...not applicable 1,844.9 Note ...not applicable
6 1,082.0 Note ...not applicable 2,290.5 Note ...not applicable 1,932.8 Note ...not applicable 1,859.9 Note ...not applicable
7 1,094.9 Note ...not applicable 2,294.3 Note ...not applicable 1,937.4 Note ...not applicable 1,879.8 Note ...not applicable
8 1,121.1 Note ...not applicable 2,296.9 Note ...not applicable 1,939.1 Note ...not applicable 1,899.7 Note ...not applicable
9 1,138.6 Note ...not applicable 2,298.0 Note ...not applicable 1,943.8 Note ...not applicable 1,919.2 Note ...not applicable
10 1,127.0 Note ...not applicable 2,307.5 Note ...not applicable 1,951.6 Note ...not applicable 1,938.9 1,938.9
11 1,125.2 Note ...not applicable 2,321.0 Note ...not applicable 1,961.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 1,957.1
12 1,138.4 Note ...not applicable 2,327.9 Note ...not applicable 1,970.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 1,975.8
13 1,146.2 Note ...not applicable 2,337.6 Note ...not applicable 1,978.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 1,998.5
14 1,151.2 Note ...not applicable 2,351.7 Note ...not applicable 1,988.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,031.5
15 1,150.3 Note ...not applicable 2,368.6 Note ...not applicable 2,001.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,076.0
16 1,160.4 Note ...not applicable 2,384.3 Note ...not applicable 2,016.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,121.6
17 1,181.4 Note ...not applicable 2,397.3 Note ...not applicable 2,032.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,170.8
18 1,191.0 Note ...not applicable 2,410.4 Note ...not applicable 2,058.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,219.8
19 1,188.9 Note ...not applicable 2,429.7 Note ...not applicable 2,088.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,266.0
20 1,180.7 Note ...not applicable 2,450.2 Note ...not applicable 2,103.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,301.1
21 1,180.5 Note ...not applicable 2,462.2 Note ...not applicable 2,114.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,328.3
22 1,188.8 Note ...not applicable 2,465.1 Note ...not applicable 2,128.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,350.9
23 1,198.2 Note ...not applicable 2,463.3 Note ...not applicable 2,140.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,370.3
24 1,209.1 Note ...not applicable 2,460.3 Note ...not applicable 2,153.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,385.6
25 1,224.7 Note ...not applicable 2,459.2 Note ...not applicable 2,166.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,402.2
26 1,245.9 Note ...not applicable 2,471.4 Note ...not applicable 2,182.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,422.0
27 1,264.4 Note ...not applicable 2,490.5 Note ...not applicable 2,194.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,444.9
28 1,276.9 Note ...not applicable 2,518.8 Note ...not applicable 2,207.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,469.5
29 1,285.5 Note ...not applicable 2,546.3 Note ...not applicable 2,224.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,495.1
30 1,309.7 Note ...not applicable 2,559.3 Note ...not applicable 2,247.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,520.2
31 1,328.1 Note ...not applicable 2,566.9 Note ...not applicable 2,272.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,544.4
32 1,328.3 Note ...not applicable 2,572.1 Note ...not applicable 2,291.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,567.3
33 1,331.1 Note ...not applicable 2,579.8 Note ...not applicable 2,305.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,589.8
34 1,334.6 Note ...not applicable 2,587.8 Note ...not applicable 2,320.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,611.8
35 1,337.1 Note ...not applicable 2,595.1 Note ...not applicable 2,334.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,632.9
36 1,339.2 Note ...not applicable 2,606.2 Note ...not applicable 2,349.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,653.7
37 1,341.4 Note ...not applicable 2,614.9 Note ...not applicable 2,362.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,674.0
38 1,342.2 Note ...not applicable 2,619.3 Note ...not applicable 2,376.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,693.0
39 1,344.3 Note ...not applicable 2,623.7 Note ...not applicable 2,387.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,710.8
40 1,348.0 Note ...not applicable 2,629.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,394.8 Note ...not applicable 2,727.1
41 1,346.9 Note ...not applicable 2,636.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,405.2 Note ...not applicable 2,741.7
42 1,340.8 Note ...not applicable 2,641.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,415.0 Note ...not applicable 2,754.4
43 1,333.6 Note ...not applicable 2,643.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,421.8 Note ...not applicable 2,765.9
44 1,326.2 Note ...not applicable 2,645.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,424.0 Note ...not applicable 2,776.1
45 1,320.0 Note ...not applicable 2,647.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,429.6 Note ...not applicable 2,784.8
46 1,317.8 Note ...not applicable 2,651.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,436.5 Note ...not applicable 2,792.1
47 1,318.3 Note ...not applicable 2,657.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,438.1 Note ...not applicable 2,797.8
48 1,320.0 Note ...not applicable 2,661.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,438.1 Note ...not applicable 2,801.9
49 1,321.3 Note ...not applicable 2,664.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,436.7 Note ...not applicable 2,804.6
50 1,321.9 Note ...not applicable 2,663.1 2,663.1 Note ...not applicable 2,434.2 Note ...not applicable 2,806.2
51 1,321.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,660.5 Note ...not applicable 2,430.6 Note ...not applicable 2,806.9
52 1,318.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,655.0 Note ...not applicable 2,426.6 Note ...not applicable 2,807.1
