Statistics Canada methodology  

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For health regions in all provinces/territories except for Alberta and British Columbia, the method is that of Statistics Canada, described below. These estimates are based on census data and on population estimates by census division (CD) produced by Demography Division.

• Population universe

The population included in these estimates is based on the 1996 and 2001 Census of Canada. The universe, therefore, corresponds to the census universe, which includes Canadian citizens and landed immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada (or abroad on a Canadian Forces base, attached to a diplomatic mission or aboard merchant vessels) and non-permanent residents. For a complete description of the census universe, refer to the 2001 Census Dictionary, Statistics Canada Catalogue no 92-378-XPE.
Census data are adjusted to take into account net census undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves. Components of population change occurring between census day and July 1, 1996 or 2001 were also taken into account.

• Method for deriving demographic estimates by health regions

Population estimates at the census division (CD) level are produced annually by Demography Division, using the component method, which accounts for changes in the number of births and deaths, as well as intra-provincial, inter-provincial and international migration. The CD population estimates are prorated to the provincial population estimates.
Demographic estimates by health region are derived from these estimates using the following steps:
Calculation of conversion factors:
Health Statistics Division has created a file linking dissemination areas (DAs), census subdivisions (CSDs) and census divisions (CDs) for each health region.

The 2001 Census population by CDs ( DAs or CSDs in case of split CDs) was adjusted for late changes in geography and for partially enumerated Indian reserves to ensure DAs added up to the CD.
In cases where health regions split CDs, the proportion of population in each CD split is used to derive 'conversion factors' in order to allocate the CD level estimate to the appropriate health region.
Application of conversion factors to CDdemographic estimates:
Conversion factors were applied to CD population estimates for 1996 to 2001 allowing conversion of CD population estimates into HR population estimates. The same approach used to obtain the total population estimates was used to establish age and sex estimates by HR.

• Evaluation of the method

To assess the quality of demographic estimates by HR, two evaluations were performed. First, an estimate was produced for July 1, 2001 with a postcensal CD demographic estimate based on the 2001 Census which was compared with the 2001 Census counts. This comparison indicated that the conversion factors were providing results comparable with the census counts by HR.
Second, the same method was also used to generate estimates for 2001 by HR from a postcensal CDestimate based on the 1996 Census. The results were compared with the actual 2001 counts as derived from the 2001 Census, thereby allowing an evaluation of the accuracy of the method over a five-year period. The results indicated that the methodology adequately accounted for the demographic changes.
For more information on the method used to produce health region or CD estimates, contact Stephane Gilbert of the Demography Division of Statistics Canada at (613) 951-9233 or e-mail stephane.gilbert@statcan.gc.ca.