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Spatial distribution of crime
Police-reported crime is not distributed randomly within the boundaries of the City of Saskatoon. The downtown area and the central neighbourhoods of Riversdale and Pleasant Hill, located on the west side of the South Saskatchewan River, accounted for large portions of all types of crime (Map 3, Map 4 and Map 5). To a lesser degree, the Confederation shopping area and the commercial strips on Idylwyld Drive, 8th Street and 33rd Street, also represented crime hotspots. Findings from other research suggest that this pattern of crime distribution is relatively stable over time. For example, Kitchen (2006) reported that in 2003 the crime hotspots were located in the city’s western area, and especially its core.
Map 3
Density of police-reported violent crime incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
Map 4
Density of police-reported property crime incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
Map 5
Density of other police-reported Criminal Code incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
The broader police-reported crime incident categories (violent crime, property crime and others) include types of crimes that differ with respect to their spatial distribution For example, a neighbourhood where mischief incidents are frequently reported is not necessarily going to also experience frequent reporting of shoplifting incidents. However, both of these types of crimes are included in the same broader category of property offences. For this reason, it is important to have an understanding of the spatial distribution of more precise categories in order to better understand the environmental circumstances that influence crime. The analyses below concentrate on the types of crime that were reported in over 1,000 incidents and make up over 5% of the total geocoded crime incidents:1 assault, motor vehicle theft, mischief, break and enter, other thefts (excluding motor vehicle theft and shoplifting) and shoplifting.
The spatial distribution of assaults (Map 6) is very similar to that of violent incidents, which is explained by the fact that two‑thirds of incidents involving violence include at least one assault. These incidents mainly occurred in the city’s western section: the downtown area and the neighbourhoods bordering it to the west. Some commercial locations also have significant concentrations of this type of crime.
Map 6
Density of police-reported assault incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
Motor vehicle theft incidents show a similar spatial structure (Map 7): a high concentration in the downtown area and in the Riversdale and Pleasant Hill neighbourhoods, and moderate concentrations in the commercial areas. Motor vehicle thefts were also much more frequent in the western part of the city.
Map 7
Density of police-reported motor vehicle theft incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
Mischief (Map 8) and break and enter incidents (Map 9) follow relatively similar patterns of spatial distribution. However, they generally occurred much more often in residential areas, which appeared to be “warm spots” for this type of crime. Commercial areas are the other focal points for this type of crime.
Map 8
Density of police-reported mischief incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
Map 9
Density of police-reported break and enter incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
Incidents involving theft (excluding motor vehicles and shoplifting) show a slightly different spatial distribution than previously observed incidents (Map 10). The main hotspots were the downtown area and the Confederation shopping area. The Riversdale and Pleasant Hill neighbourhoods also appeared to be hotspots but the concentration was much lower than for the types of crimes previously discussed. The other high‑incident areas are the commercial locations. Residential areas experienced substantially fewer incidents than the commercial locations.
Map 10
Density of police-reported other theft incidents (excluding motor vehicle theft and shoplifting), City of Saskatoon, 2001
Lastly, shoplifting incidents are particularly concentrated in areas of significant commercial activity (Map 11). More than half of the shoplifting incidents were reported in the Confederation shopping area, in the downtown area or on 8th Street. The other hotspots correspond to the other commercial areas.
Map 11
Density of police-reported shoplifting incidents, City of Saskatoon, 2001
Text box 2
Crime rates
The preceding descriptions were based on counts of crime incidents. They identified crime hotspots, locations where there are high concentrations of crime.
It is not surprising that high crime areas are generally located where there is intense human activity. In contrast, few crimes are reported in areas where few people live or congregate.
To better understand the spatial organization of crime, it is appropriate to consider the spatial distribution of the population. To this end, counts of crime incidents are related to the at‑risk population using the following equation:
Crime rate = number of crimes ÷ population at risk
The crime rate measures the number of crimes per member of the population at risk. This spreads out the impact of the population over the volume of crime. For example, if we compare the number of crimes reported, Toronto (272,025) has almost ten times more crimes than Saskatoon (29,875) in 2006. However, if we compare the number of crimes per resident of these two metropolitan areas, the inhabitants of Saskatoon (12,209 crimes per 100,000 inhabitants) were much more at risk than the residents of Toronto (5,020 crimes per 100,000 inhabitants).
Measuring the at‑risk population is simple when the spatial units compared are countries, provinces or metropolitan regions. The population of these entities is relatively stable over time so that the number of inhabitants accurately represents the real activity, regardless of the time, day or season.
Measuring the population at risk is more difficult in neighbourhoods. Residents of cities move regularly from one neighbourhood to another, often within the same day. In this context, the population counted at the place of residence is not representative of the comings, goings and gatherings that define the complexity of cities.
For example, the population surveyed at place of residence is not very high in commercial locations and employment hubs. However, these locations are sites of intense human activity and therefore they bring together the conditions favourable to crime: potential victims and aggressors. The descriptions in the previous section revealed that the downtown area and several commercial areas account for much more crime than most of the residential neighbourhoods.
This means that when neighbourhoods are compared, the population at risk must be measured as the ambient population, that is, the population that may be in that location at all times of the day (Andresen, 2006). The Canadian Census of Population provides an accurate measure of the population on the basis of residence and workplace location. In earlier analyses of the spatial distribution of crime in cities conducted by Statistics Canada (Fitzgerald et al., 2004; Savoie et al., 2005; Wallace et al., 2005; Savoie, 2008), the ambient population was measured as the sum of these two populations.
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