53 1,316.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,647.9 Note ...not applicable 2,421.6 Note ...not applicable 2,806.2
54 1,314.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,638.4 Note ...not applicable 2,415.8 Note ...not applicable 2,804.8
55 1,311.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,629.2 Note ...not applicable 2,409.6 Note ...not applicable 2,803.0
56 1,306.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,619.5 Note ...not applicable 2,402.7 Note ...not applicable 2,800.6
57 1,298.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,608.1 Note ...not applicable 2,395.2 Note ...not applicable 2,797.8
58 1,289.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,596.0 Note ...not applicable 2,387.3 Note ...not applicable 2,795.0
59 1,280.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,583.1 Note ...not applicable 2,379.0 Note ...not applicable 2,791.9
60 1,271.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,569.4 Note ...not applicable 2,370.0 Note ...not applicable 2,788.4
61 1,263.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,554.7 Note ...not applicable 2,360.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
62 1,253.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,539.0 Note ...not applicable 2,349.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
63 1,241.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,522.0 Note ...not applicable 2,338.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
64 1,228.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,503.5 Note ...not applicable 2,325.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
65 1,214.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,483.6 Note ...not applicable 2,311.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
66 1,200.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,462.2 Note ...not applicable 2,296.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
67 1,185.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,439.1 Note ...not applicable 2,280.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
68 1,169.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable 2,414.4 Note ...not applicable 2,262.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
69 Note ...not applicable 1,152.3 Note ...not applicable 2,387.9 Note ...not applicable 2,242.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
70 Note ...not applicable 1,134.4 Note ...not applicable 2,359.2 Note ...not applicable 2,221.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
71 Note ...not applicable 1,114.8 Note ...not applicable 2,328.2 Note ...not applicable 2,198.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
72 Note ...not applicable 1,093.8 Note ...not applicable 2,294.6 Note ...not applicable 2,172.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
73 Note ...not applicable 1,070.9 Note ...not applicable 2,258.1 Note ...not applicable 2,144.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
74 Note ...not applicable 1,044.5 Note ...not applicable 2,218.4 Note ...not applicable 2,113.7 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
75 Note ...not applicable 1,014.8 Note ...not applicable 2,175.2 Note ...not applicable 2,079.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
76 Note ...not applicable 983.4 Note ...not applicable 2,128.2 Note ...not applicable 2,041.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
77 Note ...not applicable 950.8 Note ...not applicable 2,076.9 Note ...not applicable 2,000.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
78 Note ...not applicable 916.1 Note ...not applicable 2,021.0 Note ...not applicable 1,954.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
79 Note ...not applicable 879.2 Note ...not applicable 1,960.0 Note ...not applicable 1,903.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
80 Note ...not applicable 840.1 Note ...not applicable 1,893.3 Note ...not applicable 1,847.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
81 Note ...not applicable 798.6 Note ...not applicable 1,820.4 Note ...not applicable 1,784.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
82 Note ...not applicable 754.8 Note ...not applicable 1,740.9 Note ...not applicable 1,714.8 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
83 Note ...not applicable 708.5 Note ...not applicable 1,654.0 Note ...not applicable 1,637.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
84 Note ...not applicable 659.9 Note ...not applicable 1,559.4 Note ...not applicable 1,552.0 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
85 Note ...not applicable 609.0 Note ...not applicable 1,456.7 Note ...not applicable 1,457.4 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
86 Note ...not applicable 555.9 Note ...not applicable 1,345.5 Note ...not applicable 1,353.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
87 Note ...not applicable 501.1 Note ...not applicable 1,226.5 Note ...not applicable 1,239.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
88 Note ...not applicable 445.2 Note ...not applicable 1,101.2 Note ...not applicable 1,118.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
89 Note ...not applicable 389.1 Note ...not applicable 971.9 Note ...not applicable 991.3 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
90 Note ...not applicable 334.0 Note ...not applicable 841.9 Note ...not applicable 862.2 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
91 Note ...not applicable 281.1 Note ...not applicable 714.9 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
92 Note ...not applicable 231.8 Note ...not applicable 594.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
93 Note ...not applicable 187.0 Note ...not applicable 483.5 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
94 Note ...not applicable 147.4 Note ...not applicable 384.1 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable
95 Note ...not applicable 113.4 Note ...not applicable 297.6 Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable Note ...not applicable

