Table 6
Regression models (all variables) for violent and
property crime rates, city of Toronto census tracts, 2006
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Violent crime | Property crime | |
---|---|---|
number | ||
Number of incidents | 26,040 | 75,304 |
percent | ||
Explanatory power 1 | 66.3 | 51.0 |
regression coefficients (b) | ||
Socio-economic characteristics | ||
University graduates | -0.162*** | … |
No high school diploma | … | 0.165** |
Single-parent families | 0.193*** | 0.121* |
Low-income households | 0.125* | … |
Ethno-cultural characteristics | ||
Recent immigrants | -0.205*** | -0.200*** |
Ethno-cultural diversity | 0.069* | … |
Demographic characteristics | ||
Children | … | … |
Elderly people | -0.109*** | -0.108*** |
Young men | … | … |
Urban characteristics | ||
Single-detached houses | -0.089* | … |
Renters | 0.153*** | 0.121* |
Did not move | … | -0.177** |
Age of buildings | … | 0.187*** |
Major repairs | 0.158*** | … |
Subway or train station | 0.160** | 0.203** |
Economic activity | ||
Commercial activity | 0.203*** | 0.471*** |
Manufacturing jobs | -0.113** | -0.118** |
Office jobs | -0.203*** | -0.224*** |
Bars | 0.0763* | 0.080* |
Spatial lag 1 | 0.373*** | 0.304*** |
not applicable (variables excluded from
the model because they are not significant [p<0.05])
Significantly associated with dependent variable
p<0.05
Significantly associated with dependent variable
p<0.01
Significantly associated with dependent variable
p<0.001
Data represent the squared correlation coefficients
between observed and predicted values, a measure that is related to the coefficient
of determination (R2). See "Spatial autocorrelation and regression"
in the Methodology section for more information on autoregressive spatial
models.
Note(s):
Based on 524 census tracts. Regression models include intercept.
Population at risk includes residents and workers.
Source(s):
Statistics Canada, Incident-based Uniform Crime Reporting Survey,
geocoded database, 2006 and 2006 Census.
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