The results indicate that even though the size of the 1997 to 2001 cohort was significantly smaller than the 1957 to 1961 (baby-boom) cohort at birth, it is anticipated that the size of the two cohorts could be similar by age 35 (according to all population growth scenarios).

In addition, when individuals in the most recent cohort (1997 to 2001) will turn 60, their numbers could exceed the projected number of individuals born between 1957 and 1961 at the same age (according to all scenarios). This suggests that the growth of the older population could continue even after the period in which the baby-boomers turn 65. People born between 1997 and 2001 will turn 65 in the mid-2060s.

Canada’s older population to become increasingly diverse

The different impact of immigration on the size of the various cohorts at ages 0 to 65 could also mean that successive cohorts of seniors will not share the same characteristics.

The proportion of foreign-born people should remain fairly similar between the 1947 to 1951 cohort (currently in their mid-60s) and the 1957 to 1961 cohort (according to all scenarios). In both cases, individuals born outside of Canada should make up slightly more than one-quarter of the population of their respective cohorts at age 65 (Chart 6).Note 12 In other words, the more numerous baby-boom cohorts could be less diversified.

Chart 6 Projected proportion of foreign-born people, various cohorts at age 65

Description for Chart 6
Data table for Chart 6
Cohort percent
1947 to 1951
(2012 to 2016)
28.2
1957 to 1961
(2022 to 2026)
26.2
1967 to 1971
(2032 to 2036)
35.6
1977 to 1981
(2042 to 2046)
38.6
1987 to 1991
(2052 to 2056)
40.7
1997 to 2001
(2062 to 2066)
46.8
Source:
Statistics Canada, Demography Division, special tabulations from Demosim, reference scenario.

If, however, the next decades continue to be characterized by present day trends in immigration levels and composition, close to 47%Note 13 of the 1997 to 2001 cohort could be composed of individuals born outside of Canada when they will turn 60.

This proportion could be at least 36% (or just over 1 in 3 people)Note 14 among those born between 1967 and 1971—a period characterized by declining birth rates. When the people from this generation will turn 65 in the 2030s, the ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s older population should grow. This could also translate into major changes in the birthplace of people born outside of Canada (Chart 7).

Chart 7 Projected distribution of various cohorts at age 65, by place of birth

Description for Chart 7
Data table for Chart 7
Cohort Canada Europe The Americas Asia Africa
1947 to 1951
(2012 to 2016)
71.8 12.6 4.3 9.8 1.2
1957 to 1961
(2022 to 2026)
73.8 7.4 4.3 12.6 1.7
1967 to 1971
(2032 to 2036)
64.4 7.4 5.6 19.1 3.1
1977 to 1981
(2042 to 2046)
61.4 6.6 5.3 22.5 3.9
1987 to 1991
(2052 to 2056)
59.3 6.6 5.1 24.3 4.4
1997 to 2001
(2062 to 2066)
53.2 7.0 5.8 28.5 5.2
Source:
Statistics Canada, Demography Division, special tabulations from Demosim, reference scenario.

The proportion of individuals aged 65 who were born in Europe should decrease rapidly, from the older cohorts up to the 1957 to 1961 cohort. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 65 who were born in Asia should increase significantly, starting with the 1957 to 1961 cohort (according to all scenarios).

The 1947 to 1951 cohort could therefore be the last (at age 65) with a higher proportion of European-born than Asian-born individuals. By contrast, in the 1967 to 1971 cohort and in subsequent cohorts as well, Asia would represent the most common continent of birth for people born outside Canada and aged 65 (according to all scenarios).

This transition from immigration that is primarily European in origin to immigration that is mainly from Asia will contribute to another transformation of the sociodemographic characteristics of the older population in the future—specifically, the share of those who belong to a visible minority group.

The proportion of individuals who belong to a visible minority group at age 65 could increase only marginally between the 1947 to 1951 and the 1957 to 1961 cohorts (from 13% to 17%)Note 15, because these two baby-boom cohorts have been less influenced by immigration (Chart 8).

Chart 8 Projected proportion of people belonging to a visible minority group, various cohorts at age 65

Description for Chart 8
Data table for Chart 8
Cohort percent
1947 to 1951
(2012 to 2016)
13.3
1957 to 1961
(2022 to 2026)
17.0
1967 to 1971
(2032 to 2036)
26.5
1977 to 1981
(2042 to 2046)
33.0
1987 to 1991
(2052 to 2056)
36.5
1997 to 2001
(2062 to 2066)
44.4
Source:
Statistics Canada, Demography Division, special tabulations from Demosim, reference scenario.

In comparison, when the 1967 to 1971 cohort will turn 65, this proportion could increase quickly and could reach 1 in 4 within this cohort (26%)Note 16 and possibly even close to 1 in 2 (44%)Note 17 for the most recent cohort (people born between 1997 and 2001).

Conclusion

The results presented in this article show that in a country with a sustained level of immigration, the size of various cohorts can vary considerably between ages 0 and 65.

It is true that population aging will accelerate until 2031, as the larger baby-boom cohorts will reach 65. Despite having a smaller size at birth, however, younger cohorts will also contribute to the aging of the population in the future, because the size of these cohorts will be sustained by immigration and by a lower mortality.

With more people born aboard, the ethnocultural characteristics of the more recent cohorts at age 65 will differ from the characteristics of older cohorts, thereby contributing to a significant increase in ethnocultural diversity within Canada’s older population during the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s.

However, by 2030, the ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s older population is projected to change little; the proportion of people born abroad could decrease slightly, while the proportion belonging to a visible minority group could increase only slightly because a significant proportion of baby boomers (who are about to turn 65) were born in Canada. In addition, these cohorts have benefited less from the sustained immigration levels observed in Canada since the end of the 1980s.

These changes in the profile of Canada’s older population could have many implications for public policy and programs aimed at seniors. The needs as well as the lifestyles and consumption patterns of future cohorts of seniors may be very different from those of today. For example, the care provided to dependent seniors by family members or by the formal system could change. Compared with native-born Canadians, some people from various ethnocultural groups could have different traditions and expectations towards their family network once they become older, particularly if they lose their independence. These trends could also have an impact on, for example, the transition from working life to retirement, income levels at retirement, the passing on of family wealth, intergenerational cohabitation, the assistance that seniors provide to their grandchildren, and leisure and travel habits.

Laurent Martel is Chief of the Demographic Analysis and Cohort-Component Projections Section in Statistics Canada’s Demography Division. Yves Carrière and Jacques Légaré are professors in the Department of demography at University of Montréal, and Jean-François Picard is a master’s student at University of Montréal. A preliminary version of this article was presented at the conference of the Association internationale des démographes de langue française in 2014.

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Data sources, methods and definitions

Data sources

This article is based on a number of data sources. The data on births since 1926 are from Vital Statistics. The data on the number of immigrants admitted to Canada since 1852 are from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Finally, two different series of population projections were used since they complement each other.

First, the most recent Population Projections for Canada (2013-2063), Provinces and Territories (2013-2038) (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-520) were used to assess future trends related to the size of the cohorts studied in this paper.

Second, custom tabulations derived from the microsimulation projection model Demosim were used to project the future ethnocultural composition of the cohorts examined in this paper.

For each projection exercise carried out at Statistics Canada, many scenarios are defined to reflect the uncertainty inherent in any attempt to project the future. In this paper, three scenarios were used. In the case of the population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, the scenarios M1 (medium growth), L (low growth) and H (high growth) were used and are documented in the publication cited above. The low and high growth scenarios differ from the median growth scenario because they suggest a lower or higher fertility level, mortality and immigration rate.

In the case of the custom tabulations from Demosim, three scenarios were also used and extended to year 2065: the reference scenario, the low growth scenario, and the high growth scenario as defined in the document Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-551). Readers can consult this publication to get more information about these scenarios or the underlying methodology related to the Demosim projection model.

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